We've seen this movie before, horse wins two of the biggest races in the world. The hype begins the moment the race is official, the comparisons begin with past horses trying to accomplish the same feat. A story that has been well known since 1978, the last time a thoroughbred won the Triple Crown. A large group have tried and all have failed. Some horses were very talented and became household names in the future. But, there were others that just are remembered as winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, then nothing else. This story never gets old and unfortunately always seems to disappoint.
There has been twenty year gap between Citation in 1948 and the great Secretariat in 1973. We had three Triple Crown winners in a six year span in the 70's and since then, none. Lucky 13 have tried since Affirmed in 1978, although with I'll Have Another scratching the day before in 2012, I don't count him as one of them. I wasn't following racing before 1985, so the failure of Spectacular Bid in 1979 and Pleasant Colony in 1981 wasn't something I remembered. Although, I believe that Spectacular Bid was the "best" horse never to win the Crown, based on his racing record after the Triple Crown and his career. Last Saturday, when the skies opened up and the rain came, American Pharoah cemented himself as the next horse to try the bid.
He is the fourth Bob Baffert trained horse attempting this feat. Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998 and War Emblem in 2002 were his three runners who came up one race short from being part of history. In two weeks, his two year old champion from last year will try to go where others have failed. This horse has been well thought of ever since he won Del Mar Futurity early last Fall. After a short two year old campaign, his trainer waited until mid-March to make his three year old debut at Oaklawn Park and on a sloppy sealed track no less. That should have been the key for anyone wagering on him last Saturday. He was the only runner who proved he could handle the slop and that made him tough to beat in the Preakness.
So, now the debate begins whether he'll become the twelve horse to accomplished this feat. There have been some good horses who have try, and then others who just got lucky in the first two legs. It's a grueling trek, three races in five weeks. Three races at three different classic distances and also at three different tracks. A tough task for any horse, especially a young three year old runner. But, is this year any different than the past other 13 other horses who tried before?
Disappointing has been the normal for the sport when it comes to the Triple Crown. Since I've been following the sport, it's become a common thing. Back in 1998, I said to myself that Real Quiet getting beat at the wire would be the closest I would see a Triple Crown winner while handicapping the sport. Six year's later, Smarty Jones in 2004 was undefeated and captured the sport with fans who knew nothing about the horse racing. He too got run down late and never raced again after his Belmont Stakes attempt. Then there was Big Brown in 2008, the horse I loved to hate. He proved to be the fraud I thought he was when he was "pulled up" at the top of the stretch and did not finish the race. Finally, after being disappointed the day before the 2012 edition when I'll Have Another was scratched when I was going to my first Belmont Stakes and last year, when the popular California Chrome failed, I have lost all hope to see a Triple Crown winner in the rest of my lifetime.
So, will I jump on the bandwagon of horse that I didn't give much of a chance in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness? Will I try to beat him with the "fresh" horses that didn't race in the first two legs or skipped the Preakness? Or will I just succumb along with the masses and coronate American Pharoah as the next Triple Crown winner and greatest horse of our generation. Well, I got two weeks to figure it out and even then, I won't make any guarantees!
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