Mark Hoffman's 2013 Kentucky Derby Selections

Normandy Invasion #5 (Brown/Castellano) 12-1

I was looking for a horse that fit the Kentucky Derby profile,
this Chad Brown trainee only shows a maiden victory.... but
has a running style that cries out for the Derby distance, especially
sharp this past week training at Churchill Downs.... he has extreme
value with his morning line odds and gets my slight top pick to upset.

Orb #16 (McGaughey/Rosario) 7-2

One of the most "hyped" horses in recent memory, the hot jockey and
legendary trainer may vie for favoritism when all is said and done, has
improved each race, rock solid going the route distances and would be no
surprise winning this race and getting Shug that elusive Kentucky Derby
victory!
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Value and longshot runners to use with my top 2 selections :

Overanalynze #9 (Pletcher/Bejarano) 15-1
Lines of Battle #11 (O'Brien/Moore) 30-1
Palace Malice #10 (Pletcher/Smith) 20-1
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Exotic plays to use underneath, but not in the win spot :

Revolutionary #3 (Pletcher/Borel) 10-1
Verrazano #14 (Pletcher/Velazquez) 4-1
Itsmyluckyday #12 (Plesa/Trujillo) 15-1
Mylute #6 (Amoss/Napravnik) 15-1

2013 KENTUCKY DERBY contenders (3/7)

1) Flashback - perfect in his two career starts, steps it up vs. a modest field this Saturday in the San Felipe at Santa Anita
2) Super Ninety Nine - loved the slop in the Southwest Stakes, this Baffert runner makes next start in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn (3/16)
3) Vyjack - made a believer out of me with a new dimension from off the pace winning the Gotham Stakes, the Wood Memorial is up next (4/6)
4) Orb - loved his running style victory in the FOTY Stakes over a Gulfstream speed favoring strip, stays in down south for the Florida Derby (3/30)
5) Itsmyluckyday - won the Holy Bull Stakes early on the Triple Crown trail,consistent as they come, he tries to prove himself in the Florida Derby next start.
6) Revolutionary - came from the clouds with wild trip in the Withers Stakes on the Aqueduct Inner-track, trips like that are tough in the Derby, heads to the Fairgrounds next for the Louisiana Derby.
7) Verrazano - won two starts by over 24 lengths, gets the "acid" test in the Tampa Bay Derby this Saturday, may be the real deal!
8) Shanghai Bobby - 2nd best in seasonal debut in the Holy Bull Stakes, gets only ONE more start before the Derby (Fla.Derby), question his ability to get the mile & a quarter.
9) Normandy Invasion - broke slowly in the Risen Star Stakes in first start of the year, ships back to NY for the Wood Memorial for next start.
10) Overanalyze - came up a dud in the Gotham Stakes as the favorite, may go in either the Wood or Arkansas Derby next time out.

11) Goldencents - winner of the Sham Stakes three months ago, faces Flashback in the San Felipe, must move forward.
12) Den's Legacy - 2nd best behind Flashback in last, ships to Oaklawn Park for start in the Rebel Stakes, makes 11th career start.
13) Shakin It Up - sharp win in the San Vicente going seven panels, Baffert takes him to the Sunland Derby for his stretching out next start.
14) Falling Sky - went wire to wire in the Sam F. Davis Stakes in last start, tries to carry his speed to victory in the Tampa Bay Derby going the same distance.
15) Ive Struck A Nerve - was 135-1 coming from the clouds to win the Risen Star Stakes in last start, a "bomber" won a 3yr.old stake there last year too!
16) Code West - just missed to above horse in interesting trip, another consistent runner.
17) Palace Malice - right behind top two with 3rd place finish, looks like a Pletcher 2nd stringer.
18) Oxbow - weakened late to three horses above after having the lead, don't know what to make of the 2013 edition of the Risen Star Stakes.
19) Dynamic Sky - chased Falling Sky in last start, faces him again & Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby .
20) Delhomme - unseen since setting the pace in the Remsen Stakes tiring to 3rd, makes seasonal debut in the Rebel Stakes.
21) Uncaptured - won the Kentucky Juvenile Cup last Fall at Churchill Downs, unseen since then & looks like that was a negative race.

That's a WRAP on 2012..... AT THE POST finale for the year!

With this being the last column of the 2012 racing season for myself, we'll look back at three important events in the sport of thoroughbred racing. It was a year where the possibly of the 13th Triple Crown Champion was less than a day away, the future of NYRA was now in the hands of the governor and we concluded the twenty year run of a local horse racing show on cable.

About every March, when this column gets it's usual start of the year, the three year old runners and the road to the first Saturday in May; the Kentucky Derbystarts. We gather together 20 horses going for the elusive chance of winning the Triple Crown. With three races, five weeks apart, it a rarity that hasn't been accomplished since 1978. This year, a California based horse with a little know Canadian transplant jockey and a sometime controversial trainer was looking to make history in the Belmont Stakes.

I'll Have Another, under the guidance of Mario Gutierrez and Doug O'Neill won the first two legs of racing's Triple Crown ( Kentucky Derby & Preakness) and was only a day away from possibly completing that shot in the Belmont Stakes. Looking like the first horse in 34 years to possibly win the crown, a startling announcement was made a little over 24 hours before the race, that I'll Have Another would scratch from the race and be retired. This once again, dashed the hopes of all racing fans and will cause this handicapper to NEVER look forward to another Triple Crown winner in thoroughbred racing or even try to predicted it.

Just before the start of racing at Saratoga this past summer, a announcement was made by the Governor of New York; Andrew Cuomo that the organization that runs thoroughbred racing in New York; NYRA would be getting a through overall change in how it would be run with a new oversight board and committee made up of appointees from his office. This would guide the entity that has been plagued the past few years in red ink to re-organize and be more "respectable" in eyes of the public and the governor's office.

The new members of the NYRA board were named, yet the organization remains under control of NYRA and for the first time in years, showed a profit and was in the "black" this past quarter of this year. With racing heading into the winter months in New York, it will be very interesting if the positive trend remains with the group and if the governor's office will stand back and let NYRA do, what NYRA was met to do and that is conduct and run thoroughbred racing in this state.

The racing year ended on a great note with this year's Breeder's Cup at Santa Anita Park and a exciting look toward next year with many stars returning. But on the Saturday of the Breeder's Cup, I got a sad message that a very popular thoroughbred racing show on local cable was coming to a end after 20 years. 'Trackfacts' on Capital OTB channel hosted by Tom Amello and Nick Kling had it's last show on the network. Started by Tom, it was created from his on track Saratoga sheet which has been a staple there since the late eighties. It first started as a 30 minute taped show on the network and grew to a ninety minute "live" show with his long time co-host and good friend of mine; Nick Kling as his weekly sidekick.

Though the past 20 years, Tom and Nick interviewed many key people in the sport of thoroughbred racing and have been a driving force in the educated of thoroughbred racing fans in the Capital District and beyond. Both very good personal friends of mine, I will truly miss their show on Capital OTB and wish them the best of luck in their future endeavors, the network WON'T be the same without them! Have a GREAT winter wagering, my racing fans and I'll see you guys in the spring..... AT THE POST !

Holidayfest @ NYRA 2012.....wrapping up the stakes season at the BIG "A"

It's Holidayfest at Aqueduct and the final BIG weekend of thoroughbred racing for 2012. With my 2nd to last column for this racing year, it's all about the handicapping... and that is my favorite part of what I've done for the last 14 years here at the Recorder. Coming off a GREAT Breeder's Cup weekend, we'll try to end the year with some good wagers, until we start looking forward to the Triple Crown season of 2013 in March of next year.

We got four graded stakes at Aqueduct today, two 2 year old races and two races for older runners. The Aqueduct 6th race is a grade II - Demoiselle Stakes for the young fillies at a mile & an eighth, in a race, that could be considered no more than a non-winners of one event. A VERY short field of six runners, with a Todd Pletcher entry (which includes Coconut Shrimp that raced Thanksgiving day and should be scratched) we get ONLY one horse who didn't break her maiden in her last start (Ruby Lips #6). The pick here is Emollient #2 who broke her maiden second time out going 7 furlongs. In a race that is wide open, she'll be my top pick with Unlimited Budget #1 , my second choice....it's a WIDE open event!

The boys are next up in the 7th race, going the same distance in the Remsen Stakes. Again we have a similar field with an Pletcher entry and a wide open field. Here, the Repole / Pletcher entry looks very tough and they will be my top selection (Micromanage & Overanalyze #1) with "class" seasoning and bigger things on the horizon next year. For 2nd, Chad Brown has a very good maiden breaker last time out by the name of; Normandy Invasion #9. Won by over 9 lengths going a mile in last start at Aqueduct, he figures here versus this group.

The grade I - Cigar Mile is up next as race #8 with a short evenly matched field. It's a perfect spot to take a chance with a very talented filly that could win top Sprinter of the Year honors with a victory here. Groupie Doll #7, comes off a convincing victory in the Breeder's Cup Filly & Mare Sprint going seven furlongs. She couldn't find an easier spot going against the boys in a spot for championship honors! Her "main danger" is the winner of this race, two years ago; Jersey Town #4. At 34-1 then, he isn't the runner that he used to be in the past, but is a classic miler and was a BIG winner for me many years ago when he broke his maiden in Gulfstream Park at 12-1. My top two horses (4-7) will be used with the 1/5/6 underneath (Stay Thirsty, Hymn Book and Coil).

We wrap up the stakes action in the 9th with Gazelle Stakes going the route distance of a mile and a eighth. I'm going with a price here and a runner that did me quite well at Saratoga this summer. Sea Island #5 won going this distance at the Spa in optional allowance company and goes from turf to dirt for today's race at 15-1 morning line odds (which she won at three starts back). Along with her in the "win" spot, I'll use Book Review #6, the probable favorite and first time going two turns and the #7 - Wandy's Girl who would be no surprise with her very impressive record of 18 career starts with 14 victories since shipping stateside.

The plays for this HOLIDAYFEST stakes cards are; a Grand Slam (6th) play (1/2 with 1/9 with 4/7 with 5/6/7) and pick 3 plays; (6th : 1/2 with 1/9 with 4/7) & (7th : 1/9 with 4/7 with 5/6/7) with win plays of Sea Hunter in the Gazelle and superfectas of 4/7 with 1/5/6 in the Cigar Mile (8th) & superfecta "key" in the Gazelle (9th)(5/6/7 with ALL in the 4th spot) ......GOOD LUCK!

2012 Breeder's Cup..... wrap up!

This year's biggest racing event; the Breeder's Cup World Championships, are now in the books! Two days of 15 races for all classes and on turf & dirt have been contested over the Santa Anita racing strip. While some racing categories have been decided, others still remain a bit blurry. Here are my thoughts on a few races that had a impact on year end honors and other events which I was successful in wagering.

Probably the most impressive two year old filly, could have beaten the "boys" sprinting a few races before she won the Juvenile Fillies race. Beholder; trained by Richard Mandella, went wire to wire in stretching out her speed to a route distance in victory. She was pre-entered in the Juvenile Sprint, but chose to face her own kind going a distance of ground. With the maiden; Hightail, trained by Hall of Famer; D.Wayne Lukas winning the short field in the Juvy. Sprint, Beholder would have won that race easily too!

In the Filly and Mare Turf, my heart and my wagering dollar was with a fantastic mare; Zagora, trained by Mechanicville native; Chad Brown. She's a mark of constancy since she shipped stateside and into Chad 's barn. Going into this race, she was a sentimental pick and my only question with her was, could she get the race distance. Well, she did and her price in return was a surprise too! Going off at odds of 9-1, Zagora has cemented Filly & Mare Turf Champion honors and was recently sold in auction after that victory for 2.5 million and returned to her homeland of France .

The feature race on Friday was the "Ladies" Classic or like many people still refer the race as; the Distaff, Royal Delta became a back to back winner and could get consideration as Horse of the Year off her unusual wire to wire victory. Friday was close to a "break even" day wagering for me with Zagora and marathon longshot winner; Calidoscopio, bailing me out.

Saturday's races got off to a wonderful start with my second place selection; George Vancouver winning the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf. Set off at odds of 9-1, this son of legendary Phipps runner; Versailles Treaty, he bulled his way to the lead and keyed a nice exacta box , triple box and dime superfecta result for my phone-a-bet account!

Never underestimate the power of a gutsy and hard hitting thoroughbred. That would sum up the victories of both; Little Mike in the Turf and Trinniberg in the Sprint. The speed of both these runners and will to win, garnered both them Breeder's Cup victories. If you followed both these runners throughout the season, you were well rewarded with winning mutual's of $36.60 and $29.40 respectably.

We finished the day with two wonderful and talented runners when, Wise Dan showed his possibly Horse of the Year like winning effort by dominating the Breeder's Cup Mile. This horse can win on grass, dirt, polytrack and with no standout this year in the thoroughbred world, his efforts could get him top horse honors. In the Classic, it was a ding-dong battle between the winner; Fort Larned and my selection; Mucho Macho Man. It was that half length win by Fort Larned that kept me from having an even BETTER 2012 Breeder's Cup finish, than I did!

Breeder's Cup 2012 ........ more "changes" in the wind!

The Breeder's Cup World Championships returns to the west coast and Santa Anita Park, for the first time in two years. The last time it was contested there, the main track had a synthetic racing surface. I did quite well with my handicapping in those races and showed my first Breeder's Cup profit in 2008. So, this year's races will be interesting from that stand point and also with the new medication rule for the juvenile runners. No two year old runner will be allowed to race on lasix in the Breeder's Cup this year. Lasix is a anti-bleeding medication given to thoroughbreds that could prevent bleed during the physical exertion of racing. Years ago, lasix was banned for all horses in New York . The exclusion of this med for the two year olds this year, may lead to all the Breeder's Cup competitors in future years.

This new ruling has prevented several trainers in shipping their young runners to California for these important year end two year old races. Nevertheless, both the juvenile races on the grass are wide open events. It's the three dirt races (for the juveniles) that have limited the size of the fields. But also, the trend in recent years has been for the connections of two year old runners (especially the colts) to skip this race and wait until the three year old season next year for their runners.

With addition of so many different races the past few years, certain race size fields have been effected. With introduction of the Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile and Filly & Mare Sprint, they have effected the Breeder's Cup Sprint race. In the past, the Sprint was a highly contested full field event. Recent years, have taken away those high price payouts because of those two new races. The Turf Sprint on the other hand has not really effected the Breeder's Cup Mile or Turf. Turf race sprinting has exploded on the thoroughbred scene in recent years and the usual runners here are sprinters and horses with up to a mile limitations. A full field in the Turf Sprint has no problem filling in any of the years since this race was introduced.

Looking at today's 9 race fields, several horses stick out on paper and a few races are wide open. Juvenile Turf, Turf Sprint, Sprint and Classic have to potential of getting a 3-1 odds on the favorites. In the Classic, Game on Dude should and will be the favorite. But, I wouldn't take less than 5-2 on him and question him at the Classic distance on "real" dirt. That's why I be using him underneath in my plays and will let him beat me, if he's is two and a half odds or less. Groupie Doll in the Filly and Mare sprint is listed at even money on the morning line. This is a legit number for her versus the competition she is facing. The Dirt Mile has several contenders that are all grouped together. Can't see a "longshot" here winning this event. The Juvenile comes up short and really is a three horse race between Shanghai Bobby from the east coast and Bob Baffert's two runners based here. The Turf race this year has a little more quality than in recent years. The Euros have a legitimate state-side contender to be afraid of in Point of Entry. In the Sprint, the same could be said like the Dirt Mile with evenly matched contenders. But, I can see a longshot running in the money and spicing up your exotics. The Mile on the Turf is the most intriguing race on today's card. The showdown between Wise Dan and Execelebration pits the best two milers in training at this time. All others in this event are running for third or lesser.

Mark Hoffman's 2012 Breeder's Cup selections - day #2 (11/3)

Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf



Noble Tune (#9) - this Chad Brown trainee is 2 for 2 with nice stalking victories and then drawing off, in a wide open event; he looks to have the right running style & morning line price!



George Vancouver (#3) - very interesting European invader whose breeding is from championship stock, has yet to win on turf; but trainer wouldn't bring him here if he didn't think there would be a shot.



Exotic & multi-race runners : Balance the Books - Dundonnell - Brown Almighty





Breeder's Cup Filly and Mare Sprint



Groupie Doll (#9) - riding an impressive four race win streak, meets an average field here and should set the perfect trip, BEST BET on today's card.



Switch (#10) - my selection in last year's race; turns back to a sprint and is 5 times in the money in 6 starts over the Santa Anita strip, need a "price" pick over favorite top selection.



Exotic & multi-race runners : Rumor - Musical Romance - Turbulent Descent





Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile



Fed Biz (#5) - lightly raced three year old colt; comes off 3rd place tiring effort in the Indiana Derby, 3 for 3 at the distance & track, a square price here!



Shackleford (#6) - 2nd best in the one turn Kelso Mile last time out, runner up in this race last year & is at his best distance, hard hitter.



Exotic & multi-race runners : Jersey Town - Emcee - Tapizar





Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint



Corporate Jungle (#10) - no factor in graded stakes action going a mile in last three starts, turns back to a sprint going on Santa Anita's famous downhill turf course, interesting runner in this spot.



California Flag (#1) - hard hitting 8 year old gelding has raced in the other four previous running of this race with a victory here in 2009, hasn't been seen since April with a wire to wire victory on this course, draws the rail.



Exotic & multi-race runners : Bridgetown - Great Attack - Great Mills





Breeder's Cup Juvenile



Power Broker (#9) - strong victory 1st time dirt going two turns here in prep race for today's event, has the edge versus these runners with that win.



Title Contender (#1) - just broke maiden here going a mile; wire to wire, this Baffert one/two punch will be hard to deny with the home court advantage.



Exotic & multi-race runners : Shanghai Bobby - Fortify





Breeder's Cup Turf



Point of Entry (#1) - razor sharp McGaughey runner has won five races in a row and has been never better, draws the inside & only danger would be the European shippers.



Trailblazer (#12) - was a fast closing 2nd going a mile last time out over the course, this Japanese bred runner chose this spot over the Breeder's Cup Mile, distance a question.



Exotic & multi-race runners : Shareta - Optimizer - Slim Shadey





Breeder's Cup Sprint



Capital Account (#8) - just missed with late rally in prep race start last time out, has the home course advantage & running style for this race!



The Lumber Guy (#7) - this NY bred got a grade I victory in last start turning back in distance & versus open company, improving colt makes cross country trip and meets tougher company.



Exotic & multi race runners : Amazombie - Coil - Hamazing Destiny





Breeder's Cup Mile



Excelebration (#6) - could be 5 for 5 this year if not running 2nd the world's greatest horse; Frankel in back to back starts this summer, maybe the best mile in training at this time.



Wise Dan (#2) - a head away from being perfect this year, can win on any surface and is 4 for 5 on turf at a mile, possible "Horse of the Year" honors if he wins this race & longshot wins the Classic.



Exotic & multi-race runners : Moonlight Cloud - Jeranimo - Wilcox Inn





Breeder's Cup Classic



Mucho Macho Man (#11) - this little hard hitting colt has comprised a record of 4-1-1 since his Belmont Stakes effort last year, he's been carefully brought along by his trainer and pointed to this since the beginning of the year, my only question with him is the distance.....not his heart!



Ron the Greek (#10) - his effort last time out was too bad to be true at Belmont on a track labeled "good", his biggest career victory was here in March winning the Santa Anita Handicap, looking for a BIG rebound race today.



Exotic & multi-race runners : Game on Dude - Nonios - To Honor and Serve