Calvin Borel......the jock for the race!

With the Kentucky Derby one week away, it took until just a few days ago for one of the leading Kentucky Derby heroes from the past five years to get a mount for the big race. In less than five years, this jockey has graced the winner’s circle under the twin spheres three times. He won with a two year old champion in 2007 (Street Sense) something that hadn’t been done in over 25 years. He came back two years later with an impossible longshot that shock the racing world (Mine That Bird). Last he benefited from a sloppy track and had one of the best trainers in racing to win his third blanket of roses (Super Saver). He is now a household name and one of the finalists for the Thoroughbred Racing Hall of Fame. His name is; Calvin Borel and his Kentucky Derby lore make him one of the top jockeys in the sport. The question I ask is; is Calvin that good of a jockey or just very lucky in the sports biggest race?

Calvin has been a fixture in thoroughbred racing for years and won his share of stake races. But, his national success has come on the “big” stage. There’s no taking away from that success in what some say as the biggest event in thoroughbred racing. These three Kentucky Derby victories do a lot for public attention. But, in the grand body of work; is Calvin Borel just an average jockey and is he really worthy to be finalists for the Hall of Fame? When Calvin has been to Saratoga is recent years since his Derby success, he’s been little more than an average jockey. The year he won his first Kentucky Derby , he rode at Saratoga and had the mount on our own stables; Sumwonlovesyou. Now grant it, she wasn’t a stakes caliber horse. But, his ride on her wasn’t a “stakes” caliber trip either. He struggled at the Spa with his mounts and even though he’s been the “King of the Derby ” in recent years, he’s little more than an average jockey outside that race.

With the voting system that the National Museum of Thoroughbred Racing has, when you see the name; Calvin Borel on the ballot first time, will the voters chose him off his “body of work” or his three Kentucky Derby victories in four years? I see Calvin as a Peyton Manning in reverse. What I mean by this is, with Manning; he was a superior regular season quarterback with great numbers. But, during playoff time, Peyton only garnered one Super Bowl victory. In Calvin’s case, he has had a journeyman like career as a jockey outside the Kentucky Derby . Nothing really spectacular in number of victories, but when the spotlight is on in the “biggest race”, Calvin shines brightly.

This year, he’ll be on another “Mine That Bird” like runner. Twice the Appeal broke his maiden in a 30k claimer and now is entered into the Kentucky Derby . On paper, this horse should be between 30-1 and 50-1. But, now with Calvin aboard and his Kentucky Derby success rate, Twice the Appeal will be around 20-1 or less. A bad bet in my opinion; but then again, Mine That Bird wasn’t than appealing either and he won at longshot odds. It’s likely that if Calvin wins his four Kentucky Derby this year, he’ll be a “shoe in” for the Hall of Fame first time on the ballot. But, there are other jockeys with a better “full resume” of work more deserving that Calvin this year. I’m not knocking Calvin Borel, but if you take away his three Kentucky Derby victories. Everybody would be saying; Calvin “who”? Big race jockey, run of the mill the rest of the time. Calvin may have to wait his turn to be enshrined.

RUN FOR THE ROSES '11 - It's NOT like your dad's Kentucky Derby

Usually the final two weeks of major Kentucky Derby prep races solidify the top contenders for the big race the first Saturday in May. Occasionally a new face or longshot may pop up in one of the races. But, rarely after the Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby , Bluegrass Stakes or Arkansas Derby does the Kentucky Derby picture get more muddled. This year is the year where the current form of the major contenders and favorites got turned upside down. The trends of the past few years along the Kentucky Derby prep trail may have been a major part of this. The year’s biggest race has turned into the non-winners of two “crap shoot”possibly.

It was injury that knocked out both Premier Pegasus and Jaycito out of the Santa Anita Derby . A well known trainer; Bob Baffert emerged with a new face longshot in Midnight Interlude. The mighty Uncle Mo , went down in flames as one of the biggest upsets in Kentucky Derby prep race history. But, the one/two finishers of the Wood Memorial (Toby’s Corner & Arthur’s Tale) did figure though for a $158 exacta. The Bluegrass Stakes has been an after thought in recent years and especially now that it’s run on the polytrack surface. Again this year, it was “longshot” city with Brilliant Speed (19-1) and Twinspired (24-1) for $655 exacta, $6,000 triple and $129,000 superfecta. And the Arkansas Derby that was to showcase the “speedy” The Factor, had become another victim to a price horse in Archarcharch (25-1). Throw in one of Todd Pletcher’s “third” stringers in the Illinois Derby (Joe Vann) and we have the biggest overall prep race mess for the favorites in years!

Is this outcome from the Kentucky Derby prep races a result of lack of trainers pushing their horses as two year olds with limited races this year? Or is the crop of three year olds much like what we’ve seen the past few years with a rather weak group? Or even more, have we overestimated the talent of horses like; Uncle Mo and The Factor? It could be a little of each of these things.

Uncle Mo is a good horse, his races as a two year old were outstanding and nobody in the group so far has matched his talent. But, the road he took this year as a three year old raised “white flags” and the result was the third place finish in the Wood Memorial. Now with an excuse because he suffered an intestinal sickness after the race, the question whether he’ll be anywhere near 100% in two weeks may keep him out of the race. The Factor wasn’t thought of as a “derby contender” early in the season. But when he stretched out in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park and won much the best, the Derby “fever” caught hold. But, his ride in the Arkansas Derby wasn’t the best of trips and trying to “rate” him off the front end was a complete disaster. It looks like now; he may not run at all also.

Only Dialed In, trained by Nick Zito has weathered this storm. He and Toby’s Corner (along with the The Factor) are the only three year olds to win two prep races along the Derby Trail. Comma to the Top has been consistent as they come, but has yet to win a race on a “natural” dirt track. Look’s like he’ll have distance limitations too. Soldat, Stay Thirsty and Santiva were solid contenders, but now have shown “chinks” in their armor too and their last starts. Toby’s Corner, Macho Mucho Man, Archarcharch and Pants on Fire are solid runners who may play a role off their recent victories. Maybe it will be the “new” faces like Midnight Interlude, Nehro or Master of Hounds that could upset the apple cart at big odds. But with what has happened this year leading up to the first Saturday in May, the grade I – Kentucky Derby may be no different than a run-of-the-mill; non-winners of two allowance race. Today’s Kentucky Derby isn’t your dad’s Kentucky Derby !

Will THE FACTOR, be one or another disppointment?

The results of last weekend's two major Kentucky Derby prep races usually bode well for horses that are key contenders for the first Saturday in May. But this year with the stunning defeat of Uncle Mo in the Wood Memorial and the defection of the two favorites in the Santa Anita Derby (Premier Pegasus and Jaycito), the role of favoritism for the "Run for the Roses" is now wide open. It's beginning to look like the role of "super horse" by Uncle Mo has revealed chinks in his armor.

Undefeated going into the grade I stake race in New York , it looked like he would have his way versus this group of runners he faced. But, the racing gods of upset prevailed again and his third place finish may now have an excuse. Numerous blood test were taken earlier this week and a gastrointestinal tract infection was found which may impact his chances in running at Churchill Downs . At this point, he'll continue to train and ship to Kentucky on April 18th. A week ago, he was the "horse to beat" and now may not make the race. Funny how things change overnight in the sport of thoroughbred racing.

Things became more complicated also on the west coast when the two leading contenders for the race were early post time scratches. This left the door wide open and it was Bob Baffert who took advantage of it. His recent maiden breaker; Midnight Interlude was the upset winner and this outcome was a similar result with no clear cut west coast leading contender. We thought that the two winners from last weekend's prep races would join Dialed In as top contenders the first Saturday in May. As of now, Nick Zito's runner is STILL the leader of the group. Today, we have two more major prep races at Oaklawn Park and Keeneland. There may be one runner though that may come to the forefront if he runs the same race as he did in his last start.

There are 13 runners entered in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park this afternoon, but one is "head and shoulders" above the rest. The Factor (#3), who is also trained by Bob Baffert is the morning line favorite and quite speedy. After winning two straight sprinting at Santa Anita Park, he shipped to Oaklawn and stretched out in the Rebel Stakes last time out. There he was a "wire to wire" winner and his comment line was "unopposed; accelerated". If he runs the same race today going a mile and an eighth, he just may supplant Dialed In as the early Kentucky Derby favorite. Two of his main opponents are drawn just inside of him in the starting gate. Nehro (#1) and Elite Alex (#2) both were running late most recently in the Louisiana Derby . They may have the best shot with their running style behind the front running speed of The Factor. I see the race between these three horses (#1-2-3) and throw in longshot and newly trained Nick Zito runner; Truman's Commander (#7) and you might some decent bucks in this very good betting race.

The Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland is contended on a synthetic racing surface. Twelve runners are entered here in this wide open event. But since this stake has had a change of surface the past few years, the winners have had little bearing on the Kentucky Derby . In fact, you have to go back 20 years for the last winner of this race to win the Derby (Strike the Gold - 1991). Nevertheless, there should be a runner or two coming out of this race and heading to Louisville in a few weeks. I'll chose a few longshots in this race with my top selection; Crimson China (#11). In his last start, he closed late in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park as the favorite. Today, he stretches out a little more and at 10-1 morning line is a nice price. The two Canadian based horses I'll also use and both are trained by Todd Pletcher. Sensational Slam (#6) and Queen'splatekitten (#12) have the experience on polytrack and both sport good morning line prices (10 & 12-1). Throw in the morning favorite; Santiva (#3) and there is your "possible" superfecta box!

Uncle Mo and the other assorted cast of characters

Less than a month away is the first Saturday in May and with the results of last Sunday's Florida Derby , the Nick Zito trained; Dialed In has stamped his ticket to Churchill Downs with his nose on the wire victory in that race. He caught 69-1 longshot Shackleford who nearly stole the race on the front end. Now, Nick Zito who has won back-to-back Florida Derbies will most likely have the 2nd choice in the Kentucky Derby wagering in a few weeks. Today we have three more prep races today and two others next week. This week is the coast to coast battle with Uncle Mo in the Wood Memorial and what was to be Premier Pegasus in the Santa Anita Derby . But on Thursday afternoon, it was announced that Premier Pegasus suffered a hairline fracture of his cannon bone and will miss today's race. That leaves an wide open field and with the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne Park added in for good measure, we will sending a few more runners along with Dialed In to the "big" race.

The leading contender for favoritism the first Saturday in May is racing at Aqueduct in the Wood Memorial and his name is Uncle Mo. We all know his story; undefeated, the media darling of NYRA and the best three year old to come along since Eskendereya. Today he faces nine foes with the morning line odds of 1-5. I was really surprised that NYRA stakes coordinator got that many runners to face him, so what was thought to be a unbetable race has now worth another look. It's looks like there are only three runners to use with Uncle Mo (#5) in the wagering; Arthur's Tale (#4) , Duca (#7) and Toby's Corner (#2). For Uncle Mo , this may be just another "public workout" and SHOULD handle this group. But to be on the safe side, I'd mix the three runners I stated with Uncle Mo and not just "single" him.

There are ten runners also in the Santa Anita Derby after the withdrawal of the morning line favorite; Premier Pegasus. This field though is a little more evenly matched. It comes down to three contenders which all should be around the same odds. Silver Medallion (#4) , Anthony's Cross (#9) and Jaycito (#11) are the ones who will battle for favoritism in my opinion. My main interest is in Silver Medallion who has won at the mile and an eighth distance, but on a synthetic track at Golden Gate Fields last time out. The "wildcard" here is Midnight Interlude (#6) who broke his maiden for Bob Baffert last time out. Like in the Wood Memorial, mix it up and I'll be playing a 4-6-9-11 superfecta box.

A even dozen will be racing at Hawthorne Park in the grade III - Illinois Derby . This group looks like the 2nd stringers for the Derby , but a good betting race which includes four maiden runners! The most notable runner is the 43-1 longshot winner of the Tampa Bay Derby ; Watch Me Go (#4). I'll try to beat him with Al Stall trainee; Sour (#6) who looks like he has the best up side. Along with these two runners, I'll include; the speedy The Fed Eased (#7) shipping in from New York and another Todd Plecther runner; Joe Vann (#3). Not a lot of pricy horse here, but the field as a whole lacks graded stakes quality. It's my opinion that this edition of the Illinois Derby WON'T be entertaining any Kentucky Derby runners. But, then again if Uncle Mo stumbles.......who knows!

Never on a Sunday???? Not anymore! - Florida Derby day

As I was looking over the racing entries for Saturday's Gulfstream Park card on Wednesday evening, I started to get confused because I could not find a certain race. I knew that the grade I - Florida Derby was scheduled to be contested this weekend, but nowhere on Saturday's Gulfstream entries could I find the race. Since I've been playing the races, this race was the standout feature of the Gulfstream Park season and although the race has changed dates when it was contested, it was always run on the Saturday card. But, this year the Gulfstream Park racing office threw us a "curve ball" and placed this year's event on Sunday. With the ever changing Florida thoroughbred racing schedule, this can be a confusing thing for both player and horseman.

The biggest racing day in south Florida has five stakes races on the card which is topped off by the major prep race for three year old colts that are pointing for the Kentucky Derby . Also on this card is a sprint race for the three year olds also named for the 1984 Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner, the Swale Stakes contested at seven furlongs. Six horses are assembled here with one runner missing for a bigger date later on in the card. Flashpoint winner of the Hutcheson Stakes wire to wire, would have been the odds-on favorite here in this sprint. But the Rick Dutrow trainee decided to stretch out in the Florida Derby , a much tougher spot than here. This leaves the door wide open for the Todd Pletcher trainee; Travelin' Man (#6) who was the runner-up last out versus Flashpoint. For 2nd, I'm going with the "eased last race" angle and picking Black N' Beauty (#1) won had all kinds of trouble last time out after turning back from a route distance.

The 6th race - going six and a half furlongs, the Sir Shackleton Stakes has a neat field of familiar names entered. Layoffs and turnbacks rule this race with my top pick; Capt. Candyman Can (#8). After a 15 month layoff, he returned to his winning ways in a seven furlong race at Tampa Bay Downs , just getting up in time. I'm also choosing a old favorite for 2nd in Regal Ransom (#3) who returns to a sprint after facing graded stakes competition going route distances the past few years.

Turf runners race a flat mile in race #8 - the Emirates Airlines Appleton Handicap. In this wide open event, my top selection is the rail horse; Little Man (#1) winner of the Canadian Turf Handicap last out. For 2nd, I'll be using the turnback from the west coast and now under the training of Kiaran McLaughlin; Riviera Cocktail (#6). Older handicap runners are next up in the 9th race - the Skip Away Stakes. Last year's Belmont Stakes winner; Drosselmeyer (#1) gets the call here in his second start off the layoff. Nick Zito has an interesting runner I'm placing for 2nd in S.S. Stone who steps up in class and seeks his third straight victory.

Now we're up to the aforementioned, Florida Derby . Here eight runners are assembled; the speedy Flashpoint (#8), the Fountain of Youth winner and also speedy Soldat (#1) and To Honor and Serve (#2) making his second start off a layoff are just a few of the notable names here. These three runners I'll be using underneath my top two selections; Dialed In (#7) impressive winner of the Holy Bull Stakes and recent Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct; Stay Thirsty (#6). The winner of this race will punch his ticket to Louisville for the "first Saturday in May" and be the "top dog"coming from the Florida route for the Kentucky Derby.