Holidayfest @ NYRA 2012.....wrapping up the stakes season at the BIG "A"

It's Holidayfest at Aqueduct and the final BIG weekend of thoroughbred racing for 2012. With my 2nd to last column for this racing year, it's all about the handicapping... and that is my favorite part of what I've done for the last 14 years here at the Recorder. Coming off a GREAT Breeder's Cup weekend, we'll try to end the year with some good wagers, until we start looking forward to the Triple Crown season of 2013 in March of next year.

We got four graded stakes at Aqueduct today, two 2 year old races and two races for older runners. The Aqueduct 6th race is a grade II - Demoiselle Stakes for the young fillies at a mile & an eighth, in a race, that could be considered no more than a non-winners of one event. A VERY short field of six runners, with a Todd Pletcher entry (which includes Coconut Shrimp that raced Thanksgiving day and should be scratched) we get ONLY one horse who didn't break her maiden in her last start (Ruby Lips #6). The pick here is Emollient #2 who broke her maiden second time out going 7 furlongs. In a race that is wide open, she'll be my top pick with Unlimited Budget #1 , my second choice....it's a WIDE open event!

The boys are next up in the 7th race, going the same distance in the Remsen Stakes. Again we have a similar field with an Pletcher entry and a wide open field. Here, the Repole / Pletcher entry looks very tough and they will be my top selection (Micromanage & Overanalyze #1) with "class" seasoning and bigger things on the horizon next year. For 2nd, Chad Brown has a very good maiden breaker last time out by the name of; Normandy Invasion #9. Won by over 9 lengths going a mile in last start at Aqueduct, he figures here versus this group.

The grade I - Cigar Mile is up next as race #8 with a short evenly matched field. It's a perfect spot to take a chance with a very talented filly that could win top Sprinter of the Year honors with a victory here. Groupie Doll #7, comes off a convincing victory in the Breeder's Cup Filly & Mare Sprint going seven furlongs. She couldn't find an easier spot going against the boys in a spot for championship honors! Her "main danger" is the winner of this race, two years ago; Jersey Town #4. At 34-1 then, he isn't the runner that he used to be in the past, but is a classic miler and was a BIG winner for me many years ago when he broke his maiden in Gulfstream Park at 12-1. My top two horses (4-7) will be used with the 1/5/6 underneath (Stay Thirsty, Hymn Book and Coil).

We wrap up the stakes action in the 9th with Gazelle Stakes going the route distance of a mile and a eighth. I'm going with a price here and a runner that did me quite well at Saratoga this summer. Sea Island #5 won going this distance at the Spa in optional allowance company and goes from turf to dirt for today's race at 15-1 morning line odds (which she won at three starts back). Along with her in the "win" spot, I'll use Book Review #6, the probable favorite and first time going two turns and the #7 - Wandy's Girl who would be no surprise with her very impressive record of 18 career starts with 14 victories since shipping stateside.

The plays for this HOLIDAYFEST stakes cards are; a Grand Slam (6th) play (1/2 with 1/9 with 4/7 with 5/6/7) and pick 3 plays; (6th : 1/2 with 1/9 with 4/7) & (7th : 1/9 with 4/7 with 5/6/7) with win plays of Sea Hunter in the Gazelle and superfectas of 4/7 with 1/5/6 in the Cigar Mile (8th) & superfecta "key" in the Gazelle (9th)(5/6/7 with ALL in the 4th spot) ......GOOD LUCK!

2012 Breeder's Cup..... wrap up!

This year's biggest racing event; the Breeder's Cup World Championships, are now in the books! Two days of 15 races for all classes and on turf & dirt have been contested over the Santa Anita racing strip. While some racing categories have been decided, others still remain a bit blurry. Here are my thoughts on a few races that had a impact on year end honors and other events which I was successful in wagering.

Probably the most impressive two year old filly, could have beaten the "boys" sprinting a few races before she won the Juvenile Fillies race. Beholder; trained by Richard Mandella, went wire to wire in stretching out her speed to a route distance in victory. She was pre-entered in the Juvenile Sprint, but chose to face her own kind going a distance of ground. With the maiden; Hightail, trained by Hall of Famer; D.Wayne Lukas winning the short field in the Juvy. Sprint, Beholder would have won that race easily too!

In the Filly and Mare Turf, my heart and my wagering dollar was with a fantastic mare; Zagora, trained by Mechanicville native; Chad Brown. She's a mark of constancy since she shipped stateside and into Chad 's barn. Going into this race, she was a sentimental pick and my only question with her was, could she get the race distance. Well, she did and her price in return was a surprise too! Going off at odds of 9-1, Zagora has cemented Filly & Mare Turf Champion honors and was recently sold in auction after that victory for 2.5 million and returned to her homeland of France .

The feature race on Friday was the "Ladies" Classic or like many people still refer the race as; the Distaff, Royal Delta became a back to back winner and could get consideration as Horse of the Year off her unusual wire to wire victory. Friday was close to a "break even" day wagering for me with Zagora and marathon longshot winner; Calidoscopio, bailing me out.

Saturday's races got off to a wonderful start with my second place selection; George Vancouver winning the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf. Set off at odds of 9-1, this son of legendary Phipps runner; Versailles Treaty, he bulled his way to the lead and keyed a nice exacta box , triple box and dime superfecta result for my phone-a-bet account!

Never underestimate the power of a gutsy and hard hitting thoroughbred. That would sum up the victories of both; Little Mike in the Turf and Trinniberg in the Sprint. The speed of both these runners and will to win, garnered both them Breeder's Cup victories. If you followed both these runners throughout the season, you were well rewarded with winning mutual's of $36.60 and $29.40 respectably.

We finished the day with two wonderful and talented runners when, Wise Dan showed his possibly Horse of the Year like winning effort by dominating the Breeder's Cup Mile. This horse can win on grass, dirt, polytrack and with no standout this year in the thoroughbred world, his efforts could get him top horse honors. In the Classic, it was a ding-dong battle between the winner; Fort Larned and my selection; Mucho Macho Man. It was that half length win by Fort Larned that kept me from having an even BETTER 2012 Breeder's Cup finish, than I did!

Breeder's Cup 2012 ........ more "changes" in the wind!

The Breeder's Cup World Championships returns to the west coast and Santa Anita Park, for the first time in two years. The last time it was contested there, the main track had a synthetic racing surface. I did quite well with my handicapping in those races and showed my first Breeder's Cup profit in 2008. So, this year's races will be interesting from that stand point and also with the new medication rule for the juvenile runners. No two year old runner will be allowed to race on lasix in the Breeder's Cup this year. Lasix is a anti-bleeding medication given to thoroughbreds that could prevent bleed during the physical exertion of racing. Years ago, lasix was banned for all horses in New York . The exclusion of this med for the two year olds this year, may lead to all the Breeder's Cup competitors in future years.

This new ruling has prevented several trainers in shipping their young runners to California for these important year end two year old races. Nevertheless, both the juvenile races on the grass are wide open events. It's the three dirt races (for the juveniles) that have limited the size of the fields. But also, the trend in recent years has been for the connections of two year old runners (especially the colts) to skip this race and wait until the three year old season next year for their runners.

With addition of so many different races the past few years, certain race size fields have been effected. With introduction of the Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile and Filly & Mare Sprint, they have effected the Breeder's Cup Sprint race. In the past, the Sprint was a highly contested full field event. Recent years, have taken away those high price payouts because of those two new races. The Turf Sprint on the other hand has not really effected the Breeder's Cup Mile or Turf. Turf race sprinting has exploded on the thoroughbred scene in recent years and the usual runners here are sprinters and horses with up to a mile limitations. A full field in the Turf Sprint has no problem filling in any of the years since this race was introduced.

Looking at today's 9 race fields, several horses stick out on paper and a few races are wide open. Juvenile Turf, Turf Sprint, Sprint and Classic have to potential of getting a 3-1 odds on the favorites. In the Classic, Game on Dude should and will be the favorite. But, I wouldn't take less than 5-2 on him and question him at the Classic distance on "real" dirt. That's why I be using him underneath in my plays and will let him beat me, if he's is two and a half odds or less. Groupie Doll in the Filly and Mare sprint is listed at even money on the morning line. This is a legit number for her versus the competition she is facing. The Dirt Mile has several contenders that are all grouped together. Can't see a "longshot" here winning this event. The Juvenile comes up short and really is a three horse race between Shanghai Bobby from the east coast and Bob Baffert's two runners based here. The Turf race this year has a little more quality than in recent years. The Euros have a legitimate state-side contender to be afraid of in Point of Entry. In the Sprint, the same could be said like the Dirt Mile with evenly matched contenders. But, I can see a longshot running in the money and spicing up your exotics. The Mile on the Turf is the most intriguing race on today's card. The showdown between Wise Dan and Execelebration pits the best two milers in training at this time. All others in this event are running for third or lesser.

Mark Hoffman's 2012 Breeder's Cup selections - day #2 (11/3)

Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf



Noble Tune (#9) - this Chad Brown trainee is 2 for 2 with nice stalking victories and then drawing off, in a wide open event; he looks to have the right running style & morning line price!



George Vancouver (#3) - very interesting European invader whose breeding is from championship stock, has yet to win on turf; but trainer wouldn't bring him here if he didn't think there would be a shot.



Exotic & multi-race runners : Balance the Books - Dundonnell - Brown Almighty





Breeder's Cup Filly and Mare Sprint



Groupie Doll (#9) - riding an impressive four race win streak, meets an average field here and should set the perfect trip, BEST BET on today's card.



Switch (#10) - my selection in last year's race; turns back to a sprint and is 5 times in the money in 6 starts over the Santa Anita strip, need a "price" pick over favorite top selection.



Exotic & multi-race runners : Rumor - Musical Romance - Turbulent Descent





Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile



Fed Biz (#5) - lightly raced three year old colt; comes off 3rd place tiring effort in the Indiana Derby, 3 for 3 at the distance & track, a square price here!



Shackleford (#6) - 2nd best in the one turn Kelso Mile last time out, runner up in this race last year & is at his best distance, hard hitter.



Exotic & multi-race runners : Jersey Town - Emcee - Tapizar





Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint



Corporate Jungle (#10) - no factor in graded stakes action going a mile in last three starts, turns back to a sprint going on Santa Anita's famous downhill turf course, interesting runner in this spot.



California Flag (#1) - hard hitting 8 year old gelding has raced in the other four previous running of this race with a victory here in 2009, hasn't been seen since April with a wire to wire victory on this course, draws the rail.



Exotic & multi-race runners : Bridgetown - Great Attack - Great Mills





Breeder's Cup Juvenile



Power Broker (#9) - strong victory 1st time dirt going two turns here in prep race for today's event, has the edge versus these runners with that win.



Title Contender (#1) - just broke maiden here going a mile; wire to wire, this Baffert one/two punch will be hard to deny with the home court advantage.



Exotic & multi-race runners : Shanghai Bobby - Fortify





Breeder's Cup Turf



Point of Entry (#1) - razor sharp McGaughey runner has won five races in a row and has been never better, draws the inside & only danger would be the European shippers.



Trailblazer (#12) - was a fast closing 2nd going a mile last time out over the course, this Japanese bred runner chose this spot over the Breeder's Cup Mile, distance a question.



Exotic & multi-race runners : Shareta - Optimizer - Slim Shadey





Breeder's Cup Sprint



Capital Account (#8) - just missed with late rally in prep race start last time out, has the home course advantage & running style for this race!



The Lumber Guy (#7) - this NY bred got a grade I victory in last start turning back in distance & versus open company, improving colt makes cross country trip and meets tougher company.



Exotic & multi race runners : Amazombie - Coil - Hamazing Destiny





Breeder's Cup Mile



Excelebration (#6) - could be 5 for 5 this year if not running 2nd the world's greatest horse; Frankel in back to back starts this summer, maybe the best mile in training at this time.



Wise Dan (#2) - a head away from being perfect this year, can win on any surface and is 4 for 5 on turf at a mile, possible "Horse of the Year" honors if he wins this race & longshot wins the Classic.



Exotic & multi-race runners : Moonlight Cloud - Jeranimo - Wilcox Inn





Breeder's Cup Classic



Mucho Macho Man (#11) - this little hard hitting colt has comprised a record of 4-1-1 since his Belmont Stakes effort last year, he's been carefully brought along by his trainer and pointed to this since the beginning of the year, my only question with him is the distance.....not his heart!



Ron the Greek (#10) - his effort last time out was too bad to be true at Belmont on a track labeled "good", his biggest career victory was here in March winning the Santa Anita Handicap, looking for a BIG rebound race today.



Exotic & multi-race runners : Game on Dude - Nonios - To Honor and Serve

Mark Hoffman's 2012 Breeder's Cup selections - day #1 (11/2)

Breeder's Cup Juvenile Sprint



Super Ninety Nine (#5) - broke his maiden first out and over the Santa Anita strip going seven panels, Baffert won the inaugural running of this race last year.



Merit Man (#3) - won the Tim Conway Stakes which was a prep for this in last start by over five lengths, the "horse to beat" here.



Exotic & multi race runners : Sweet Shirley Mae - South Floyd





Breeder's Cup Marathon



Atigun (#1) - has been facing grade I & II competition all summer here on the east coast, this three year old loves a route of ground & should have no problem with the marathon mile & three quarter distance!



Grassy (#4) - taking a real long shot with this first time dirt runner, showed he could handle the distance on grass & maybe just might on this new surface, I've always liked this horse!



Exotic & multi-race runners : Eldaafer - Calidoscopio - Not Aboard





Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf



Sky Lantern (#3) - ships in from Europe in fine form and off of stakes win in Ireland impressively turf sprinting, very tough here & BEST BET on today's championship races card.



Watsdachances (#6) - the first of many Chad Brown runners; this filly is a perfect 2 for 2 since shipping to the US , will be flying late!



Exotic & multi race runners : Spring Venture - Waterway Run - Summer of Fun





Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies



Kauai Katie (#8) - undefeated so far and very impressive sprinting in all three career starts, stretches out to a route distance today & her untapped potential may be shown today as a "superstar"



Dreaming of Julia (#5) - also undefeated; for same connections and proven at a "one turn" route distance, BUT was life and death to hold off foe in last race though, she may regress at a short price.



Exotic & multi-race runners : Executiveprivilege - Spring In The Air





Breeder's Cup Filly and Mare Turf



Zagora (#2) - in a wide open event; I've gotta go with the most consistent mare I know of on the weeds, was 2nd best in last start on a yielding surface, I like the 8-1 morning line odds......but know she'll be bet!



The Fugue (#4) - comes off short layoff after winning the Yorkshire Oaks a group I race in England , tries a firm turf for the first time in her career & has been pointed to this race.



Exotic & multi race runners : Lady Shamrock - I'm A Dreamer - Ridasiyna





Breeder's Cup Ladies Classic



Royal Delta (#6) - winner of this race last year, she is the class of the field..... no doubt, but faces some tough foes & will have to be on her "A" game to become a repeat champion!



My Miss Aurelia (#2) - had a abbreviated three year old season starting late with only two starts, both though were very good & the talent remains from her excellent juvenile season, may be the leader of this class next year!



Exotic & multi-race runners : Awesome Feather - Love and Pride