Dortmund (#8) Garcia / Baffert (3-1)
this gigantic son of Big Brown is a perfect six for six in his career, he dominated his opponents with ease in the Santa Anita Derby and has showed a mental gameness when headed in his races, can stalk or be on the lead and gets the perfect post for today's race, if he is anywhere near 4-1 at post time, I'll have my BIGGEST win wager of all time!
Carpe Diem (#2) Velazquez / Pletcher (8-1)
since his highly touted debut last summer at Saratoga, he finished 2nd only once in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile with a wide trip, draws the tough inside slot and Johnny V. will need him to break alertly to have any chance at all, I have like this runner and have him covered in many future wagers.
Frosted (#15) Rosario / McLaughlin (15-1)
bounced back solidly with a two length victory in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct last time out, other than his 4th place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, he has been very consistent in his seven career races, this stalking type will be a square price.
International Star (#12) Mena / Maker (20-1)
this NY bred son of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus swept the three prep races at the Fairgrounds this past winter, a versatile runner has won on all three racing surfaces (dirt, grass, polytrack), I have a rooting interest on this horse because of his jockey; Miguel Mena with his first Derby mount and winning our first race for Dee Tee Stables at Saratoga in 2010 with Ausable Chasm.
Far Right (#20) Smith / Moquett (30-1)
void of any speed this dead closer got up for 2nd versus American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby, the post position doesn't hurt this runner and has a victory plus a second & third over the Churchill Downs strip, the past two running of this race has had the favorites win and two longshots get the runner up spot, this is your longshot to use underneath the favorites this year.
American Pharoah (#18) Espinoza / Baffert (5-2)
the reigning two year old eclipse champion of last year will be the first colt since Street Sense in 2007 to win the Kentucky Derby, ran a monster race in the Arkansas Derby last time out when coming off the pace, makes third start off his Fall layoff and had a impressive work a few days ago, he'll be the post time favorite and I'll try to beat him today.
Mubtaahij (#6) Soumillion / de Kock (20-1)
has become the "wise guy" horse with many after his impressive victory in the UAE Derby at Meydan racecourse in Dubai, always very cautious with these type runners and will not be racing on lasix today, may be over bet off his credentials, unknown factor.
Firing Line (#11) Stevens / Callaghan (12-1)
won the Sunland Park Derby by over 14 lengths as the odds-on favorite last time out, previous to that impressive victory he was lost to Dortmund by only a head two times in a row, expect him to be attending the pace.
Upstart (#19) Ortiz / Violette (15-1)
another NY bred, chased Materiality around the track in the second spot during most of the Florida Derby, has been a consistent colt so far in his career, but question whether he has what it takes to get the job going a mile and a quarter distance from such an outside post.
Materiality (#3) Castellano / Pletcher (12-1)
lightly raced undefeated son of Afleet Alex won the Florida Derby in nearly wire to wire style, broke his maiden on January 11th of this year making him unraced as a two year old, no Kentucky Derby winner since 1882 has won without racing as a juvenile.
Danzig Moon (#5) Leparoux / Casse (30-1)
finished a distant 2nd behind Carpe Diem in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in last, his running style could come into play late in the race and could clunk up for a piece at a price.
Tencendur (#4) Franco / Weaver (30-1)
had the lead in mid-stretch at 21-1 in the Wood Memorial, the third NY bred in this field may be attending the pace and will be huge price in this field.
Itsaknockout (#13) Saez / Pletcher (30-1)
his claim to fame was being placed 1st in the Fountain of Youth Stakes via a questionable disqualification of Upstart in that race, in his next start was beaten 21 lengths in the Florida Derby, horses don't usually do well off efforts like that in the Kentucky Derby.
War Story (#16) Talamo / Amoss (50-1)
ran behind International Star three times at the Fairgrounds this past winter, broke maiden here at Churchill in debut at 14-1.
Ocho Ocho Ocho (#1) Trujillo / Cassidy (50-1)
hasn't regained his two year old form in both starts this year, was on the fence in even running today and draws the dreaded inside post!
Bolo (#9) Bejarno / Gaines (30-1)
finished third behind Dortmund in his two and only starts on a dirt surface, can't see any improvement today in a 20 horse field.
Keen Ice (#14) Desormeaux / Romans (50-1)
this runner lacks any early foot and really has been no factor since breaking his maiden here last summer, that was his only career win.
Mr. Z (#17) Vazquez / Lukas (50-1)
has the most career starts of this field (12) with just a maiden victory to show for it, has the tendency to bore out in the stretch drive on several occasions, no horse has won from this post (17) ever!
Frammento (#21) Nakatani / Zito (50-1)
he's the first horse in history to draw into the race off the also eligible list, this Nick Zito runner has no speed either and comes from the clouds, big price with little chance in the win spot.
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