First 20 days ....... in the books!

Today marks the mid way point in the 2013 historic 150th Saratoga Racecourse meet. The first 20 days have seemed like forever for me since the meet started the earliest in recent memory. The July 19th opening day Friday was a hot one, much like our summer has been most of this season. Though there was much fanfare about the "heat" and how it would effect the horses by the masses who know little about the sport, all the equine athletes who raced on the ninety degree open day card......survived! Once again the general public (and some media outlets) don't give enough credit to the horseman and people in charge of the thoroughbred product that runs racing in New York and throughout the country. NOBODY wants to see these thoroughbreds endangered in any way.

The one thing that did bother me though as I made the rounds throughout the Spa facility was, the many new food vendor trucks around the outside of the clubhouse and grandstand area. In recent years, NYRA was made a point of giving the racing public a wide variety of different food items. This is all well and good, but the number of mobile canteen food trucks is a little ridiculous. In the area around the carousel, where the handicapping seminars are and the NYRA pre-race show is taped, there are a half a dozen different food trucks lined up along the walk area behind the grandstand. It's a little overkill and space is taken away from the picnic area. What bothers me the most is with this influx of available food vendors, the possibly that in the future, NYRA may limit what items can be brought into the track. I hope I'm wrong, but the "flavor" of historic Saratoga has had a bit of it taken away with all these new vendors.

The one thing that Saratoga has always presented over Belmont and Aqueduct has been it's old time historic flavor. It has been even more apparent this year with the 150th celebration of the track. The entire calendar of events since this spring has been wonderful. We owe a big thank you of gratitude to Marylou Whitney and her husband John Hendrickson for all they have done for this historic birthday celebration. Last Saturday, the events on track before, during and after the races were what a day at the races should be like all the time. Showing the rich history, pageantry and beauty of thoroughbred racing and how it relates to the people involved. It was like going back in a time machine. THIS is how the sport should be promoted.

As far as the equine athletes on-track, we've seen a lot of talented two year old runners. I knew we would because of the lack of "baby" races downstate at Belmont Park . The three year old runners in both sexes are gearing up for the Alabama and Travers Stakes in two and three weeks from now. We'll see the Kentucky Oaks winner; Princess of Sylmar, Kentucky Derby winner ; Orb and Belmont Stakes winner; Palace Malice plus the very talented; Verrazano who won the Haskell Stakes. Newcomer superstar; Cross Traffic has leaped onto the scene with his Whitney Stakes victory and how many times to you see the reigning Horse of the Year at Saratoga? Today Wise Dan meets his foes in the Fourstardave Handicap and totes the assigned high weight of 129 lbs. It may have seem like an eternity the first 20 days with the heat, but it was well worth it!

The name WHITNEY and it's rich Saratoga history!

With the rich historic past of Saratoga Race Course, there is one name that comes to mind, especially during this 150th anniversary celebration. A family that has major ties to thoroughbred racing at Saratoga the last hundred years. As owners and philanthropist to the sport, the Whitney's have been one of the most recognized names at Saratoga . CV Whitney was one of the most prominent thoroughbred owners since the turn of the last century. In 1928 the now famous race at Saratoga was named after his family; the Whitney Handicap. Through the years, many famous thoroughbred have won this mile and an eighth event for the older horses. Today, the Whitney Handicap is a major summer race with implications for the Breeder's Cup Classic ran in the Fall and usually winners of that race become candidates for "Horse of the Year".

CV Whitney past away in 1992, but his former wife; Marylou Whitney continues the tradition to the sport and along with her husband; John Hendrickson have made many generous donations for this year's 150th race course celebration. This weekend is exact date of the Sesquicentennial celebration for Saratoga Race Course and also marks the 86th running of the race named after the family that has done so much for thoroughbred racing and the City of Saratoga Springs .

This grade I race which is a Invitational, has had many famous horses win this two turn route event. Names like; Discovery (three time winner), War Admiral, Stymie, Kelso (also three time winner), Dr. Fager, Onion (who defeated Secretariat), Alydar, Lady's Secret, Personal Ensign, Easy Goer and many others. This year we have the returning winner of this race last year; Fort Larned . His victory last year propelled him into a Breeder's Cup Classic victory in the Fall. His last race at Churchill Downs in the Stephen Foster Handicap earned him a high Beyer speed figure of 115. His runner up foe in the Breeder's Cup Classic; Mucho Macho Man faces him again making his third start off a layoff and looks to improve to his 2012 form. Newcomer Cross Traffic looks to make his mark in grade I competition with his brilliant speed. The race may not have the current "Horse of Year" Wise Dan, but his stablemate; Successful Dan is a worthy opponent in this spot. Add grade I winner; Ron the Greek with last year's "dead heat" winner of the Travers Stakes; Alpha and you have assembled the best older handicap horses in the country!

This is a tough field, filled with speed. It looks like Cross Traffic may be the pace setter with Fort Larned and Mucho Macho Man not far behind. Successful Dan, Alpha and longshot Csaba will also be just behind the front runners. The closers like Ron the Greek and Fast Falcon will have an impact if the fractions are fast up front. Fort Larned should be the post time favorite, I expect him to be around 8-5 to 2-1 odds range. He is the "horse to beat" and must use in all exotics. The 2nd choice in the betting will be between, Cross Traffic and Mucho Macho Man. The speedy Pletcher trainee will be over bet in my opinion and must show he can get the route distance. Ron the Greek will be a solid price around 7 or 8-1 and the others will have double digit odds. I'm going to take a shot (one more time) with the closer; Ron The Greek. He needs to stay in contact with the field and if the fractions are quite quick up front, he can score the minor upset. Underneath him, will be both Fort Larned and Mucho Macho Man. The others finishing in the top two spots would be a surprise in my opinion.

Trust your own instincts .......... your 1st instincts!

The quote of this young meet so far for myself is; "Trust your own instinct. Your mistakes might as well be your own, instead of someone elses." This quote from famous American director, Billy Wilder comes into play when it comes to selecting and handicapping thoroughbred runners. It couldn't be more clear than this past Wednesday as I worked on creating a "Pick 6" ticket for a double carryover going into the card. As I discussed in last week's column, my "play of the day" wager will have ALL the winnings donated to the victims of recent flooding in the Fort Plain area. With such a big carryover, I thought of putting a little pick six ticket together for a chance of possibly making a huge score and nice little donation to my hometown people. It was a tough sequence, but with a little work I came up with a $24.00 ticket.

I worked on different versions in creating how many horses I would use in races 5 through 10. The 1st leg was quite a "head banger" to say the least! Race #5 was a six furlong maiden claiming race that was wide open. I loved the #7 Lady Halite which was 10-1 on the morning line and eventually went off at 5.70 to 1 odds. I figured to use two other horses also, the #4 Mama Zee and #6 Inaflash, which these two runners ran first and second. By using three horses in leg #1, I was alive with a $11.60 horse.

Race #6 was a very good high priced optional claimer for 100k with a lot of familiar names entered. Here was my 1st "single" play with the #10 Mr. Commons (2-1) dropping from stakes action to this level. This race was won a 10-1 shot, Seal Cove for Shug McGaughey and halted my chances of hitting the pick 6 all by myself. Still with four legs to go, there was a very good chance of getting 5 out of 6 consolation payout. Race #7 was the first of two races taking off-the-turf and this is where I made my first change, which I would regret later

I still used my "top" selection which was a turf runner; #9 Corinthianna, but also used a horse with the best main track "dirt" form; #3 My Cousin Zinny who went off as the post time favorite. When I made this change, I took one horse out of the final leg in the 10th race which also came off-the-turf. This would keep my dollar amount the same ($24.00) for the play, just by adding in the 7th and deleting one in the 10th. Needless to say, I should have just stuck to my original instincts and just use the #9 who won and paid $11.20 to win.

The next two legs (8th & 9th) were won by the favorites, so heading into the finale 10th, I was alive with 4 out of 5 winners. I was getting a little excited with the prospect of possibly having a winning 5 out of 6 consolation pick six ticket that was a 1.2 million dollar pool. But, unfortunately the ticket I created the night before was subjected to change by myself because of the two races being taken off-the-turf. I said to my wife Karen, anyone but the #5 can win this race and if the #5 wins....... I'm going to be real upset!

The dirt form in the 10th maiden claimer was much like the 1st leg of today's pick 6. In fact, the post time favorite went off at final odds of 4.30 to 1. I needed the #3 Show Some Lovin to win and he sat second until mid stretch and faded to 3rd in the end. Unfortunately, the horse I tossed out late, #5 Where's Danny, who had NEVER raced on dirt, came charging up and won going away. The result was a $388.50 "5 out of 6" payout, which if the races stayed on the turf in the 7th and 10th, would have gave the people of Fort Plain a nice donation of help from yours truly. I should have trusted my instinct and have no one to blame but myself! This will be a tough one to get over, but I promise to make it up and have 35 more days to keep my promise to my hometown and win them some money!

They're off........ at SARATOGA!

To say that the beginning of 2013 Saratoga race meet got off to a "hot" start, would be a understatement! It was day #5 of a 90 plus degree heat wave when the starting gates opened for the 40 day meet that runs through Labor Day. The New York Racing Association (NYRA) supposedly opens a "new" era with new leadership in place. New faces, new directions are all what it's about when it comes to NYRA and they want to show the public and so course; New York State Government exactly that. But, I've heard this same "song and dance" the last ten years or so and in the end, state government has the LAST say!

This week, new NYRA President / CEO, Christopher Kay met with the press and talked about the direction he wants to see the racing association go into the future. But, talk is cheap IF his hands are tied by the "powers to be" much like the past decade by the state. After all, no matter how you cut it, the bottom line is that Saratoga is a RACE track! We can present it, with all the bells and whistles and new fangled ideas. In the end, it's the money that pass through the windows that counts the most. And the state is worrying about that the most.

I'll be starting my 16th season handicapping the six day a week meet for the Amsterdam Recorder and 26th over all. I've seen it all in that time frame. Opening day is STILL special though. Even though I'll be at the "century" mark (50 years old) in 2014, this time of the year still excites me. The best in thoroughbred racing in the world, comes to upstate New York during the summer months and the area economy thrives with thousands of people coming to the area. Generally a economically depressed area, the Capital District gets a much needed shot in the arm for month and a half. It's something we should be grateful for and should embrace it.

Besides my handicapping of the daily nine (or so) , I'll also have a vested interest with some of the equine flesh that will appear here at the Spa. In fact, on today's card; Dee Tee Stables has two horses entered. In today's 5th race; our N.Y. bred gelding; TOY CANNON continues to try and get his 2nd career victory. Co-owned with Paul Pompa (of Big Brown fame) he's been a steady contender this year and unlucky in his past few starts. Later on the card in the 11th race finale, our other statebred gelding; CORYBANT drops into a open company beaten claimer and gets a BIG jockey switch to Rosie Napravink. Going from the rail, he could land a piece and at a big price! We also had another runner for the grass, MY PAL OF PALS who is trying to get through his non winners of one condition.

This year's Saratoga meet will also have a special place in my heart with my "Play of the Day" which I give out every week day after the 8am news on WCSS 1490am radio during the Mike Mancini Show. My hometown of Fort Plain , New York was devastated by deadly flood which destroyed much of the town. It affected family, friends and broke my heart to see the damage that was done. So, the winnings from my play of the day wager will ALL be donated to the flood victims of Fort Plain. It's my little part in giving back to the community I spent 25 years of my youth and grew up in. It's a special time of the year for me, I'll enjoy it and invite you to come along for the ride until Labor Day!

I'm back !!!!!!!!!!! and just in time for Saratoga!

Mark Hoffman's 2013 Kentucky Derby Selections

Normandy Invasion #5 (Brown/Castellano) 12-1

I was looking for a horse that fit the Kentucky Derby profile,
this Chad Brown trainee only shows a maiden victory.... but
has a running style that cries out for the Derby distance, especially
sharp this past week training at Churchill Downs.... he has extreme
value with his morning line odds and gets my slight top pick to upset.

Orb #16 (McGaughey/Rosario) 7-2

One of the most "hyped" horses in recent memory, the hot jockey and
legendary trainer may vie for favoritism when all is said and done, has
improved each race, rock solid going the route distances and would be no
surprise winning this race and getting Shug that elusive Kentucky Derby
victory!
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Value and longshot runners to use with my top 2 selections :

Overanalynze #9 (Pletcher/Bejarano) 15-1
Lines of Battle #11 (O'Brien/Moore) 30-1
Palace Malice #10 (Pletcher/Smith) 20-1
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Exotic plays to use underneath, but not in the win spot :

Revolutionary #3 (Pletcher/Borel) 10-1
Verrazano #14 (Pletcher/Velazquez) 4-1
Itsmyluckyday #12 (Plesa/Trujillo) 15-1
Mylute #6 (Amoss/Napravnik) 15-1

2013 KENTUCKY DERBY contenders (3/7)

1) Flashback - perfect in his two career starts, steps it up vs. a modest field this Saturday in the San Felipe at Santa Anita
2) Super Ninety Nine - loved the slop in the Southwest Stakes, this Baffert runner makes next start in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn (3/16)
3) Vyjack - made a believer out of me with a new dimension from off the pace winning the Gotham Stakes, the Wood Memorial is up next (4/6)
4) Orb - loved his running style victory in the FOTY Stakes over a Gulfstream speed favoring strip, stays in down south for the Florida Derby (3/30)
5) Itsmyluckyday - won the Holy Bull Stakes early on the Triple Crown trail,consistent as they come, he tries to prove himself in the Florida Derby next start.
6) Revolutionary - came from the clouds with wild trip in the Withers Stakes on the Aqueduct Inner-track, trips like that are tough in the Derby, heads to the Fairgrounds next for the Louisiana Derby.
7) Verrazano - won two starts by over 24 lengths, gets the "acid" test in the Tampa Bay Derby this Saturday, may be the real deal!
8) Shanghai Bobby - 2nd best in seasonal debut in the Holy Bull Stakes, gets only ONE more start before the Derby (Fla.Derby), question his ability to get the mile & a quarter.
9) Normandy Invasion - broke slowly in the Risen Star Stakes in first start of the year, ships back to NY for the Wood Memorial for next start.
10) Overanalyze - came up a dud in the Gotham Stakes as the favorite, may go in either the Wood or Arkansas Derby next time out.

11) Goldencents - winner of the Sham Stakes three months ago, faces Flashback in the San Felipe, must move forward.
12) Den's Legacy - 2nd best behind Flashback in last, ships to Oaklawn Park for start in the Rebel Stakes, makes 11th career start.
13) Shakin It Up - sharp win in the San Vicente going seven panels, Baffert takes him to the Sunland Derby for his stretching out next start.
14) Falling Sky - went wire to wire in the Sam F. Davis Stakes in last start, tries to carry his speed to victory in the Tampa Bay Derby going the same distance.
15) Ive Struck A Nerve - was 135-1 coming from the clouds to win the Risen Star Stakes in last start, a "bomber" won a 3yr.old stake there last year too!
16) Code West - just missed to above horse in interesting trip, another consistent runner.
17) Palace Malice - right behind top two with 3rd place finish, looks like a Pletcher 2nd stringer.
18) Oxbow - weakened late to three horses above after having the lead, don't know what to make of the 2013 edition of the Risen Star Stakes.
19) Dynamic Sky - chased Falling Sky in last start, faces him again & Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby .
20) Delhomme - unseen since setting the pace in the Remsen Stakes tiring to 3rd, makes seasonal debut in the Rebel Stakes.
21) Uncaptured - won the Kentucky Juvenile Cup last Fall at Churchill Downs, unseen since then & looks like that was a negative race.