Dubai World Cup 2012 selections

After three months of usual winter weather, we have turned the corner to spring and the "official" first BIG weekend of thoroughbred racing. It gets a early start this morning with eight races across the sea from the desert sands of Dubai and it's presentation of the World Cup card. Later on this afternoon at Gulfstream Park , the biggest three year old prep race in Florida will be run in the Florida Derby , featuring division leader; Union Rags and tomorrow; the best from the Cajun state run at the Fairgrounds in the Louisiana Derby in a wide open field. More on the results of those two races next week. But today, we look thoroughbred racing's richest card. Top quality racing is now in full force, around the world!


As I said, things start early at 9:10am with the Godolphin Mile. Fourteen runners are entered and my selections for this race are : African Story (#4) & Western Aristocrat (#8) a stakes winner at Belmont Park on the grass last fall. My exotic horses underneath my top two picks are: Do It All (#11) Snaafy (#12) & Red Jazz (9th). The Dubai Gold Cup is at the marathon distance of 2 miles on the grass. Opinion Poll (#10) and Fox Hunt (#11) ran one / two in their mile and three quarter prep race for this event. I'll take these two in my exacta with Kasbah Bliss (#13) Barbican (#2) & Zanzamar (#12) underneath.


The UAE Derby is for three year olds and South American bred four year old runners going a mile and three sixteenths. I'm going from the rail with the American runner; Lucky Chappy (#1) who was last seen running 2nd behind Daddy Nose Best in the El Camino Real Derby and who won the Borderland Derby at Sunland Park this past weekend. For second, I'll be using Canadian invader; Maritimer (#3) a two year old stakes winner at Woodbine last Fall. Wrote (#13) won the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf, Falls of Lorna (#10) won the UAE Oaks last time out at this distance and with Kinglet (#9) are the choices to use underneath my two top picks. A turf sprint is up next in the Al Qouz at five furlongs. In the most wide open race on the World Cup card, my top pick is a 20-1 morning line favorite. Addictive Dream (#2) who won two races turf sprinting in January before his last start on the polytrack track here. The price is right with lukewarm morning line favorite (4-1) Joy and Fun (#6) in my runner-up position. My superfecta add in's are: Nocturnal Affair (#5) Regally Ready (#3) & August Rush (#8).


We continue sprinting, but back on the main track and going six furlongs in the Golden Shaheen Stakes. The Factor (#7) is my speedy top pick here with a definite class edge versus this group. Krypton Factor (#5) has been razor sharp in three starts here and contains valve at 10-1. Underneath these two, are: Rocket Man (#1) Giant Ryan (#3) & Hitchens (#6). The Dubai Duty Free is one of the two big turf races on the World Cup card and at the shorter distance of a mile and an eighth. Await the Dawn (#2) was my second choice this past Fall in the Breeder's Cup Turf, he showed speed going longer that day and comes off that race for today's effort. Ambitious Dragon (#4) has raced 13 times first or second in 17 lifetime starts coming in from Hong Kong . Underneath these two will be : Musir (#5) Dark Shadow (#7) & City Style (#13).


The five million dollar Dubai Sheema Classic is one of the richest turf races in the world. Songcraft (#1) faced stakes competition for the first time in last start and finished third, previously was undefeated and gets the call here at the 8-1 morning line. Runner-up for me is the Breeder's Cup Turf winner; St. Nicholas Abbey (#9) who upset in that race at 6-1 and may need a race off that effort. Treasure Beach (#6) and the undefeated; Beaten Up (#3) round out my exotic plays here.


The Dubai World Cup is the crown jewel of today's recorded breaking events. The 17th edition of this race has become a world event and will be contested for a second straight year at Meydan Racecourse which has a synthetic polytrack surface. In this field of 14, the American runners get the edge. But, the morning line favorite; Game on Dude (#14) has to negotiate the far outside post, so he'll be my 2nd choice. For the top spot, I'm going with the American filly; Royal Delta (#7) who faces the colts for the first time and tries the polytrack for only a second time. She has a bullet work for today's race and is 8-1 on the morning line. Underneath these two classy American's I'll use : Smart Falcon (#5) , last year's runner-up Transend (#10) and local winner; Capponi (#11).

Organization's response to alarmling situation in New York

We had been very fortunate this past winter, here in the great northeast. For those who do not ski or snowmobile, this was a great winter. The same result was also, downstate in the New York area. With year round winter racing by NYRA, the elements have a big effect on the daily racing cards that are raced on their "Inner-track". Since the beginning of the meet in December, there has been a big rise in the number of thoroughbred breakdowns and at a alarming rate. As I write this column, there have been nearly 20 horses that had to be "put down" or euthanized. This is over a 50% increase from the pervious two winter meets. This statistic has gotten the attention of not only race officials, but the office of the governor of New York State.

On Thursday, the New York State Racing and Wagering board announce they were setting up a task force to look into these recent events on the racetrack and the cause that could be creating it. Governor Andrew Cuomo name a team of prominent horse people to investigate, discuss and go over the possible reasons for this trend. Named to the board was; Jerry Bailey, Hall of Fame jockey; Alan Forman, Chairman and CEO of Thoroughbred Horseman's Association; Dr. Scott E. Palmer, Hospital director and staff surgeon at the New Jersey Equine Clinic and Dr. Mary Scollay, medical director for the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission.

The team will evaluate and exam the physical condition of Aqueduct's Inner-Track. Some are claiming the lack of water and moisture during this year's winter months has made the racing surface very hard and unkind to the thoroughbreds traveling over it. What is considered a "safe" racing surface for decades during the winter in New York , has come into scrutiny with the 20 breakdowns and drawn attention of many, both in the industry and outside of it. Also, the four member panel will look at ; the pre-race examination of thoroughbreds, veterinary procedures, the claiming of horses, Equine drug use, Necropsies (Post-Mortem Exams) and public disclosures.

This group's goal is to look over all these conditions and come up with a report to bring light the recent events this winter. The safety and well being of both horses and humans is paramount and the panel will bring forth ideas on improving the overall well being of racing in New York , especially during the winter months. A full report will be presented by the panel and made available to the public with it's findings.

In recent years, there has been a great push for synthetic races throughout the country. In California , two of their three major tracks are of that surface. Turfway Park and Woodbine in Canada are because of the colder weather climate and racing in the fall and winter months. Also, Keeneland in Kentucky and Presque Isle Downs have a polytrack surface. You could say that, the Aqueduct Inner-Track was the forerunner of the synthetic tracks when opened in the mid 70's. But, even this heated-winter track can have problems without adequate water on and in it's make up. With the low horse population and fragile thoroughbreds of today, the year round racing in New York could also come into question. Racing purses in New York have also increase since the opening of Aqueduct's racino next door. So, there are less horses, bigger purses and unusual weather all playing a factor this winter. Hopefully, some questions to these breakdowns will be answered by this blue ribbon panel. The future of winter racing in New York may rely on it.

Major changes at Capital OTB ....... for the "bettor"

There's been a lot of significant changes at Capital Off Track Betting since last Fall and my last column. The greatest change came at their biggest venue; the Tele-Theatre on Central Ave. just outside of downtown Albany . The original wagering facility that opened nearly 30 years ago in a old department store building was the flagship parlor for OTB in fine dining and racetrack atmosphere. But like everything through the years, time had caught up with the aging building and it was time for a new, modern day layout which meant a new "race book" type of feel.

So, construction began last Fall for the new facility and it was modeled after a very popular and successful "race book" in New Jersey; the Woodridge OTB parlor. It combined, the tele-theatre of the past with a new modern and more efficient type design. On, January 10th was the official grand opening of the Clubhouse Race Book with a ribbon cutting that I attended with local dignitaries. It ushered in a new era at Capital OTB. What I saw was quite impressive; 240 flat screen TVs , two giant projector screens; 7' by 12' for sports events for our casual sports fans. A new sports bar named 711 Sports Grill, 50-Foot bar with flat screen TVs which will provide patrons with comfortable and exciting environment. 140 individual carrels, similar to a sports or race book at a Vegas Casino where you can have comfort and your own television when wagering on horseracing. The "carrels" face a wall of more than 20 large flat screen TVs that will be displaying tracks from around the country. More than 35 self service and live operator betting terminals, all of them are the newest and most state-of-the-art terminals available. The Winners Circle from the old theatre remains offering "high-end" clubhouse racing experience with nice tables and leather chairs, flat screen TVs and all the enmities from the old building. The " Winners Circle " also has a large window that can be opened or closed for private events and meetings.

Since the Clubhouse Race Book has opened, many events have taken place. Super Bowl Sunday was the first "big" weekend there as well as many handicapping contests that Capital OTB is presenting this calendar year. The new Capital OTB handicapping series is broken into four quarters every three months. The handicapping series includes four levels of contests: free weekly online contests, regular monthly live contests, quarterly semi-final live contests and an annual live championship event. The winner of each of the free weekly online contests receives as part of their prize; a free entry into the next regular monthly live contest. Live contests will be held the first Saturday of each month with the exception of the May and November contests. The last live monthly event in each quarter is considered a “quarterly semi-final,” with a higher entry fee and larger prizes than the two regular monthly contests in the quarter. The top two finishers in each of the regular monthly contests receive as part of their prize; free entries into the next quarterly semi-final contest, with the exception of the November monthly contest because it is a team event rather than an individual contest and annual Handicapping Championship, which will be a stop on the NHC Tour on the first Saturday in December.

Along with this year long contest, I participated last Sunday in a new Capital OTB on-line contest called; the Sunday Syndicate. With a entry fee of between $10 and $25, you handicapping the Aqueduct card and selected your top 3 picks. With a limit of 50 players, there was a consensus selections wagered in win, exacta and daily double plays for the nine races. Our "syndicate" had $1,440 to wager with and after the day's results, had $1,212 remaining to split among the 50 players. It was a "chalky" day with the results, but we showed a little profit and overall was a fun day of wagering as a group.

I ve always spoke highly of Capital OTB throughout the years and with the new Clubhouse Race Book and thoroughbred handicapping racing contests during the year, Capital OTB is STILL the best for your wagering dollar!

The 2012 Kentucky Derby hopefuls.....my first look!

Well, I'm so glad to be "back in the saddle" and looking forward to the 2012 racing season with my weekly column. We start out with a look at the Kentucky Derby contenders at this point. The Juvenile, two year old season ended with the "great white hope" Hansen holding off the very talented Union Rags in the Breeder's Cup. The "best" horse that day (in my opinion) was Union Rags with the very wide trip he had under Javier Castellano. Both horse are on this year's Derby Trail and both look like they could possibly be the "two horses to beat" the first Saturday in May.

Union Rags return as a three year old was spectacular in every way. His Fountain of Youth Stakes victory at Gulfstream Park was quite impressive, he looked much bigger than he was last year and the wide, not asked "move" he made on the turn into the stretch really stamped him as the "horse to beat" for the Kentucky Derby at this time. Next up for this son of Dixie Union is the Florida Derby and by all accounts and mine, he is the top three year old horse at this moment.

Hansen, the nearly white son of Tapit made his second start of 2012 in the Gotham Stakes last Saturday at Aqueduct. In his three year debut at Gulfstream in the Holy Bull Stakes, he tired on the slop surface to Algorithms (who since has been injured and off the Derby trail) and was a well beaten second. He shipped up to New York and dominated a suspect field on the Inner-track. He's back in the picture and is second best behind the horse he beat at Churchill Downs last Fall. But, he's STILL got to prove that he can get the Kentucky Derby distance. The Wood Memorial at Aqueduct is his next start.

El Padrino ranks as the 3rd best three year old at this point and comes from the "loaded" Todd Pletcher barn. He has raced at five different tracks in his short career and is the recent winner of the Risen Star Stakes at Fairgrounds. It was a gutsy, grinding effort and may either next start in the Louisiana Derby or Florida Derby .

Here are the remainder of my top three year olds that have made an impact so far on the Kentucky Derby trail, in no particular order;

Alpha, trained by Kiaran McLaughlin - he has been the darling of the Aqueduct Inner-track (until Hansen last weekend) he'll really get the "acid" test in his next start which will be either the Wood Memorial or Florida Derby.

Fed Biz, trained by Bob Baffert is one of the top west coast three year olds. But, he decided to skip this weekend's San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita and race instead at Sunland Park in their Derby at the end of the month. He is one of my favorites on the Derby trail right now.

Another Baffert runner is Secret Circle, who was a recent winner of the Southwest Stakes (2nd division and faster run one) at Oaklawn Park . While there are still questions whether he wants or can get the Kentucky Derby distance, he was a Breeder's Cup winner at two and graded stakes winner at three.

Creative Cause, ran well as a two year old last year and got the perfect prep return last time out in the San Vicente at Santa Anita sprinting seven furlongs. He'll be racing this weekend in the San Felipe Stakes stretching out and looks to continue moving forward toward Kentucky .

Take Charge Indy, is a longshot I like and races in this weekend's Tampa Bay Derby . He was second best behind El Padrino at Gulfstream in January and returns to stakes action today. The oddly named;

Mark Valeski was very game in defeat last time out versus El Padrino in the Risen Star Stakes. That was his first time going a route distance and the question will be whether he wants to go 10 furlongs.

The Bob Baffert recent maiden breaker rounds out the 10 best three year olds; Bodemeister. Named after his son (who was named after downhill skier; Bode Miller) meets the "big time" today in the San Felipe. Something tells me that of ALL the Baffert runners, he'll be the best one at year's end.

Others to keep in mind the next few weeks; Empire Way, I'll Have Another, Liaison, Battle Harded and Street Life, a favorite of mine who was impressive breaking his maiden at Aqueduct and could be a "runner" as the three year old races continue throughout the season.

AT THE POST column returns 3/10/12

Returns ready for the 2012 campaign off the winter layoff......