Trust your own instincts .......... your 1st instincts!

The quote of this young meet so far for myself is; "Trust your own instinct. Your mistakes might as well be your own, instead of someone elses." This quote from famous American director, Billy Wilder comes into play when it comes to selecting and handicapping thoroughbred runners. It couldn't be more clear than this past Wednesday as I worked on creating a "Pick 6" ticket for a double carryover going into the card. As I discussed in last week's column, my "play of the day" wager will have ALL the winnings donated to the victims of recent flooding in the Fort Plain area. With such a big carryover, I thought of putting a little pick six ticket together for a chance of possibly making a huge score and nice little donation to my hometown people. It was a tough sequence, but with a little work I came up with a $24.00 ticket.

I worked on different versions in creating how many horses I would use in races 5 through 10. The 1st leg was quite a "head banger" to say the least! Race #5 was a six furlong maiden claiming race that was wide open. I loved the #7 Lady Halite which was 10-1 on the morning line and eventually went off at 5.70 to 1 odds. I figured to use two other horses also, the #4 Mama Zee and #6 Inaflash, which these two runners ran first and second. By using three horses in leg #1, I was alive with a $11.60 horse.

Race #6 was a very good high priced optional claimer for 100k with a lot of familiar names entered. Here was my 1st "single" play with the #10 Mr. Commons (2-1) dropping from stakes action to this level. This race was won a 10-1 shot, Seal Cove for Shug McGaughey and halted my chances of hitting the pick 6 all by myself. Still with four legs to go, there was a very good chance of getting 5 out of 6 consolation payout. Race #7 was the first of two races taking off-the-turf and this is where I made my first change, which I would regret later

I still used my "top" selection which was a turf runner; #9 Corinthianna, but also used a horse with the best main track "dirt" form; #3 My Cousin Zinny who went off as the post time favorite. When I made this change, I took one horse out of the final leg in the 10th race which also came off-the-turf. This would keep my dollar amount the same ($24.00) for the play, just by adding in the 7th and deleting one in the 10th. Needless to say, I should have just stuck to my original instincts and just use the #9 who won and paid $11.20 to win.

The next two legs (8th & 9th) were won by the favorites, so heading into the finale 10th, I was alive with 4 out of 5 winners. I was getting a little excited with the prospect of possibly having a winning 5 out of 6 consolation pick six ticket that was a 1.2 million dollar pool. But, unfortunately the ticket I created the night before was subjected to change by myself because of the two races being taken off-the-turf. I said to my wife Karen, anyone but the #5 can win this race and if the #5 wins....... I'm going to be real upset!

The dirt form in the 10th maiden claimer was much like the 1st leg of today's pick 6. In fact, the post time favorite went off at final odds of 4.30 to 1. I needed the #3 Show Some Lovin to win and he sat second until mid stretch and faded to 3rd in the end. Unfortunately, the horse I tossed out late, #5 Where's Danny, who had NEVER raced on dirt, came charging up and won going away. The result was a $388.50 "5 out of 6" payout, which if the races stayed on the turf in the 7th and 10th, would have gave the people of Fort Plain a nice donation of help from yours truly. I should have trusted my instinct and have no one to blame but myself! This will be a tough one to get over, but I promise to make it up and have 35 more days to keep my promise to my hometown and win them some money!

They're off........ at SARATOGA!

To say that the beginning of 2013 Saratoga race meet got off to a "hot" start, would be a understatement! It was day #5 of a 90 plus degree heat wave when the starting gates opened for the 40 day meet that runs through Labor Day. The New York Racing Association (NYRA) supposedly opens a "new" era with new leadership in place. New faces, new directions are all what it's about when it comes to NYRA and they want to show the public and so course; New York State Government exactly that. But, I've heard this same "song and dance" the last ten years or so and in the end, state government has the LAST say!

This week, new NYRA President / CEO, Christopher Kay met with the press and talked about the direction he wants to see the racing association go into the future. But, talk is cheap IF his hands are tied by the "powers to be" much like the past decade by the state. After all, no matter how you cut it, the bottom line is that Saratoga is a RACE track! We can present it, with all the bells and whistles and new fangled ideas. In the end, it's the money that pass through the windows that counts the most. And the state is worrying about that the most.

I'll be starting my 16th season handicapping the six day a week meet for the Amsterdam Recorder and 26th over all. I've seen it all in that time frame. Opening day is STILL special though. Even though I'll be at the "century" mark (50 years old) in 2014, this time of the year still excites me. The best in thoroughbred racing in the world, comes to upstate New York during the summer months and the area economy thrives with thousands of people coming to the area. Generally a economically depressed area, the Capital District gets a much needed shot in the arm for month and a half. It's something we should be grateful for and should embrace it.

Besides my handicapping of the daily nine (or so) , I'll also have a vested interest with some of the equine flesh that will appear here at the Spa. In fact, on today's card; Dee Tee Stables has two horses entered. In today's 5th race; our N.Y. bred gelding; TOY CANNON continues to try and get his 2nd career victory. Co-owned with Paul Pompa (of Big Brown fame) he's been a steady contender this year and unlucky in his past few starts. Later on the card in the 11th race finale, our other statebred gelding; CORYBANT drops into a open company beaten claimer and gets a BIG jockey switch to Rosie Napravink. Going from the rail, he could land a piece and at a big price! We also had another runner for the grass, MY PAL OF PALS who is trying to get through his non winners of one condition.

This year's Saratoga meet will also have a special place in my heart with my "Play of the Day" which I give out every week day after the 8am news on WCSS 1490am radio during the Mike Mancini Show. My hometown of Fort Plain , New York was devastated by deadly flood which destroyed much of the town. It affected family, friends and broke my heart to see the damage that was done. So, the winnings from my play of the day wager will ALL be donated to the flood victims of Fort Plain. It's my little part in giving back to the community I spent 25 years of my youth and grew up in. It's a special time of the year for me, I'll enjoy it and invite you to come along for the ride until Labor Day!

I'm back !!!!!!!!!!! and just in time for Saratoga!