NYRA Holidayfest selections ....... the ATP finale for 2011

With this being the last "big" graded stakes weekend in New York and the last "At the Post" column for 2011, we are going to do a old fashioned handicapping selections for the four stake races on the Aqueduct card. We have two evenly matched stake races for the two year old colts and fillies, plus a three year old stake for fillies and the last grade I on the NYRA circuit for 2011. The four stake races comprise the popular "Grand Slam" wager at NYRA, where you choose a horse to finish "in-the-money" the first three legs of the wager (6th, 7th, 8th) and in the final leg (9th) your selection must win to complete the bet. I give out my top two selections in each race, horses to use in exotic & multi-race wagers and a Grand Slam play.



The first of the four stake races is for the two year old fillies; the Demoiselle at the route distance of a mile and a eighth. A field of 10 are entered with a entry and the group assembled has no standout runner. All of these runners are trying this distance for the first time in their career and breeding may play a big part in the outcome of this race. With that said, I'm selecting on top a runner who is bred to get the added distance of ground. Captivating Lass (#2) draws the rail and this is her second career start after breaking her maiden in debut at PARX going two turns. Her sire was AP Indy and dam was Folk, both were winners going two turns and this distance. Plus the Darley Stable connections mean business with future stakes runners. For 2nd, I'm going with another offspring of AP Indy racing from the far outside post; Indyniable (#9). She recently broke her maiden in a second career start at Keeneland going seven furlongs on the polytrack track surface. She tries dirt for the first time and stretches out. Disposablepleasure (#8) and Lady Cohiba (#1) are your exotic & multi-race runners.



The boys are up next in the Remsen Stakes; same distance, same number of runners and just as wide open. Again I'm going with a AP Indy runner who is a half brother to Preakness Stakes winner; Shackleford. Stephanoatsee (#6) after stumbling at the start, broke his maiden in his 2nd career start in a one mile off-the-turf event. His trainer knows how to get them to the winners circle with winning this year's Kentucky Derby with Animal Kingdom. In the runner-up spot, I'm selecting a horse who has already won at this distance. Speightscity (#9) was no factor in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile at 42-1, but broke his maiden at Saratoga in a rare mile and a eighth race. Managed Account (#7) and Our Entourage (#4) are the runners to use underneath.



The final grade I stake in New York is the Cigar Mile and this year we have a short elite field of seven entered with an entry that was scratched from Thanksgiving day's Fall Highweight race (Calibrachoa & Caixa Eletronica ). I'm going with the horse I picked just a few week's ago in the Breeder's Cup Classic; To Honor and Serve (#5). He tired at 10-1 with a good effort forwardly placed and has two victories over the Aqueduct main track. Haynesfield (#3) is the "horse to beat" and my 2nd choice. Second best in this race last year, he won the state bred Empire Classic in his last start.



The last of the four stake races is Gazelle Stakes for three year old fillies at the same distance as the Demoiselle and Remsen Stakes (mile & a eighth). Awesome Feather (#7) is my top selection coming off a return to the races victory at Belmont in a overnight stake. It was her first start of the year and first for new trainer Chad Brown. Draw It (#5) is my second pick and has finished as the runner-up four straight times, the logical place horse! Horses for exotic and multi-race runners are; R Gypsy Gold (#2) and Love and Pride (#8).



The Grand Slam ($1.00 plays) for the four stake races are the following; 2/9 - 4/6/7/9 - 5 -7 : ($8.00) 1/8 - 4/9 - 3/5 - 7 : ($8.00) 2 - 9 - 3/5 - 2/8 : ($4.00) total : ($20)

My thoughts of 2011 ........ and what could be improved for the future of racing!

With this being the second to last column for "At the Post" in 2011, I just want to give my "two cents" about the racing year to this point and direction it may be heading into 2011. I've been following the sport as you all well know, for 25 years. I missed the "heyday" of the mid 70's and started getting involved in a era of change. One of the major "changes" was the focus from "on track" attendance to the simulcast era. As I told you before, I can remember when there was just a "blue & white" screen at home from OTB and delayed race calls. Now, there are upwards of 30 tracks a day to choose from starting at noontime until the wee hours of the morning from Australia . At the branches, it's changed too. Many have closed or become "self-service" and the focus is on more online accounts through the computer. I got no problem with this wave. Everything you need is online, information is available from many places and it's much more easier with a click of a box to put in your wager and have the amount in your account. This direction is just fine with me.

The "on track" racing in general, must focus on less for the future. We have way too many racing dates, which makes small betting pools with the horse population down. The main focus should be in New York , March until the end of November. The racing dates after Thanksgiving weekend, should decrease. Personally, I think racing at NYRA during the winter months should only race three days a week (Friday, Saturday & Sunday) with ten race cards. In this day in age, the are plenty of opportunities for the low level, claiming trainers at places like PARX and other east coast tracks to race their runners. I don't usually play "day to day" from here until spring arrives. I know with the VLT's in place at Aqueduct, this will never happen. But, playing the same horses at the same level two or three times in a few weeks, it's my type of wagering excitement.

My biggest pet peeve this year is the way trainers bring their horses along the Triple Crown trail. It's gotten to the point that the Kentucky Derby is no different than an entry level non-winners of one race. In the past, solid two year old form meant something leading into next year. These days, it means nothing. A perfect example was this year's Triple Crown races and the horses that won them. Three different runners and the ONLY one three year old horse this year to win two grade I races; Caleb's Posse (King's Bishop & BC mile). No other horse could string two winning races in stakes all year long. Stay Twisty came the closet to that, but some say he's "just" a New York loving horse. At one time, the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown races meant something. Today, that is another story.

Another thing that bothers me is the negative light on the sport from it's "high profile" players and not the horses. Whether it's Rick Dutrow or the stewards at Churchill Downs , these important individuals have to give a good light to our sport. If someone didn't known anything about thoroughbred racing and saw what goes on with said individuals, those people may steer clear of it. I know horse racing is not immune to controversy. But, people may think twice about investing their hard earned money into something they may think is shady.

But, all is not bad. We have the best race meet in the world for 40 days each year here in our own backyard; Saratoga. We get new people involved in the sport through partnership and owning horses. We have the BEST organization in wagering with Capital OTB. And most of all, we get to see the most exciting animals performance on track in giving us thrills each time they are in the spotlight. Other than those few things, I STILL love this sport!

Another exciting Breeder's Cup weekend!

This year’s Breeder’s Cup World Championships lived up to all the expectations and drama. The two day event had its share of stories, many quite surprising. What was “billed” as a showcase for the ladies and “over hyped” three year old colt, fell somewhat short of expectations. Even my prediction of a “euro” sweep in the turf races was a little bit off. But, one thing is for sure…..if you had the “right” horse on either day, you were quite well rewarded.

The six races on Friday, started out very good in the recently added “new” race; the Juvenile Sprint with an “odds-on” favorite winning from well known connections. One of three “cold” exactas chosen by me came out with Secret Circle at 2-5, dusting a field of young runners sprinting. I tabbed the European filly for second; Shumoos at 15-1. It was a modest $28 exacta and got the day off to a good start. After the next two races with longshots that I didn’t figure, we saw great performance from the two year old filly star; My Miss Aurelia. She remained undefeated with a score over another classy two year old filly; Grace Hall. It look’s like again next year that the “girls” will be the highlight makers with this performance. We ended Friday with an impossible longshot winning and a champion three year old filly that could make a slight case for Horse of the Year honors. In the Filly and Mare Turf, once again this year we had a longshot in Perfect Shirl victorious. Winless in 2011, she was one of two Woodbine shippers to do well during the weekend. In the “Ladies” Classic, it was another “cold” exacta picked by myself when Royal Delta bested fellow three year old; It’s Tricky ($32). With that victory, Royal Delta wrapped up top three year & older filly and mare championship honors.

The card on Saturday was a lesson of the “hard to come up with” horses with a parade of longshot winners. It started with the Marathon , were another “winless” horse for 2011 won the race. Rank outsider; Afleet Again paid $85 to win and was the first of many high price runners to score on the second championship day. My top pick in the Juvenile Turf (Wrote $25.20) got the Europeans finally in the win column. If you told me that the winner of the Turf Sprint would have been the ONLY winning favorite on the card Saturday, I wouldn’t have believed you. But, Regally Ready got the job done at just over 2-1.

My big score of the day was in the Dirt Mile, where the two three year olds that I picked ran one/ two for a $112.80 exacta. Caleb’s Posse, the only two-time grade I three year old winner this year, defeated Preakness longshot; Shackleford going away in the stretch. His effort was the most impressive of any on the 15 race Breeder’s Cup card either day. It was quite the “feel good” story with St. Nicholas Abbey won the Turf with trainer Aidan O’Brien’s eighteen year old son; Joseph aboard. Upset in the Juvenile was in order when the nearly “white” colt; Hansen ran away from the field and held off the very wide late charge of the even money favorite; Union Rags.

But, the “out of left field” or no chance in my book winner of the day was in the Turf Mile. With Goldikova and Gio Ponti the headliners, it was 64-1 longshot; Court Vision scoring with the second biggest upset in Breeder’s Cup history. I wrote about this horse in my first column of 2009 and said that he would be a “future” champion on grass. He never panned out that year or last year and saved the “future” prediction for today, long after I gave up on him and scored at this monster price. The parade of longshots lead up to the main event; the Breeder’s Cup Classic. Here it was to be a showdown of Havre de Grace and Uncle Mo. Instead it was between former jockeys in a relationship. Drosselmeyer who won the 2010 Belmont Stakes ran down Game On Dude at the wire and gave Mike Smith the victory over his former girlfriend; Chantal Sutherland. Once again, I had the wrong Bill Mott horse, as I liked To Honor and Serve in the race. It was a fitting end to a very pricey racing day where the "illogical "longshots won the championship races.

Mark Hoffman's 2011 Breeder's Cup selections - day #2 "Championship day" (11/5)

Breeder's Cup Marathon

Cease (#9) - lightly raced gelding broken his maiden at Saratoga by daylight in the mud, followed that up with a sloppy track win there and just missed in a grade II test at Hawthorne Park, taking a shot with him since he can lay close to the pace.

Harrison's Cove (#7) - European invader from the O'Brien barn tries natural dirt for the first time, shows he can get the distance after winning his last start going a marathon distance in a field of 18.

Exotic and multi-race runners : Brigantin - Eldaafer - A.U. Miner


Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf

Wrote (#5) - European invader finished 3rd last time out in grade II event with a bit of trouble, morning line price is right & breeding with connections has got it!

State of Play (#14) - perfect 2 for 2 in career at Saratoga , hasn't raced in two months and far outside post is a bit of concern.

Exotic and multi-race runners : Lucky Chappy - Finale - Animal Spirits


Breeder's Cup Sprint

Euroears (#1) - throw out Vosburgh effort after poor start and no factor in the race, had a monster work at Santa Anita last Sunday (57.4) best of 67 at 5 furlongs, alert start this time he'll be tough to beat!

Jackson Bend (#5) - shows up here after deciding to skip the Dirt Mile, chased Uncle Mo last time out in the Kelso going a mile at Belmont, I'm not sure turning back to six panels is his best distance.....but is in razor sharp form.

Exotic and multi-race runners : Big Drama - Amazombie - Aikenite


Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint

Caracortado (#13) - this west coast runner turns back to this five furlong sprint distance today after closing in route turf races, with a quick dash in this race......his closing kick from the outside may run them down late.

Broken Dreams (#3) - this 5 yr.old mare comes into this race off a victory going slightly longer on the Santa Anita downhill turf course, she has closing kick too & is a "live" longshot in this wide open event.

Exotic and multi-race runners : Regally Ready - Havelock - Hoofit


Breeder's Dirt Mile

Caleb's Posse (#8) - even 3rd last time out in the Indiana Derby stretching back out after two sprint victories, faces older horses for the first time, timid selection here.

Shackleford (#2) - finished in front of top pick in same race, also faces older for the first time and should set the perfect trip behind the speed, dangerous here.

Exotic and multi-race runners : Trappe Shot - Jersey Town - Tapizar


Breeder's Cup Turf

Sea Moon (#7) - this lightly raced 3 yr.old recently finished 3rd in a group I event with a troubled trip, relishes a distance of ground & should be tough with clean trip.

Await the Dawn (#6) - distant 3rd behind some of Europe 's best turf runners (Twice Over & Midday), won previous four starts before that effort.

Exotic and multi-race runners : Sarafina - Midday - St. Nicholas Abbey


Breeder's Cup Juvenile

Union Rags (#10) - monster effort winning the Champagne Stakes going one turn at Belmont Park, this undefeated son of Dixie Union has been spectacular in his last two starts and is my BEST BET on today's Breeder's Cup card.

Daddy Long Legs (#11) - this European runner has dirt breeding on both sides and opts this spot over the Juvenile Turf one, price in this spot much like the other European runners in the Juvenile races.

Exotic and multi-race runners : Alpha - Crusade - Speightscity


Breeder's Cup Mile

Goldikova (#1) - the darling of the Breeder's Cup mares, is three for three stateside with three Breeder's Cup Mile victories, this will be her final career start and should go out a winner!

Courageous Cat (#3) - just missed last time out in the Woodbine Mile caught at the wire, lightly raced this year, he's been pointed to this race and should be a square price.

Exotic and multi-race runners : Gio Ponti - Byword - Strong Suit


Breeder's Cup Classic

To Honor and Serve (#13) - well thought of as a two year old and early into his 3 yr.old season, he got hurt and missed the Triple Crown races, he returned to the races at Saratoga and needed his first start back and then won for fun next out, recently won the Pennsylvania Derby and draws the far outside post today, may get overlooked here & certain to be a price!

Havre de Grace (#10) - the darling "filly" of the Breeder's Cup tries to emulate what Zenyatta did two years ago and become the third straight filly & mare possibly to win Horse of the Year with a victory in the Classic today, she should be right there......but, I question whether she can get the mile and a quarter distance. I will be rooting for her though!


Exotic and multi-race runners : Uncle Mo - Stay Thirsty - Flat Out

The 27th Breeder's Cup World Championships ...... one man's opinion!

Today is the World Series and Super Bowl of thoroughbred racing; the Breeder's Cup. Nine championship races today with 105 horses running on both dirt and grass going seven different distances. A lot to comprehend, a lot of days going over the pre-entries. With many horses cross entered, it just makes things even tougher. It's work going over each of the fields, but well rewarded even if you hit one race with payoffs. This is what we wait for all season and here it is.

The "ladies" had their day yesterday, unfortunately the filly and mares are regulated to the first day of the championships. This was mostly likely for when Zenyatta was racing and we had the Rachel Alexandra craze. Time to put the "Ladies Classic" back on the Saturday card and return the name of the race to the "distaff". We also have to get ALL the races shown "live" The first race of today; the Breeder's Cup Marathon, will not be shown on either ESPN or ABC. Instead, it will be shown on TVG which is only available by satellite. Hopefully, locally that Capital OTB television will show the race "live" since the major networks won't.

It's my opinion that the Europeans will make a BIG impact on this year's Breeder's Cup. They have a good chance in five of the nine races today. With trainer Aidan O'Brien having more starters in this year's Cup than Todd Pletcher, this should tell you something. The "Euros" are not afraid to run in the marathon, all the Juvenile races and are "head and shoulders" the best in the grass races. Even in the dirt races, many of their runners have "dirt" breeding. It wouldn't surprise me if the horses "across the pond" win possibly a half a dozen of the championship races.

We will see some new exciting faces for sure this weekend. Young runners like; Secret Circle, Elusive Kate, Grace Hall and My Miss Aurelia (from yesterday) and State of Play , Union Rags and Creative Cause today. Renaissance runners like; Jackson Bend, Get Stormy and the NY bred; Compliance Officer lead the way of horses who have gotten better this year. But, it's the different story lines with horses and people who capture the imagination every year at Breeder's Cup time.

Can Big Drama defend his Breeder's Cup Sprint title after being lightly raced this year and missing his last prep race before today? Just how big will be the payouts in the Turf Sprint race, since there is no clear cut favorite. My guess is a exacta half a grand with a double digit payout for the winner. Just who will get the lead in the Dirt Mile which is another evenly matched race for the middle distance horses. It would not surprise me if the Europeans cover the first four spots in the Breeder's Cup Turf. The lack of North American turf runners the past few years has moved this race from the second to last, to mid-card. But, the highlight today will come down between the two female runners in the two last races.

Goldikova and Havre de Grace are looking to make history today. In the Breeder's Cup Mile, Goldikova seeks her fourth straight victory in this race. No other horse has won this many Breeder's Cup races. She still is the "horse to beat" in that race and it will be her final career start. The Breeder's Cup Classic once again will have a "ladies" flavor for a third year in a row. It's Havre de Grace, won has already beaten the boys this year. She tries to beat them again and lock up Horse of the Year honors. We have many things and angles to choose from this year and most certainly we'll get exciting results.

Mark Hoffman's 2011 Breeder's Cup selections - day #1 "Ladies day" (11/4)

Breeder's Cup Juvenile Sprint

Secret Circle (#6) - this son of Eddington is two for two winning both starts by a combined 12 and a half lengths, the Bob Baffert trainee towers over the field and is my BEST BET on Friday's BC schedule.

Shumoos (#5) - a European import, this "dirt" bred runner tries the surface for the first time, trainer does well with these types and will be a price underneath the logical favorite in this race.

Exotic and multi-race runners : Seeker - Vexor - Trinninberg



Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

Elusive Kate (#10) - this European runner seeks fifth straight win today, has won on "firm" ground in France and is the "horse to beat" here in this spot.

Dayatthespa (#2) - lightly raced NY bred trained by Chad Brown recently set the pace in Woodbine turf stake at this distance while yielding late, has tremendous upside at 12-1 morning line odds.

Exotic and multi-race runners :
Dear Lavinia - Somali Lemonade - Stopshoppingmaria


Breeder's Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

Switch (#6) - California based runner just missed in Keeneland sprint last time out, was 2nd in this same race last year, lukewarm choice in this evenly matched field.

Pomeroy's Pistol (#12) - ran career best last time out at Belmont Park, only concern here is her poor performance over the track this spring in the Eight Belles Stakes, only one of two out-of-the-money efforts.

Exotic and multi-race runners : Turbulent Descent - Her Smile - Tanda


Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies

Grace Hall (#5) - this undefeated daughter of Empire Maker won the grade I - Spinaway at Saratoga and most recently a two-turn stake at Delaware Park, definitely the "horse to beat" here in this spot.

Questioning (#1) - another European import with dirt breeding; Hard Spun out of a Seeking the Gold mare, once again looking for a price underneath one of the logical top three picks.

Exotic and multi-race runners :
My Miss Aurelia - Say A Novena - Weemissfrankie


Breeder's Cup Filly & Mare Turf

Announce (#6) - Juddmonte English bred is eight for ten lifetime and just missed last time out in France going a similar route distance, connections make the choice here.

Nahrain (#5) - undefeated three year old filly beat top selection last time out, European shippers have the edge over the stateside grass runners here.


Exotic and multi-race runners : Stacelita - Aruna - Misty for Me


Breeder's Cup Ladies Classic

Royal Delta (#6) - chased Havre de Grace last time out first time versus older runners, her best effort today puts her in the winners circle.

It's Tricky (#3) - runner up in last two races as the post time favorite, faces older for the first time today, when she fires her best shot...... is tough to beat.

Exotic and multi-race runners : Plum Pretty - Miss Match - Ultra Blend