184 probables to go and "history in the waiting!"

The Breeder’s Cup returns back to the natural “real” dirt surface for the first time in two year’s as racing’s championship day is back at Churchill Downs . It may be the first time also it’s contested on a “fair” racing surface. Because the last time it was on a true dirt surface at Monmouth Park in 2007, the track condition was very sloppy. We have a record amount of 184 horses entered for the two day event on November 5th and 6th. The pre-entries were released this past Wednesday and the fields look pretty interesting.

Friday will be the traditional “Ladies” day with racing for the first time in Breeder’s Cup history, extending into the night time hours. Since Churchill Downs installed lights a few year’s ago, this is the first time that the Cup races have been contested "under the lights". With the exception of the Breeder’s Cup Marathon , the entire Friday schedule will be for the filly and mares. The Friday card starts just after the 4 o’clock hour and finishes with the Breeder’s Cup Ladies Classic at 7:30pm. It’s very interesting that two of the biggest mares in the world will not be highlighted on Friday’s festivities. The reigning “Horse of the Year” – Zenyatta and European sensation & former Breeder’s Cup winner; Goldikova will race on Saturday and are out to make history. Runners like; Winter Memories, the N.Y. bred; Rightly So, defending BC filly & mare Turf Champion; Midday and Blind Luck, highlight the first day card. Money is to be made this first day with full, competitive fields.

Saturday’s action starts at 1:50pm with the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf. The first three races are wide open and then we come to the Juvenile dirt where the race may come down to Uncle Mo and Boys from Tosconova. We have this year’s Mile (on turf) with a short field because of the presence of the mare; Goldikova. In fact, both the Mile and Turf races have short fields this year. The European presence in the mile & a half Turf have especially limited the number of runners. We wrap things up around dusk once again at 6:50pm with the Breeder’s Cup Classic. The wonder horse; Zenyatta will try to complete a perfect 20 for 20 record and win back-to-back Breeder’s Cup Classic victories. It will be a little different this year since she will be racing on “natural” dirt and versus much tougher company than the past two years at Santa Anita Park.

I was very fortunate the past two years to make some money on the Breeder’s Cup races at Santa Anita. The handicapping on the synthetic surface was easier to separate horses that ran well on it and toss out the east coast and Kentucky based “real” dirt runners. This year it will be a bit harder and the “polytrack” runners may get a closer look going to the natural dirt surface for the first time in some cases. As always, only one score with the Breeder’s Cup full fields is needed to make a lot of cash. I started it off the past two year’s on Friday in the Breeder’s Cup Marathon and I’m two for two in its only two runnings.

I’ll be making selections for both Breeder’s Cup racing days next week in Friday’s and Saturday’s RECORDER and will talking about the races; Friday morning at 8:05 am on 1490 WCSS am on the “Bec and Mike” Show. It’s a much anticipated Breeder’s Cup this year with the return to a traditional racing surface and Zenyatta, trying to make history in her final career start.

2010 New York bred Showcase day selections - presented by NYRA

Today, New York bred thoroughbreds are on "showcase" with the 17th edition of New York Showcase Day at Belmont Park . It's a weekend of celebration everything New York by NYRA with events for one and all. Today, statebreds take center stage with a ten race card exclusively for N.Y. breds and seven stake races in all categories. We'll look at the stakes part of the card and a very special interest for yours truly in this year's edition.

Things kick off in race 2nd - the Hudson Stakes for males sprinting 6 furlongs. It's a field of "stand out" runners and longshot participants. The race comes down between; Driven by Success #3 and Endless Circle #7. It's tough to separate these two, so I'll use both of them with Be Bullish #8. Race #4 is the Maid of the Mist for two year old fillies, here is where my connection to this card is. The stable that I'm part of (Dee Tee Stables) has entered Ausable Chasm #5 to today's event. Our heroine from Saratoga , makes her second straight N.Y. bred stakes race appearance. She's in real tough today and is at 30-1 morning line odds with Eddie Castro up. She'll get the usual "win, place, show" and keyed first and second in my exacta plays, but I always do that with ALL of our stable runners. For handicapping purposes, my selections are; Lady Vi #8 and Saltamontes #7 with Social Statement #10, Queen's Harbor #4 and Hessonite #9 underneath in triples & superfecta plays.

Races 6 through 10 are all stake races and make up part of the late pick 4. The Mohawk Stakes is the first of two turf stake races for the statebred and this one is for the males. Again, it's tough to separate the two favorites; Straight Story #3 and Uncle T Seven #1a. They will be in my top two spots with Pocket Cowboys #4, Johannesburg Smile #5 and Spa City Fever #8 underneath. The two year old males are next up going seven furlongs in the Sleepy Hollow Stakes. Never Right Joey #5 is two for two and trained by Todd Pletcher for Repole Stable.....enough said. It's pretty wide open after that, so I'll use; Crea's Law #1 (the other Pletcher runner at 12-1 ml), Luxury Appeal #4, Bandbox #6 and Hysterical Cat #9 (other Pletcher runner 6-1).

Filly and mares are sprinting in race #8 - the Iroquois Stakes going seven furlongs. I'm singling Meese Rocks #10 on top in another tough event. She's been the most consistent of this group and with the 9-2 morning line odds, looks like a real good bet! Underneath will be; Sapphire Sky #6, Lovely Lil #11 and Shine Upon #1. The usual feature race is the Empire Classic for older males going a route distance. This year it's race #9 and without last year's winner Haynesfield (who is heading to the Breeder's Cup Classic). Another consistent runner gets the call here in Wishful Tomcat #4. Parts of the two entries; Ibboyee #1a and Friend or Foe #2 will be in my second spot with Stormy's Majesty #7 and Giant Moon #8 in the triples and superfecta plays. We wind up New York Showcase day with the Ticonderoga Stakes on the turf for the gals. A tough wide open event; Meriwether Jessica #4 is my timid top choice back versus statebred competition. Must use underneath are; You Go West Girl #1, Chestoria #2 with Exclusive Scheme #3, Crazy Catlady #7 and Akilina #10 rounding out triple and superfecta wagers.

Secretariat....the movie and my review

This week, I take off my handicapping cap and put on my movie critic cap and give my review of the new motion picture; Secretariat. I move into a field that my late father; Bill Hoffman enjoyed, films from the wide screen. This subject I know a little about and this particular movie I’m well versed in the background story. So the anticipated opening last weekend got me out to the theatre and here’s my assessment of this new Disney movie about the greatest thoroughbred of all time.

I was nine years old the year Secretariat won the Triple Crown. The event was big enough for me to remember and through the years, I learn about the people behind the story of his success. Besides the horse, the main character was a woman and at that time period in history this was significant. The portrayal of Penny Chenery Tweedy by actress Diane Lane was very good. It showed how a married woman and mother of four children could go from a housewife in the 70’s to a business-wise woman, cast into the man dominated world of thoroughbred racing. The sport of kings was led by the famous names in the early 70’s and this was not your typical owner or trainer. Her family farm; Meadow Stable had fallen on hard times early in that decade. But did have a champion horse before Secretariat. This part was omitted from the film, but her family campaign champion; Riva Ridge in 1972 and 1973 along with Secretariat.

The portrayal of her trainer Lucien Laurin was excellently done by John Malkovich. It showed his quirkiness and flamboyant style. The French-Canadian trainer with his wildly colored suits wasn’t your typical trainer in thoroughbred racing during this time period. He wasn't like the Kentucky “bluebloods”, Laurin was one of a kind and played an important role in the story. His counterparts were portrayed as hard-nosed no nonsense horse people. The accurate portrayal of Ogden Phipps, Bull Hancock and Frank “Pancho” Martin as the owners and trainer that led the sport during this time period was well depicted.

The blending of Penny Chenery Tweedy’s family life and the story of this great race horse makes the perfect movie. Secretariat was a one of a kind animal with great bloodlines, the will to win and the talent that no horse since then has shown. His magical season of 1973 has not been duplicated since and may never be. The racetrack scenes could have been better depicted though, especially the final scene of his greatest achievement. While his races at Aqueduct, Saratoga and Churchill Downs were close to accurate, the portrayal of Belmont Park was not quite the same. For the film, the scenes from the Belmont Stakes were shot at Keeneland racetrack in Kentucky . Belmont Park is a unique track because of its mile and an half circumference. Watching the scene of his race in the Belmont Stakes really did not do justice in his overwhelming victory in history. The scene portrayed for his Preakness Stakes victory in the movie with original footage would have been much better used for the final scene of the movie and his 31 length victory. The new movie scene incorporated with original footage would have brought out the real essence of that historic achievement. This is the only thing I would have changed in the movie. Other than that, Secretariat was a thoroughly enjoyable movie with a great story for all to see, presented in a way that even the non-horse racing could enjoy. It blended in all the elements that made Secretariat, the legend that he is. It's a four-star movie and I highly recommend to all.

19 for 19 .........one step away from immortality, right?

This year’s Breeder’s Cup is what I like to call; “back to the basics” races. After two years in California on Santa Anita’s polytrack racing surface, the Cup races return to Kentucky and Churchill Downs . Nothing could be better than thoroughbred racing’s championship races determined on a natural dirt surface. It’s been a long time since we had the best horses in the world; compete on a dry dirt surface. Hopefully, unlike in 2007 the last time the Breeder’s Cup was competed on a “real” dirt race track at Monmouth when the two day event was raced on an “off track” surface. But, we all know just how a late Fall day can be in Louisville. B ut for the sport to return the “basics” we know and love, the conditions will hopefully be perfect and dry.

This will be a major key for all the horses, but especially for a certain runner hopefully making history on November 6th. This gal will be defending her Breeder’s Cup Classic championship that she earned last year at Santa Anita on its polytrack surface. Zenyatta looks to keep in tact her undefeated streak and retire an undefeated champion in retaining her title as the best horse in the world. Even with winning this same race last year, she might have been the “best horse” in the world at that time. But, “Horse of the Year” honors went to Rachel Alexandra. This year; Rachel has been retired, Zenyatta is STILL undefeated and the great equalizer, natural dirt is standing in her way for a repeat. But, what if the real stuff comes up as an “off track” on that Saturday afternoon?

Like many questioned last week when Rachel Alexandra was retired coming off two bullet workouts, people have question now if it’s wise to continue on with Zenyatta anymore if the Churchill Downs racing surface comes up anything but “fast” in the Breeder’s Cup Classic. Is there worth the chance of injury for this one last time running her on what could be a surface she had never raced on before. While we won’t know just what the track will be like then, the question comes up if it’s worth this last time out to take the risk on injury just for history to be made again?

A year and a half ago during Kentucky Derby week, Zenyatta was scheduled to race on an undercard stake over the Churchill Downs strip. She never made the trip to Louisville and the track on Derby weekend did come up sloppy. It won’t be the “non-off track” racing surface she is used to in California on their synthetic products. It will be the only third time ever that Zenyatta has set foot on a racing surface other than a synthetic one. While she is two for two over the Oaklawn dirt surface, Churchill Downs is much different and even more so if the surface is “off”.

This mare has thrilled us throughout her career with her dramatic “off the pace” late closing running style. She puts us on the edge of our seat everytime she races. Now, she tries to duplicate something again, but under different circumstances this year. But, unlike what occurred with Rachel Alexandra leaving us with an empty; unfulfilled feeling with her somewhat surprising retirement, Zenyatta will go forward. Take a chance in making history once again, going into the race on a surface that she has never raced on before. Trying to gain something that slightly eluded her last year. The “Horse of the Year” honors she narrowly missed. If she chooses to go (and she should) and win once again this year; Zenyatta will be that "horse of the decade" and no one will be able to take that title away from her this year. She will have closed the deal!

SUPER SATURDAY @ Belmont Park today......final prep races for this year's Breeder's Cup

One of the last "big" days in New York racing is today at Belmont Park . What used to be called “Breeder’s Cup Preview day” is now just called “Super Saturday”. Nevertheless, there are six stakes races scheduled with five grade races. The week’s column looks at these races and gives my selections for each one. The “dirt” prep races at Belmont will be important this year since the Breeder's Cup will be at Churchill Downs on a “real” dirt surface.

Race #3 is one of the last three year old restricted races in New York for the male runners (if not the last). Although, it’s highly unlikely that any of the horses will go to the “Classic” there is still a chance that this race could produce a “Cup” runner or two. Brother Bird is my top selection here with the Nick Zito entry of Our Dark Knight & Jackson Bend for second. The main stake races start in the 6th race; the Vosburgh Stakes at six furlongs which is a prep for the B.C. Sprint. The interesting runner here in #2 Girolamo and he is my top selection. Making only his second start of 2010, he was the beaten favorite in the Forego Stakes at Saratoga in his last start. I’ll use him with Monmouth Park shipper; #9 Wildcat Brief in the second spot. Throw in both; #5 Temecula Creek & #8 Riley Tucker in your superfectas and #1 Driven by Success (if he doesn’t race on Friday).

The Flower Bowl Invitational Stakes is race #7 and the first leg of the “all stakes” pick 4. Although she has never been this distance (mile & a quarter) my top selection is #7 Shared Account. She closed fast the second weekend at Saratoga in the Diana Handicap at 11-1 going slightly shorter. For second, I’ll use the improving #3 Changing Skies for Bill Mott. Superfecta runners to include are; #6 Forever Together and #9 Keertana. Even though the Beldame Stakes (8th) lost Rachel Alexandra to retirement, we get the other two runners from this year’s Personal Ensign Stakes. The pick here is #1 Life At Ten, who Rachel got the better of last time out. #4 Unrivaled Belle is the logical second place runner with 21-1 winner of the Personal Ensign Stakes; Persistently rounding out the trifecta.

The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational Stakes (9th) comes up with a decent field of the usual New York turf suspects. Today we finally get to see the best three year old turf male in the country facing older horses for the first time. #9 Paddy O’Prado gets my top selection here versus older foes that are just average at best. #10 Winchester (Gio Ponti stablemate) is the “horse to beat” for second place. Add #2 Never On Sunday, #5 Al Khali and #6 Bearpath “underneath” in your exotic plays and superfectas.

The last major prep race in New York for the Breeder’s Cup Classic is race #10 – The Jockey Club Gold Cup at the distance of a mile and a quarter. Eight horses are entered with the morning line favorite being #2 Blame. The winner of the Whitney Stakes at a mile & an eighth at Saratoga , he’ll be making his first try at this distance. With his sights on the bigger prize at Churchill Downs on November 6th, I’ll put him 2nd today. My top selection will be #7 Hold Me Back, trained by Bill Mott. At 15-1 morning line odds, he’ll be trying for his first career victory on a “real” dirt surface. I’m willingly to take a chance with him in this spot at those odds. Underneath these two runners, I’ll use; #1 Fly Down, #6 Haynesfield & #8 Rail Trip, who is making his debut on a “non” polytrack surface.