It's NYRA game to lose again!

Less than a week from now, the New York Racing Association begins it premier season of racing on the big stage with the opening of Belmont Park. Not to take away from Aqueduct and their winter inner-track meet, but Belmont Park and Saratoga are the meat and potatoes of NYRA's money making year. Great weather, turf wagering and top notch horses rule the roost from May until October. With the beginning of top notch racing in New York, comes good closure for the association. A bright future that has finally been made clear by the State of New York, giving full reign to NYRA and it's racing product.

One of the items in this year's late state budget was the turnover of thoroughbred racing back to NYRA without any major conditions, thus putting it back into private hands. It's been many year's since instability has been the norm for the entity that runs thoroughbred racing in the Empire State. The agreement by state lawmakers and the governor will allow NYRA to have a 17 member board to oversee operations. Eight will be chosen by the current executive board in place, two by the governor's office, two from both the senate and assembly, plus current NYRA Chief-Officer; Chris Kay. The final two members are from the New York Thoroughbred Horsemens Association and New York Breeders Inc. Finally the long, embattled time for the association should come to an end and stability to racing in New York.

For the first time in over a decade, the New York Racing Association can see a clear path to the future. It's no longer haunted by certain state mandates in their operation procedures. Many strides have been made since 2002 with improvements in racing safety and operations that in the past were riddled with scandal. Being more transparent with their day to day operations and a new business model has propelled them from a questionable organization to a top notch business company. Changes in the way thoroughbred racing was presented and an emphasis on improving the product to the public were key factors on returning racing to NYRA. Saratoga played a big part in the changes with a more fan favored approach. The creation of the wagering portal; NYRA Bets also expanded the racing product across the country. In a state where it's tough to get things done, NYRA succeeded and was granted full control of thoroughbred racing again. With the future bright and sound, maybe NYRA could lure the Breeder's Cup World Championships back to New York. It's been over 15 years and it's time to have the greatest two days of racing back in the Big Apple!

The 2017 Kentucky Derby prep trail came to an end last Saturday just where it left off last Fall in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Classic Empire proved best in the Arkansas Derby and likely favoritism the First Saturday in May. After a prep trail of disappointments and favorites getting beat early on, Classic Empire changed all that with a sharp victory after an eventful three year old season. He will try to maintain those sharp, classy three year old runners that have dominated the derby the past few years. He'll try to be the fifth straight morning line favorite to attempt to repeat as Kentucky Derby winner. Some still may have doubts but on paper, Classic Empire is the most accomplished horse and is peaking at the right time in my opinion!

Will the real, CLASSIC EMPIRE step forward?

We've reached the final major prep on this year's Kentucky Derby trail and not a moment too soon! It's been a year where logical favorites have gone to the wayside. Last weekend, Irish War Cry redeemed his bad effort in the Fountain of Youth Stakes with a sharp going away effort after stalking in the Wood Memorial. Meanwhile, the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland was upset with the maiden; Irap winning over the best Derby prep field so far this season. Then on the west coast, in the wide open Santa Anita Derby had an old favorite also redeem himself with victory as Gormley bounced back from his non-effort in the San Felipe a few weeks back. One prep race left, one last chance for a runner to gain those important points to make the Derby field and one chance for the two year old champion of last year to redeem himself.

When the dust settled last Fall, Classic Empire won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile and the championship in January. He has had one start this year, a lack luster third as the 1-2 favorite in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. But then the bottom fell out on this talented son of Pioneer of the Nile. After that race, it was revealed he had a foot abscess, forcing him to miss his next start. Then there were issues with him during his workouts and refusing to go to the track. It was determined he had back issues that could have been the blame for his actions. He left Gulfstream Park, relocated to a farm in Ocala and he has rebounded with improved works. Shipping to Oaklawn Park in Arkansas, he has shown his two year old form and it's all systems go for today.

But, he'll need a top effort because he is on the borderline of making the Derby field. Currently he has 32 points which is currently 21st on the list. If he cannot have a top four finish, he may be on the outside looking in the First Saturday in May. It's likely he'll make the field even with a sub par effort, but his trainer Mark Casse said without a solid top three finish, he'll skip the race. But with the uncertainty along the Kentucky Derby prep trail so far this year, there is bound to be one horse to get it right and win when he is suppose to. I feel that Classic Empire, the morning line favorite for the Arkansas Derby will do that today. And all bets are off for a longshot winning in three weeks, since Classic Empire is the BEST horse left in the very deep and confusing crop of three year old Derby hopefuls.

Like I said, I've been a big fan of Classic Empire since his victory last Fall and his effort today hinges on me possibly cashing some Kentucky Derby future wagers on him on May 6th. One Liner I thought was his main competition in the Arkansas Derby, but Todd Pletcher has pulled from the Kentucky Derby trail because of poor workout efforts and he's not racing today. So, Classic Empire looks the horse to beat in this field of twelve runners. My play for the runner-up spot is a price and the runner up in the Sunland Derby; Conquest Mo Money. He held second with a big move and has already run the mile and a eighth distance of today's race. After these two; horses like Malagacy, Untrapped and Petrov figure to get a piece and also be Kentucky starting runners with good efforts today. The play for the Arkansas Derby is : Classic Empire (#2) with Conquest Mo Money (#11) and Malagacy (#12) - Untrapped (#9) - Petrov (#4) in the third and fourth spots.

SUPER SPRING SATURDAY STAKES ~ Aqueduct - Keeneland - Santa Anita

We've reached the "meat and potatoes" of the prep races on the Kentucky Derby trail today with three crucial events in New York, Kentucky and California. Nearly a dozen runners from the top 25 contenders will try to gain points and get a spot in the starting gate the First Saturday in May. Last weekend, Todd Pletcher added his sixth runner to the mix with Always Dreaming winning the Florida Derby and at the Fairgrounds; Girvin won the Louisiana Derby and became the only two time prep winner this year. The Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes and Santa Anita Derby, all a mile and eighth will determine the next three major players.

The Wood Memorial (AQU 10th ~ 5:52 post) is first up with eight runners entered. The last Wood Memorial winner to repeat in the Derby was Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000. In fact, the last in the money runner from this race to get the roses was Funny Cide in 2003. A prep race with little effect on the Derby in recent years has three main players; Cloud Computing (2nd in the Gotham) Irish War Cry (Fountain of Youth winner) and Battalion Runner, a highly regard Todd Pletcher trainee. The later, needs points to gain entry to the Derby with at least a top three finish. Battalion Runner is facing stakes competition for the first time, but some regard him as Pletcher's best of six runners. Cloud Computing is lightly raced with only his third career start but has the Apollo curse as being unraced as a two year old. I'm leaning toward a winner over the track here last Fall going this distance. Mo Town (#2) was no factor as the favorite in the Risen Star Stakes coming off his two year old campaign layoff. Winner of the Remsen Stakes here last Fall, his 6-1 morning line odds look real appealing. Battalion Runner (#3) is my second choice and gets a real class test here (I have him in the final Derby future pool at 26-1). The numbers for the Wood : 2-3-7-8.

The Bluegrass Stakes (KEE 10th ~ 6:17 post) has come up the strongest of the prep races this year, even though there are only seven runners entered. Four of the seven entered could be the favorite post time at Churchill in a few weeks. The longest gap exists for winners of this race, winning again in the Kentucky Derby. The last was Strike the Gold in 1991, 26 years ago. I've been a huge fan of Practical Joke (#7) ever since his maiden victory at Saratoga last summer. His trainer Chad Brown could have stayed in Florida and raced last weekend or shipped to New York today. But he chose this spot for the son of Into Mischief, he is my top choice. For second, Tapwrit (#4) has come into his own off his last two races at Tampa Bay. Once again, he could have waited until the Derby to race again because he currently has enough points to get in (54 pts) but is entered today. My selections here are; 7-4-2-3.

The Santa Anita Derby (SA 8th ~ 6:30 post) has had the most consistent winners once again winning five weeks later in the derby (California Chrome & I'll Have Another) most recently. But this year's edition with 13 entered in the most wide open and full field in many years. Bob Baffert would have had the favorite in Mastery if he didn't get hurt. While he has two runners entered today, once again I'll lean toward the runners with the most experience during the derby prep races this year. Even though his post is a killer, Royal Mo (#13) is my top selection. Back class and speed, if he can negotiate the outside and get position, he could be a steal at his 10-1 morning line odds with Gary Stevens aboard. My runner-up pick is Iliad (#9) second best behind Mastery in the San Felipe first time going two turns. My play in this wide open event is : 13-9-6-5.

Gulf coast swing ~ week #1 of the final prep races for Kentucky Derby trail '17

We've come down to the final three weeks of prep races for this year's Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown trail. It's a "Traffic Light" series in my opinion, three weeks with seven races where horses will continue to the First Saturday in May "green" , remain in a holding pattern along the Triple Crown "yellow" or leave the trail all together "red". It starts today with the "Gulf coast swing" where we have the Louisiana Derby at the Fairgrounds and the Florida Derby at Gulfstream. Both are mile and an eight prep races and mark the first two entries that will get the green light for May 6th.

First up is the Louisiana Derby (FG 11th) grade II event with a field of nine entered. Risen Star winner - Girvin (#8) tries to make it two in a row after a solid win at 8-1. Risen Star also-rans; Local Hero (#3) and Guest Suite (#6) return with new shooter contenders - Patch (#1), Senior Investment (#4) and Monaco (#5). Todd Pletcher has had a strong hand this year on the Triple Crown trail and today his two recent maiden winners get the call here for me, Patch and Monaco. Both are lightly raced and figure here versus this group. The three horses from the Risen Star Stakes you can't dismiss here and figure to be the ones to beat; Girvin, Local Hero and Guest Suite. I'll use those three below the Pletcher duo. The numbers for the Louisiana Derby (FG 11th) : 5/1 - 8/3/6.

The Florida Derby (GP 14th) has the number one rated three year old from my list; Gunnevera (#11) who gets the far outside post. Winner of the Fountain of Youth Stakes in nice style, he'll have to overcome his draw. His running style helps things and is the definite horse to beat here. State of Honor (#1) just held second after leading the Tampa Bay Derby in his last start at 9-1. He gets blinkers OFF and draws the favorable inside with his speed. These two are my top selections. Underneath, the other two speeds - Always Dreaming (#4) trained by Todd Pletcher and Three Rules (#10) figure, along with new shooter Impressive Edge (#8) who stretches out after a impressive victory at seven furlongs. Another Pletcher runner; Battalion Runner (#8) who is a contender here but will scratch and contest either the Wood Memorial next week at Aqueduct or more likely the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn in two weeks. The numbers for the Florida Derby (GP 14th) : 11/1 - 8/10/4.

Last week; Thunder Snow, a Godolphin runner stamped himself a place in the starting gate the First Saturday in May with a hard fought victory in the UAE Derby. His 100 points with the win, moves him to the top of the point standings. On the other hand; at Turfway Park in the Spiral Stakes; 24-1 longshot - Fast and Accurate got a quick 50 points with a win, but is NOT a Triple Crown nominated runner. The Sunland Derby last Sunday gave Steve Asmussen another runner in Hence at 10-1. This weekend is also the final weekend of the 2017 Kentucky Derby future wagering pool. Five of the 23 runners are in action this weekend (Always Dreaming, Girvin, Guest Suite, Gunnevera and State of Honor). El Areeb who won two Aqueduct Inner-track prep races this past winter, injured himself in a workout at Laurel and is off the Triple Crown trail. He is also listed on the final future pool list and his wagers should be refunded.

Breakfast in the Desert ~ 2017 style!

Today we're serving breakfast in the desert for the 21st year with 2017 edition of the Dubai World Cup card from the crown jewel of racing in the Middle East at Meydan Racecourse. This annual event the final Saturday in March marks my unofficial end of the winter racing season. The Dubai World Cup going a mile and a quarter on dirt, was the world's richest race until this year when the Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park back in January surpassed it. From Cigar in the inaugural running back 1996, to California Chrome last year, American based runners have dominated this race. Today, one of the brightest American stars, who wasn't even on the map a year ago goes for the glory today to add his name to this historic list of champions in the desert.

Arrogate (#9) trained by Bob Baffert became a superstar last summer at Saratoga with a record setting victory in the Travers Stakes. He followed that up with a dominate victory in the Breeder's Cup Classic and a few week's ago winning the first edition of the Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park. Three straight grade I wins and today shows his talent overseas against the best in the world. All indications point to him as the odds-on favorite once again to find the winners circle in fantastic fashion. On pure talent, Arrogate is head and shoulders over the thirteen other runners his faces today. The question is; who for value purposes do you use underneath the phenom?

Awardee (#7) hails from Japan and has been a proven runner at this distance on dirt with three victories in 12 starts and five other times in the money. In his last eight starts, he has been no worst than second, all in stakes. He is listed at 30-1 on the morning line and looks like a solid runner up horse to use at a price.

Gun Runner (#5) was the second best three year old last year when the dust settled. Other than his effort on a sloppy track in the Haskell Stakes, he has been a gem of consistency. The only real stumbling block for him is the distance, a mile and a quarter. Winless in two tries at this distance, other than that he figures a contender off his sharp form he has shown.

Others that you can use underneath my top three selections are; Hoppertunity (#12) who always figures to land a piece, Special Fighter (#13) who was fourth in this race last year and makes his second start off that layoff & Mubtaahij (#14) who won the UAE Derby two years ago at this distance. Numbers for this year's Dubai World Cup : 9-7-5 with 12-13-14 in your superfectas.

Here are my selections for the remainder of the Dubai World Cup stakes card;

Godolphin Mile (1st) : 7-6-8-10 / Dubai Gold Cup (3rd) : 6-3-12-1 / UAE Derby (4th) : 13-6-3-15 / Al Quoz Sprint (5th) : 7-6-11-9 / Dubai Golden Shaheen (6th) : 11-14-1-12 / Dubai Turf (7th) : 1-4-12-10 / Dubai Sheema Classic (8th) : 7-3-5-6.

A masterful victory, with an unfortunate ending ........ with an Anthem to follow

The road to this year's Kentucky Derby has been a rocky trail to say the least! After a few years of logical horses winning the prep races leading to the first Saturday in May, this year everything has gone out the door with that logic. The most clear path lately, has been on the west coast with the California based horses. Whether it's been California Chrome, American Pharoah or Nyquist; the way to go as favorite at post time in the Kentucky Derby was to come from the left coast at one point in your racing career. This year with many of the top contenders falling by the wayside with various injuries or poor efforts, all eyes were focused on last weekend's San Felipe Stakes and Bob Baffert's runner; Mastery. While he did not disappoint with his effort, soon after his victory it was disappointment that set in.

Mastery looked to take a stranglehold on the three year old division with a victory last Saturday afternoon. Well, he won the race in quite impressive fashion. But shortly after the wire, his jockey Mike Smith noticed something amiss with this son of Candy Ride. It was apparent that Mastery suffered some sort of injury when his jockey, dismounted him as the crossed the finish line. Much to the chagrin of his supporters and trainer Bob Baffert, Mastery had a condylar fracture to his left front leg that would require surgery and indefinite time off, thus missing the Kentucky Derby and triple crown races.

With runners like; Classic Empire, McCracken coming down with issues and El Areeb and Irish War Cry with poor efforts in their prep races, Mastery looked to go to the top at the finish in the San Felipe Stakes. Instead, the finish was the finish for him as the three year old and any chance of winning the Kentucky Derby. The result has muddled this year's Kentucky Derby picture even more. After recent years of good success with the favorites for the Run for the Roses, this year it's wide open field at this point in March. It is hoped the both Classic Empire, along with McCracken and Irish War Cry all bounce back in their next prep races. It's the only shot they have to redeem themselves and once again stake their claim as the best thoroughbreds in the Class of 2017 and the First Saturday in May.

We have only one prep race this weekend and it's at Oaklawn Park in the mile and a sixteenth; Rebel Stakes (OP 10th). Bob Baffert attempts to reload this weekend with another charge in American Anthem (#7) who in only two career starts has a first and second as the favorite. This son of Bodemeister worked in company earlier this week with an older Baffert runner; Mor Spirit, entered in the Essex Handicap two races before. After stalking the older runner, American Anthem excelled in the stretch and soon passed Mor Spirit in a sharp six furlong workout. With Mastery off the Derby Trail with injury, American Anthem may be Baffert's only hope for eight weeks from now. He'll be my top pick here with Baffert going for his seventh Rebel victory in the last eight runnings. For second, I'm using the Steve Asmussen recent runner-up in the Risten Star Stakes; Untrapped (#5) who shifts from the Fairgrounds where he raced in his last two starts. For third, it was nearly thirty years ago when trainer; Jack Van Berg had Alysheba nearly win the Triple Crown in 1987. Today he has longshot and recent maiden winner; Appalachian Gem (#9) trying winners for the first time and will be a price to use underneath. The numbers for the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park are; 7 with 5 with 9 and 4/6/10/11 in my superfecta plays.

Another Saratoga Special winner, steps up to the plate and WINS ...... while two other top leaders fail!

In last week's column, I spoke about two horses that could "step up" to the top of the Kentucky Derby prep standings with victories in their respective races. With both Classic Empire and McCracken cropping up with minor issues before their next prep races, Irish War Cry and El Areeb could have moved to the top with victories last weekend. But it became apparently clear after the dust settled, that neither could capitalize with their efforts. Instead, another runner who has been very consistent throughout his short career has risen to the top.

In the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, El Areeb was going for three straight stakes victories in a row at 2-5, but as they turned into the stretch he came up empty fading to third. The winner, J Boys Echo (who was soundly beaten by El Areeb last time the faced each other) won going away and earned 50 points toward the Kentucky Derby. El Areeb's effort sent him down my list and is now questionable in getting the mile an quarter derby distance.

The Florida Derby had even money favorite; Irish War Cry who was no factor, never gaining the lead and finishing a very dull seventh. He came out of the race, clean the next day and his trainer Graham Motion had no explanation for his horrible effort. Practical Joke, coming off third place in last Fall's Breeder's Cup Juvenile returned to the races with a good middle move running second and should move forward. But the real big winner this weekend was a colt who was a graded stakes winner last summer at Saratoga as a two year old and reminds me of a horse last year on the derby trail who held his form and became a Triple Crown race winner in the Preakness. That horse was Exaggerator, who was a solid runner from his two year old campaign right through mid summer last year.

The winner of the Fountain of Youth last Saturday; Gunnevera mirrors him. Trained by local Gulfstream connections; Antonio Sano, this son of Dialed In won the Saratoga Special last year (as did Exaggerator in 2015) continued to hold his form in the Fall winning the Delta Jackpot and ran second in the Holy Bull Stakes last out. Overlooked a bit here as the third choice at 4-1, Gunnevera rallied drawing off by nearly six lengths to victory. Now, he is at the top of my Kentucky Derby list. A winner of four out of eight career starts, Gunnevera has the right running style and seems he should have no problem getting the mile and a quarter distance. While the two logical runners failed, a consistent runner takes advantage and moves right to the top!

Here is my current Derby dozen, eight weeks out of the First Saturday in May. 1) Gunnevera 2) McCracken 3) Practical Joke 4) Classic Empire 5) One Liner 6) Gormley 7) Mastery 8) J Boys Echo 9) Girvin 10) Irish War Cry 11) El Areeb 12) American Anthem. Both Gormley and Mastery are racing in the San Felipe Stakes today at Santa Anita going a mile and a sixteenth and the Tampa Bay Derby a field of ten with the Todd Pletcher trainee; Tapwrit who was the runner-up behind McCracken in the Sam Davis Stakes prep for this as the likely favorite. My selections for the San Felipe Stakes (SA 7th) are 4-6-5-3 and in the Tampa Bay Derby (TAM 11th) : 8-5-4-9.