Saturday, June 25, 2011

WANTED: Filly & Mares stepping up to the NEXT level!


The just released NTRA Thoroughbred Poll for this week, has two fillies listed at the top of their rankings. Four year old fillies; Havre de Grace (#1) and Blind Luck (#2) lead the top in thoroughbred world and two other female runners; Awesome Maria (#7) and Goldikova (#8) also are in the top ten. Nearly half are females runners and the trend of the "opposite sex" that horses like; Rachel Alexandra & Zenyatta lead the way the past few years, continues again right now. The focus this past weekend was on these Distaff runners across the country. The top two horses were coming off nice victories. also the Pletcher runner; Awesome Maria has been on a roll. Goldikova was gallant in defeat across the ocean and looks to defend her Breeder's Cup Mile championship for a three year in a row. These top females runners have proven a lot against own kind and with a rather weak older handicap division, the pickings look ripe for doing some damage!

We had been very fortunate the past few years with exciting female runners who have step up versus the males on several occasions. In 2007, Rags to Riches won the Belmont Stakes and was the first filly to do so in 90 years. Next, along came Zenyatta and her undefeated reign lasted four seasons with a Breeder's Cup Classic championship in 2009 and runner up versus the boys the next year in 2010. A three year old filly captured the hearts of many during the summer of 2009. Rachel Alexandra defeated the "boys" three times, in a Triple Crown race (Preakness) the top race at Monmouth Park (Haskell) and against older handicap runners at Saratoga in the Woodward Stakes. She was the first filly to do so in that race in over a hundred years. So, the foundation has been set for the fillies to take the next step against the handicap ranks this year.

Harve de Grace has never been out-of-the-money in her 11 lifetime starts. She recently beat up on suspect competition at Delaware Park and will be pointing to the Saratoga meet most likely next. The Ruffian Handicap on July 31st at a mile and an eighth should be the logical next spot start. But, six days later is the Whitney Handicap for older horses. With her status as the current top horse in the nation, it's only right that she faces the boys in a possible easy grade I spot and she'll get weight versus her foes.

Blind Luck is an mirror image of Harve de Grace. Never out-of-the-money either, she has been a cross country traveler racing in California , Kentucky , Arkansas , Philadelphia and Saratoga . Being a very good shipper, she could go anywhere or stay on the west coast and face the boys in the Pacific Classic on a synthetic surface she loves. Awesome Maria has won four races in a row. She could benefit from the top two choosing spots against the males and spice up her resume in the filly and mare ranks.

We have a great group of filly and mare runners once again, two of them could rival past runners like Rags to Riches and Rachel Alexandra. There's Goldikova, who could make history this fall by winning her third straight Breeder's Cup race. The older handicap horses aren't world beaters. Both, Harve de Grace and Blind Luck are one/two now and may stay that way if they choose to face the boys and are successful.

Saturday, June 18, 2011

Another BELMONT STAKES debacle


The great equalizer in thoroughbred racing is the elements and the ability of the thoroughbred getting a distance of ground. These two factors along with the talent of the field, plays out at post time. Anytime a racing surface is effected by weather, strange things come into play. When a unproven group of horses entertain races at a new distance, the outcome can be also interesting. All these factors came into play last Saturday during the running of the Belmont Stakes.

The weather for the final leg of racing's Triple Crown was anything but good. Rain showers turned "Big Sandy " into an "off track" surface by post time. When ever a race track becomes anything but "fast", this changes the complexion of the race. In the field of 12 runners, only 5 had "off track" experience. Only one (Ruler on Ice) had a victory on it. When a group of three year old colts in a race like this, haven't had experience on such a racing surface, results can happen like they did on Saturday evening. Not, to "redboard" the result; but many people who cashed with Ruler on Ice said the reason they did was because of that one sloppy surface victory. With little or no other runner with "off" track experience, this was a smart play. At the odds he won at to (24-1) it meant even more sense.

The other major factor was the distance. None of the group ever remotely raced at this distance and may never do again. This crop of three year old horses have been thought of as a "cut below" the best. At the beginning of the year, only Uncle Mo was thought of as a "standout" in the Triple Crown contender group. With him gone and two different longshot winners of the first two legs, it wasn't surprising that another different face would win the race and at a big price. Being the longest race of the three; stamina and pedigree looked the way to go in the Belmont Stakes. The sire of Ruler on Ice; Roman Ruler, was good runner as a juvenile and was out of Fusaichi Pegasus (2000 Kentucky Derby winner). His grand dam ( Saratoga Six) was out of Alydar who was proven at classic distance races.

The past few years (since Afleet Alex in 2005) the winner's of this race have done little after winning the "Test Of Champions". Last year's winner; Drosselmeyer, recent won an overnight stake at Belmont and ran 2nd this past Friday in a race going the Belmont Stakes distance of a mile and a half. But runners like; Jazil, Rags to Riches and Da Tara had little success after winning this race. Only Summer Bird succeed in grade I success after his Belmont Stakes win. None of the last six winners were under 4-1 in odds winning this race either. So, is this final leg of the Triple Crown, a "crap shoot" with young horses going this marathon distance? The results would say so the past few years. Also with the mediocre talent of the sophomore classes the past few years make longshots worth a play. With the announcement of Animal Kingdom on the shelf with a injury the next few months, it will take a "new" face to emerge in this three year old class. So, as we head into the summer racing, the three year old class of 2011 is much the same as it's been the past six years. Hopefully, a new exciting three year old colt will take center stage before the fall classic races. If not, the Belmont Stakes of this year will be another footnote as "just another race" much like it's history has been the last few years.

Friday, June 10, 2011

Mark Hoffman's 2011 graded Belmont Stakes selections


Master of Hounds (#1) Gomez / O'Brien (10-1)

Since this year's Belmont Stakes is "wide open" with no clear cut favorite... I'm looking for a price horse and a different winner from the first two legs, this son of Kingmambo had a sneaky good race in the Kentucky Derby rallying late on the inside, pointed for this race.... if he can handle his second cross Atlantic trip & "Big Sandy" the Belmont surface, he'll be tough to beat and a decent price!

Animal Kingdom (#9) Velazquez / Motion (2-1)

Rallied late in the Preakness.....but, wasn't catching the speedy Shackleford. The Belmont mile & an a half distance is right up his alley and he may be a bit closer to the pace today, I'm convinced that he is the real goods and I won't be surprise if he makes amends for his close Preakness lost.

Nehro (#6) Nakatani / Asmussen (4-1)

He was the "wise guy" horse in the Kentucky Derby and after skipping the Preakness, he is the "wise guy" horse again! Some say that he moved too soon in the Kentucky Derby while holding the place spot safe, pointed to this race.... he could go off the favorite, he should just LOVE the distance!

Santiva (#4) Bridgmohan / Kenneally (15-1)

Another runner who had a sneaky good effort in the Kentucky Derby, bred to get the distance and will be a big price, if you're looking for a longshot to use with the probable favorites..... this is your horse!

Shackleford (#12) Castanon / Romans (9/2)

After an interesting pre-race start, he put away his rival and lead the way to victory in the Preakness, once again he could be the main speed and could put them asleep on the lead, I wouldn't be surprise if it happens..... but, you'll be taking a "short" price this time!

Brilliant Speed (#5) Rosario / Albertrani (15-1)

Made up ground late in the Kentucky Derby with a wide trip, can't see him winning the race.... but, wouldn't be surprised to see him suck up in the exotics.

Prime Cut (#8) Prado / Howard (15-1)

Recently tired for 3rd in the Peter Pan Stakes here at Belmont, looks like he could press Shackleford on the lead, don't know if he stacks up good versus these runners.... but, I do like his trainer.

Mucho Macho Man (#10) Dominguez / Ritvo (10-1)

Disappointed in the Preakness with a non-effort after losing a shoe again during the race, gets a major jockey switch today to the top NY rider, his backers hopefully will get 10-1 or better, I think he's "over the top"..... just my opinion!

Stay Thirsty (#2) Castellano / Pletcher (20-1)

No factor in the derby, I question whether he wants this distance of ground and he seems a cut below these runners...... which isn't saying much!

Ruler on Ice (#3) Valdivia / Breen (20-1)

Second best in a prep stake for the Preakness.... but, chooses this spot, not much more to recommend here!

Monzon (#7) Lezcano / Correas (30-1)

Was an upset winner on New Year's Day over the Aqueduct Inner-track in the Count Fleet Stakes, no factor in either stake races since then, monster longshot here with his connections.

Isn't He Perfect (#11) Maragh / Shivmangel (30-1)

Got his doors blown out in each of his graded stakes appearances, his trainer reminds me of a modern day; Murray Garren......putting his horses in races that are WAY over their head!

BELMONT STAKES - undercard stakes selections


The final leg of racing's Triple Crown is today at Belmont Park . We have concluded five weeks of races at three different venues; Churchill Downs, Pimlico and Belmont Park . On all three of these race days, the racing secretaries at each track put together a good undercard of stake races leading up to their big event. Through the years, it's the New York Racing Association (NYRA) that has done the best job with their races on the big event days. This year is no exception and the six stakes races on the Belmont Stakes card comprise the "pick 6" and this is what I'll look at in my column today, handicapping the Belmont day card of stake races.

The Acorn Stakes (6th race) at mile is consider by some as the second best three year old filly race of the season (at this moment). A short field of six are assembled with a prohibited favorite in Turbulent Descent at 3-5 morning line. While the favorite is five out of six with a second place finish, I'll try to beat her at those odds with a horse that showed promise at Aqueduct until an ill-fated trip to Gulfstream Park. It's Tricky, (#4) trained by Kiaran McLaughlin showed promise in her first three starts until shipped to Florida and her bad effort in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. She returns off a short layoff and should improve at this one mile distance. I'll use both Turbulent Descent (#2) and Her Smile (#1) underneath in my exotics.

The True North Handicap (7th) is up next for older horses sprinting. Trappe Shot (#3) came back after a long layoff to score in a overnight six furlong stake. It looks like "sprinting" will be his game from now on and tough to beat here. For 2nd I'll be going with Rule by Night (#4) a favorite of mine since he broke his maiden versus our Lloydobler a year and a half ago.

Three year old sprinting colts go in the Woody Stephens Stakes (8th). Here I'll go with the most consistent three year old sprinter; J J's Lucky Train (#7). After finishing 3rd in the one mile Derby Trail, he returns sprinting and is 2 for 2 at the seven furlong distance. Travelin' Man (#1) is my 2nd choice and he comes out of the same race as my top pick.

It's back on grass with the fillies & mares in the one mile; Just A Game Stakes (9th). I'll be "boxing" the first and third place finishers in the recent Churchill Distaff Turf Mile. Aviate (#2) and Fantasia (#6) look like the best two here off their last races. In my superfecta plays I'll use underneath these runners; Strike the Bell (#5), Gypsy's Warning (#1) and Cherokee Queen (#8).

The last race before the Belmont Stakes is the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Stakes (#10) at a mile and a quarter on grass. The solid pick here is Gio Ponti (#4) coming off his try in the Dubai World Cup in March. Back on grass and at his maximum distance, he has a big class edge over this group. A longshot to use in this race with all the speed entered is Bold Hawk (#2) trained by Jimmy Toner. Making his second start off a layoff, he should have no problem with the distance and will be closing late. At 12-1 morning line odds, he look's like the one to use underneath favorite; Gio Ponti. Others to use in your superfecta plays are; Windward Islands (#3) , Viscount Nelson (#6) and Prince Will I Am (#7). My "pick 6" play will be; 2/4 with 3 with 1/7 with 2/6 with 4 with 1/6/9/12 total play cost - $64.00

Friday, June 3, 2011

Saratoga merchandise marketing & a legendary high school coach!


One of the biggest components of major league sports today is marketing. The driving success of those marketing groups is to promote their product to the public and make known what they have to offer. One of the most lucrative avenues of sports marketing is merchandising. The biggest angle for major league sports other than their attendance of events is merchandising. For years, professional sports didn't tap into this resource until around 20 years ago. Now, the marketing of individual sports teams through merchandising has become a multi-million dollar business. If it's the New York Yankees or Dallas Cowboys; these teams hats, jerseys or any items with their logos on it, bring in much revenue to their organizations. Now the sport of thoroughbred racing specifically, Saratoga has jumped on board the merchandising bandwagon and hooked up with a area retail supermarket to promote their items.

The New York Racing Association (NYRA) along with Hannaford Supermarkets announced an exclusive partnership that will offer racing fans "official" Saratoga Race Course merchandise. Now through Labor Day weekend, Hannaford Supermarkets across the Capital Region will have available for purchase Saratoga Race Course merchandise like; hats, visors, water bottles and thermo coffee mugs. This marks the first time that people will be able to purchase official Saratoga merchandise through a major retail partner other than at NYRA. Over two dozen Hannaford stores in the Capital Region, North Country and Adirondacks will be exclusive partners with NYRA to offer these selection items to the public, "off track".

The timing couldn't be better with this new endeavor by NYRA just a few weeks before the start of the Saratoga race meet. For years, "official" items were only available at the track from the "NYRA Store"or on-line. These four items are basic, in the traditional red and white Saratoga colors with their famous logo. It is hoped that making these items available to the general public at so many outlets will draw more people to the track for it's 40 day meet. It's a marketing "arm" that NYRA hasn't used in the past, but one that has been highly successful throughout the major league sports world. The sport of thoroughbred racing has had it's share of up and downs. Other than the Triple Crown series and Breeder's Cup races, Saratoga is the premier racing venue in the world. Why not gain more promotion through merchandising and make the "red & white" Saratoga logo as big as the Yankees interlocking NY logo!

Several years ago, I wrote a column comparing Hall of Fame trainer; D.Wayne Lukas to legendary Fort Plain High School baseball coach; Craig Phillips. In that article, I made comparisons to their style in getting winning results and how sometimes it wasn't the most popular, but was very successful. Well, another milestone for Coach Phillips was reached this past week when the Hilltoppers captured their 9th section II baseball title. Thirty years since that first championship and 659 career victories, Craig Phillips has been an "icon" in high school sports for the area. Growing up in Fort Plain and a proud graduate, it's an honor to congratulate Coach Phillips on another championship. He is the "Secretariat" of high school baseball and never will be duplicated.