We have a PATTERN forming here ...... and a good one!

I wanted to start my column off with a definition of a word that seems to be getting a lot of play recently in my world and the word is; pattern. Pattern, the definition in Merriam-Webster's dictionary is "regular and repeated way in which something happens or is done, something that happens in a regular and repeated way." We think of these actions when it comes to a regular and continuous result. Whether we consciously know we are doing them or it becomes second nature, a pattern forms when normal events return time and time again. In the world of thoroughbred racing, one pattern stands above all others, a horse in the spring winning three races in a row on the highest stage; the Triple Crown.

We saw just that less than a year ago when American Pharoah started his quest to make racing history by winning the Kentucky Derby. Many times before, three year old runners tried to duplicate a Derby victory with two more in the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. Some got the first two legs, but most failed the final one. That was until last year. When American Pharoah got the job done, visions of the last horses to sweep the Triple Crown appeared in my head. It had been many years, since 1978 when Affirmed battled Alydar in a classic for the ages, three race competition. Just one year before that, Seattle Slew did the hat trick as an undefeated three year old horse. And only a few years prior to that, the great Secretariat captured the world with his tour-de-force of the Triple Crown. From 1973 to 1978, there was a "pattern" forming in the thoroughbred world.

Now, we flash forward to the last three years along the Triple Crown trail. In 2013, the Shug McGaughey trained; Orb won the Kentucky as the lukewarm favorite. Although he failed in the next two races, the betting people found a quality runner to make favoritism in the toughest race of the year. But, the pattern grows more apparent the next two. A unheralded horse from California, found the right spot to get good at the right time. California Chrome in 2015 glided through the first two legs of the Triple Crown much the best and as the favorite in both races. While he came up a bit short in the Belmont Stakes that year, the pattern of three year old runners winning as the betting favorites was coming true. Of course last year, American Pharoah sealed the deal as the favorite to win all three races and the Triple Crown. Three horses, all favorites winning six of the nine Triple Crown races in a three year span. Not since the heyday's of Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed have we seen a simliair "pattern".

Now, we have a solid favorite for this year's edition of the Kentucky Derby in Nyquist, a undefeated three year old runner who patterns much like last year's winner and Triple Crown hero; American Pharoah in many ways. But, the main pattern here is that we will be trying to have the Kentucky Derby post time favorite, win the Run for the Roses for four straight years! This is something that hasn't been accomplished since 1975, when previous four Kentucky Derby winners were all favored at post time. This stat goes back even farther than American Pharoah breaking the Triple Crown jinx last year! And in my opinion, Nyquist will break that streak today and become the fourth straight Kentucky Derby post time favorite to win the blanket of roses. This is a real "pattern" that may lie for the future and just maybe Déjà vu, all over again on this year's Triple Crown trail. It would be nice to have that pattern we had in the mid seventies in thoroughbred racing. I believe it's going to happen and starting today with a Nyquist victory in the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby.

Mark Hoffman's 2016 graded Kentucky Derby selections

Nyquist (#13) Gutierrez / O'Neill (3-1)

This son of Uncle Mo comes from the connections who won the 2012 edition of this race, undefeated in his seven career starts, he will be trying to become the first undefeated horse to win the Run for the Roses since Big Brown in 2008, this two year old Juvenile champion is the horse to beat and his credentials are just as good as American Pharoah's one year ago.

Suddenbreakingnews (#2) Quinonez / Von Hemel (20-1)

This dead come from the clouds closer rallied in his three starts this year at Oaklawn Park for today's start and his connections are relative new to the Triple Crown trail, he will benefit from a hot pace up front and can land a piece at big odds, the double digit longshot you need to fill out your exotic plays!

Exaggerator (#11) KJ Desormeaux / JK Desormeaux (8-1)

This hard hitting son of Curlin had a breakout victory in the Santa Anita Derby by winning over six lengths on a sloppy sealed racing surface, the most visually impressive prep race victories, he'll try to turn the tables on my top selection who he's yet to beat when they faced each other, a must use in your exotic plays .

Gun Runner (#5) Geroux / Asmussen (10-1)

Top Derby point winner this year, he won both his starts at the Fairgrounds as prep races for today, winner over the track also, he may be overlooked in the wagering and offers solid value in this race, would be no surprise winning here!

My Man Sam (#6) I. Ortiz / Brown (20-1)

Lightly raced runner is getting better in each start, his come from behind running style mirrors my second choice, look for him to continue to improve and be running late, lots upside with this runner.

Shagaf (#16) Rosario / Pletcher (20-1)

Came up a clunker in his final prep race the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on muddy sealed track, may have not liked the that racing surface and I'm willing to forgive that effort, will be a square price today.

Outwork (#15) Velazquez / Pletcher (15-1)

Nearly went wire to wire on the Aqueduct sloppy sealed surface in the Wood Memorial, draws favorable outside post and with his speed could be dangerous, may be the "wise guy" horse today!

Mohaymen (#14) Alvarado / McLaughlin (10-1)

The main competition to my top selection early on the Kentucky Derby trail with an undefeated record until his last start, didn't fire in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream on a good race track, willing to forget that effort..... but must move forward!

Brody's Cause (#19) Saez / Romans (12-1)

Returned to the winner's circle in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland in his last start, his grinder running style bodes well in the Kentucky Derby, would be no surprise to get a piece here, he never seems to take money in his starts..... nor will he today.

Destin (#9) Castellano / Pletcher (15-1)

Winner of both races at Tampa Bay Downs this prep season, this son of Giant's Causeway has fallen under the radar because of the gap between his last race and today, that's a lot to overcome, but has drawn a favorable post..... your call.

Creator (#3) Santana / Asmussen (10-1)

Finally put it together in his last start, the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park rallying late for victory, took six starts to break his maiden and may be rounding to form, tough to gauge with only two victories in eight career starts, mixed signals.

Mor Spirit (#17) Stevens / Baffert (12-1)

Second best in last two prep races in California, failed to move forward..... but is consistent, his post has never won the Kentucky Derby, not using this one in any of my plays.

Whitmore (#10) Espinoza / Moquett (20-1)

Raced evenly in all three starts at Oaklawn Park, another who has failed to move forward along the Derby prep trail, no hat-track for jockey Victor Espinoza today!

Mo Tom (#4) Lanerie / Amoss (20-1)

Trouble plague runner got into the field late and has had an world of excuses both on track and by his trainer, can't see this one being a real threat off his prep races, leaving this one off all my tickets.

Danzing Candy (#20) Smith / Sise (15-1)

The wire to wire winner of the San Felipe Stakes, he wilted on the off-track in Santa Anita Stakes last, draws the far outside and may be the main speed, question whether he wants to go this far, toss.

Tom's Ready (#12) Hernandez / Stewart (30-1)

Second best at a huge price behind Gun Runner in the Louisiana Derby, with only a maiden victory in nine career starts, this one seems very up against it versus this grade I field.

Majesto (#18) Jaramillo / Delgado (30-1)

Much like Tom's Ready above, this runner was second behind Nyquist in the Florida Derby at a price coming off his maiden breaker, the connections here are also new to the Kentucky Derby scene, can't see him improving enough to be a factor.

Trojan Nation (#1) Gryder / Gallagher (50-1)

This runner who is bred to run all day has yet to break his maiden, the first runner entered to the Derby like this since Nationalore in 1993, came up the rail to photo for 2nd in the Wood Memorial, drawing the rail doesn't help his chances either, toss!

Lani (#8) Take / Matsunaga (30-1)

This Kentucky bred, Japanese based runner won in the desert the UAE Derby to gain entry to this race, the son of Tapit can be a head case on the track, can't see him having any shot with his antics.

Oscar Nominated (#7) Leparoux / Maker (50-1)

Winner of the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park on polytrack to get points for this race, originally not nominated to this race and was supplemented, a Ramsey runner with NO CHANCE here!


Also eligible : Laoban (#21) & Cherry Wine (#22) ~ if horses scratch