"Derby Fever" - when caught, could be infectious!

I've been told by people who know me that, I'm not afraid to state my opinion or speak my mind. It sometimes gets me in trouble. But tell them, it's just my opinion and that's all it is, take it for what it's worth. Whether it's politics or the sport I love; thoroughbred racing, everybody's got an opinion. As a public handicapper, I give my "opinion" every nine races or more. Sometimes I'm right and other times, I'm not. But when your passionate about a subject or thing, you'll make your point and often there will be people who disagree. This week, I have an opinion about a certain Kentucky Derby hopeful. This horse is very talented and can prove a lot this season. But the direction he is going, could be a wrong one and is the case of " Derby Fever" one of the most common infections this time of year.

The runner I'm talking about is Trinniberg, a three year old colt trained by Bisnath Parboo and most recently won the Bay Shore Stakes at Aqueduct and Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park both at the sprint distance of seven furlongs. He has started seven times in his career, all sprinting and has won three times with two second place finishes. In all his starts, but one, he has made the lead and flashes quick speed. He is a top sprinter this year and was possibly being pointed for the Preakness Stakes off his two stakes victories. But, his connections got the dreaded " Derby Fever" and now will be contesting the Kentucky Derby , one week from today. Good decision? well, this public handicapper thinks not and going to this race may hurt him and ruin his talent in the long run.

The Kentucky Derby is a mile and a quarter grueling race, that can make or break a young three year old runner. A speedy horse like this one, only knows one way to go and that is on the front end. From the chute, horses race down the Churchill Downs stretch the first time around in the derby. He'll be "winging" on the front end with his brilliant speed. I envision the Kentucky Derby of twenty six year's ago in 1986, when another very fast three year old; Groovy, blazed on the front end until the six furlong mark and then stopped. I remember seeing Groovy very quickly backing up and finishing dead last in the field of 16 that year. Groovy became a very good sprinter after that race, even though he wheeled back after that Derby effort in the Preakness and finished second to last after being used in the pace. The one BIG difference here with Trinniberg is, he has NEVER raced beyond seven furlongs. Where at least Groovy finished 3rd going two-turns at a mile & an eighth in the Wood Memorial before the Kentucky Derby .

Trinniberg's sire, Teuflesberg was a pretty good sprinter himself a few years back for trainer Jamie Sanders. He had a great foundation as a two year old in 2006 with 11 starts and as a three year old in 2007, when he raced beyond a mile. But ,was a well beaten 17th in the Kentucky Derby and returned sprinting after that effort. He also was bred for sprinting and this element is best suited for his off spring. The fact that Trinniberg hasn't tried beyond sprinting going into the Derby , disturbs me the most. Since he is so fast and the fractions for this race are usually very quick, will spell doom for him in my opinion. It doesn't make sense to take a very fast horse and put him in a spot where he is trying something for the first time versus 19 other horses. He may get the lead, but he'll have plenty of company doing it. He's an unknown factor stretching out, but this isn't the company or place to do it. It's a bad idea for his connections to put their nice three year old in this spot. Hopefully in doing this, it won't hurt him in the long run or ruin his career. We shall see.

Class of 2012 is much like the epic class of 2007

Last weekend was the final round of major prep races on the road to this year's Kentucky Derby . The "logical" horses were the top two finishers in both the Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby . The Dale Romans trained; Dullahan ran down the "white knight" Hansen near the finish after a unprepared start and stamped his ticket to Louisville . As the second choice in the betting, he has shown his best efforts of turf and synthetic surfaces. The race was not without some pre-race controversy, when the owner of Hansen wanted to dye the tail of his nearly white colt, a different color. This wasn't the first time that his connections wanted to do this. Needless to say, Hansen ran his usually front running effort, but seems to "hit the wall" going over the one mile distance.


At Oaklawn Park , trained Bob Baffert came loaded for bear with his two runners; Secret Circle and Bodemeister. In the end, the lightly raced Bodemeister had a "Curlin" like effort in winning as much the best. The son of Empire Maker earned enough graded stakes money to get a spot in this year's Kentucky Derby off this visually impressive victory. Meanwhile, Baffert's other runner; Secret Circle drifted out in the stretch and since has come up with an injury and is off the Derby trail. Nothing in the two races were a surprise and the group of three year old runners headed to this year's Kentucky Derby is very evenly matched.

Nearly half of this year's group has won important graded stake prep races along the Kentucky Derby trail. It reminds me of five year's ago in 2007 when a similar talented class make a memorable Triple Crown series. That year, the 9-2 favorite was Street Sense, who won the race. The horse this year that reminds me of him is Union Rags; who won the Fountain of Youth Stakes impressively and had a troubled trip in the Florida Derby . But, also had the good 2 year old foundation with solid winning efforts. The speedy runner-up in 2007 was Hard Spun and this year, Take Charge Indy enters a similar effort in the Florida Derby where he went gate to wire. The "now" horse five year's ago was Curlin who won the Arkansas Derby in the same impressive style. It's Bodemeister this year, but his style is loose on the lead, front running. The "bet" of the Todd Pletcher runners in 2007 was Scat Daddy who had good form heading into the first Saturday in May. This year; Creative Cause mirrors his same efforts on the west coast. Hopefully though, Creative Cause will have a better effort than Scat Daddy's 18th place finish as the 3rd betting choice. Any Given Saturday was a consistent runner leading up to the Derby that year and Alpha fits his billing this year. Looking at the closing type runner, Tiago came from the clouds and the Blue Grass winner this year; Dullahan has the same running style. Another "now" type horse that year was Nobiz Like Showbiz and was bet down in the Derby . Maybe the Todd Pletcher trainee, Gemologist could be a similar horse with a bright future. And last but not least, our speedy white knight; Hansen should be on the front end as far as he goes. But, will he be backing up much like Stormello did in the 2007 edition from his outside post. For his followers, hopefully not! The 2012 group has plenty in common with that nice class of 2007 and that group was the best in this decade. So, after several lackluster three year old groups, this year things could be looking up and really brightly!

The "great white hope" & dynamic Baffert duo in action this weekend

Last weekend, three more horses stamped their ticket to Louisville for this year's Kentucky Derby . The Todd Pletcher runner; Gemologist remained undefeated with a measured victory over Alpha in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. Off this victory, he'll most likely vie for favorism with Union Rags. Meanwhile on the west coast, I'll Have Another backed up his previous longshot victory with also a measure win over Creative Cause in the Santa Anita Derby . Finally, Done Talking won at a price in the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne Park . These horses join; Take Charge Indy ( Florida Derby ) , Daddy Nose Best (Sunland Derby) , Mark Valeski (2nd Louisiana Derby ) and Daddy Long Legs & Wrote (UAE Derby ) in the starting gate for the first Saturday in May. Today we have two more major preps with three weeks to go, featuring last year's Juvenile champion; Hansen and two very talented Bob Baffert runners.



The traditional prep race at Keeneland is the Blue Grass Stakes at a mile and an eighth on the polytrack surface. In recent years, this race hasn't been a big determining factor for the Run for the Roses. Being contested on a synthetic surface, most horses winning this race haven't been a factor returning to dirt at Churchill Downs . But this year, the race has brought a champion runner to Keeneland and a major contender for this year's Derby . Hansen, the gray phenomenon who recently won the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, is entered along with twelve others that include; longshot Louisiana Derby winner Hero of Order and the highly regarded turf / polytrack runner; Dullahan. Last week, I liked an improving horse entered in the Santa Anita Derby which scratched out of that spot for today's race. He's 30-1 on the morning line today and returns to polytrack for the first time since career debut. Holy Candy (#9) was my second selection in last week's Santa Anita Derby , he figured today was an easier spot and comes into the race with a good, consistent record. Another good, consistent runner is Prospective (#3) who has been one/two in his races this winter at Tampa Bay Downs . He's two for two on the polytrack surface at Woodbine last year and a grade III stake winner going a route distance. At 10-1 morning line odds, my runner-up pick with top selection make a "box-car" exotic pick! The 6-5 morning line favorite; Hansen (#4) is a must use in ALL gimmicks, but is a play against value wise with him trying the mile and a eighth distance the first time. Heavy Breathing (#1) and Midnight Crooner (#8) add in also in triples and superfectas.



The Arkansas Derby is the final prep race at Oaklawn Park on closing day. This year, this Derby prep route hasn't been very strong compared to recent years. But, trainer Bob Baffert has two very talented runners that are head and shoulders above the nine other runners. Secret Circle (#5) has won both Derby prep races here (Southwest & Rebel Stakes) and looks to stretch out his winning streak going a sixteenth of a mile more. Bodemeister (#11) ships in from Santa Anita off a sharp second versus Creative Cause last time out. He needs graded stakes earnings for the Derby , but draws the worst of post positions for today's race. Since these two "stick out" over the field, they'll be my top two picks. Underneath the Baffert duo, I'll be using; Isn't He Clever (#6) recent runner-up in the Sunland Derby and closers, Najjaar (#3) and Optimizer (#7).

AT THE POST 2012 Kenucky Derby Top 20 (as of one month out)

1) UNION RAGS (1) 4-1
2) CREATIVE CAUSE (7) 6-1
3) GEMOLOGIST (new) 6-1
4) HANSEN (2) 8-1
5) I'LL HAVE ANOTHER (12) 15-1
6) ALPHA (4) 15-1
7) TAKE CHARGE INDY (8) 15-1

8) SECRET CIRCLE (6) 20-1
9) MARK VALESKI (9) 20-1
10) BODEMEISTER (10) 20-1
11) DADDY NOSE BEST (new) 30-1
12) WENT THE DAY WELL (new) 30-1
13) DADDY LONG LEGS (new) 30-1
14) EL PADRINO (3) 30-1

15) DONE TALKING (new) 50-1
16) SABERCAT (new) 50-1
17) WROTE (new) 50-1
18) REVERON (new) 50-1
19) DULLAHAN (new) 50-1
20) HERO OF ORDER* (new) 50-1

Final Kentucky Derby preps 2012 - part I

We are one month away from Kentucky Derby 138, the first Saturday in May when the three year old runners get their chance to shine in the sun! Last weekend, the leader of this year's group; Union Rags had a very eventful trip as the odds-on favorite in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park . A inside trip and lack of running room late, cause this talented runner to finish a well beaten third. While some may say that this effort has taken some of the "shine" off his record to date, I believe he had no chance to run until deep stretch. By that time, the race was over and Take Charge Indy led the group, wire to wire. Speed was king at Gulfstream on Saturday and that benefited the winner. Come the "first Saturday in May" though, Union Rags should be and most likely, will be my top selection.


On Sunday, a full field was assembled at the Fairgrounds in the Louisiana Derby . A somewhat wide open event, expect for the entry of Mark Valeski and Mr. Bowling who were the favorites, there was no clear cut other runner. When there are races like this, sometimes the result can be puzzling. This was true when the 109-1 longest shot on the board; Hero of Order prevailed over the favorite entry. The winner, who is NOT Kentucky Derby nominated paid $220.80 to win. This result seems to dismiss the Fairgrounds group of three year old runners this year in my opinion. This week we have three more prep races as we get closer to see the twenty horses that will go to post in this year's Derby .


First race up comes from Aqueduct, the final NY prep race; the Wood Memorial with a field of eight runners. The undefeated Todd Pletcher runner; Gemologist (#6) ships up from Gulfstream Park coming off a seven length victory going a mile on a good racing surface. I'll try to beat this 8/5 morning line favorite with the very talented Chad Brown runner; Street Life (#5). He was a recent two-turn overnight stakes winner here closing for victory in a slow paced race. Making his third lifetime start, this son of Street Sense has a tremendous up side and needs this race for graded stakes earnings. For second, the locally based; Alpha (#1) has been rock solid this winter over the Aqueduct Inner-track. This will be his first start in two months and meets tougher foes today. The favorite; Gemologist (#6), Casual Trick (#2) & My Adonis (#3) will be my underneath horses.


The grade III - Illinois Derby at Hawthorne Park has a over flow field of 17 runners with only 14 eligible to go post ward. A talented two year old from last year, makes his second start of 2012. Currency Swap (#4) finished a distant 2nd behind Wood Memorial favorite; Gemologist last time out at Gulfstream Park . I think he'll be much tighter today and gets my top pick. For second, I'm going with a very big longshot; Fastestwhogetspaid (#9) at 30-1 on the morning line. Recent winner at 38-1 sprinting at Oaklawn in a overnight stake, he returns to his home base here where two victories over the Hawthorne strip. My underneath exotic runners are; Romancing the Gold (#1), Hakama (#2) & Our Entourage (#11).


We wrap things up with the final west coast prep at Santa Anita Park, the Santa Anita Derby . Ten runners are entered (with three trained by Bob Baffert) are head lined by the rail horse; Creative Cause (#1) recent winner of the San Felipe Stakes. He'll be my top pick off that race and may be one of the top three choices in the Kentucky Derby with a good effort today. My second choice, is Holy Candy (#3) coming off a recent maiden victory with three straight 2nd place finishes before that. I'll round out my exotics with; I'll Have Another (#4), Longview Drive (#5) & Midnight Transfer (#8).