Today mark's the 17th year of my column with the Recorder, AT THE POST. I started this column on the day of the 124th running of the Kentucky Derby, May 2nd 1998. It was the first writing of any sort since my high school days, 17 years earlier. That year, trainer Bob Baffert was coming off a victory in this race one year earlier with Silver Charm and a nose defeat in 1996 with Cavonnier. A field of 15 were entered and once again, Bob Baffert had the lukewarm favorite in Indian Charlie at 5-2. He was coming off a victory in the Santa Anita Derby that year and was a strong contender to give Baffert his second consecutive Derby winner. Two year old champion; Favorite Trick was the second choice with a Lukas and Zito horses rounding out the top four wagering favorites. But, it was the other Bob Baffert trainee; Real Quiet who went off at 8-1 and over looked in the wagering that proved the best that year.
We fast forward to this year and Mr. Baffert is going as strong as ever and has another unbeatable entry in this year's running. Possibly even better than in 1998 and maybe the strongest 1/2 punch in recent memory. Last year's two year old juvenile champion; American Pharoah and the undefeated Dortmund are Baffert's dynamic duo versus 18 other runners in this year's edition. It's very tough to separate these two thoroughbreds. Dortmund is a massive son of Big Brown who hasn't tasted defeat and is coming off a dominate victory in the Santa Anita Derby. American Pharoah has reeled off four straight victories and a equally impressive victory to Dortmund's in the Arkansas Derby. So, who should deserve favoritism at 6:34pm on Saturday evening?
Back in 1998, the one Baffert runner (Indian Charlie) was the lukewarm favorite, while Real Quiet the eventual winner was really over looked at won at a price ($18.80). This year, Baffert's duo are very hard to separate either runner in the wagering. Logically one would lean toward the undefeated runner; Dortmund, especially off his impressive Santa Anita Derby. But, the case can be made for American Pharoah who won the Arkansas Derby by coming slightly off the pace for the first time and had an amazing workout last Sunday. The post position draw had little impact on who should be favorite also. Although, I think Dortmund had drawn a slightly better post at 8 than American Pharoah who will have to negotiate from outside in post 18. Even though, American Pharoah showed a new dimension by not needing the lead to win in his last start, Dortmund who had won several close races, drew off with ease by nearly five lengths in his final prep victory in California.
I have these two dead even on talent, but will lean toward the undefeated runner; Dortmund. He should be the slight favorite over American Pharoahin my opinion. But, I'll bet any money that American Pharoah in the end will be the favorite. My prediction will be he is 5-2 at post time and Dortmund at 3-1 or slightly better. But, I'll go on record right now and say if Dortmund is anywhere near a $10 payout mutual that I will make my largest win wager on a horse in 29 years of playing the ponies. That amount will be over the $20 mark, that's how confident I am with Dortmund winning this year's Running of the Roses!
I also have a sentimental pick for this year's Derby, who will be a square price even though this horse has won three straight races. International Star (#12) trained by Mike Maker swept all three prep races at the Fairgrounds in Louisiana this winter. He's a talented runner with a chance, but it's his jockey who I'll be rooting for. Miguel Mena who is based on the Kentucky circuit, will have his first ever Kentucky Derby mount today and is well known to me. Back in 2010, nearly five year's ago during the Saratoga meet, our racing outfit; Dee Tee Stables were looking for a jockey to ride our second time starter two year old; Ausable Chasm. Our racing manager; Steve Byk was in the press office and ran into Miguel who had ridden our Kickin' N Screamin' at Kentucky Downs the previous year. When Steve asked him if he wanted to ride Auasble Chasm in that maiden race, he replied "yes, thank you very much!". Well, the result was our first ever victory at Saratoga for our barn and a moment I'll never forget. Today this talented young rider has a big chance on a very "live" runner in his first Kentucky Derby. I'll be cheering him on for this chance of a lifetime.
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