Europeans, turf runners & synthetic lovers.....questions abound!

The 2009 Breeder’s Cup pre-entries were released this past Wednesday afternoon and 166horses were pre-entered for the 14 championship races next Friday and Saturday. Six races will be contested on Friday afternoon with five of them for the filly and mares. The eight races on Saturday will make up the rest of this tough racing event on the synthetic “pro-ride” surface at Santa Anita Park. With the success of the European contingent last year, especially in the Breeder’s Cup Classic, 36 horses from “across the pond” will be pointing for the races this year. It’s the second straight year of the event being held at Santa Anita, so this year should be a bit easier to gauge on this new racing surface. A strong statistic from last year’s races here was the number of successful dirt horses winning over the pro-ride surface. The total was zero, although a decent amount did fill out the exotic positions. With that said, it should be no surprise that the horses that should be strongly looked at in the year’s races are the ones with synthetic track victories.

Here’s a list of the main track horses that have NEVER raced on any type of an synthetic track; Cloudy’s Knight (marathon) Sara Louise (F&M sprint) Seventh Street (F&M sprint) Devil May Care (Juvenile fillies) Ms Vanenzza (Juvenile fillies) Girolamo (Classic) Mambo Meister (Dirt mile) Quality Road (Classic) Sweet Hearth (Dirt mile) Alfred Nobel (Juvenile) Aspire (Juvenile) Beethoven (Juvenile) D’Funnybone (Juvenile) Radiohead (Juvenile) Vale of York (Juvenile) Eskendereya (Juvenile) Fleeting Spirit (Sprint) Rip Van Winkle (Classic) Summer Bird (Classic) Twice Over (Classic).

Of these twenty listed runners who have never raced over this type surface, the two that will get the most attention will be Quality Road and Summer Bird. Both have been top quality three year old runners on natural dirt, but are an unknown quality on pro-ride. Most likely, Summer Bird will be one of the top three choices in the wagering going in the Classic. Quality Road may also take money because of his connections and past record. So, what is the price you would want on these two horses on the tote board?

The same could be said with the two first time stateside European runners also. Both Rip Van Winkle and Twice Over will try to duplicate what Raven’s Pass and Henry the Navigator did in last year’s Classic running one / two , first time on the pro-ride surface. Will the price on these two horses be considerably lower than their European counterparts last year?

In an ordinary year on a traditional dirt track, both the well known American runners would be strong favorites. On class alone, they would merit this. But, this is Santa Anita and pro-ride which may favor the two European runners, may be a better price on the board. Then you have to also include the turf horses that on a regular Breeder’s Cup venue with natural dirt would stay on the grass surface. Gio Ponti comes to mind in the Classic. It looked like he did not enjoy the mile & a half distance on the turf in his last start (which is the Turf distance in the Breeder’s Cup). Now, he also opted for the Classic race at a slightly shorter distance. These are questions that will be answered in one week and until then, you may to study the past performances over and over until the wagering begins.

New York bred Showcase Day @ Belmont Park.....it will be a soggy one!

The 2009 Belmont Park racing calendar wind’s up this weekend with the 16th annual New York bred Showcase Day racing card. This year with the forecast of inclement weather schedule for Saturday in the greater metropolitan area, the two races on the grass (Ticonderoga & Mohawk Handicap) will be run on the final Belmont card Sunday afternoon. That leaves only five New York bred restricted races today on the main track. We have a pair of two year old races going a mile, two sprint races both for the males & fillies and the Empire Classic, going a mile & an eighth for the older N.Y. breds. This race card is one of my favorites that NYRA schedules each year. It comes at the end of the racing year and always just before the Breeder’s Cup day. The topic of this week’s column is an old fashioned handicapping card of the five races that make up this year’s New York bred Showcase Day.

Race #6 starts the showcase card with the Maid of the Mist for two year old fillies at a mile. The focus here is on the one / two finishers in the recently run Joseph A Gimma Stakes at Belmont Park going seven furlongs in the slop on September 27th. Mineralogist (#2) and Sugar Trade (#6) ran first & second in that event and look tough coming back going an addition panel. Theses two get my top billing with Raffie’s Rose (#7) – Spirit of Rose (#8) – Embrace Change (#9) underneath in the triple and superfecta plays.

Race #7 is the boys turn in the The Sleepy Hollow going the same distance. Here once again, I’m going with the proven product on a sloppy track condition with the winner of the Bertram F. Bongard ran the same day as the J.A. Gimma Stakes. Make a Note (#7) was solid in winning that day with a $20.00 mutual. I’ll use him along with Ibboyee (#10) the undefeated runner from the Todd Pletcher barn. Underneath these two will be used; Magic Tiger (#9) – City Trooper (#5) – Come From Behind (#3).

Older filly and mare sprinters are up next (8th) in the seven furlong – Iroquois Stakes. Here is my first “price” play of the card. The three year old filly; Sapphire Sky (#9) has had interesting season so far. Her only two off-the-board finishes this year were on the grass and versus open company runners. Her victory in an overnight stake at Saratoga on a sloppy track gives her the call here for me at the 12-1 morning line odds. My second selection is also a price on the morning line. Under Service (#8) has flashy speed and her only try on an off-track was a nearly wire to wire victory. Rightly So (#10) morning line favorite will be used underneath in the exotics, but gets a class test today. Afleet Alexandra (#12) & Gold for the Queen (#4) both should relish the off-track and should be also used.

The older boys go one less panel in the Hudson Handicap (9th). It will be tough going past the rail horse; Driven by Success (#1) with his early speed. Legal Consent (#4) can handle an off-track and the sprint distance, should be a square price in the exacta. Law Enforcement (#11) defeated the top selection at Saratoga , Lookin At Her (#8) was a longshot winner last out and Smokin Hero (#2) has never been out of the money on wet tracks. These three go underneath the top two picks.

The Empire Classic (#10) is a clash between two nice three year old runners and the usual classy older N.Y. bred runners. Consistent three year old; Slevin (#2) gets the top pick here over the in-form, sharp older gelding – Future Prospect (#6). One horse to watch here is the second off the layoff runner; Haynesfield (#5). He’ll be used with Ruffino (#10) who seeks his five in a row and the filly; Weathered (#4) who has clashed with some top older open company distaffers.

It's a "synthetic" world we live in!

For the second straight year, the Breeder’s Cup Championship races that are contested on the main track will not be on the traditional dirt surface. Pro-Ride is the synthetic polytrack of choice at Santa Anita Park and whether we like it or not, this is what we face as handicappers. Last year, it was a whole new game trying to come up with horses that would excel on the surface. This year with the experience under our belt, it should be much easier. Fact is that horses either love the surface or hate it. If you have a horse that runs well on turf, usually this artificial surface will be no problem for him or her. It’s the horses who maintain a steady diet of natural dirt races that are in question. With the major prep races done for this year’s Breeder’s Cup, we’ll look back at where they were run and which of those tracks may favorite runners on November 6th and 7th.

A quick glance of the “Win and you’re In” Breeder’s Cup Challenge races have horses winning at these “polytrack” venues; Arlington Park , Del Mar, Turfway Park , Woodbine , Keeneland and Santa Anita Park . Of those horses winning these designated races; Gio Ponti could contest the Classic instead of the mile and a half Turf, Zensational could be the favorite in the Sprint, Richard’s Kid ran well for a second time on the surface and could be a square price in the Classic, distance loving; Nite Light looks toward the Marathon with a victory at Turfway Park , Ventura could race on either surface or in three different races, Looking at Lucky & Blind Luck lead the charge in both Juvenile races with victories at Santa Anita, Negligee & Noble’s Promise were longshot winners last weekend at Keeneland in their two Juvenile races. Fatal Bullet & Informed Decision both enjoy the polytrack surface and Zenyatta stretched her winning streak to 13 straight and may take on the boys in the Classic.

These horses above have shown that they can win on the surface that Santa Anita has for racing on thier main track. Consideration of these runners is high priority when it comes to handicapping the Breeder’s Cup races. The horses that will be in question are the ones that have never raced on a synthetic surface and especially those who will be a short price. Summer Bird and Quality Road who are both pointing to the Classic have never raced on anything but natural dirt. These two runners will also be a “short” price in the wagering. Taking a chance versus the proven synthetic runners is a risky proposition. The two year old horses that raced at Saratoga and Belmont have to be placed in the same category. These young horses that haven’t raced on polytrack shouldn’t be taken at a short price in any circumstance. There will be many horses cross-entered both in the turf races and on the main track. The European runners that excelled so well here last year, will lead the charge of cross-entered runners.

In the past, we as handicappers only needed to worry about dirt and turf races when we went over the races. Sometimes the weather and track conditions also came into play. Now, polytrack puts a new wrinkle into our handicapping. And for a second straight year, it’s on thoroughbred racing’s biggest day. The second time around should be much easier with the lessons learned from last year.

Four is more.....when it comes to Spa racing days!

When something is successful and "the powers to be" want to expand it’s scope, the same question always arises; when is more, too much? Too much of a good thing can “water down” a product and sometimes make it less appealing. Whether it’s too many teams making the playoffs in professional sports or too much of a good thing in the entertainment field (i.e. Jay Leno on every night), sometimes if we get too much of a good thing, the result may backfire on the purpose.

We’ve are blessed to have the greatest thoroughbred racing in the world right out our back door in Saratoga . One of three racing meets in New York , it wasn’t until 1962 when then Governor W. Averill Harriman instituted the “The Harriman Law,” which mandated a minimum of 24 race days at Saratoga every year. The racing days remained that way for nearly thirty years until the meet was expanded in 1991 to 30 days. Three year’s later the number went to 34 and has been 36 since 1997. This past Wednesday, the New York Racing Association (NYRA) decided to add four more days to its 2010 thoroughbred race meet and bring the total 40 days. This increase in racing days comes on the heels of a very successful 2009 Saratoga race meet, spite the overall decrease in thoroughbred racing nationwide.

The meet will end on the traditional closing day which is Labor Day and the four new days will be added to the beginning on the meet in July. The 2010 Saratoga race meet will start on July 23rd which is a Friday and will include a stake race each day. The grade I - Coaching Club America Oaks which is traditionally run at Belmont Park, will move to Saratoga that first Saturday of the meet (July 24th). All these new changes are pending approval from the NYRA Board of Directors of course, but this should be no problem.

While thoroughbred racing numbers were on a decline nationwide about 12% in August, Saratoga was only down less than 2%. The horsemen throughout the country wanted to come to the Spa with a record number of stall applications and the increase of days will play in favor to NYRA. Another plus for NYRA was that they could continue to race six days a week, while many other tracks throughout the country had to cut back on days of racing.

The reaction of most of the people in the Saratoga area has been a positive one with the recent economy problems and the addition of these four days will bring added revenue to the area. But with the four added days, will the “on track” race product be affected adversely? The first half of this year’s Saratoga meet had full and very difficult racing fields which made my handicapping very tough. It was a bad thing for myself, but very lucrative for those who wagered successfully. The during the second half, the fields got smaller toward the end of the meet. Now, I know four more race days shouldn’t make much of a difference, but in the past when six new days were added to the meet, a few years later it expanded to 36 for a total of 12 new days. Hopefully, the past rumored idea of starting the meet during the 4th of July week will not come to fruition.

As always, the weather plays the biggest factor during the Saratoga meet for its success. But, the main purpose of NYRA and the Saratoga Springs area is to make revenue and stay in the “black”. With these four added days, it will help them achieve that goal and should not impact the “on track” racing product. This time, more helps out and makes things better.

"Super Saturday" Belmont Park selections - full card!

1st race: Independence War (#9) – the “stranger of this group” comes out an overnight stake at Lone Star Park in mid May on a sloppy track, 7 for 19 in the win column the past two years. “scratch” pick – Benlaya (#6)

2nd race: Jimmy Vegas (#10) – failed in only start last March on the “inner-track” as part of the favorite entry in special weight class, drops to maiden claimer today versus weak group. “scratch” pick – Tinto (#2)

3rd race: Keep Thinking (#6) – rallied at the Spa going six panels after racing on polytrack out-of-town, one turn mile should be right up his alley. “scratch” pick – Jayden’s Hope (#8)

4th race: Captain Rio (#5) – second best behind Saratoga Russell on the opening day card at Saratoga , sports two straight 90 plus Beyer speed figures. “scratch” pick – Redding Colliery (#4)

5th race: Habana (#1) – a Dynaformer firster from the Mott barn, also includes MTO entrymate. “scratch” pick – Rule (#13)

6th race (The Beldame) – Copper State (#3) looking for an upset here with this Prairie Meadows / Churchill shipper, will definitely be overlooked in the short field. Music Note (#2) did not mind the turnback in distance or the sloppy track last time out in the Ballerina, the “horse to beat”.

7th race (The Vosburgh) – Fabulous Strike (#5) the overall class of this sprinting field, gives his best effort every time out. Munnings (#3) even effort in the King’s Bishop Stakes, has beaten older horses already this year. Exotic horses: Kodiak Cowboy (#4)

8th race (The Flower Bowl) – Moneycantbuymelove (#7) European invader ran 3rd last time out in group I race in England, first time lasix & handles soft turf. Pure Clan (#3) closer was gaining ground as the favorite in the Beverly D at Arlington Park last time out, will be flying late. Exotic horses: Dynaforce (#4) & Clement entry (#1)

9th race (Joe Hirsch Turf Classic) – Gio Ponti (#1) seeks fifth win in a row, has become the premier turf horse in the country. Grand Couturier (#8) returned to his old form last time out in the Bowling Green Handicap, winner of this race last year. Exotic horses: Al Khali (#3) & Ready’s Echo (#6)

10th race (Jockey Club Gold Cup) – Summer Bird (#3) made me a believer with his Travers Stakes victory in the slop, looks to get the same set up today. Quality Road (#7) game effort on a track he didn’t like in the Travers, may get the same track today. Exotic horses: Macho Again (#2) & Dry Martini (#6)

11th race: Love and Havoc (#3) – tries the weeds after showing speed in debut on a sloppy sealed track, will take on either surface if it rains. “scratch” pick – Saginaw (#14)