The Florida preps wrapped up with the usual group of same suspects and the result mirror the most recent running of the Florida Derby a year ago. The Todd Pletcher armada had a lightly raced three year old in 2014 that did not make his debut until his three year old season. That horse was Constitution, and was the new face upsetting the apple cart one year ago. Unfortunately, he got hurt before the Kentucky Derby and did not race, although has returned as a four year old. This year he has Materiality, who just like Constitution had not raced as a juvenile. And just like last year's Florida Derby, Pletcher had another winner and top Derby contender. This son of Afleet Alex was making his third career start and is now a perfect three for three. With his victory, the Todd Pletcher group of derby contender now stands at five, down one from six when Far From Over, one of the favorites for today's Wood Memorial came up with an injury and is now off the derby trail.
The first of the prep races we'll look at today is the Wood Memorial (10th) at Aqueduct. The mile and an eighth final derby prep in New York has assembled seven evenly matched runners with one proven commodity this winter in New York. El Kabeir (#5) makes his fourth start this year with two victories and a second place finish. The reliable son of Scat Daddy is making his ninth lifetime start overall and does have a win over the Churchill strip last Fall as a two year old. His main danger is the Pletcher runner; Daredevil (#6) shipping up from Gulfstream Park. Two for two on off tracks in his career, he makes his second start of the season after running second in his seasonal debut sprinting in the seven furlong Swale Stakes in Florida. My top selection though, will be a horse who ran good here as a two year old last Fall going this same distance. The Kiaran McLaughlin trained; Frosted (#4) was a sharp second in the Remsen Stakes from the far outside 13 post in that race and also broke his maiden over the strip going a flat mile. Wood Memorial selections : 4-5-6-1.
Eight are entered in the Toyota Bluegrass Stakes (10th) at Keeneland going the same distance also. Today marks the race return to natural dirt for the first time since the polytrack was removed last summer. There is a prohibited favorite here though in Carpe Diem (#5) who won here last Fall in the Breeder's Futurity and has only been beaten once in his career. That was with a wide trip in last year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile behind Texas Red. He's my top Kentucky Derby horse and my top pick here. For second, Classy Class (#7) ships in from Aqueduct after two third place finishes in stake races there, fits well here. I'll round out my triples and superfectas with both Frammento (#6) and Unrivaled (#4) as longshots.
The final major prep we shift to the west coast and Santa Anita Park for their derby (8th) , once again going the same distance on dirt. Here only six are going, with one huge standout in many ways than one. Dortmund (#1) is undefeated in five career starts and shows a special gameness in his victories fighting back when headed by other horses. This son of Big Brown is a rather large imposing horse and could be the favorite at Churchill in a few weeks with a victory today. The two runners who will try to derail him are closer Prospect Park (#5) and Bolo (#4) who will most likely stalk him. I see it a very 1-5-4 chalky finish.
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