We've reached the second leg of the Triple Crown; the Preakness Stakes at "Old Hilltop" Pimlico Racetrack in Baltimore, Maryland. A race that is a sixteenth of a mile shorter than the mile and a quarter Kentucky Derby, it is the most formful of the three Triple Crown races. The average winning mutual in the last 15 running's of this race is $11.00. Also in the last 15 editions of the Preakness, the Kentucky Derby winner was only out-of-the-money 4 times (Monarchos 6th ~ Barbaro DNF ~ Super Saver 8th ~ Orb 4th). The Preakness winner has produced 12 of the last 15 three year old champions and the Derby winner has been favored in 11 of the last 15 running's of the Preakness. This race is one of the most easiest to predict off these stats. With the consistent formful races that this year's class of sophomores have had, things should be no different today.
Eight three year olds are entered today, only three "new shooters" and five who contested the Kentucky Derby. The field can clearly be cut in half, three longshot newcomers (Bohisattva, Divining Rod, Tale of Verve) and the annual Lukas longshot runner (Mr. Z) and the four of the top 5 Derby finishers (Danzig Moon, Dortmund, Firing Line, American Pharoah). We've discussed about how favorites had dominated all the Triple Crown prep races and Kentucky Derby. It's highly likely with the history of this race for the last 15 years that this trend will remain the same. So, if you are looking for a big price payout for today's race, you'll get the yearbook quote from my late friend; Frank Colvin; "Not here pal!".
My take on the race is simple, one of two Bob Baffert horses will win. Unlike in the Kentucky Derby where it's unusual that horses finishing one / two are trained by the same trainer, in the Preakness with this shorter field, the best two horses stand tall over the rest of the group. Some have said that the post position of the Baffert runners drawing the two inside posts will hurt them. I strongly disagree, if American Pharoah is as good as people think he is, he'll overcome post one. I know anything can happen in this shorter field in the Preakness, but class out weighs their opponents ability. If I'm forgetting second place runner up in the Derby; Firing Line, it's all by design for me. Firing Line ran a great race, chasing Dortmund and getting out finished by American Pharoah. But he looked very leg worry the last eighth of a mile and was leaning on the winner near the finish. I think he regresses on the two week turn around and will be my play against in the top two spots.
Structuring your exotic plays will be the key here. I find it tough to separate the Baffert runners and will go with my Derby pick; Dortmund to turn the tables on his stablemate today. I'll go on record now and say that Bob Baffert wins the Triple Crown, only with two different horses. After today, he'll have the first two legs of the Triple Crown, the question is which runner will it be? With that said, a American Pharoah victory means Triple Crown mania for the Belmont Stakes three weeks from now. The crazy frenzy will descend on NYRA and they got a plan, limit the amount of people attending the Belmont Stakes to 90,000 people. That's saying that they (NYRA) can't handle the previous crowds that gather for past Triple Crown tries. I know first hand that they couldn't last year, especially after the races were over in regards to people exiting Belmont Park. But those problems can be handled with better planning and not limiting the attendance. Just another reason to stay away if there is a Triple Crown bid. But that only matter with a American Pharoah victory today, and that's a 50/50 chance in my opinion.
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