We have a PATTERN forming here ...... and a good one!

I wanted to start my column off with a definition of a word that seems to be getting a lot of play recently in my world and the word is; pattern. Pattern, the definition in Merriam-Webster's dictionary is "regular and repeated way in which something happens or is done, something that happens in a regular and repeated way." We think of these actions when it comes to a regular and continuous result. Whether we consciously know we are doing them or it becomes second nature, a pattern forms when normal events return time and time again. In the world of thoroughbred racing, one pattern stands above all others, a horse in the spring winning three races in a row on the highest stage; the Triple Crown.

We saw just that less than a year ago when American Pharoah started his quest to make racing history by winning the Kentucky Derby. Many times before, three year old runners tried to duplicate a Derby victory with two more in the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. Some got the first two legs, but most failed the final one. That was until last year. When American Pharoah got the job done, visions of the last horses to sweep the Triple Crown appeared in my head. It had been many years, since 1978 when Affirmed battled Alydar in a classic for the ages, three race competition. Just one year before that, Seattle Slew did the hat trick as an undefeated three year old horse. And only a few years prior to that, the great Secretariat captured the world with his tour-de-force of the Triple Crown. From 1973 to 1978, there was a "pattern" forming in the thoroughbred world.

Now, we flash forward to the last three years along the Triple Crown trail. In 2013, the Shug McGaughey trained; Orb won the Kentucky as the lukewarm favorite. Although he failed in the next two races, the betting people found a quality runner to make favoritism in the toughest race of the year. But, the pattern grows more apparent the next two. A unheralded horse from California, found the right spot to get good at the right time. California Chrome in 2015 glided through the first two legs of the Triple Crown much the best and as the favorite in both races. While he came up a bit short in the Belmont Stakes that year, the pattern of three year old runners winning as the betting favorites was coming true. Of course last year, American Pharoah sealed the deal as the favorite to win all three races and the Triple Crown. Three horses, all favorites winning six of the nine Triple Crown races in a three year span. Not since the heyday's of Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed have we seen a simliair "pattern".

Now, we have a solid favorite for this year's edition of the Kentucky Derby in Nyquist, a undefeated three year old runner who patterns much like last year's winner and Triple Crown hero; American Pharoah in many ways. But, the main pattern here is that we will be trying to have the Kentucky Derby post time favorite, win the Run for the Roses for four straight years! This is something that hasn't been accomplished since 1975, when previous four Kentucky Derby winners were all favored at post time. This stat goes back even farther than American Pharoah breaking the Triple Crown jinx last year! And in my opinion, Nyquist will break that streak today and become the fourth straight Kentucky Derby post time favorite to win the blanket of roses. This is a real "pattern" that may lie for the future and just maybe Déjà vu, all over again on this year's Triple Crown trail. It would be nice to have that pattern we had in the mid seventies in thoroughbred racing. I believe it's going to happen and starting today with a Nyquist victory in the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby.

Mark Hoffman's 2016 graded Kentucky Derby selections

Nyquist (#13) Gutierrez / O'Neill (3-1)

This son of Uncle Mo comes from the connections who won the 2012 edition of this race, undefeated in his seven career starts, he will be trying to become the first undefeated horse to win the Run for the Roses since Big Brown in 2008, this two year old Juvenile champion is the horse to beat and his credentials are just as good as American Pharoah's one year ago.

Suddenbreakingnews (#2) Quinonez / Von Hemel (20-1)

This dead come from the clouds closer rallied in his three starts this year at Oaklawn Park for today's start and his connections are relative new to the Triple Crown trail, he will benefit from a hot pace up front and can land a piece at big odds, the double digit longshot you need to fill out your exotic plays!

Exaggerator (#11) KJ Desormeaux / JK Desormeaux (8-1)

This hard hitting son of Curlin had a breakout victory in the Santa Anita Derby by winning over six lengths on a sloppy sealed racing surface, the most visually impressive prep race victories, he'll try to turn the tables on my top selection who he's yet to beat when they faced each other, a must use in your exotic plays .

Gun Runner (#5) Geroux / Asmussen (10-1)

Top Derby point winner this year, he won both his starts at the Fairgrounds as prep races for today, winner over the track also, he may be overlooked in the wagering and offers solid value in this race, would be no surprise winning here!

My Man Sam (#6) I. Ortiz / Brown (20-1)

Lightly raced runner is getting better in each start, his come from behind running style mirrors my second choice, look for him to continue to improve and be running late, lots upside with this runner.

Shagaf (#16) Rosario / Pletcher (20-1)

Came up a clunker in his final prep race the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on muddy sealed track, may have not liked the that racing surface and I'm willing to forgive that effort, will be a square price today.

Outwork (#15) Velazquez / Pletcher (15-1)

Nearly went wire to wire on the Aqueduct sloppy sealed surface in the Wood Memorial, draws favorable outside post and with his speed could be dangerous, may be the "wise guy" horse today!

Mohaymen (#14) Alvarado / McLaughlin (10-1)

The main competition to my top selection early on the Kentucky Derby trail with an undefeated record until his last start, didn't fire in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream on a good race track, willing to forget that effort..... but must move forward!

Brody's Cause (#19) Saez / Romans (12-1)

Returned to the winner's circle in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland in his last start, his grinder running style bodes well in the Kentucky Derby, would be no surprise to get a piece here, he never seems to take money in his starts..... nor will he today.

Destin (#9) Castellano / Pletcher (15-1)

Winner of both races at Tampa Bay Downs this prep season, this son of Giant's Causeway has fallen under the radar because of the gap between his last race and today, that's a lot to overcome, but has drawn a favorable post..... your call.

Creator (#3) Santana / Asmussen (10-1)

Finally put it together in his last start, the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park rallying late for victory, took six starts to break his maiden and may be rounding to form, tough to gauge with only two victories in eight career starts, mixed signals.

Mor Spirit (#17) Stevens / Baffert (12-1)

Second best in last two prep races in California, failed to move forward..... but is consistent, his post has never won the Kentucky Derby, not using this one in any of my plays.

Whitmore (#10) Espinoza / Moquett (20-1)

Raced evenly in all three starts at Oaklawn Park, another who has failed to move forward along the Derby prep trail, no hat-track for jockey Victor Espinoza today!

Mo Tom (#4) Lanerie / Amoss (20-1)

Trouble plague runner got into the field late and has had an world of excuses both on track and by his trainer, can't see this one being a real threat off his prep races, leaving this one off all my tickets.

Danzing Candy (#20) Smith / Sise (15-1)

The wire to wire winner of the San Felipe Stakes, he wilted on the off-track in Santa Anita Stakes last, draws the far outside and may be the main speed, question whether he wants to go this far, toss.

Tom's Ready (#12) Hernandez / Stewart (30-1)

Second best at a huge price behind Gun Runner in the Louisiana Derby, with only a maiden victory in nine career starts, this one seems very up against it versus this grade I field.

Majesto (#18) Jaramillo / Delgado (30-1)

Much like Tom's Ready above, this runner was second behind Nyquist in the Florida Derby at a price coming off his maiden breaker, the connections here are also new to the Kentucky Derby scene, can't see him improving enough to be a factor.

Trojan Nation (#1) Gryder / Gallagher (50-1)

This runner who is bred to run all day has yet to break his maiden, the first runner entered to the Derby like this since Nationalore in 1993, came up the rail to photo for 2nd in the Wood Memorial, drawing the rail doesn't help his chances either, toss!

Lani (#8) Take / Matsunaga (30-1)

This Kentucky bred, Japanese based runner won in the desert the UAE Derby to gain entry to this race, the son of Tapit can be a head case on the track, can't see him having any shot with his antics.

Oscar Nominated (#7) Leparoux / Maker (50-1)

Winner of the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park on polytrack to get points for this race, originally not nominated to this race and was supplemented, a Ramsey runner with NO CHANCE here!


Also eligible : Laoban (#21) & Cherry Wine (#22) ~ if horses scratch

The 1st 2016 Kentucky Derby Dozen .......... 2 with 10 others!

Last week, we talked about the top two leaders on this year's Kentucky Derby trail; Mohaymen & Nyquist and their possible clash in the Florida Derby a little more than a month away. Now, I have compiled the first Derby dozen of 2016 with these two leading the way. To be honest, coming up with twelve horses nine weeks out of the First Saturday in May was a bit tough. No other runners than the top two scream out, Kentucky Derby winner. We have two prep races today, the Tampa Bay Derby and San Felipe Stakes. Nearly half of the dozen (five) will be racing today, hoping to make their mark and stay on the list.



The stronger of the two races (quality wise) is the San Felipe Stakes, a prep for the final west coast Derby race; the Santa Anita Derby. Going the mile and a sixteenth distance, three contenders on the list are going here. Bob Baffert's best prospect, Mo Spirit (ranked 3rd) meets Exaggerator (ranked 5th) who ran well as a two year old and goes for the Texas Red connections of last year; the Desormeaux brothers. Add the undefeated California bred; Smokey Image (ranked 12th) and we have the best from the left coast. The remaining four entered here all rate a chance coming off either winning or in the money finishes. I'm leaning toward the runner with the most overall experience making his second start off a layoff, Exaggerator (#7). Wide open event here.



Down in Florida, the Tampa Bay Derby is the better betting race. It has the Sam Davis prep winner; Destin (ranked 10th) who is trained by Todd Pletcher versus Brody's Cause (ranked 11th) who is making his seasonal debut in this race. This son of Giant's Causeway, trained by Dale Romans ran third in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile and may be the best runner to get the mile and a quarter distance the first Saturday in May. While the west coast prep has more well known names, the Tampa Bay Derby offers betting value. The two ranked runners I'll use underneath my top two selections; Riker (#6) & Rafting (#2). My top selection makes his three year old debut and under new trainer; Mark Casse. He made his dirt debut last year in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile where he set the pace and faded late. My second selection ran a good 2nd with a wide trip in the Sam Davis Stakes. A superfecta box of 2-6-7-8 and exacta of 2-6 are the play here.



As for the remainder of the dozen, Shagaf (ranked 6th) makes the dozen with a "workman" like victory in the Gotham Stakes last week and will be headed to the Wood Memorial next and Zulu (ranked 7th) punched his ticket to the Florida Derby, running second. Both Gun Runner (ranked 4th) & Greenpointcrusader (ranked 9th) are heading to the bayou in the Louisiana Derby at the end of the month and longshot winner of the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn, Suddenbreakingnews (ranked 8th) will next start in the Rebel Stakes. Here's the complete list of Hickory Hill Hoff's ~ AT THE POST 2016 Kentucky Derby dozen with my odds and next prep start. 1) Mohaymen (4-1) ~ Florida Derby. 2) Nyquist (6-1) ~ Florida Derby. 3) Mo Spirit ~ (10-1) San Felipe Stakes. 4) Gun Runner (12-1) ~ Louisiana Derby. 5) Exaggerator (12-1) ~ San Felipe. 6) Shagaf (15-1) ~ Wood Memorial. 7) Zulu (15-1) ~ Florida Derby. 8) Suddenbreakingnews (20-1) ~ Rebel Stakes. 9) Greenpointcrusader (20-1) ~ Louisiana Derby. 10) Destin (20-1) ~Tampa Bay Derby. 11) Brody's Cause (20-1) ~ Tampa Bay Derby. 12) Smokey Image (30-1) ~ San Felipe.

My 18th year in print, along the Triple Crown trail

The vacation is over, I'm back on track! After my usual three month sabbatical from the sport of kings during the winter months, I'm ready to start my eighteen year covering thoroughbred action for the Amsterdam Recorder. It's also marks the thirtieth year for myself following the sport I love so much. Well, the past three months went quickly. Our unconventional mild winter has been a welcomed plus for this fifty one year old body and also a quiet one on the wagering front. I also took a sabbatical from wagering expect for the sparse stakes races on the weekends. It has been also tough to wager on certain tracks which have runners with Triple Crown and Kentucky Derby implications. I say that because my only wagering platform (Capital OTB) doesn't cover tracks like the Fairgrounds and Oaklawn Park because of contractual problems. I was told that this has been in effect since last summer, but only now when these tracks play a part in the Derby trail had I realized that. This even effected the first Kentucky Derby Future wagering pool. So, I had to open a new wagering outlet so I can keep abreast of those Derby prep races. This may affect the handle that Capital OTB receives from it bettors who are forced to go elsewhere to wager a particular track.

It was about a year ago, when our Triple Crown hero; American Pharoah was making his three year old debut. The rest is history and 2015 was a year we will soon not forget! This year, the crop seems much more wide open at this point. This was evident in the first Kentucky Derby Future pool where the "all others" field wager was a nice 5-2 at close. This has been the highest odds for that position since wagering was first available in 1999. Even though the public did not send the money in for that particular play, there are two runners at this point who standout in the 2016 crop for the First Saturday in May.

The Breeder's Cup Juvenile Champion; Nyquist and undefeated Mohaymen are the two top runners on every Derby list at this present moment. These two horses are on a collision course in a few weeks at Gulfstream Park in the Florida Derby. Both runners are undefeated, but have taken different paths so far to get to this point. Nyquist won his first start this year going seven furlongs at Santa Anita Park in the San Vicente Stakes. He's six for six now and will ship east for his next start and stretch out. Some question his ability to go a mile and a quarter the First Saturday in May because of his breeding. Nevertheless, he is the real deal and Doug O'Neill's best runner since I'll Have Another from four years ago. Mohaymen is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin for the Godolphin blue who last year campaigned Frosted on the Triple Crown trail. He is five for five and has won both starts at Gulfstream Park this winter. This son of Tapit is regarded as the leader in this year's group of three year old runners. These two horses are the leaders at this point, but I'm thinking otherwise with some other runner coming to the forefront in up coming weeks.

This week we have only one Kentucky Derby prep race and that's at Aqueduct in the mile and sixteenth Gotham Stakes. This race hasn't produced a true Kentucky Derby contender since 1989 with Easy Goer. Since then, only Stay Thirsty in 2011 has won a triple crown race (Belmont) and also was victorious in this race. Primarily this race has become a prep for the final New York race for the Derby, the Wood Memorial. A field of eight are assembled and really only one runner with high expectations for the First Saturday in May. Shagaf (#2) trained by Chad Brown has won his first two starts by a combine eight lengths well clear both times. This Shadwell son of Bernardini takes the next logical step here today versus stakes company for the first time. Sunny Ridge (#7) is the most accomplished in the field with a victory last out in the Withers Stakes which is a prep race for today. Both Pletcher runners, Mo Power (#5) and Rally Cry (#8) rate a chance here being lightly raced and meeting relatively soft competition.