California Chrome shines in Kentucky

Quite often in important races with a full field of runners, many times the "best horse" doesn't win. This can be said with many editions of the Kentucky Derby, after all we have a whole lot of young thoroughbreds grouped together and attempting something none have ever done before; going a classic distance of ground. It's takes a special horse and last Saturday evening we saw one.

California Chrome became the fifth favorite since 2000 to win the Run for the Roses. As the 5-2 favorite (lowest since Big Brown in 2008) he went into the race as the best horse and came out of it with the same credentials. The California bred son of Lucky Pulpit sat the perfect trip the entire 10 furlongs of the race and stamped himself as the best three year old colt of 2014 so far. His connections had a story book tale with a likeable crew of owners who reminded me of the Funny Cide group from 2003 and a trainer who once before was at the Derby scene, only it was nearly 60 years ago.

Art Sherman, long time west coast trainer was on the Kentucky Derby trail a very long time ago with the legendary horse; Swaps in 1955. Then, he was the exercise rider for that horse who won the Derby and put California bred runners on the map. Now, this trainer came full circle with his own horse and the storybook tale continues to Baltimore in a week as he attempts victory in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico. He was the real deal and best favorite to win this race since Fusiachi Pegasus in 2000.

Six years ago, a runner named; Big Brown won the Derby at nearly the same odds and from post 20. That group he faced that year wasn't that good in hind sight and he would go on the win the second leg of the Triple Crown. But we all know how he broke hearts in the Belmont Stakes and never was much of a runner after that race. I know I'm biased against Big Brown for my own reasons and believe that in the long haul, California Chrome will be a bigger thoroughbred than Big Brown.

While the focus on this year's Kentucky Derby was one of a possible speed collapse for the closers, the time did come up on the slow side with the lowest Beyer speed figure (97) since the inception of these figures. On paper, he was a deserving favorite and with so many of the highly rated two year olds of last year not making the race last week, he had the perfect spot to become the "best horse" to win. Few from the Derby are willingly to follow him in the Preakness and the "new shooters aren't in the same caliber as him. Past history is on his side also, when a dominate Kentucky Derby winner returns in two weeks, he wins. So, I won't be trying to beat him next week. The focus will be on another victory for him and once again the "chance" of seeing history on June 7th at Belmont Park. We have a superstar in the making, with the right connections and horsepower to become a household name.

Today, we have a prep race for the Belmont Stakes in four weeks. The mile and an eighth; Peter Pan Stakes will be contested on the huge Belmont Park oval with seven runners entered. The morning line favorite at 2-1 is Tonalist (#4) trained by Christophe Clement. This lightly raced son of Tapit makes his fourth career start after a runner-up 2nd place finish behind Constitution in a optional claimer at Gulfstream Park on February 22nd. He has had a few minor setbacks since then and has been pointed for this race. He'll be my top selection off his bullet workout in return. For 2nd, I'm going with the much improved Our Caravan (#6) who was big in winning on April 5th in the Calder Derby going a mile in a eighth. It was a huge reversal in form from his two pervious stakes starts at Gulfstream Park. I'll round out my selections with Commissioner (#3) trained by Todd Pletcher. He has been no factor in his last three stake starts and gets one last chance today and may improve over Big Sandy with it's wide sweeping turns.

Mark Hoffman's 2014 graded Kentucky Derby selections

Intense Holiday (#16) Velazquez / Pletcher (8-1)
when several of your horses along the Derby prep trail fall by the wayside, you look to the horses that finished behind them, this Starlight runner ran behind Honor Code & Cairo Prince last Fall in the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct going a mile and an eighth, had a sharp workout over the Churchill strip and gets Johnny V in the irons, can set the trip as a mid pack runner behind the speed, this is a timid choice at best.

California Chrome (#5) Espinoza / Sherman (5-2)
this popular California bred runner deserves favorism in the 140th edition of this race, his three races at Santa Anita are the sharpest of any in this field and is definitely the "horse to beat", my only question mark with him is; how he'll react when he is pushed by the other speed horses & how he'll race at a track away from the west coast.

General A Rod (#8) Rosario / Maker (15-1)
I've been following this runner since New Year's day when he had a nice win in the first Derby of the year at Gulfstream Park at a mile, followed that up with a 2nd & 3rd in the other two major preps there and runs for new connections today, was an even 2nd over the Churchill strip as a two year old and will be a square price here.

Ride On Curlin (#19) Borel / Gowan (15-1)
consistent sort only shows once out of the money in nine career lifetime starts, trainer has him and only two other runners in the barn, has a tough post to go from & you get hurt with his odds because of Calvin in the irons, good exotic play.

Tapiture (#15) Santana / Asmussen (12-1)
winner of a grade II stake over the track as a two year old, started the year off good with a victory and place at Oaklawn in their stake preps, had a dud in the Arkansas Derby as the 2nd choice finishing a dull 4th, may rebound today at a track he likes, Santana returns to the irons today, don't over look!

Candy Boy (#18) Stevens / Sadler (15-1)
intriguing longshot closer disappointed in the Santa Anita Derby finishing even 3rd with no late kick after showing one in the RB Lewis Stakes in his previous race, has to maneuver from the outside & show he can also run well away from the California tracks, should be a factor late.

Wildcat Red (#10) Saez / Garoffalo (15-1)
the speedy Sunshine state runner has out run his pedigree in his two turn races at Gulfstream, today he meets other speedy types and gets a true test today on the front end, he may not get the Derby distance..... but, will go down fighting with his gutsy efforts.



Danza (#4) Bravo / Pletcher (8-1)
upset winner of the Arkansas Derby at 41-1 for Mr. Pletcher, never raced two turns before that race, third start off layoff, could be the "now" horse or could bounce from that effort, still don't know what to make of him...... but would be no surprise in this year's field.

Samraat (#6) Jose Ortiz / Violette (15-1)
solid NY bred had his five race undefeated streak snapped in the Wood Memorial, but was game in defeat coming back again to be 2nd best, hopefully would get cooked in a speed duel with the other front runners, game as any in this field!

Wicked Strong (#20) Maragh / Jerkens (6-1)
returned to form with a going away victory in the Wood Memorial, draws the far outside post..... but is a closer, will make presence felt in the stretch, likely the 2nd choice.

Medal Count (#14) Albarado / Romans (20-1)
another closer who has shown versatility on all three surfaces, his two stakes on real dirt..... he showed nothing, but did break his maiden at Ellis Park in a off-the-turf event, best of the polytrack runners in my opinion.

Uncle Sigh (#3) Irad Ortiz / Contessa (30-1)
the other NY bred, broke slowly in last with wide trip and was no factor, gets an equipment change today with BLINKERS ON, trainer had the best quote of Derby week about this runner...... look it up!

Vicar's in Trouble (#1) Napravnik / Maker (30-1)
wire to wire winner of the Louisiana Derby in his last start, has got real "trouble" with tricky inside post, Rosie may be forced to "go" from the spot & get involved a speed duel, hasn't been training the best either...... toss!

Dance With Fate (#12) Nakatani / Eurton (20-1)
closing winner of the last Blue Grass Stakes on polytrack at Keeneland, has become a "wise guy" longshot runner by some....... not me!

Chitu (#13) Garcia / Baffert (20-1)
winner of the Sunland Derby was a question mark running in this race, had shoe problems in recent workout here, Baffert's last bullet after the scratch of my original top pick in this race; Hoppertunity.

Commanding Curve (#17) Bridgmohan / Stewart (50-1)
late entry to this race after his stable was declared this past weekend, trainer had 2nd place longshot closer last year; Golden Soul, not much to say about this runner who is similarly to that runner-up, maybe a superfecta play.


Harry's Holiday (#2) Lanerie / Maker (50-1)
finished 13th in the 14 horse Blue Grass field, another that could add speed on the front end.

Vinceremos (#9) Rocco / Pletcher (50-1)
stopped and finished dead last in the Blue Grass, a 4th or 5th tier Pletcher runner, toss!

We Miss Artie (#7) Castellano / Pletcher (50-1)
connections have made it clear...... this is a prep race for the Queen's Plate at Woodbine in a few weeks, bet him then!

If first you don't succeed ....... or second ....... or third

A wise man once said; "The best laid plans of mice and men often go astray". Not a better quote for this year's Kentucky Derby trail for yours truly. I was quite excited last Fall when a nice two year old colt from the Shug McGaughey barn made a name for himself on the NYRA racing circuit. His name was Honor Code and in my last column for 2013 I was singing the praises of this juvenile. I ended that column with this paragraph; "With what we've seen so far this year with the Juvenile runners, the group is evenly matched with no runner head and shoulders above the rest. Just in the two starts that Honor Code has made, he has the right connections with the right breeding and that exciting running style to be a force next year as a three year old. Next week in the Remsen Stakes here at Aqueduct, going the two-turns for the first time, Honor Code just may be the exciting horse that will turn heads next spring leading up to the 2014 Kentucky Derby". Unfortunately, he would only race once this year and then go on the sidelines with a minor injury. Meanwhile, there was another horse in the McGaughey barn that was just as talented, if not more. Top Billing had major potential with his three races at Gulfstream this past winter. He was being pointed toward either the Florida Derby or Wood Memorial when once again, a injury put him out of commission and out of the Derby. I saw a pattern starting with horses I liked for the First Saturday in May.

That leads us to this past Thursday morning. I was going to try and buck a 132 year old jinx or trend. After weeks of three year old prep races, I was already to select the Bob Baffert trainee; Hoppertunity. Even though he was unraced as a two year old (the last Derby winner who fit that same profile was Apollo in 1882) he had a foundation this year with five starts and two solid efforts in graded stakes competition. He was the alternative to the morning line favorite California Chrome in my opinion. I split the 20 horse field into two separate categories, the contenders and the no shots. There were several of my 10 contenders which figured, but were hard to use in my top spot. As I was ready to work on my graded Derby entries, I found out the news that Hoppertunity was a scratch for this year's Derby. Disappointment reigned again with my top Derby pick, this time only two days before the race. One time before in 1992, years before I was a public handicapper, my top selection; AP Indy was scratched the morning of the Derby. That year, Azari was the odds-on favorite, I went against him finishing in the money. I was right on that count, but with nothing to show for as my other picks were "up the track". Most recently in two different Belmont Stakes, my top picks were also early scratches after the draw. In one case, a horse was going for the Triple Crown (I'll Have Another). But, when it comes to this race; the Kentucky Derby, losing a horse you really like so close to the big race, really really hurts!

Here are my selections for the Churchill Downs Kentucky Derby stakes undercard (races 6 thru 11). Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (6th) : 3/9/1/4 ~ Humana Distaff (7th) : 3/8/2/6 ~ American Turf (8th) : 8/4/5/11 ~ Churchill Downs Stakes (9th) : 4/11/10/2 ~Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (10th) : 1/10/7/3 ~ Kentucky Derby (11th) : 16/5/8/19.

My pick 6 stakes play : 3- 3/8- 8- 4/11- 1/10- 5/16 ($32) good luck!

The filly counterpart of the Derby ...... 2014 Spa dates ...... the Derby Trial

Since this column got back into full swing a little over a month ago, we've been focusing on the Kentucky Derby preps and the horses who will get a spot in the starting gate of twenty. With all the preps finished and the field set, my focus this week will be the "other" big race the day before. The female counterpart to the Kentucky Derby is the Kentucky Oaks on the first Friday of May, going the mile and a eighth distance. Unlike the Derby, only 14 can reach the starting gate and of course the distance is an eighth of a mile shorter. While California Chrome looks to be the "horse to beat" in the Derby, I can't take him at a "odds-on" price. But in the Oaks, the favorite looks to be all of that and a short price. Untapable, trained by Steve Asmussen goes into the race with two solid, open length victories at the Fairgrounds this winter in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes and Fairgrounds Oaks, both at a mile and sixteenth. Both wins totaled over 17 lengths and not another of the other 13 hopefuls have had to two races compared to her. Untapable can sit close to the pace, which will include speed horses like; Fashion Plate, My Miss Sophia and Sugar Shock. I'll be looking to use closers underneath her like; Rosalind, Ria Antonia and Got Lucky. The latter; Got Lucky may have a big shot to upset at a price. Runner-up to Untapable two starts back at the Fairgrounds and recently second best at Aqueduct behind My Miss Sophia in the Gazelle, she has already been this distance last Fall as a two year old in the Demoiselle losing my just a neck. So with this the last column before the Derby, I'll give my early Oaks picks today with; Untapable - Got Lucky - Aurelia's Belle as my play.

Speaking of early, the 2014 Saratoga Racecourse schedule was released this past week with purses increased for the big stakes and new races added, including a New York bred day at the Spa. Both the Travers for 3-year-olds and the Whitney for older horses received significant purse increases over their 2013 levels, from $1 million and $750,000 respectively, to $1.25 million for Travers and $1.5 million for the Whitney. On Sunday, August 24 the best New York-breds will be showcased when the Spa will host the inaugural Saratoga Showcase Day; featuring the Albany Handicap, West Point Handicap. Yaddo Stakes, Fleet Indian, Funny Cide, and Seeking the Ante races. These races will be the day after the Travers Stakes. Some of the new races for 2014 are; the Shine Again for filly and mare going 7 furlongs on dirt (7/21), De La Rose also for filly & mares at one mile on turf (8/2) and the male counterpart; Lure going the same distance & surface on the same day, the Tenski on the weeds at a mile for 3 year old fillies (8/11), the Alydar for older horses going the route distance of a mile and an eighth (8/17), the Summer Colony same distance as the Alydar filly & mare counterpart (8/18) and Tale of the Cat, six furlongs for older horses sprinting (8/22). There is a stakes race everyday for the 40 day meet starting July 18th Friday through Labor Day on September 1st.

The Churchill Downs summer meet kicks off this evening with the Derby Trail at one mile (8th race, post 10pm) which at one time (long ago) was a prep race for the Kentucky Derby one week later. It's likely the #2 - Chitu will scratch and run in the Kentucky Derby next week, this makes Bayern (#1) the speed from the rail and likely favorite. Spot (#9) was no factor stretching out last time in the Florida Derby after a closing victory in the seven furlong Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park. A longshot to use here may be Laddie Boy (#7) who set the pace on the polytrack last time out at Keeneland in the off-the-turf Transylvania Stakes and has run well over the Churchill dirt strip as a two year old. My selections for the Derby Trail - Spot (#9) , Bayern (#1), Laddie Boy (#7).

Looking forward to the Derby ....... a few things to consider

With the new Kentucky Derby format point system, horses have lined up for positions in the starting gate. We have no clear cut "favorite" this year and with the defection of Florida Derby winner; Constitution this week because of injury, another slot opened up in the field of twenty runners. As of this writing, Uncle Sigh moves into the field if he chooses to go. With two weeks out, here are a few things to consider when looking for a winner the First Saturday in May. Post positions play a big role too, but we have a little insight now with the runners we know that will race.

Lightly raced runners such as Bayern (#26) and Social Inclusion (#27) on the list are wanting to get in, but with no experience as juvenile runners they seem up against it with the history of this race. No unraced Kentucky Derby runner as a two year old has won since 1882 when Apollo did. With Constitution gone, the only contender left without two year old experience is Hoppertunity. But unlike the other mention runners who fit this criteria, Hoppertunity has had five races this year since his debut on January 4th at Santa Anita. In 1999, Fusaichi Peagsus made his debut on December 11th and broke his maiden on the 2nd day of January before winning the Kentucky Derby of 2000. He has been the closest horse to break this 131 year old jinx. He had four starts as a three year old, where Hoppertunity has had five. But, Fusaichi Pegasus was undefeated as a three year old going into the Derby. With this evenly matched group for this year's Run for the Roses, Hoppertunity rates a big chance on the First Saturday in May.

Synthetic tracks have played a big part on the Derby Trail the past few years and especially since Animal Kingdom won the Derby in 2011 first time on a "real" dirt surface. This year, we had a few reach the Derby starting gate with synthetic stake victories. We Miss Artie. Dance With Fate and Medal Count have all excelled on polytrack and the first two mention are winless on "real" dirt. Medal Count broke his maiden in a off-the-turf race at Ellis Park, his other two dirt tries weren't good. But contenders like; California Chrome, Vicar's in Trouble, Chitu, Midnight Hawk, Ring Weekend, General A Rod and Candy Boy all had either victories on that surface or in the money finishes. So, the polytrack runner can be considered on the Churchill strip in your plays.

Speed will be a major factor in this year's Kentucky Derby. Wire to wire prep race winners this year were; California Chrome (San Felipe), Vicar's in Trouble (Louisiana Derby), Wildcat Red (Fountain of Youth) and Ring Weekend (Tampa Bay Derby). These were all gate to wire victories. The question will be; who will set the pace and who will have the staying power to get the mile and a quarter distance. Front running winners of the Kentucky Derby are few and far between. You have to be a special horse to do this, is there one in this field this year? I tend to think not.

Even with the Kentucky Derby field pretty much set, there are two additional three year old preps today. While most likely none of these runners will be going to the Derby (the one exception; Midnight Hawk) these two races may produce horses to look for in the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown; the Preakness Stakes. At Hawthorne Park in Chicago, is the Illinois Derby at a mile and an eighth. The mention; Midnight Hawk (#3) gets the call here as my top pick, but if he throws in a "dud" effort most likely he will skip the Derby in two weeks. Horses to use underneath him are; King Cyrus (#5) and Global Strike (#7). Back at Keeneland, the mile and a sixteenth; Lexington Stakes has the rest of the three year olds who didn't get into the Blue Grass Stakes last week. Top pick here is; Mr. Speaker (#1) from the Shug McGaughey barn, trying the polytrack for the first time. Ami's Holiday (#7) is my second pick coming off the layoff with good synthetic form at Woodbine. Divine Oath (#6) was an also-eligible in last week's Blue Grass Stakes and tries the poly and stretches out today, he rounds out my selections.

Final Derby prep action & remembering a dear friend

It's three weeks before the big day for thoroughbred racing, on the big stage; the Kentucky Derby. The last two major prep races are this weekend, including my current favorite for this year's Run for the Roses and a big field prep which will be contested the final time on polytrack.

At Keeneland Racetrack in Kentucky, the mile and eighth Blue Grass Stakes (11th) gets a full field of 14 runners, even with one "also eligible" runner. This will be the final running of this event on a synthetic surface, since Keeneland will be going back to "real" dirt this Fall. It remains to be seen if any of this field has a legitimate shot in the Kentucky Derby on dirt. But from a wagering standpoint, this race could give you a nice bankroll for the First Saturday in May. The 3-1 morning line favorite is Bobby's Kitten (#5) trying the polytrack surface for the first time in his career. This speedy Ramsey / Brown turf runner will most likely go to the Derby with a victory today. I'll definitely go against him here at those odds with my top selection; Asserting Bear (#1) who in his last start closed in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park going this same distance on polytrack. With several speedsters entered here, his late closing kick might just work today at his 15-1 morning line odds. For 2nd, I'll go with a recent winner here last week in the off-the-turf Transylvania Stakes; Medal Count (#13). He looked sharp and drew off to win going a sixteenth of a mile shorter in only his second synthetic track start. Coastline (#11) will round out my trifecta after just missing in the above mention Spiral Stakes.

At Oaklawn Park, they are running their marquee race of the meet - the grade I Arkansas Derby at a mile and a eighth. Here I'm going with my top Kentucky Derby prospect (at this writing) Tapiture (#3). This consistent runner trained by Steve Asmussen has been in-the-money all his six lifetime starts. He got out kicked in his last start by Hoppertunity in the Rebel Stakes, but had a sharp victory coming off a layoff in the Southwest Stakes here at Oaklawn. In the runner-up spot, I'm going with the other horse who was in that photo with the other above two mentioned horses; Ride on Curlin (#4). Another consistent three year old, he was game on the inside in said above race and should be a price again. Commissioner (#6) gets one more chance today as my third selection. He has disappointed in his last two stakes starts and races at his fifth track in six lifetime starts.

On a personal note, tomorrow is the birthday of best friend; the late Frank Colvin. Frank past away last December after a long illness and our friendship span nearly forty years. Whether it was Cub Scouts or Little League in our youth or our love of collecting baseball cards and going to concerts later in life, Frank was a good friend to me throughout the years. We spent a lot of good times together in the 80's and began a partnership as D.J's in the 90's. Also like myself, Frank enjoyed wagering on the ponies and going to the races. We took many trips to Saratoga and in 2000 made a trek to Woodbine Racetrack in Toronto and Finger Lakes on our way back to the Mohawk Valley. Frank also ran a few good handicapping tournaments which were very popular with our friends in the Fort Plain / Canajoharie area. He would be the first to "bust my chops" if my selections didn't win and would call me the "king of favorites" with some of my picks. But, he would also be the first to give me credit with a "big" score, especially the day I won the Funny Cide wager from 2003 Preakness. I wanted to mention him in my column and stress that friends last forever, even though they aren't with us in body anymore. Happy Birthday Frank, miss you!

Round #2 of the MAJOR three year old prep races for Derby '14!

You know what they say; the road (you know where) is paved with best intentions. Well, the road to the Kentucky Derby can be "hell" for both owners and trainers, but the trail to get there for the horse can be a simple one, if you race those prep and win, your in! Last year, the path to the first Saturday in May changed somewhat for a horse having a spot in the starting gate among the other twenty runners. In past years, a runner had to earn graded stakes money to guarantee a spot in the starting gate. The bigger the prep race victory, the more guaranteed that your horse would be among the twenty racing.

Last year, the Derby committee changed the criteria for the three year olds to gain entrance to the Kentucky Derby. A point system was established for the intended Derby hopefuls with prep race victories, starting as two year olds (10 points), 50 points in Derby preps up to the Florida Derby and 100 points in the final major preps. This was done to put more emphasis on horses winning the prep races, than horses that won early on the trail and skipped prep races or had sub par efforts in them. Last year, the system worked great with all the prep winning horses making it to the gate for the Derby. This year is been a little different so far.

Lightly raced three year olds like; Hoppertunity. Chitu and recent Florida Derby winner; Constitution all got 100 points in recent victories and earned a spot in the starting gate. For established horses with two year old form like; Cairo Prince and Candy Boy, the story is a little different. Top rated Cairo Prince finished a rather dull fourth coming off a layoff and stands 16th on the list of 20 who will make the starting field. With only 24 points, he's going to need some help to get a place in the gate. Today, Candy Boy races in the Santa Anita Derby and he has only 10 points putting him 28th on the list. An effort like Cairo Prince's from last weekend for him, and he'll be looking on the outside in!


We have two major prep races today in New York and California. With no solid standout last weekend in both the Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby, maybe the Wood Memorial or Santa Anita Derby will give us a early Derby favorite.


At Aqueduct, 11 runners go forward in the mile and eighth - Wood Memorial with the third rematch between Samraat and Uncle Sigh. So far, Samraat has bested Uncle Sigh both times in the grade III - Withers & Gotham Stakes. Today, we are on the main track where those two previous races were on the inner-track. New shooter shippers like; Kristo from California and Florida sensation; Social Inclusion could be the main danger to the home track runners. I'm looking for a pace melt down here with the closers taking advantage. My selections for the Wood are : Kid Cruz (#1) - only winner at this distance and has won over the track. Harpoon (#4) - had a wide late rally in the Gotham and gets Johnny V. in the irons. Samraat (#8) - has had two gutsy victories here, but the added distance could be his undoing today. Aqueduct (11th) 1-4-8-11.

The Santa Anita Derby is a little more clear cut. Eight runners are entered with two maidens, turf allowance and recent maiden winner. That leaves four runners with trips over the Santa Anita strip in graded stakes competition. My top pick here goes to recent Oaklawn Park - Rebel Stakes winner; Hopperunity (#3). This is fifth start of the year, broke his maiden here and was gutsy in his last victory, closing from the outside. California Chrome (#5) - rides a three race winning streak into this race, while making his tenth career start. Candy Boy (#6) - hasn't raced since early February and needs a 1-2-3 finish today to make the Derby field of 20 runners. Santa Anita (8th) 3-5-6-7