Mark Hoffman's 2016 graded Kentucky Derby selections

Nyquist (#13) Gutierrez / O'Neill (3-1)

This son of Uncle Mo comes from the connections who won the 2012 edition of this race, undefeated in his seven career starts, he will be trying to become the first undefeated horse to win the Run for the Roses since Big Brown in 2008, this two year old Juvenile champion is the horse to beat and his credentials are just as good as American Pharoah's one year ago.

Suddenbreakingnews (#2) Quinonez / Von Hemel (20-1)

This dead come from the clouds closer rallied in his three starts this year at Oaklawn Park for today's start and his connections are relative new to the Triple Crown trail, he will benefit from a hot pace up front and can land a piece at big odds, the double digit longshot you need to fill out your exotic plays!

Exaggerator (#11) KJ Desormeaux / JK Desormeaux (8-1)

This hard hitting son of Curlin had a breakout victory in the Santa Anita Derby by winning over six lengths on a sloppy sealed racing surface, the most visually impressive prep race victories, he'll try to turn the tables on my top selection who he's yet to beat when they faced each other, a must use in your exotic plays .

Gun Runner (#5) Geroux / Asmussen (10-1)

Top Derby point winner this year, he won both his starts at the Fairgrounds as prep races for today, winner over the track also, he may be overlooked in the wagering and offers solid value in this race, would be no surprise winning here!

My Man Sam (#6) I. Ortiz / Brown (20-1)

Lightly raced runner is getting better in each start, his come from behind running style mirrors my second choice, look for him to continue to improve and be running late, lots upside with this runner.

Shagaf (#16) Rosario / Pletcher (20-1)

Came up a clunker in his final prep race the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on muddy sealed track, may have not liked the that racing surface and I'm willing to forgive that effort, will be a square price today.

Outwork (#15) Velazquez / Pletcher (15-1)

Nearly went wire to wire on the Aqueduct sloppy sealed surface in the Wood Memorial, draws favorable outside post and with his speed could be dangerous, may be the "wise guy" horse today!

Mohaymen (#14) Alvarado / McLaughlin (10-1)

The main competition to my top selection early on the Kentucky Derby trail with an undefeated record until his last start, didn't fire in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream on a good race track, willing to forget that effort..... but must move forward!

Brody's Cause (#19) Saez / Romans (12-1)

Returned to the winner's circle in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland in his last start, his grinder running style bodes well in the Kentucky Derby, would be no surprise to get a piece here, he never seems to take money in his starts..... nor will he today.

Destin (#9) Castellano / Pletcher (15-1)

Winner of both races at Tampa Bay Downs this prep season, this son of Giant's Causeway has fallen under the radar because of the gap between his last race and today, that's a lot to overcome, but has drawn a favorable post..... your call.

Creator (#3) Santana / Asmussen (10-1)

Finally put it together in his last start, the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park rallying late for victory, took six starts to break his maiden and may be rounding to form, tough to gauge with only two victories in eight career starts, mixed signals.

Mor Spirit (#17) Stevens / Baffert (12-1)

Second best in last two prep races in California, failed to move forward..... but is consistent, his post has never won the Kentucky Derby, not using this one in any of my plays.

Whitmore (#10) Espinoza / Moquett (20-1)

Raced evenly in all three starts at Oaklawn Park, another who has failed to move forward along the Derby prep trail, no hat-track for jockey Victor Espinoza today!

Mo Tom (#4) Lanerie / Amoss (20-1)

Trouble plague runner got into the field late and has had an world of excuses both on track and by his trainer, can't see this one being a real threat off his prep races, leaving this one off all my tickets.

Danzing Candy (#20) Smith / Sise (15-1)

The wire to wire winner of the San Felipe Stakes, he wilted on the off-track in Santa Anita Stakes last, draws the far outside and may be the main speed, question whether he wants to go this far, toss.

Tom's Ready (#12) Hernandez / Stewart (30-1)

Second best at a huge price behind Gun Runner in the Louisiana Derby, with only a maiden victory in nine career starts, this one seems very up against it versus this grade I field.

Majesto (#18) Jaramillo / Delgado (30-1)

Much like Tom's Ready above, this runner was second behind Nyquist in the Florida Derby at a price coming off his maiden breaker, the connections here are also new to the Kentucky Derby scene, can't see him improving enough to be a factor.

Trojan Nation (#1) Gryder / Gallagher (50-1)

This runner who is bred to run all day has yet to break his maiden, the first runner entered to the Derby like this since Nationalore in 1993, came up the rail to photo for 2nd in the Wood Memorial, drawing the rail doesn't help his chances either, toss!

Lani (#8) Take / Matsunaga (30-1)

This Kentucky bred, Japanese based runner won in the desert the UAE Derby to gain entry to this race, the son of Tapit can be a head case on the track, can't see him having any shot with his antics.

Oscar Nominated (#7) Leparoux / Maker (50-1)

Winner of the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park on polytrack to get points for this race, originally not nominated to this race and was supplemented, a Ramsey runner with NO CHANCE here!


Also eligible : Laoban (#21) & Cherry Wine (#22) ~ if horses scratch

The 1st 2016 Kentucky Derby Dozen .......... 2 with 10 others!

Last week, we talked about the top two leaders on this year's Kentucky Derby trail; Mohaymen & Nyquist and their possible clash in the Florida Derby a little more than a month away. Now, I have compiled the first Derby dozen of 2016 with these two leading the way. To be honest, coming up with twelve horses nine weeks out of the First Saturday in May was a bit tough. No other runners than the top two scream out, Kentucky Derby winner. We have two prep races today, the Tampa Bay Derby and San Felipe Stakes. Nearly half of the dozen (five) will be racing today, hoping to make their mark and stay on the list.



The stronger of the two races (quality wise) is the San Felipe Stakes, a prep for the final west coast Derby race; the Santa Anita Derby. Going the mile and a sixteenth distance, three contenders on the list are going here. Bob Baffert's best prospect, Mo Spirit (ranked 3rd) meets Exaggerator (ranked 5th) who ran well as a two year old and goes for the Texas Red connections of last year; the Desormeaux brothers. Add the undefeated California bred; Smokey Image (ranked 12th) and we have the best from the left coast. The remaining four entered here all rate a chance coming off either winning or in the money finishes. I'm leaning toward the runner with the most overall experience making his second start off a layoff, Exaggerator (#7). Wide open event here.



Down in Florida, the Tampa Bay Derby is the better betting race. It has the Sam Davis prep winner; Destin (ranked 10th) who is trained by Todd Pletcher versus Brody's Cause (ranked 11th) who is making his seasonal debut in this race. This son of Giant's Causeway, trained by Dale Romans ran third in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile and may be the best runner to get the mile and a quarter distance the first Saturday in May. While the west coast prep has more well known names, the Tampa Bay Derby offers betting value. The two ranked runners I'll use underneath my top two selections; Riker (#6) & Rafting (#2). My top selection makes his three year old debut and under new trainer; Mark Casse. He made his dirt debut last year in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile where he set the pace and faded late. My second selection ran a good 2nd with a wide trip in the Sam Davis Stakes. A superfecta box of 2-6-7-8 and exacta of 2-6 are the play here.



As for the remainder of the dozen, Shagaf (ranked 6th) makes the dozen with a "workman" like victory in the Gotham Stakes last week and will be headed to the Wood Memorial next and Zulu (ranked 7th) punched his ticket to the Florida Derby, running second. Both Gun Runner (ranked 4th) & Greenpointcrusader (ranked 9th) are heading to the bayou in the Louisiana Derby at the end of the month and longshot winner of the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn, Suddenbreakingnews (ranked 8th) will next start in the Rebel Stakes. Here's the complete list of Hickory Hill Hoff's ~ AT THE POST 2016 Kentucky Derby dozen with my odds and next prep start. 1) Mohaymen (4-1) ~ Florida Derby. 2) Nyquist (6-1) ~ Florida Derby. 3) Mo Spirit ~ (10-1) San Felipe Stakes. 4) Gun Runner (12-1) ~ Louisiana Derby. 5) Exaggerator (12-1) ~ San Felipe. 6) Shagaf (15-1) ~ Wood Memorial. 7) Zulu (15-1) ~ Florida Derby. 8) Suddenbreakingnews (20-1) ~ Rebel Stakes. 9) Greenpointcrusader (20-1) ~ Louisiana Derby. 10) Destin (20-1) ~Tampa Bay Derby. 11) Brody's Cause (20-1) ~ Tampa Bay Derby. 12) Smokey Image (30-1) ~ San Felipe.

My 18th year in print, along the Triple Crown trail

The vacation is over, I'm back on track! After my usual three month sabbatical from the sport of kings during the winter months, I'm ready to start my eighteen year covering thoroughbred action for the Amsterdam Recorder. It's also marks the thirtieth year for myself following the sport I love so much. Well, the past three months went quickly. Our unconventional mild winter has been a welcomed plus for this fifty one year old body and also a quiet one on the wagering front. I also took a sabbatical from wagering expect for the sparse stakes races on the weekends. It has been also tough to wager on certain tracks which have runners with Triple Crown and Kentucky Derby implications. I say that because my only wagering platform (Capital OTB) doesn't cover tracks like the Fairgrounds and Oaklawn Park because of contractual problems. I was told that this has been in effect since last summer, but only now when these tracks play a part in the Derby trail had I realized that. This even effected the first Kentucky Derby Future wagering pool. So, I had to open a new wagering outlet so I can keep abreast of those Derby prep races. This may affect the handle that Capital OTB receives from it bettors who are forced to go elsewhere to wager a particular track.

It was about a year ago, when our Triple Crown hero; American Pharoah was making his three year old debut. The rest is history and 2015 was a year we will soon not forget! This year, the crop seems much more wide open at this point. This was evident in the first Kentucky Derby Future pool where the "all others" field wager was a nice 5-2 at close. This has been the highest odds for that position since wagering was first available in 1999. Even though the public did not send the money in for that particular play, there are two runners at this point who standout in the 2016 crop for the First Saturday in May.

The Breeder's Cup Juvenile Champion; Nyquist and undefeated Mohaymen are the two top runners on every Derby list at this present moment. These two horses are on a collision course in a few weeks at Gulfstream Park in the Florida Derby. Both runners are undefeated, but have taken different paths so far to get to this point. Nyquist won his first start this year going seven furlongs at Santa Anita Park in the San Vicente Stakes. He's six for six now and will ship east for his next start and stretch out. Some question his ability to go a mile and a quarter the First Saturday in May because of his breeding. Nevertheless, he is the real deal and Doug O'Neill's best runner since I'll Have Another from four years ago. Mohaymen is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin for the Godolphin blue who last year campaigned Frosted on the Triple Crown trail. He is five for five and has won both starts at Gulfstream Park this winter. This son of Tapit is regarded as the leader in this year's group of three year old runners. These two horses are the leaders at this point, but I'm thinking otherwise with some other runner coming to the forefront in up coming weeks.

This week we have only one Kentucky Derby prep race and that's at Aqueduct in the mile and sixteenth Gotham Stakes. This race hasn't produced a true Kentucky Derby contender since 1989 with Easy Goer. Since then, only Stay Thirsty in 2011 has won a triple crown race (Belmont) and also was victorious in this race. Primarily this race has become a prep for the final New York race for the Derby, the Wood Memorial. A field of eight are assembled and really only one runner with high expectations for the First Saturday in May. Shagaf (#2) trained by Chad Brown has won his first two starts by a combine eight lengths well clear both times. This Shadwell son of Bernardini takes the next logical step here today versus stakes company for the first time. Sunny Ridge (#7) is the most accomplished in the field with a victory last out in the Withers Stakes which is a prep race for today. Both Pletcher runners, Mo Power (#5) and Rally Cry (#8) rate a chance here being lightly raced and meeting relatively soft competition.

Santa Anita 2015-16 ~ opening day winter meet stakes selections

Daytona Stakes ~ Santa Anita (4th) six & half furlongs downhill turf course

No Silent (#12) - last seen a no factor 6th in the Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint going a bit shorter, won the Eddie D. in previous start at this distance, class factor.
Richard's Boy (#1) - sharp in last three starts going shorter, also won over this course & draws inside post.

Exotic & multi-race runners : Big Cazanova (#2) - Alert Bay (#7) - Bench Warrant (#8)


Mathis Brothers Mile ~ Santa Anita (6th) one mile turf

Vigilante (#9) - this stone cold closer rallied going longer in last two starts in winning efforts, steps up to stakes action today, square price.
OM (#10) - weakened in the Hollywood Derby in game effort last start, the horse to beat & has victory over American Pharoah earlier in his career.

Exotic & multi-race runners : Perfectly Majestic (#3) - Mr. Brightstone (#6) - Soul Driver (#5)


La Brea Stakes ~ Santa Anita (7th) seven furlongs dirt (three yr.old fillies)

Cavorting (#3) - rallied as the lukewarm favorite in the Breeder's Filly & Mare Sprint going this distance, horse to beat in this return spot.
Hot City Girl (#2) - razor sharp NY bred filly seeks fourth victory in row, the controlling speed here.

Exotic & multi-race runners : Birdatthewire (#1) - Ben's Dutchess (#6) - Maybellene (#5)


Malibu Stakes ~ Santa Antia (8th) seven furlongs dirt (three year olds)

Marking (#2) - two for two in short career with impressive victories, scratched from the Cigar Mile a month ago at Aqueduct for this spot, acid test today.
Watershed (#3) - return to his winning ways at Keeneland versus allowance company, he mirrors stablemate top selection here in many ways, Godolphin value exacta box!

Exotic & multi-race runners : Runhappy (#4) - El Kabeir (#6) - Lord Nelson (#7)

American Pharoah & Saratoga success highlight the 2015 season ........ hard act to follow for next year

With this being the second to last column of 2015, I thought we would look back at this banner year for the sport and if the year can be duplicated in 2016. Needless to say, the world of thoroughbred racing in 2015 was one for the record books. We had the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. The excitement started in March when the two year old champion of 2014; American Pharoah made his three year old debut at Oaklawn Park. It began a journey that would have the racing world mesmerized straight through the end of summer.

Winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes was one thing that several other horses had accomplished since the last Triple Crown winner. But, none had done the "hat trick" of winning all three. The first leg was the toughest and most impressive of his quest for the crown, the Kentucky Derby. In this race, he proved to be the goods with a workman like victory in the toughest of the Triple Crown races. In Preakness, he got the sloppy track he loves and relished it with a impressive victory. Two down, one to go and thirty seven years in the waiting!

The Belmont Stakes , the "test of champions" was just that with a tour de force and a unchallenged victory. It couldn't be easier for this son of Pioneer of the Nile, completing the three race test. After a minor hiccup at Saratoga in the Travers Stakes, he ended his racing career much like he won the Triple Crown. A uncontested win in the Breeder's Cup Classic and becoming the first "Grand Slam" winner of thoroughbred racing.

American Pharoah will be a very tough act to follow for this year and years to come. There isn't a stick out two year old so far this season and a runner will need to get on a roll to match American Pharoah. But then again, American Pharoah had it easy from early Fall to late winter and still pulled off history. It will take a lot to capture the masses who do not follow thoroughbred racing if the Kentucky Derby winner of 2016, doesn't win the second leg of the Triple Crown. I think it's a longshot if any horse comes even close to what American Pharoah accomplished in 2015, this upcoming year.

With what American Pharoah achieved on track and his appearance at the greatest racing venue in the world; Saratoga, it made it a banner season for NYRA's crown jewel track. The 40 days of Saratoga in 2015 may have been the best ever. The anticipation of a Triple Crown winner appearing there and great stakes racing were just two of the keys in Saratoga being the place to be this summer. But more so, the beautiful summer weather we endured here in upstate New York played a huge part. This was the biggest factor of success that may put the association in the "black" this year.

But, this year's home run for NYRA may not be duplicated if the weather and lack of any real thoroughbred superstar doesn't materialize in 2016. The golden goose is always the Saratoga meet. But the numbers from 2015 may be a once in a lifetime thing. Racing needed a year like this year for the sport. Whether it brought new fans to the sport or not is debatable. I wonder sometimes if thoroughbred racing didn't have the story of American Pharoah this year, would we just go through a year where the sport was carried by the hardcore, everyday players. After all, from now until early spring, horse racing will be regulated to just that; the everyday, hardcore players. I know I'll be doing my part in supporting the sport until the Triple Crown races this spring...... will you?

On top of the world, one moment ...... out the door the next.

Next to American Pharoah, the biggest story from this year's Breeder's Cup was the feel good story of trainer Maria Borell and her horse; Runhappy. The story began in mid August and the colt's rise to prominence two weeks ago was tempered only 24 hours later, when the fairytale story took an abrupt change.

When handicapping the Travers day race card during Saratoga, I saw an entry in the grade I - King's Bishop Stakes that got my attention. This three year old sprint race was loaded with many interesting runners and while going over the past performances, I recognized a name. There was a lightly raced colt who ran two huge races at Indiana Downs and Ellis Park and he earned two monster Beyer speed figures. I saw the name of the trainer and it rang a bell with me. Six year's ago when I first joined Facebook, I received a friend request from racing fan from the Syracuse area, who was also involved breeding horses and training them. That person was Maria Borell, the trainer of this impressive runner.

While stepping up in class, Runhappy showed his brilliant speed and was victorious in the grade I race at 11-1. Not only did his win give Maria her first stakes victory, it was the only runner in her barn. Maria, who has been a licensed trainer since 2013 had never had a victory, that was until Runhappy. This son of Super Saver has been everything to Maria, which has been chronicled on her Facebook page and throughout the thoroughbred world on the internet. After winning the King's Bishop, he followed that up at Keeneland with another sprint stakes victory and it was on to the Breeder's Cup Sprint.

Maria had made the "big time" with this horse and even was highlighted with an interview piece on NBC just before the race. In the race, Runhappy was made the favorite and he did not disappoint. While not showing his usual front end speed, he came slightly off the pace and found the winner's circle and giving Maria Borell the biggest day of her life. This thirty two year old naive of Syracuse, that relocated to Kentucky did something few trainers have ever achieved, take one horse and become a household name.

Happy smiles were all in the winner's circle from the connections, especially Maria. But there was one face that didn't look that joyful. That was from the sister in-law and former trainer of Runhappy; Laura Wohlers. Wohlers trained Runhappy in his first two career starts and then the horse was transferred to Maria. It was Maria who took this horse to the top of his game. But less than 24 hours later, Runhappy was no longer under the care of Maria Borell.

Owner James McIngvale informed Maria that Runhappy would be turned over to Wohlers immediately and the joy of less than 24 hours would turn into sadness. No reason was given for the change in trainers and rumors were abound. The racing world was shocked as much as Maria, having Runhappy taken away from her. A few days later, Maria made a statement to the press and at first echoed the sentiments that McIingvale said; it was a mutual agreement that she would part ways with the horse. But, soon the truth would come out and it was anything but mutual.

She has filed a lawsuit against McIngvales's stable for money owed to her from Runhappy's victory in the Sprint, breach of contract and defamation of character. As of the writing of this column, she has not been paid any of the money from Runhappy's Breeder's Cup victory. The feel good story of Runhappy and Maria Borell didn't have a happy ending. The racing world has embraced Maria Borell and defended her, while the villains are the McIngvales for their actions. This story is far from over and the unfortunate thing is that the bond between Runhappy and Maria Borell is no more. This is the sad result of owners who don't know when they have it good, with winning results. Unfortunately, blood is thicker than water.

The perfect Hollywood script ........ and can't make this stuff up!

Some may call it a "fairytale ending", a glimpse of greatness we have not seen in decades. A thoroughbred who captured the minds and hearts of the American public. One horse who accomplished something no other has done since the heyday of the sport over 35+ years ago. Yes, it's been that type of season for one, American Pharoah. And the masses have been pumped up!

I cannot added much more than what this horse has done the past six months. Revitalizing horse racing to new levels. Other than his little "hiccup" in the Travers at Saratoga, he did everything right. All the people around him, also did everything right with campaign of this animal. But most of all, the racing gods were on this horse's side in two of his "life alternating" races that changed the face of the sport. Those were the Belmont Stakes and Breeder's Cup Classic. There is no doubt in my mind that, these two races had a perfect scripted Hollywood ending.

You can't deny what this horse has done on the track, his efforts and results speak for them self. But, you also can't deny that American Pharoah had it his own way not once, but twice in the two biggest races of his career. He worked hard to earn his Kentucky Derby win, he relished the "off going" in the Preakness Stakes and was victorious. But in the Travers Stakes, he was pushed and came up short. The key word here is; "pushed", made to work in his effort that day. But, when it came to completing his Triple Crown bid in the Belmont Stakes, everything went his way. Once again this past Saturday afternoon in the Breeder's Cup Classic, it was " Deja Vu all over again!"

If a horse with the talent of American Pharoah is allowed to set his own race fractions and not be pushed by other runners, 99% of the time that horse will win! There is no denying that in the Belmont Stakes, he had everything his way going the marathon distance of a mile and a half. No other three year old male has been in the same class as he this year. In the Travers though, Frosted made him work just a wee bit and the results showed it was just enough for him to be defeated.

But, in the Breeder's Cup Classic it wasn't going to happen again. The whole completion of the race, set up for him to show his greatness. Here are the examples; the choice of the speedy Liam's Map to race in the Breeder's Cup Mile the day before. Yes, this older more seasoned runner at the top of his game would have given American Pharoah a target to chase and just may have made him work more going the mile and quarter. The mare; Beholder who has a similar racing style to American Pharoah, would have added to the mix if she didn't declare from the race a few days before. These two major defections from this race, gave the green light for American Pharoah to do his thing without any competition.

And we know, the rest is history and the fairytale ending is completed. But, I truly believe that if things were different in both races and the competition engaged Pharaoh like he was in the Travers, this great horse possibly would not be dubbed the "greatest" horse in our lifetime. Only speculation on my part and I've taken a lot of heat for my stance. American Pharoah came along at the right time and was the right horse. His talents showed that on the track. But we as handicappers and students of the sport, tend to analysis things more. We do it with horses that win races. American Pharaoh is no different in my opinion. While I agree that he changed the sport in 2015, it would have been interesting if his two biggest races of his career, which altered history, were more like his Travers race and he had to work for that victory. That we'll never know!