Everybody likes the "underdog", the team who always wins is less popular. In thoroughbred racing, everyone wants the "longshot", nobody makes money with the favorite. It was twenty one straight years from 1979 until 2000 that the post time favorite did not win the Kentucky Derby. In the last 15 years since then, we've had seven and three straight in a row. The trend of "favorites don't win the derby" has changed. While a few have been lukewarm favorites (Smarty Jones, Street Sense, Orb) others like Fusiachi Pegasus, Big Brown and most recent winners; California Chrome and American Pharoah have paid under $10.00.
When American Pharoah crossed the line first last Saturday evening, the trend of winning favorites was extended in the race. Not only in the Kentucky Derby have we seen the parade of "chalk" reach the winners circle, but it has been this way the entire Triple Crown trail in the prep races leading up to this race. As stated in a previous column, the 25 major prep races since January of this year produced a $6.40 paying mutual. As the favorite once again, American Pharoah paid $7.80 just under 3-1 odds. Many predicted he would be the post time favorite and even drifted up a bit from his lower odds when wagering started on Friday afternoon. It came down between him and entry mate; Dortmund who was the second solid choice at a little over 4-1. These two along with Firing Line who was fourth in wagering and you had three of the four runners under double digits. This meant low exotic payouts, something we aren't used to in the Kentucky Derby.
The exacta ($72.60) was the smallest since 2004, 11 years ago when another favorite; Smarty Jones won and Lion Heart who chased him around the track was second. Even more low were the two other payouts that usually command big prices in this race. The trifecta of 18-10-8 was the lowest paying triple in twenty years ($202.00). A wager that has huge payouts was averaging over $2,400 in the last seven straight Kentucky Derbies. Even the superfecta which has average $90,000 on the one dollar wager since it's inception to the race in 1996, was less than 1,000 ($634) second lowest ever. A let down to most people wagering on this racing, which you are usually well rewarded for. In a full field of thoroughbreds with usually has the most of any race during the year, big prices are the norm. This year, that was the biggest disappointment.
Even though the 2015 Kentucky Derby wasn't the money maker everyone loves, it did prove that this group of three year olds is a good one. Both Baffert runners did not disappoint and runner-up Firing Line (who took late money) produced a very chalky outcome. Unfortunately also, the race was settle at the top of the stretch with these three horses. Frosted closed late and only other horse worth mentioning was Materiality, who had a bad break at the start and finished well spite his trip. This unfortunately doesn't spell well for the second leg of the Triple Crown; the Preakness Stakes. Only the top three in the money finishers and possibly Danzig Moon (5th) Carpe Diem (10th) and Mr. Z (13th) are the only returnees for Baltimore. New shooters Divining Rod (1st ~ Lexington Stakes) and Bodhisattva (1st ~ Federico Teso Stakes) are the only definites. Todd Pletcher who usually doesn't have many Preakness runners, may also race; Stanford or Competitive Edge both who have shown speed in their last starts.
The next leg of the Triple Crown always is noted for smaller payouts, that's the norm. But now we can add the Kentucky Derby as a race where predictability is a common thing, at least this year. The good thing about predictability though, the horses doing that are the good ones. And that is good for the sport.
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