Giving the "Shack" his due!

Last Saturday evening after Shackleford crossed the wire first and holding off Kentucky Derby winner; Animal Kingdom, a winning streak of eight consecutive Preakness tickets cashed by "yours truly" ended. The most predictable jewel of racing Triple Crown had a double digit "longshot" winner for the first time since 2006. All good things came to end for my luck in wagering on this race and once again, Shackleford had it his own way stalking nearly on the lead. This time, they didn't catch him!

I have to admit, I didn't like Shackleford in the Kentucky at all. Since he seemed to "hit a wall" at the eighth pole at Churchill Downs and tired to fourth, I figured like most handicappers that he would get mixed up in a speed duel with other front running horses. He did stick like glue to the pace setter; Flashpoint and in the stretch, put that runner away. He sure did put Flashpoint away. Because between the seven furlong mark and a mile, Flashpoint went from leading by a half length to eleventh and at the finish; dead last! Now, the question was would Shackleford hold off the late charge of the Kentucky Derby winner?

As the field of 14 were coming down the stretch, my second choice; Astrology at 15-1 looked like he had the perfect trip up the rail. The horse I predicted a few weeks ago (on Capital District radio to win this year's Travers) looked like he had a chance to win and a big payday for myself. But, he hung on the inside and tired, now only one horse had a shot at the "shack". That was the longshot Derby hero and the hopes of a "possible" Triple Crown try with a victory.

Now, Shackleford was quite the handful in the paddock, post parade and leading into the starting gate. Sweating, lathering and quite worked up; Shackleford looked like anything but a winner. If I had a ticket on him before the race, I would have raced back to the windows to get a refund! This information provided by NBC was out there for all to hear, if they watched the "live" telecast. What the viewing public didn't know (until after the race) was that Shackleford got this way often before his races. This tidbit of information was told after the race by his trainer; Dale Romans. So much for seeing is believing the way horses behave before the race!

The clever ride that his jockey; Jesus Castanon gave Shackleford was the real reason because of his victory. After close to a quick pace early in the race, he slowed it down enough to keep Animal Kingdom at bay near the finish. Even I could tell that Animal Kingdom wasn't catching him on this day, even with a late rush. I'll have to admit (again) I wasn't fond of him in the Preakness and even more coming down the lane late. But, he really showed a gusty performance in winning at 12-1. His victory, ended my streak and proved that both his efforts in the first two legs of the Triple Crown were all his own on or near the lead. No speed horse or pace presser could overcome his ability to run these route races. Are the rest of this group (besides Animal Kingdom) not so great? Will Shackleford be able to once again, get the ultimate marathon distance of the Belmont Stakes when no one runs with him? Or will what I originally thought of this horse, come true on the third try and disappoint his fans? We shall see in two weeks, I didn't like him in the last two races. But, unless someone else shows up, the "shack" may pull it off again!

Mark Hoffman's 2011 graded Preakness selections

Dialed In (#10) Leparoux / Zito (9/2)

The "lukewarm" Kentucky Derby favorite rallied late after lagging behind early in the derby, hopefully closer to the pace today in a race where he'll be eligible for a 5 million dollar bonus with a victory, this race traditionally bodes well for Kentucky Derby "also-rans" and especially failed favorites in that race.

Astrology (#1) Smith / Asmussen (15-1)

Recent runner-up in the one mile Jerome Handicap at Aqueduct, this son of AP Indy has been one of my favorites since he debut at Saratoga last summer, he skipped the Kentucky Derby for this spot and makes his third start off a layoff, I went on record a few weeks ago and stated that this horse would win the Travers this summer, today he is a major player as the "new" face in the race.

Animal Kingdom (#11) Velazquez / Motion (2-1)

The upset winner of the Kentucky Derby proved that first time "real" dirt doesn't mean a thing with this colt, ran a professional and trouble-free race, a duplication of that effort could send him to N.Y. with Triple Crown aspirations, if you caught him at 20-1 you were lucky and won't see those odds again!

Midnight Interlude (#7) Garcia / Baffert (15-1)

My top selection in the Kentucky Derby was a bust with his effort two weeks ago, racing somewhat greenly and was no factor disappointing me greatly, wheels right back off that non-effort and hopefully improves this time out, I'm thinking a "Hansel" like improvement twenty years later.

Mucho Man Man (#9) Maragh / Ritvo (6-1)

Ran an even race in the Kentucky Derby to gain the 3rd spot late, this hard hitter should enjoy the Pimlico surface and always runs his race, once again.....a must use in ALL your exotic plays!

Sway Away (#6) Gomez / Bonde (15-1)

Missed the Derby on earnings and would have gotten into the race if there was an also-eligible list, had an interesting trip in the Arkansas Derby after having the lead in the stretch and then tiring late, his sire; Afleet Alex was very courageous in winning this race six years ago, longshot chance here.

Dance City (#8) Dominguez / Pletcher (12-1)

Comes out of the Arkansas Derby also with an even effort pressing the pace throughout, adds speed to the mix which this race has a lot of, Pletcher at a price!

Shackleford (#5) Castanon / Romans (12-1)

The longshot pace setter in the Kentucky Derby hit his "wall" in deep stretch, I sure he'll be sent again and will get company this time on the front end, I'll pass on him again!

Flashpoint (#4) Cornelio Velasquez / Ward (20-1)

Races today under new trainer and hasn't started since the Florida Derby where he was rated into submission first time going two-turns, has the look of a sprinter and his trainer does better at those conditions, would be a surprise here.

Mr. Commons (#14) Espinoza / Shirreffs (20-1)

Race evenly in his last start on the west coast in the Santa Anita Derby, draws the impossible far outside post here at Pimlico, another one questionable at this distance.

Concealed Identity (#13) Russell / Gaudet (30-1)

The locally based "house horse", won the prep race for this event last time out, is two for two over the track, but is all or nothing in eight starts with four wins and no runner-up finishes.

King Congie (#3) Albarado / Albertrani (20-1)

Another pure turf / polytrack runner with his two "real" dirt races horrible, nice story how this horse was named......that's all I can recommend about this runner.

Norman Asbjornson (#2) Pimental / Grove (30-1)

Longshot bomber was respectable in both N.Y. Kentucky Derby preps (Gotham & Wood) but the waters get REAL deep in this race, a good friend of mine likes his chances.....I'll take his wager!

Isn't He Perfect (#12) Prado / Shivmangal (30-1)

Has been no factor in his three stakes efforts.......same result today also!

Preakness Stakes facts and my streak.......

The 2nd leg of racing's Triple Crown; the Preakness Stakes takes center stage today. While the Kentucky Derby is one of the toughest races to gauge, this race is one of the easiest. I've been lucky enough to select the winner of this race, six times in the last eight years. That includes the exacta or triple in the last four straight runnings. There are a lot of misconceptions of the Preakness Stakes throughout the years and many myths.

The Pimlico racetrack has been chronicled as a track with "tight turns". When in fact, the Pimlico racetrack is no different than the typical one mile oval. It is thought that the track favors "speed" because of it's design. Once again, there is no notable favoritism toward speed horses or closers on it's racing strip. Many people think that "fresh horses" have a better chance of winning the Preakness Stakes than Derby runners or also rans in that race. In the last thirty years, only five winners (Aloma's Ruler, Deputed Testimony, Red Bullet, Bernardini & Rachel Alexandra) did not race in the Kentucky Derby and were "new" shooters to the race.

So, the myths and misconceptions about horses winning the Kentucky Derby are parallel to the same myths and misconceptions of Pimlico and the Preakness Stakes. Thus, the five Kentucky Derby runners here in this race, have a shot in winning this race. Meanwhile, the other nine "new" shooters chances are a little less because they didn't race in the first leg of the Triple Crown.

It doesn't help that the Kentucky Derby winner; Animal Kingdom was 20-1 in his victory. But, when Charismatic won the Derby at 31-1, he had no problem repeating that effort in the Preakness. This bodes well for Animal Kingdom's chances to win two thirds of the Triple Crown. Troubled trip favorites and "also rans" have bounced back in the Preakness Stakes. Runners like; Snow Chief, Hansel, Prairie Bayou, Timber Country and Point Given were beaten favorites in the Kentucky Derby and bounced back to win the Preakness. This gives Dialed In a good shot today in winning also.

So, the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown is a lot easier to decipher than the cavalry charge of 20 runners in the Kentucky Derby . But, the group this year of three year old colts is as evenly matched as ever. Plus, we get a full field of 14 runners with all the above things mention. That makes a good betting event, with the hope of a Triple Crown contender in Animal Kingdom come Belmont Stakes time in three weeks after this race. Dialed In, hoping to bounce back from a disappointing effort in the Derby and winning a five million dollar bonus with a Preakness victory because of the Magna challenge that included his wins in the Holy Bull Stakes and Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. Or a possible "new" shooters like; Astrology or Sway Away (who just missed the Derby because of earnings) becoming only the sixth "non-derby" horse winning this race since 1980. We get all these possibilities today in a race that I've been pretty lucky in getting the "right" winners with the "right" horses underneath. Again this year, there's a lot on the line with my selections. Let's hope the streak continues!

A "Animal" tale in the "Kingdom" of thoroughbred racing!

Last Saturday evening after 20-1 longshot; Animal Kingdom crossed the finish line in the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby , another one of many " Kentucky Derby myths" had been erased. Unfortunately though, it wasn't the one that I was counting out. With my selection of Midnight Interlude, I was counting on him to win the race and erase the "myth" of no horse without a start as a two year old, finally being victorious after 129 years of history. He finished "up the track", but Animal Kingdom, who had NEVER raced on "real" dirt, won the Run for the Roses. Both he and Master of Hounds had never raced on a pure dirt surface and both were at square odds. Even though I preferred Master of Hounds over Animal Kingdom with this angle, I placed a small wager on both at their price. In a 19 horse field where there was a few "underlays" like; Pants on Fire (8-1) and Twice the Appeal (11-1) because of the Calvin Borel "syndrome", there were other plays in the field worth a deuce or two. So, Animal Kingdom at these generous odds, was my "saver play" last Saturday evening.

It was quite a story on Saturday evening with this son of Leroidesanimaux; who was a stakes winner on grass up to a mile and an eighth and with German distance turf pedigree underneath on his dam's side, gave us an impressive winning effort on a new surface for a very classy veteran trainer. H. Graham Motion, English born trainer who is more noted for his thoroughbred runner's on grass like; Better Talk Now and Film Maker, endured quite a Kentucky Derby week. He had originally two horses entered for the Kentucky Derby , Animal Kingdom and Toby's Corner. The latter had won the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and was consider a better prospect to win the Derby , than the eventual winner. But, a physical problem came up with Toby's Corner just a few days before the race and was forced to scratch. This was devastating to connections and left his trainer with a "longshot" that many gave little chance.

This was not the only twist going into last weekend's Derby . About the same time that Toby's Corner was being declared from the race, the regular rider of Animal Kingdom; Robby Albardo was seriously injured during a race at Churchill Downs . With the possibility of not being able to ride Animal Kingdom on Saturday and not riding any mounts the day before on the Kentucky Oaks card, the connections of Animal Kingdom had to look for another jockey. This paved the way for John Velazquez, who lost his mount when Uncle Mo scratched from the race on Friday morning. So, one of the leading jockeys in the country and without a Kentucky Derby victory after many mounts, gets a second chance which proves to be a winning one.

Animal Kingdom's victory was one of many stories and for a trainer and jockey who endured quite a eventful derby week. The owners of the colt; Team Valor International, a partnership of around 20 members is headed by Barry Irwin who has been involved in the sport many years, in different roles from turf writer to blood stock agent to the title he holds now for the past 23 years. He also had eventful appearance on national television shortly after his horse won the Derby , with comments he made about former trainers for his stable. But, that "over blown" issue will be left for the racing bogs and internet to discuss. That shouldn't take anything away for Animal Kingdom's Derby victory and making his trainer; Graham Motion, now an household name and getting John Velazquez his first Kentucky Derby win . It's onward to the Preakness in one week for these interesting connections.

All Kentucky Derby myths......should soon, PASS! ......129 years later!

As I write this column on Thursday evening like I usually do, the field for 137th Kentucky Derby is set at this point. But, questions remain whether the possible favorite for the race and last year's two year old champion will be in the starting gate at 6:24pm this Saturday evening. Rumors were swirling mid-day Thursday that Uncle Mo could possibly scratch as late as Saturday afternoon and a team of veterinarians would keep tabs on his condition. Cryptic words from his owner; Mike Repole and no comment from his trainer; Todd Pletcher made lots of internet fodder on blogs and horse racing message boards. So, as I type this column, Uncle Mo staying in the race was a mystery.

But, there are 19 other runners in the race and I honestly can say almost half of them have more reasons not to win the race than they do to win it. First off, there is not one runner who has had a triple digit Beyer speed figure as a three year old. Only one horse has won more than one Derby trail prep race this year (Dialed In - Holy Bull Stakes and Florida Derby ). Two horses (Master of Hounds & Animal Kingdom) have NEVER raced on "real" dirt, thus their debut on it will be in the Kentucky Derby . Others like; Comma To The Top, Brilliant Speed, Twinspired and Derby Kitten are winless on the main track also. This could be a product of the synthetic track craze. The runners entered this year have been taking turns beating each other in the prep races. While horses like; Nehro, Santiva, Decisive Moment and Shackleford have yet to win stake race this year as a three year old. So here is half the field listed with more question marks, than things going for them today.

On a paper, both Uncle Mo and Dialed In are the "class" of the field. They'll vive for favoritism and most likely be close to each other in the wagering. So the other eight remaining had have a stake victory along the Derby Trail, they'll get a bit of credit for that. Both Watch Me Go and Twice The Appeal won stakes race at huge odds. In the biggest race of their careers, both will be huge odds again and long odds to repeat their winning performances. Soldat and Stay Thirsty won their earlier preps, but in their last race were off-the-board finishers. It's been awhile since a horse who finished worst than fourth in their final prep race, came back to win the Kentucky Derby . Mucho Macho Man, Pants on Fire and Archarcharch are logical contenders winning prep races along the trail and not doing well in other preps. That leaves one horse, that doesn't quite fit in any of these categories. But, he has one "major" hurdle to clear. One that has remained through the years of time.

The trend that this three year old will be bucking has remain steadfast for nearly 130 years. Midnight Interlude won the Santa Anita Derby coming off his maiden win in his previous start. That isn't the big deal, the thing that is; Midnight Interlude made his on track debut January 29.......of this year! That's right, he did not race as a two year old. The last horse to win the Kentucky Derby that didn't race as a two year was; Apollo......in 1882! It's a mighty hill to climb, but with so many question marks among the other runners, including one of the favorites......he's worth a shot here and is lightly raced, improving horse. It doesn't hurt either that he is trained by Bob Baffert, who has won a Kentucky Derby or two! In a year as confusing as this, something strange is going to happen. I'll take a chance with Midnight Interlude to rewrite history, 129 years later!

Mark Hoffman's 2011 graded Kentucky Derby selections

Midnight Interlude (#15) Espinoza / Baffert (10-1)

Came off his maiden win to score in the grade I - Santa Anita Derby, this improving son of War Chant is on the up swing and is worth a shot at a price versus this group of three year olds, the ONLY strike against him is; he was unraced as a two year old, maybe this year the streak that has lasted for 129 years could be broken like the other Kentucky Derby myths.....the time is now for this angle to fall.

Dialed In (#8) Leparoux / Zito (4-1)

The only two time prep winner in this year's Derby field, this son of Mineshaft has a powerful late close which he's shown in all four career starts, his trainer ran 2nd in this race last year (Ice Box) and has won two Kentucky Derby's in the past (Strike the Gold & Go for Gin), the "horse to beat" in my opinion.

Stay Thirsty (#4) Dominguez / Pletcher (20-1)

The stablemate and lesser thought runner to my above selection, he looked real winning the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct and then shipped to Gulfstream Park for the Florida Derby and was "up the track", that looked like a "non effort" to me and I still can't figured out why he shipped from New York to Florida for that race, if Uncle Mo falters......"my friends, Stay Thirsty" may surprise us all!

Master of Hounds (#11) Gomez / O'Brien (30-1)

This well bred European runner tries the dirt main track for the first time in this spot, ran gamely for 2nd in the UAE Derby on a synthetic surface in his last start, whether he run a lick on the main track remains a question......but, has got the breeding to get the distance and will be a price!

Mucho Macho Man (#13) Maragh / Ritvo (12-1)

One of the more consistent runners along the Derby trail this spring, hasn't raced since the end of March which is a slight concern, has the running style to be right there at the finish, maybe not a winner....but, a must use in ALL your exotic plays!

Nehro (#19) Nakatani / Asmussen (6-1)

Has become the "wise guy" horse off his last two closing efforts leading up to today's race, seems like he'll enjoy the mile & a quarter distance and will make his presence felt late, he'll be "overbet" in my opinion and I need 10-1 on him or better in the win slot before I wager on him.

Soldat (#17) Garcia / McLaughlin (12-1)

His wire to wire victory two starts back in the Fountain of Youth Stakes shows he'll be a pace factor (hopefully) in today's race, as the favorite in the Florida Derby, he was rated off the front end, this did not work and he'll have to be free running to have a chance today, moves up if the track is wet.

Archarcharch (#1) Court / Fires (10-1)

The 25-1 winner of the Arkansas Derby has veteran trainer; William "Jinks" Fires & jockey Jon Court in their first Kentucky Derby , his bandwagon has picked up steam.....but, draws the tough inside post at Churchill Downs , needs a alert start and trouble free trip to have a chance today.

Animal Kingdom (#16) Albarado / Motion (30-1)

Trainer Graham Motion lost his other runner (Toby's Corner) earlier in the week because of injury and is left with this runner trying "real" dirt for the first time, had a decent work over the surface here and like Master of Hounds; will be a price with really nothing to lose.

Shackleford (#14) Castanon / Romans (12-1)

He set the pace in the Florida Derby and just missed at 69-1, he's another horse that now has a "bandwagon" to jump on off that effort, I'm sure he'll be on the "engine" again today, but he couldn't last at nine furlongs.....will he get the extra distance day???

Pants on Fire (#7) Napravnik / Breen (20-1)

Was considered the "weaker" part of the entry when he won the Louisiana Derby at the Fairgrounds, should be forwardly placed once again, this young trainer does well with his two year old stock and his jockey was the first woman to win the Fairgrounds riding title.

Comma To The Top (#6) Valenzuela / Miller (30-1)

Just before his start in the Santa Anita Derby, his connections were going to skip the "big" race, but after just missing at the wire in that prep race.....they changed they're mind, looks like one of the "speedsters"and I question whether he'll get the distance.

Santiva (#12) Bridgemohan / Kenneally (30-1)

He was an even 2nd two starts back in the Risen Star Stakes and then wheeled back in the Bluegrass Stakes where he was no factor as the lukewarm favorite, his ONE bright spot was that he won a two turn stake race here at Churchill Downs as a two year old, could be the "monster" price you're looking for in the superfecta.

Twice The Appeal (#3) Borel / Bonde (20-1)

This winner of the Sunland Derby at 25-1 broke his maiden for a 30k claming tag and now is in the Kentucky Derby , with the addition of Calvin Borel in the irons....he'll be ridiculously over bet, his odds should be closer to 50-1 than what they'll be!

Decisive Moment (#5) Clark / Arias (30-1)

This longshot has stayed in the Derby picture since early January, some pundits say that this horse may make the lead, because of connections he may be one of the longest prices on the board in the end.

Brilliant Speed (#2) Rosario / Albertrani (30-1)

Closed like a rocket to get a nose on the wire at 19-1 in the Bluegrass Stakes, his two dirt races as a two year old sprinting were horrible, doubt he'll be too effective on "real" dirt with his running style.

Twinspired (#10) Smith / Maker (30-1)

got nailed at the wire by top pick, his only dirt race wasn't good either, another you can firmly toss!

Derby Kitten (#9) Castellano / Maker (30-1)

Only got into the race with his Lexington Stakes victory and Toby's Corner not making the race, looks like just a turf / polytrack horse to me!

Watch Me Go Bejarano / O'Connell (50-1)

Longshot winner at 43-1 in the Tampa Bay Derby, came back to show nothing as the favorite in the Illinois Derby versus grade III field, putting him below the synthetic horses really shows my opinion of him!

My KENTUCKY DERBY top 10 with less than a week to go!

1) DIALED IN - has taken the more "traditional" route leading up to the race, getting the trip will be the key!

2) UNCLE MO - not ready to bail on him just yet.......his Wood lost really wasn't that bad, most talented

3) MUCHO MACHO MAN - consistent as they come, may get overlook because of others, figures in the mix

4) ARCHARCHARCH - another hard hitter this spring, connections make great Derby story, square price threat

5) TOBY'S CORNER - with DIALED IN, only Kentucky horse with TWO victories this year, like MUCHO MACHO MAN....should be right there

6) NEHRO - the "NOW" horse, coming up to a big effort off of his last two closing efforts, will be OVERBET off those races

7) MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE - came from nowhere with impressive SA Derby win, one knock; didn't race as a 2 yr.old

8) SOLDAT - the "rating" experiment didn't work last time out, should be on the "engine" in the Derby, loves an "off" track

9) MASTER OF HOUNDS - the "unknown" factor this year, great on turf & polytrack.....unknown on the "real" stuff

10) STAY THIRSTY - last race was just horrible...but, has talent and may be the "forgotten" stablemate to Mo!