The new trend ........ favorites winning the Run for Roses

Everybody likes the "underdog", the team who always wins is less popular. In thoroughbred racing, everyone wants the "longshot", nobody makes money with the favorite. It was twenty one straight years from 1979 until 2000 that the post time favorite did not win the Kentucky Derby. In the last 15 years since then, we've had seven and three straight in a row. The trend of "favorites don't win the derby" has changed. While a few have been lukewarm favorites (Smarty Jones, Street Sense, Orb) others like Fusiachi Pegasus, Big Brown and most recent winners; California Chrome and American Pharoah have paid under $10.00.

When American Pharoah crossed the line first last Saturday evening, the trend of winning favorites was extended in the race. Not only in the Kentucky Derby have we seen the parade of "chalk" reach the winners circle, but it has been this way the entire Triple Crown trail in the prep races leading up to this race. As stated in a previous column, the 25 major prep races since January of this year produced a $6.40 paying mutual. As the favorite once again, American Pharoah paid $7.80 just under 3-1 odds. Many predicted he would be the post time favorite and even drifted up a bit from his lower odds when wagering started on Friday afternoon. It came down between him and entry mate; Dortmund who was the second solid choice at a little over 4-1. These two along with Firing Line who was fourth in wagering and you had three of the four runners under double digits. This meant low exotic payouts, something we aren't used to in the Kentucky Derby.

The exacta ($72.60) was the smallest since 2004, 11 years ago when another favorite; Smarty Jones won and Lion Heart who chased him around the track was second. Even more low were the two other payouts that usually command big prices in this race. The trifecta of 18-10-8 was the lowest paying triple in twenty years ($202.00). A wager that has huge payouts was averaging over $2,400 in the last seven straight Kentucky Derbies. Even the superfecta which has average $90,000 on the one dollar wager since it's inception to the race in 1996, was less than 1,000 ($634) second lowest ever. A let down to most people wagering on this racing, which you are usually well rewarded for. In a full field of thoroughbreds with usually has the most of any race during the year, big prices are the norm. This year, that was the biggest disappointment.

Even though the 2015 Kentucky Derby wasn't the money maker everyone loves, it did prove that this group of three year olds is a good one. Both Baffert runners did not disappoint and runner-up Firing Line (who took late money) produced a very chalky outcome. Unfortunately also, the race was settle at the top of the stretch with these three horses. Frosted closed late and only other horse worth mentioning was Materiality, who had a bad break at the start and finished well spite his trip. This unfortunately doesn't spell well for the second leg of the Triple Crown; the Preakness Stakes. Only the top three in the money finishers and possibly Danzig Moon (5th) Carpe Diem (10th) and Mr. Z (13th) are the only returnees for Baltimore. New shooters Divining Rod (1st ~ Lexington Stakes) and Bodhisattva (1st ~ Federico Teso Stakes) are the only definites. Todd Pletcher who usually doesn't have many Preakness runners, may also race; Stanford or Competitive Edge both who have shown speed in their last starts.

The next leg of the Triple Crown always is noted for smaller payouts, that's the norm. But now we can add the Kentucky Derby as a race where predictability is a common thing, at least this year. The good thing about predictability though, the horses doing that are the good ones. And that is good for the sport.

Baffert's Dynamic Duo & Miguel Mena ........ Kentucky Derby 2015

Today mark's the 17th year of my column with the Recorder, AT THE POST. I started this column on the day of the 124th running of the Kentucky Derby, May 2nd 1998. It was the first writing of any sort since my high school days, 17 years earlier. That year, trainer Bob Baffert was coming off a victory in this race one year earlier with Silver Charm and a nose defeat in 1996 with Cavonnier. A field of 15 were entered and once again, Bob Baffert had the lukewarm favorite in Indian Charlie at 5-2. He was coming off a victory in the Santa Anita Derby that year and was a strong contender to give Baffert his second consecutive Derby winner. Two year old champion; Favorite Trick was the second choice with a Lukas and Zito horses rounding out the top four wagering favorites. But, it was the other Bob Baffert trainee; Real Quiet who went off at 8-1 and over looked in the wagering that proved the best that year.

We fast forward to this year and Mr. Baffert is going as strong as ever and has another unbeatable entry in this year's running. Possibly even better than in 1998 and maybe the strongest 1/2 punch in recent memory. Last year's two year old juvenile champion; American Pharoah and the undefeated Dortmund are Baffert's dynamic duo versus 18 other runners in this year's edition. It's very tough to separate these two thoroughbreds. Dortmund is a massive son of Big Brown who hasn't tasted defeat and is coming off a dominate victory in the Santa Anita Derby. American Pharoah has reeled off four straight victories and a equally impressive victory to Dortmund's in the Arkansas Derby. So, who should deserve favoritism at 6:34pm on Saturday evening?

Back in 1998, the one Baffert runner (Indian Charlie) was the lukewarm favorite, while Real Quiet the eventual winner was really over looked at won at a price ($18.80). This year, Baffert's duo are very hard to separate either runner in the wagering. Logically one would lean toward the undefeated runner; Dortmund, especially off his impressive Santa Anita Derby. But, the case can be made for American Pharoah who won the Arkansas Derby by coming slightly off the pace for the first time and had an amazing workout last Sunday. The post position draw had little impact on who should be favorite also. Although, I think Dortmund had drawn a slightly better post at 8 than American Pharoah who will have to negotiate from outside in post 18. Even though, American Pharoah showed a new dimension by not needing the lead to win in his last start, Dortmund who had won several close races, drew off with ease by nearly five lengths in his final prep victory in California.

I have these two dead even on talent, but will lean toward the undefeated runner; Dortmund. He should be the slight favorite over American Pharoahin my opinion. But, I'll bet any money that American Pharoah in the end will be the favorite. My prediction will be he is 5-2 at post time and Dortmund at 3-1 or slightly better. But, I'll go on record right now and say if Dortmund is anywhere near a $10 payout mutual that I will make my largest win wager on a horse in 29 years of playing the ponies. That amount will be over the $20 mark, that's how confident I am with Dortmund winning this year's Running of the Roses!

I also have a sentimental pick for this year's Derby, who will be a square price even though this horse has won three straight races. International Star (#12) trained by Mike Maker swept all three prep races at the Fairgrounds in Louisiana this winter. He's a talented runner with a chance, but it's his jockey who I'll be rooting for. Miguel Mena who is based on the Kentucky circuit, will have his first ever Kentucky Derby mount today and is well known to me. Back in 2010, nearly five year's ago during the Saratoga meet, our racing outfit; Dee Tee Stables were looking for a jockey to ride our second time starter two year old; Ausable Chasm. Our racing manager; Steve Byk was in the press office and ran into Miguel who had ridden our Kickin' N Screamin' at Kentucky Downs the previous year. When Steve asked him if he wanted to ride Auasble Chasm in that maiden race, he replied "yes, thank you very much!". Well, the result was our first ever victory at Saratoga for our barn and a moment I'll never forget. Today this talented young rider has a big chance on a very "live" runner in his first Kentucky Derby. I'll be cheering him on for this chance of a lifetime.

Mark Hoffman's 2015 graded Kentucky Derby selections

Dortmund (#8) Garcia / Baffert (3-1)
this gigantic son of Big Brown is a perfect six for six in his career, he dominated his opponents with ease in the Santa Anita Derby and has showed a mental gameness when headed in his races, can stalk or be on the lead and gets the perfect post for today's race, if he is anywhere near 4-1 at post time, I'll have my BIGGEST win wager of all time!

Carpe Diem (#2) Velazquez / Pletcher (8-1)
since his highly touted debut last summer at Saratoga, he finished 2nd only once in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile with a wide trip, draws the tough inside slot and Johnny V. will need him to break alertly to have any chance at all, I have like this runner and have him covered in many future wagers.

Frosted (#15) Rosario / McLaughlin (15-1)
bounced back solidly with a two length victory in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct last time out, other than his 4th place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, he has been very consistent in his seven career races, this stalking type will be a square price.

International Star (#12) Mena / Maker (20-1)
this NY bred son of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus swept the three prep races at the Fairgrounds this past winter, a versatile runner has won on all three racing surfaces (dirt, grass, polytrack), I have a rooting interest on this horse because of his jockey; Miguel Mena with his first Derby mount and winning our first race for Dee Tee Stables at Saratoga in 2010 with Ausable Chasm.

Far Right (#20) Smith / Moquett (30-1)
void of any speed this dead closer got up for 2nd versus American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby, the post position doesn't hurt this runner and has a victory plus a second & third over the Churchill Downs strip, the past two running of this race has had the favorites win and two longshots get the runner up spot, this is your longshot to use underneath the favorites this year.

American Pharoah (#18) Espinoza / Baffert (5-2)
the reigning two year old eclipse champion of last year will be the first colt since Street Sense in 2007 to win the Kentucky Derby, ran a monster race in the Arkansas Derby last time out when coming off the pace, makes third start off his Fall layoff and had a impressive work a few days ago, he'll be the post time favorite and I'll try to beat him today.

Mubtaahij (#6) Soumillion / de Kock (20-1)
has become the "wise guy" horse with many after his impressive victory in the UAE Derby at Meydan racecourse in Dubai, always very cautious with these type runners and will not be racing on lasix today, may be over bet off his credentials, unknown factor.
Firing Line (#11) Stevens / Callaghan (12-1)
won the Sunland Park Derby by over 14 lengths as the odds-on favorite last time out, previous to that impressive victory he was lost to Dortmund by only a head two times in a row, expect him to be attending the pace.

Upstart (#19) Ortiz / Violette (15-1)
another NY bred, chased Materiality around the track in the second spot during most of the Florida Derby, has been a consistent colt so far in his career, but question whether he has what it takes to get the job going a mile and a quarter distance from such an outside post.

Materiality (#3) Castellano / Pletcher (12-1)
lightly raced undefeated son of Afleet Alex won the Florida Derby in nearly wire to wire style, broke his maiden on January 11th of this year making him unraced as a two year old, no Kentucky Derby winner since 1882 has won without racing as a juvenile.

Danzig Moon (#5) Leparoux / Casse (30-1)
finished a distant 2nd behind Carpe Diem in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in last, his running style could come into play late in the race and could clunk up for a piece at a price.

Tencendur (#4) Franco / Weaver (30-1)
had the lead in mid-stretch at 21-1 in the Wood Memorial, the third NY bred in this field may be attending the pace and will be huge price in this field.

Itsaknockout (#13) Saez / Pletcher (30-1)
his claim to fame was being placed 1st in the Fountain of Youth Stakes via a questionable disqualification of Upstart in that race, in his next start was beaten 21 lengths in the Florida Derby, horses don't usually do well off efforts like that in the Kentucky Derby.

War Story (#16) Talamo / Amoss (50-1)
ran behind International Star three times at the Fairgrounds this past winter, broke maiden here at Churchill in debut at 14-1.

Ocho Ocho Ocho (#1) Trujillo / Cassidy (50-1)

hasn't regained his two year old form in both starts this year, was on the fence in even running today and draws the dreaded inside post!

Bolo (#9) Bejarno / Gaines (30-1)

finished third behind Dortmund in his two and only starts on a dirt surface, can't see any improvement today in a 20 horse field.

Keen Ice (#14) Desormeaux / Romans (50-1)

this runner lacks any early foot and really has been no factor since breaking his maiden here last summer, that was his only career win.

Mr. Z (#17) Vazquez / Lukas (50-1)

has the most career starts of this field (12) with just a maiden victory to show for it, has the tendency to bore out in the stretch drive on several occasions, no horse has won from this post (17) ever!

Frammento (#21) Nakatani / Zito (50-1)
he's the first horse in history to draw into the race off the also eligible list, this Nick Zito runner has no speed either and comes from the clouds, big price with little chance in the win spot.

The 2015 class to thoroughbred racing's Hall of Fame!

This past Monday afternoon it was announced by the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame the four inductees in class of 2015. In a ceremony to be held on Friday, August 7th at the Fasig-Tipton pavilion in Saratoga Springs, two human and two equine finalists will be enshrined. The late jockey Chris Antley, along with trainer King Leatherbury and horses; Lava Man and Xtra Heat will take their place in the Hall of Fame. It's a long awaited induction for one of the all time leading trainers in North America, a shining moment for one of my all time favorite jockeys and plaques in the Hall of Champions for two thoroughbreds who just liked to win.

I've written about in the past, how much I liked Chris Antley as a jockey. His career started in the mid 80's around the same time I got involved in the sport. He was one of the finest jockeys on the New York circuit winning nearly 3,500 races and 127 graded stakes including two Kentucky Derby victories. In 1987, he won 9 races in a single day at two different tracks and in 1989 won at least one race a day for 64 days straight. His star-crossed career had many up and down moments, but he'll always be remembered for what he did during the running of the 1999 Belmont Stakes. In mid stretch, his mount Charismatic (who was going for the Triple Crown) injured himself and was pulled up shortly after the finish line. That's where Antley got off his mount and held Charismatic's injured leg keeping him from having any more damage done to it, this saved his life. Unfortunately a year and a half later, his demons got the best of him and Chris was gone from a drug overdose. Nevertheless tho, the memories of his great race riding will be remembered this summer.

At age 82, it's been a long wait for one of the greatest trainers on the Maryland - Mid Atlantic circuit to have his place in racing's Hall of Fame. King Leatherbury has nearly 6,500 victories, placing his fourth on the all-time career list of trainers in North America. A fixture in Maryland, he has won 52 training titles there and two in Delaware in his fifty six year career. He was also leading North American trainer twice in the late seventies. This has been a honor, long time coming for this legend.

The other "gutsy" gelding beside Funny Cide, of the last decade came from California. That's where he did a lot of winning on the west coast during the 2000's. Lava Man wasn't much early in his career, but all that changed when he was claimed for 40,000 by trainer Doug O'Neil. He went on to win seven grade I races and is third all time list behind Best Pal and Tiznow as California bred horses. Lava Man was the first horse in a generation to win a grade I race on dirt and turf in the same year and is the only horse to win a North American grade I race on dirt, turf, and an artificial racing surface. He is the all-time leading earner among claimers and possibly the greatest claim in racing history.

One of the hardest hitting filly sprinters that I can remember, gets her place in racing mortality. Xtra Heat who won 26 of 35 career starts all racing less than a mile. She was no worst than second versus her own sex in 31 career starts with only one off the board race and that was going a route distance in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies. She too was Mid Atlantic based and speed was her best asset giving her two separate six race winning streaks early in her career. Xtra Heat was definitely one of the best filly and mare sprinters the last fifteen years and paved the way for the creation of the Filly and Mare Breeder's Cup Sprint race which is part of the championship race events.

It's a nice quartet of new members to the Hall of Fame and I'll be looking forward to attending this year's induction to celebrate these great horseman and thoroughbred runners.

A look at Derby longshot runners

Last week we discuss the top Kentucky Derby contenders and their consistency in winning major derby prep races since the beginning of the year. American Pharoah and Far Right continued that trend with a one / two finish in the Arkansas Derby last weekend. That solid group of runners will be between 5-2 and 15-1 in odds come the first Saturday in May. This week, we'll look at the other half of the group. These horses will be anywhere between 15-1 and 30+ to 1. Longshots in the wagering that will spice up the exotic plays. With eighteen runners solidly in the field of twenty runners, this group should make up the remainder of the field.

First up is Firing Line, west coast runner trained by Simon Callaghan who won the Sunland Derby by 14 lengths in his last start. Runner-up behind Dortmund in his two previous starts, this pace-presser looks to be a solid longshot play who should be double digits in the wagering. Irish bred invader, Mubtaahij won the UAE Derby by eight lengths and has won four out of five dirt races all at Meydan Racetrack in Dubai. Trained by Michael de Kock, his most recent victory gained him 8-1 closing odds in the final Kentucky Derby Futures pool. An unknown factor stateside, he'll pay around a $40 mutual if he's successful at Churchill Downs. The third Todd Pletcher runner in which I forgot to mention last week is Itsaknockout , who was placed first in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. In his last start in the Florida Derby, he was a no factor fourth beaten 21 lengths. Horses usually don't rebound well off efforts like that in the Derby and look for him to be a rank outsider with a $50 win payout in odds.

Bob Baffert may have the first two betting interests in this year's Derby, but will also have this interesting longshot. One Lucky Dane, was runner-up behind his stablemate last start in the Santa Anita Derby and makes his third start off a layoff. Only one bad race in his career, he looks to be a solid price who will have to improve versus a large field on derby day. Along with aforementioned last horse, the next three horses were runner-up finishers in their final prep races for the derby. Danzig Moon, Tencendur and Stanford all got the place spot in their most recent starts. Two of the three runners (Stanford & Tencendur) held the lead in the stretch, only to be over taken late. Stanford, from the Pletcher quartet has flashed speed in both his two-turn route races. He'll add speed to the mix along with the N.Y. bred runner; Tencendur who was behind Frosted in the Wood Memorial at 21-1.Danzig Moon has the look of a stalking runner and was 15-1 behind Carpe Diem in the Bluegrass Stakes. All three of these runners will be near 30-1 in the odds and were no match for the horses who finished in front of them last out.

We round out the probable field of twenty runners with the rank outsiders in the field who undoubtly will be between 30-1 and 50-1 in the morning line odds. War Story, Mr.Z, Ocho Ocho Ocho, Bolo and Keen Ice haven't impacted any of the recent prep races. War Story couldn't get close enough to International Star in any of the Louisiana prep races and that winner may be 10-1 or better in the Derby. Mr. Z adds speed to the Derby with only a maiden victory to his credit, plus when he tires likes to bare out in the stretch. Keen Ice is another runner with only a maiden win and no early foot. Both Bolo and Ocho Ocho Ocho are still on the fence whether they run, but neither has made a real impact in their prep races.

It comes down to a separation point in the Derby group of twenty runners. The 6 to 12 runners with a legitimate chance to finish in the top three and eight to ten other runners that would like to hit the board at double digit odds. Any way you cut it, the payouts in this year's Derby will have value even if the upper crust runners finish in the exotics.

The final piece ....... of a good looking group of Kentucky Derby contenders

The final piece of the 2015 Kentucky Derby prep trail concludes today with the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. It features American Pharoah, last year's two year old Eclipse award winning thoroughbred trained by Bob Baffert. He has been one of the leading runners since last summer as a juvenile and makes his second start this year as a three year old looking to further his favoritism ranking for the First Saturday in May. He along with last weekend's prep winners; Carpe Diem in the Bluegrass Stakes and Dortmund in the Santa Anita Derby they are the likely top three colts in the betting for this year's Derby. It's been a path of likely winners this year on the Road to the Kentucky with the 23 prep races since January.

Six runners reached the winner's circle multiple times (Dortmund, Carpe Diem, International Star, El Kabeir, Far Right and Upstart). Although, Upstart was placed second after winning the Fountain of Youth for interference with Itsaknockout in the stretch run. Eight of the prep race winners were odds-on at post time, with only four paying double digits and just one (International Star) with a mutual over twenty dollars. The winning payout has been $6.40 making this one of the most formful road of derby prep races in recent years. Unlike the previous when there was a standout Derby favorite or a group of runners that was undistinguishable making a high price favorite, this year's group is a solid bunch of horses that have accomplished a lot so far this year.

The above six mention horses make up the top contenders along with American Pharoah, Frosted, Far Right and Materiality. That's half the Kentucky Derby field with a legitimate shot of winning it all. With a American Pharoah victory today, he could possibly be the post time favorite in three weeks. But, it will be tough to deny Dortmund that status because of his undefeated five race winning streak to begin his career. These two Baffert runners harkens back to 1998 when he had the Derby favorite; Indian Charlie and eventually winner; Real Quiet. So, it 's most likely that he will have the top two horses vying for favoritism once again.

Todd Pletcher may have the most runners entered, but not likely the post time favorite. Carpe Diem and Materiality are his two leading runners with longshots Stanford and possibly another runner from today's Arkansas Derby; Madefromlucky. There are other consistent sorts who have won multiple prep races and may be overlooked. International Star has sweep all three preps at the Fairgrounds and Far Right will try to win his third stake at Oaklawn Park today. Upstart, El Kabeir and Frosted also have danced every dance this winter and spring and can't be discounted. This makes a group of three year old that have been consistent and with an equal shot in many ways, at a variety of prices.

I'm looking at between 5-2 to 3-1 for the post time favorite and possibly a half dozen other runners who will be under 10-1. The longshots for this year's Derby may all be grouped from 15-1 to 30-1. It's doubtful we'll see anything near the 50-1 range in this years field. Like always, the exotic payouts will be good even if those top six runners show up in the final finish. But, one thing is for sure and that is the 2015 Kentucky Derby will showcase the most accomplished group of thoroughbred three year old runners in quite sometime. They're races this year up to this point have bee that indicated and hopefully this group will stay together after the Derby and Triple Crown races. This is a plus for the sport, especially the future. Exciting times are ahead the next few weeks!

The big three preps showcase possible 2015 Kentucky Derby favorite

We have the second round of final three year old prep races today for this year's Kentucky Derby. Last weekend, the winners were among the top betting choices and proving that this year's road to Louisville will have a solid group of contenders without just one or two runners head and shoulders above the others. International Star swept all three stake race preps at the Fairgrounds this winter. A horse who started his career on dirt, he blossomed on the dirt surface in Louisiana under his jockey Miguel Mena. Even with these winning efforts, he'll have to show whether he'll adapt to other dirt surfaces like he had there. His dirt effort at Churchill as a two year old was a no factor even fourth. Also, this runner is a N.Y. bred, trying to follow in the footsteps of the "gutsy gelding" Funny Cide from a decade ago.

The Florida preps wrapped up with the usual group of same suspects and the result mirror the most recent running of the Florida Derby a year ago. The Todd Pletcher armada had a lightly raced three year old in 2014 that did not make his debut until his three year old season. That horse was Constitution, and was the new face upsetting the apple cart one year ago. Unfortunately, he got hurt before the Kentucky Derby and did not race, although has returned as a four year old. This year he has Materiality, who just like Constitution had not raced as a juvenile. And just like last year's Florida Derby, Pletcher had another winner and top Derby contender. This son of Afleet Alex was making his third career start and is now a perfect three for three. With his victory, the Todd Pletcher group of derby contender now stands at five, down one from six when Far From Over, one of the favorites for today's Wood Memorial came up with an injury and is now off the derby trail.

The first of the prep races we'll look at today is the Wood Memorial (10th) at Aqueduct. The mile and an eighth final derby prep in New York has assembled seven evenly matched runners with one proven commodity this winter in New York. El Kabeir (#5) makes his fourth start this year with two victories and a second place finish. The reliable son of Scat Daddy is making his ninth lifetime start overall and does have a win over the Churchill strip last Fall as a two year old. His main danger is the Pletcher runner; Daredevil (#6) shipping up from Gulfstream Park. Two for two on off tracks in his career, he makes his second start of the season after running second in his seasonal debut sprinting in the seven furlong Swale Stakes in Florida. My top selection though, will be a horse who ran good here as a two year old last Fall going this same distance. The Kiaran McLaughlin trained; Frosted (#4) was a sharp second in the Remsen Stakes from the far outside 13 post in that race and also broke his maiden over the strip going a flat mile. Wood Memorial selections : 4-5-6-1.

Eight are entered in the Toyota Bluegrass Stakes (10th) at Keeneland going the same distance also. Today marks the race return to natural dirt for the first time since the polytrack was removed last summer. There is a prohibited favorite here though in Carpe Diem (#5) who won here last Fall in the Breeder's Futurity and has only been beaten once in his career. That was with a wide trip in last year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile behind Texas Red. He's my top Kentucky Derby horse and my top pick here. For second, Classy Class (#7) ships in from Aqueduct after two third place finishes in stake races there, fits well here. I'll round out my triples and superfectas with both Frammento (#6) and Unrivaled (#4) as longshots.

The final major prep we shift to the west coast and Santa Anita Park for their derby (8th) , once again going the same distance on dirt. Here only six are going, with one huge standout in many ways than one. Dortmund (#1) is undefeated in five career starts and shows a special gameness in his victories fighting back when headed by other horses. This son of Big Brown is a rather large imposing horse and could be the favorite at Churchill in a few weeks with a victory today. The two runners who will try to derail him are closer Prospect Park (#5) and Bolo (#4) who will most likely stalk him. I see it a very 1-5-4 chalky finish.