Saratoga ........ one week away!

With the racing year at the midway point on the calendar, time to look at the divisional leaders in their respective categories. We'll give an emphasis on horses who will point toward the Saratoga meet, a preview of things to come!

In the Sprint division, Private Zone is the clear cut leader off his recent dominating victory in the Belmont Sprint Championship. This versatile runner can win from six furlongs to a mile. The AG Vanderbilt and Forego are the major sprint preps at Saratoga.

The Turf filly division is always wide open and especially now since the talented three year old filly; Lady Eli is sidelined with an injury. Stephanie's Kitten looks to rebound off a dull effort last start at Belmont Park, but Tenpin is the current "hot" lady coming off a big win in the Just A Game Stakes. The Diana Handicap on opening weekend may include these two.

The Turf colts division got a bad hit last week when defending divisional champion; Main Sequence was retired due to an injury in his last start. Big Blue Kitten and Slumber have taken over going route marathon distances and we may see the return of Wise Dan coming back from an extended layoff in the shorter distances. The Sword Dancer and Bernard Baruch Handicap's are the major races in this division toward the end of the meet.

The three year old filly division is most wide open, especially since Kentucky Oaks winner; Lovely Maria was off the board in the Delaware Oaks last weekend. Curalina is ready to take charge off her impressive Acorn Stakes victory and also the return of two year old champion; Take Charge Brandi to the races sometime during the Saratoga meet, most likely early. The Coaching Club American Oaks and Alabama Stakes headline the female sophomore races here.

The colts division of the three year olds are hoping that Triple Crown winner; American Pharoah will make an appearance in the Travers Stakes. While that's highly unlikely, others will take his place in the Curlin, Jim Dandy Stakes or the Mid Summer's Derby - Travers. Frosted, Materiality and the return of Carpe Diem and Upstart will be contenders along with newcomer's Speightster and another Baffert runner; Gimme Da Lute.

The Distaff division seems to be evenly matched with no clear cut leader. Wedding Toast, Stopchargingmaria and Don't Tell Sophia are the top contenders for Shuvee Handicap and Personal Ensign Stakes.

The older handicap division should be led by Belmont Stakes winner and Jockey Club Gold Cup winner from last year; Tonalist. Honor Code winner of the Met Mile, tries two turns again in the Whitney Handicap and Lea, along with the current "hot" runner; Noble Bird as his opponents.Maybe, the Woodward Stakes on closing weekend just MIGHT attract own Triple Crown hero!

The two year old stakes make up a lot of the Spa meet. We have three major races for both sexes throughout the meet. Contenders from Kentucky, California and the mid Atlantic region will be pointing to Saratoga and the future in these sprints.

This along with the many New York bred stake races as well as two graded stakes over the hurdles in the steeplechase ranks make up a forty day stakes schedule at the Spa, second to none! While some of the top ranked horses hail from the west coast, Kentucky and Florida runners will travel to upstate New York and the finest thoroughbred racing in the world. No other racing meet in the world, showcases the best thoroughbreds in training. Saratoga will play big in the year end honors for many of the above horses I have mention.

American Pharoah @ the Spa ......... his best & only shot now!

The worst kept secret in thoroughbred racing was announced late last week, when the connections of Triple Crown winner; American Pharoah said that his next start would be in the Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park on August 2nd. This should come as no surprise to anyone that follows the sport. With the success that trainer Bob Baffert has had in this race and the Zayat owners who reside in New Jersey, it was the more logical step for him to make his first start off his Triple Crown victory. With this announcement, the window of opportunity seeing him at Saratoga Race Course this meet has shrunken quite a bit. There was even a online petition through Capital OTB to sign trying to have him appear here this summer. But, now it looks like the chances of that happening are getting dim. Although his start at Monmouth will be against straight three year old competition, it's highly unlikely he'll wheel back in the Travers at the end of the month, again just facing three year olds. But, there is an alternative that he "could" race at the Spa and face older horses for the first time and that scenario could play out here!

Each year, Saratoga has two races that highlight older horses going the route distance of an mile and an eighth. The first is the grade I - Whitney Handicap, one of the premier races at Saratoga. It's usually a stepping stone for the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park at the end of September. The other race once was that same stepping stone when it was run at Belmont Park in years past. The Woodward Stakes was transplanted on the Saratoga schedule a few years ago and ran on the closing weekend Saturday. With the race switched to Saratoga, it became a less important race for runners pointing to the final classic prep for the Breeder's Cup in New York.

Since being relocated to the Spa in 2006, the only high profile Breeder's Cup Classic runner to win the race was Curlin in 2008. With bigger named runners choosing to wait for later on at the Belmont Fall meet, it opened the door for two outstanding fillies to compete and win this race (Rachel Alexandra 2009 & Harve de Grace 2010). Since then, top level players waited to go a mile and a quarter down the road. This spot would be an excellent way for American Pharoah to face older horses for the first time, against somewhat lighter competition.

By running in New York and staying on the east coast, American Pharoah would be facing slightly tougher well seasoned handicap horses. On the west coast, in either the Pacific Classic at Del Mar or in the Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita, he would be facing the same group of older handicap horses who are a notch below the handicap runners on the east coast. The west coast graded stakes handicap division would fit well in the Woodward Stakes type events, rather than the grade I stake downstate at Belmont. It would be the best of both worlds, American Pharoah would be showcased at the greatest race track in the world and he would face older easier foes for the first time. All this is just conjecture on my part, although it makes perfect sense. It would depend on how he came out of the Haskell and if his connections wanted one last race at a California track. This could be the case, since this year's Breeder's Cup is being run at Keeneland Race Course in Kentucky. But, it's food for thought as everyone tries to map out American Pharoah's final races in his great career. Unfortunately, it's the only logical way he'll have a chance to race at the Spa.

A 4th of July to remember ....... Stars & Stripes festival @ Belmont Park

It's a 4th of July celebration at Belmont Park with six graded stake races today. It's NYRA's second edition of the; Stars and Stripes Festival, one of thier two big events during the summer race meet. With these races, this would be a good way of introducing my new handicapping format for the upcoming Saratoga meet. All the stake races like today and during Saratoga will be my main focus each racing day. It's my traditional format that I've been using the past few years, my top two picks and three runners to use underneath in exotics will be selected every day during the 40 day meet. I will not be handicapping the entire race card this year, instead I'll be choosing an exotic play each day that will consist of either; exacta, triple, superfecta, double, pick three or grand slam play. It will vary each time, but those type of wagers will make up the six day week selections along with the stakes play. So here's a "dry run" of sorts on how my Saratoga 2015 wagering and plays will look this summer in the Recorder.

Race (#6) - the Victory Ride for three year old fillies will introduce my exacta play of the day example. This short field has two stick out runners in my opinion. The formerly undefeated (#1) Promise Me Silver and (#5) Irish Jasper currently on a two race win streak in stake races both at a price. These two I would "box" heavily in a exacta.

Race (#7) - the Dwyer Stakes for three year old males will start a pick 3 play example wager. In leg #1 (this race) - the layoff horse (#4) Texas Red is the "key" play here or single, Leg #2 - I'll be going three deep with selections; (#2) Bolo who has speed, (#3) Divisidero the class and likely favorite, (#7) Postulation a European import for classy trainer Dermot Weld, Leg #3 another "single" with (#6) Tonalist who just missed in the grade I - Met Mile in his last start. So the play will be : Texas Red (#4) with Bolo (#2) / Divisidero (#3) / (#7) Postulation with Tonalist (#6)

Race (#8) - the Belmont Derby going a mile & a quarter on the grass and will be my double wager play. I'll be using the three horses stated above in my pick 3 play; 2/3/7 with 6 in the Suburban Handicap race #9.

Race (#9) - the Suburban Handicap going a mile & a quarter on dirt is my triple play; I will "key" on top Tonalist (#6) and use in the place spots, both Pletcher runners; Coach Inge (#2) and Mylute (#3) and for show, both the remaining runners; 1/4/5 or ALL. This "key" triple play will cost $8.00 for a buck or $4.00 for a 50 cent triple play.

Race (#10) - the Belmont Oaks features the top three year old filly; Lady Eli in a full field of 14 runners. A excellent spot for a dime superfecta play! We'll do a couple different variations since the wager is in dime increments, with "keying" Lady Eli on top and saver wagers "boxing" her with other likely contenders. First play is a "key" superfecta with Lady Eli (#2) in the first leg, Spanish Queen (#6) winner of the American Oaks at Santa Anita in her last start going this distance and Outstanding (#10) European invader for Aidan O'Brien in the place spot, using both those two also in the show spot along with Pine Needles (#1), Consumer Credit (#7) and the above four runners (1/6/7/10) for the bottom superfecta leg, including Sentiero Italia (#11) & Strict Compliance (#14) also. Making the play; 2 with 6//10 with 1/6/7/10 with 1/6/7/10/11/14 which will cost $2.40. The "saver" boxed dime superfecta play will be - 2/6/10/11 and that will be the same price ($2.40) as the above play, but in any order.

Race (#11) - the Belmont Sprint Championship, I'll use my standard play for all stakes races this Saratoga meet. Two picks in a exacta with three horses underneath for exotic plays. Top two selections are; Private Zone (#3) and The Big Beast (#2) with Bay of Plenty (#1) - Stallwalkin' Dude (#6) - C. Zee (#7) as the three runners to include with my top two picks.

The times are changing ........ and NOT for the bettor!

The older I get, the more I remind myself of my dad. I think back of how he was when he was the age I'm now. The thinning hair, his glasses and that little "beer gut" on his thin frame. I also how he remembered the times of his youth, a simpler time in his mind. Even though dad has been gone for seven years, things have changed a lot in this world and around us. That brings me to this week's column, and the changes in the racing world that are closely around us. That would be Saratoga.

It's been nearly thirty five years that I first set foot at Saratoga Race Course, and just about thirty since I really fell in love with our sport. I missed the " good times" the sport endured in the sixties and seventies. But, have been there for Saratoga's extreme popularity since the backyard was expanded in 1983. But, after this Monday's annual press conference for the 2015 meet, I knew that the peak of the race course as we have known it, is heading the other way.

It's been about fifteen tenuous years of turmoil at NYRA. Now, the greatest race track in the world has taken it's toll because of it. State involvement and the direction of racing at it's crown jewel has been changed forever. I'm not the only one who agrees with my statement on how racing at Saratoga will be viewed and how it's viewed by the "powers to be" who runs the show now.

A celebrated press conference announcing it's premier meet has become little more than a money making footnote in the history of thoroughbred racing at the historic Spa. People who know little about the 150 plus year history of the Union Avenue facility, have in just two years taken what was so great about the "Summer place to be" and turned it into something that real race track goers and historians didn't want to see. A place where families could go, with little cost and enjoy racing like it was for decades.

The announcement ending the open house the Sunday before the meet started for financial reasons is just the tip of the iceberg. A tradition for longer than I been writing this column is now gone. A day where families could come to the track for free and enjoy the aspects of a family event, where non-profit organizations could make money for there respective groups and children could see the thoroughbreds through steeplechase races and the Newman Weight Trials for unraced horses. This has fallen victim to the "new" direction that management has gone. The tradition of securing those picnic tables in the Saratoga backyard area has been altered too. There is a price tag for some of those tables now, thinking it will draw more people to the track daily. Even though the main reasoning for the option is to increase revenue. The changes to the carousel area on the main level, to a "sports bar" with an admission fee is not for the betterment of attracting fans to sport, but just another reason for people to spent money other than the main reason coming, betting on the ponies.

Yes, the 2015 Saratoga race meet is not your father's typical race meet. It's true that times change, but the single most reason of the 40 days at Saratoga, are for the thoroughbred racing. Unfortunately, the powers to be running NYRA have forgotten that. It's all about how much money, Saratoga can produce for the state and that is the bottom line with these new "improvements". I'll take lot of heat for my stance, but many agree with me that the flavor and history of Saratoga Race Course is slowing being taken away. I have said many times before, I long for the 24 day meet, the nine race cards at the "August place to be". Now, I just long for the historical races that are still run and famous horses who won them. With attendance and handle down all across the country this year, these "new" things are hardly going to bring back racing to it's heyday. We would be lucky to get, Triple Crown Champion; American Pharoah to the Spa for one race. But like the thirty seven year wait for crowning that champion; the "new" Saratoga racing experience seems to be a let down from the past. We shall see how it will be received.

The OTHER super 3 year old ....... opposite sex & different surface

With the exciting end of this year's Triple Crown, American Pharoah proved to be the best three year old colt since Affirmed. But lost in the shuffle is the other half of the three year old division, the fillies. While the three year old fillies on dirt have no one outstanding runner. On the "proper surface"; the weeds, there is one very special girl. Ever since her maiden breaker last summer at Saratoga; Lady Eli - who is trained by Chad Brown has been the talk of the distaff class.

That maiden special weight victory by a nosed signaled big things for this daughter of Divine Park, out of a Saint Ballado mare. A month later at Belmont Park, she followed that up with a authoritative victory in the grade III - Miss Grillo Stakes at 7-2. That is one price she will never be again! In the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Filly Turf, she cemented herself as the best two year old filly in 2014 and many thought she should have been the eclipse award winning juvenile filly of last year. Needless to say, the award didn't go to a turf runner. But as this year approached, Lady Eli made one thing clear, she is the best three year old filly ..... hands down!

She returned this year with two odds-on victories on the weeds at Keeneland and most recently traveling over a mile at Belmont Park in the restricted Wonder Again Stakes. After over coming a tough trip, she got up in time to remain undefeated, a perfect 5 for 5 in her career. Even though the waters will get deeper as the summer continues, Lady Eli has demonstrated she is the top of her class in the three year old female division. Her next scheduled start is on the Belmont Park - Stars and Stripes card on July 4th. There she'll race in the one million dollar, grade I - Belmont Oaks at a mile and a quarter. After that race, Lady Eli will surely point toward the Saratoga stakes on the grass for the three year old fillies. Most likely, the August 14th - Maker's Mark Lake Placid Stakes at a mile & eighth distance on the weeds. One thing is for sure, because she is trained by Chad Brown and a New York based runner, her chances of appearing at the Spa are much better than American Pharoah; Lady Eli will be there! We will see the female version of our Triple Crown champion and on the preferred surface.

This weekend continues the three year old Derbies across the country. It's a non-graded stake at Thistledown, the Ohio Derby (8th) going a mile and a sixteenth. Six of the nine runners entered are coming out of grade I competition, either the Kentucky Derby or Preakness Stakes. But the most intriguing horse of the group goes from the rail for the Triple Crown winning trainer. Bob Baffert. He has, Whiskey Ticket (#1) who in his second career start won the grade III - Illinois Derby at Hawthorne Park. Talk about a loaded stable, not only has he have the Triple Crown champion, but he has this very lightly raced son of Ghostzapper who has a tremendous upside in these type of events. He is my top choice here over the other longshot grade I runners entered here. For second, War Story (#5) fits well here after knocking heads at 45-1 and no factor in the Kentucky Derby. Another Derby longshot, the N.Y. bred - Tencendur (#6) is my show pick. Again no factor in the Derby, he may make a better account of himself versus these evenly matched group of lesser horses. For superfecta plays, add the #2 Far Right and #4 Divining Rod. The play is : 1 with 5/6 with 2/4/5/6 with 2/4/5/6.

My take on history being made with a Triple Crown winner, different and unfortunately real .......

I remember a mire twenty one years ago, a quote from a life long New York Rangers fan who exclaimed after they won the 1994 Stanley Cup; "Now, I can die in peace!!!". It was a forty four year wait for that hockey fan to see his beloved team with a championship. For a Boston Red Sox fan, it was even longer until they won the World Series in 2004. Yet still, if you are a Chicago Cubs fan, you are STILL waiting for now, over a hundred years, that championship! As a follower of thoroughbred racing, it took 37 years until the crowning achievement of racing was realized; a Triple Crown championship with American Pharoah. After many, many disappointments, American Pharoah did something that many racing fans under the age of thirty have never seen. Finally the twelved champion in the history of racing to accomplish this feat. Yet, why do I feel no different than before last Saturday evening?

It's been in my blood ever since writing about this sport in 1998, to see a thoroughbred do this "hat trick" in five weeks every year. I really thought that first year writing for the Recorder, I would see Real Quiet become that champion. But, a photo finish and nose defeat ended that quest. There would be other tries continuing throughout the next 17 years and just seven years ago in 2008, when the quote; "unbeatable" Big Brown was eased, my temperament began to fade even more. When attending my first Triple Crown try just three years ago when I'll Have Another scratched the day before the race, my doubts even came more into focus. Then there was last year, when California Chrome continued that impossible streak of coming up empty. Something told me that it wasn't in the cards. So, this year was it more of the same or finally was there a race horse that could live up to the hype?

Yes, if there was one, it was the two year old champion of last year; American Pharoah. After all, he was the most talented three year old in quite some time from what he accomplished in only a few weeks this spring. Finally, the public got what they wanted. A horse that would live up to the hype and get the job done.

I watched the race with some of my favorite horse racing friends that I grew up with. These guys are the "hardcore" players who follow the sport nearly year round. They "send it in" on every race imaginable, even on big days such as last Saturday. They were even thrilled in seeing something that had been accomplished for the first time since they were in grade school. Then there was me, the guy who writes about the sport most every week. Happy for the sport that there was a Triple Crown winner, but not as excited as I thought I'd be. Could it be from the years of disappointments that the feat wasn't accomplished? Was it because I know this very talented three year old will only be racing until the end of the year? That's not even a given, in today's thoroughbred world. The last two Triple Crown winners way back when; Seattle Slew and Affirmed BOTH raced as four year olds the following year. Could it be today's sport of thoroughbred racing, which some say is a "dying" sport, that this achievement may be just a "blip" on the radar? After all, great thoroughbreds are liking shooting stars, they are bright at first, full of potential and just as quick are gone because of various reasons. I really don't know.

They say this is "good for the sport", I could never get that reasoning. Will this attract new people to the sport and keep them interested long term? Or do I just feel jaded from following thoroughbred racing for thirty years and seeing it's many ups and many downs. We saw history last Saturday evening, something that hadn't happen in a very long time. American Pharoah is the BEST three year old in nearly forty years, I won't take that away from him! So what happens now, will he race at least two more times? No four year old campaign for him! That automatically does not put him in the same category as either Seattle Slew or Affirmed. Will he come to Saratoga? The chances of that are even bigger than his Triple Crown sweep. I guess everyone will have the pleasure that American Pharoah won the Triple Crown and ended the drought. Is he a "great" horse? He's a great three year old and a great horse in the public's eye. All time great? If he can beat older horses in his last two starts, I guess. For the layman, American Pharoah is the hero and a history maker. For the sport, he ended the very long space of a three year old not accomplishing this feat. That's good. But, like a great thoroughbred handicapper once told me after losing a race, there are nine more. Thoroughbred racing is in the spotlight now, it's up to the fans who witness this feat that need to keep it there. Do it for American Pharoah.

Mark Hoffman's 2015 graded Belmont Stakes selections

American Pharoah (#5) Espinoza / Baffert (3-5)

It's been 37 years since we last saw a Triple Crown winner; I was 14 years old, there have been 10 thoroughbreds since I first followed the sport that have failed; that's been 28 years and since starting this column in 1998; I've been disappointed 7 times! It ALL ends today with the most talked about three year old trying to complete this feat since Spectacular Bid in 1979, There are two things in my opinion that will stop him today; if he can't get the mile and a half distance and the Belmont track itself with it's sandy surface.

Mubtaahij (#1) Ortiz Jr. / de Kock (10-1)

The European threat came up a clunker in the Kentucky Derby finishing a no factor 8th at 14-1, a runner who some considered a "wise guy" play the First Saturday gets a freshening from that effort and plenty of works over the Belmont strip since then, I have no doubt that the distance is right up his alley and is the "price" threat here to derail a Triple Crown bid.

Frosted (#6) Rosario / McLaughlin (5-1)

Grinded his way to a 4th place finish in the Derby making up ground late where others didn't, skipped the Preakness and pointed to this race, his trainer has won this race in the past and would be no surprise if gets the perfect trip behind the odds-on favorite, a must use.

Madefromlucky (#3) Castellano / Pletcher (12-1)

Winner of the Peter Pan Stakes here at Belmont Park which is a prep race for this marathon, has run behind our big time favorite in two races at Oaklawn Park this spring, the ONLY non Triple Crown foe of this group, race over the track may mean something here!

Materiality (#8) Velazquez / Pletcher (6-1)

The runner I didn't like in the Kentucky Derby had the universal bad trip in that race by stumbling at the start and finishing well although beaten nearly eight lengths, he's the "wise guy" horse today as he skipped the Preakness for this spot, once again I prefer to leave him off my tickets since he'll most likely be an underlay.

Keen Ice (#7) Desormeaux / Romans (20-1)

no factor in the Derby, really no factor today in the "win" spot, he could suck-up for 3rd or 4th at best.

Tale of Verve (#2) Rosario / Stewart (15-1)

got up for 2nd on a sloppy Pimlico surface in the Preakness Stakes, he gave us a more valued exacta than in the Derby, let's see him do the same on a dry surface!

Frammento (#4) Smith / Zito (30-1)

It's New York ....... it's Nick Zito ....... it's NOT your typical runner from these connections, I'll pass big time with this plodder!