2009 Dubai World Cup card selections

The 14th annual Dubai World Cup racing card starts at 9:40am (EST) with the one mile; Godolphin Mile (gr.II) with a field of 15 entered. The lukewarm early 3-1 morning line favorite is American bred; Two Step Salsa (#4) , which won a sprint race over the course in his desert debut. Finishing eight out of nine times in the money, he will be the first of many morning line favorites I’ll try to beat. My top selection goes to the “other” American runner and winner over the course; Gayego (#13). He also won a sprint prep for this event, but it was in graded stake company. The favorite will be used underneath along with Summer Doldrums (#3), Tiz Now Tiz Then (#8) & Dijeerr (#15).

The desert Kentucky Derby prep is up next in the UAE Derby . Run at the mile an and eighth distance, this year’s favorite towers over the field of 13. Desert Party (#5) , who was one of four American horses purchased last year by Godolphin and Darley Stables, came out the best in winning the two prep races for this event. For second; the “other” American horse that ran behind the top pick in his last two previous races; Regal Ransom (#1) looks to be second best again. Below these two, I’ll use; Lelah Dorak (#3), Redding Colliery (#6) & Naval Officer (#12).

The grade I – Dubai Golden Shaheen is a six furlong test being contest sprinting down a straight chute (no turns). The four year old American filly; Indian Blessing drew the very favorable (#12) spot and will have a clear spot to catch the leaders and gets my top pick. Big City Man (#2) shows a second and two wins in his three desert sprints this year and is my second selection. The exotics plays underneath these two are; Diabolical (#3), Lucky Quality (#4) & Machismo (#9).

The Dubai Duty Free is the first of two grass races on the World Cup card. Here the 7-2 morning line favorite Paco Boy (#4) has never won beyond seven furlongs and will be racing a mile and an eighth today. I won’t be using him at all and look to use a Japanese mare that is 10-1 morning line on top. Vodka (#3) had no chance last time out over the track with a rough trip. Last year she was 4th in this event and looks like the value play here. For second, Archipenko (#10) won the one mile prep for this easily and is the horse to beat. Underneath those two, I’ll use; Gladiatoris (#2), Niconero (#4) & Presvis (#16).

The Dubai Sheema Classic is the turf equivalent of the Dubai World Cup. Fifteen are entered here with no clear cut favorite. Once again, I’ll look for a price with Eastern Anthem (#2) at 20-1 on the morning line. Although he has never faced this kind before, he is two for two over the Nad Al Sheba course during the just concluded carnival. Quijano (#10) may get bet again, but is hard to use on top with just one win in the last two years, I’ll put him second. Front House (#1), Russian Sage (#3) & Doctor Dino (#13) will be the runners used underneath my two longshot plays.

The feature of the mid-afternoon here and main event of the night; the World Cup, doesn’t have a Curlin this year. But, the local favorite gets the call here for me. Asiatic Boy (#4) won the last prep here for this race and the former UAE Derby winner of two years ago will look to win the gold for Michael de Kock. My Indy (#14) for the local connections; Godolphin Stables will get the runner-up spot. I’m going to try and beat the lukewarm American post time favorite Albertus Maximus (#10) and leave him off all my tickets together. Horses I’ll use underneath my top two picks will be; Muhannek (#1), Arson Squad (#2) & Casino Drive (#8).

On a roll.....and lovin' it!

Recently, Capital OTB had their annual “Sun and Snow” Showdown contest. The bi-weekly five week contest consisted of three races at both Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park on Friday and Saturday. The object was to correctly choose one horse to finish either first or second. If you were successful, you received the price it paid for both those positions. Fifty contestants entered and my luck was consistent showing a plus ROI (return on investment) the first three weeks of the contest. This placed me in the top ten standings and was the best I’ve done in this type contest ever. Week #4; I slipped a bit with negative showing, but maintained the 3rd place showing going into the final two days last week. The first place contestant was about $25.00 ahead of me and the second place contender. He decided to play it safe the final week, while I took a chance with a morning line longshot in the final race at Gulfstream Park.

Trainer Barclay Tagg had a well bred first time starter entered for a maiden claiming tag named Jersey Town. Amazing, this horse went off at odds of 10-1 and won by a little over a length. The payouts in the race $22.40 for win and $9.40 to place, which gave me a five week total of $324.10 in the contest, which earned me first place by $5.20 margin over the current leader. The total money wagered for the five week contest was $240 by each contestant; my final money total was +84.10 more than the amount wagered. For me, it was the best result I ever had in such a contest. I looked at each race and was looking for a horse that wasn’t a favorite, yet not a huge longshot.

Carefully looking at the past performances, I selected a horse with odds that would be between 5-2 and 7-1 and had consistent “in the money” finishes. The handicapping the races on the Aqueduct Inner-track part of the contest was a little easier than at Gulfstream because of the smaller fields and cheaper type claming races. The Gulfstream races had full fields of three year old maiden races and full fields on the “proper surface” grass. The first four weeks of the contest, the Aqueduct portion of the contest seemed to be easier and more successful for myself. It was the final day of week #5 at Gulfstream where my biggest and most important score, put me over the top.

Not only was it a successful contest for myself, but the 3rd place finisher rallied for the spot and is a good friend of mine from high school. It was a victory from two boys from Fort Plain, who grew up loving thoroughbred racing and spent many days at the Fort Plain OTB branch throughout the years. One week from today, we’ll both head to the Albany Tele-Theater to receive the second part of our contest winnings and a wager on the Florida Derby. If our luck continues and the “handicapping gods” shine down on us, it will be another winning day for the boys from Fort Plain.

ATP Kentucky Derby "20" with 8 weeks to go

1) Pioneerof the Nile (2) beat nothing in the San Felipe, Santa Anita Derby next 4/4
2) Friesan Fire (3) swept the Fairgrounds series of three year old races, solid
3) Old Fashioned (1) beaten by 50-1 shot in the Rebel, needs to relax on the front end
4) The Pamplemousse (new) sharp front end win in the Sham, SA Derby next
5) Quality Road (new) break through victory in the Fountain of Youth, not nominated
6) I Want Revenge (re-entry) took to dirt like a fish to water, the wise guy horse now
7) Chocolate Candy (new) Northern Cal runner headed to the SA Derby
8) Dunkirk (new) blasted on the scene much like Big Brown last year, needs graded $$$
9) Musket Man (new) redeemed himself in the Tampa Bay Derby, may be a cut below these
10) Theregoesjojo (19) sharp finished in the Fountain of Youth, getting better
11) Take the Points (new) right behind The Pamplemousse last start, longshot look
12) Desert Party (new) two for two in the deserts of Dubai, has won here last summer
13) Imperial Council (13) closed for 2nd in the Gotham, better going long in the Wood
14) Papa Clem (new) held 2nd in the Louisiana Derby, proved he can handle any surface
15) Beethoven (4) rallied late in the Fountain of Youth, plodder type?
16) Hello Broadway (9) didn't fire in the TB Derby, don't know what to make of him
17) Terrain (new) rallied in the slop at the Fairgrounds, needed that effort
18) West Side Bernie (new) still wondering where he'll appear next
19) Mr. Hot Stuff (new) rallied up the rail in the Sham, half brother to Colonel John
20) Win Willy (new) upset Old Fashioned at 56-1 in the Rebel, liked his closing kick

Latest on Dee Tee Stables....from 'Facebook'

From the Dee Tee Stables 'Facebook' page.....

Wanted to get a note out with an update on the three two year olds who are all on the Rea Quarter Horse Farm in Shelbyville, KY receiving initial racetrack indoctrination.

The 2 Smarty Jones colts, who arrived first, have been progressing nicely. The Redbord King has been particularly quick picking up on lessons and is an eager work horse. Harold Carmichael is much lazier and needs to be pushed along to get him to work. Both appear athletic and not as high strung as many of the Smarties are reported to be.

A LATE UPDATE TO THIS UPDATE... King and Harold have progressed to the point where they will be joining the Simon barn string next week...

Missus Mayflower, the Northern Afleet filly, is a bit of a princess who only wants to do what she wants to do and has required a lot of special attention. From the filly's time at Bluegrass Equine Center, Bethani White had suggested, in less polite terms, that the petite was 'difficult'. She particularly does not like anyone touching her on the hind end, and the Rea's have been working hard to get her to be less sensitive.

Because the 3 year old Run Burgundy had been left alone for the much of the second half of 2008, he has been given some remedial work to get re-acclimated to racetrack life. He will be joining Chuck's string at Trackside within days, and will be pointed for an initial start later in the Spring. We will get a more detailed report about the big Point Given son once Chuck has had him a week or two...

We will try to get some new photos of the two year olds this month.

As for an update on the 04 group, shares are just about 50% sold and we invite partners to bring in friends or family to this bargain value offering. There is no racing club available where the low one-time buy-in gets partners in on 4 horses...

As always, thanks to everyone for their support and enthusiasm. The 2009 season is literally kickin' into gear next week with Kickin N Screamin scheduled to run March 16 at Turfway and Rampillion tentatively starting a week or two later. Sumwonlovesyou was re-shod at last week and continues to work her way back to the races, and Aldebutante has started her rehab program with a return to full training about 6 weeks away.

More as soon as Friday!

Dubai "Super Thursday" selections 3/5

2nd
most likely - Jose Adan #1
value play - Muy Ponderado #6
exotic adds - So Shiny #3 / Paso De Gloria #2

3rd
most likely - Naval Officer #7
value play - Liberation #12
exotic adds - City Style #9 / Galactos #1

4th
most likely - Big City Man #5
value play - Redding Colliery #9
exotic adds - Diabolical #4 / Gayego #7

5th
most likely - Honour Devil #1
value play - Pascal #5
exotic adds - Snaafy #9 / Summer Doldrums #4

6th
most likely - Quijano #9
value play - Fiery Lad #3
exotic adds - Front House #16 / Mourilyan #4

7th
most likely - ASIATIC BOY #15
value play - Merchant Marine #9
exotic adds - Art of War #1 / Muhannek #16

8th
most likely - Vodka #7
value play - Strategic News #5
exotic adds - Russian Sage #10 / Vertigineux #13