Friday, November 22, 2013

Honor Code ........ Hoffydogg's next BIG thing!


It's been quite a few years since I've been excited about a two year runner and it's hopes on the 2014 Kentucky Derby trail next year as a three year old. Especially since the way that Juvenile runners train and point toward stake races from their maiden victories to the First Saturday in May in recent years. In the Breeder's Cup era, only one Juvenile race champion; Street Sense, went on to win the Kentucky Derby . That makes the total 1 for 30 over that span and it means that it takes a special young runner to reproduce his two year form and peak in the biggest race of his career the follow year.

On closing weekend of this year's Saratoga meet in a maiden special race on a very sloppy surface, produced in my opinion a very promising and hopefully future superstar. It was a seven furlong sprint, which regarded by many a tough distance to race for a first time starter. This year's Kentucky Derby winning trainer; Shug McGaughey entered a son of AP Indy, out of the mare; Serena's Cat which both were stakes winners. Now, this two year doesn't come from the usual McGaughey owners like Ogden Phipps or Stewart Janney, Lane's End / Dell Ridge farm owns and bred this runner. Not taking much money like most McGaughey first time starters and sent off at 3-1, Honor Code broke sharply and took far back shortly after the start. On the off-going, he rallied up the inside and drew away at the sixteenth pole in a very sharp and eye opening effort. I've always like Shug's runners and especially horses come from clouds with a move like Honor Code made.

After his maiden breaker, Honor Code pointed for the one mile Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park the first Saturday in October. This time he was the 9-5 favorite and again settled in the rear of the pack after the start. But unlike his maiden breaker up the rail, this time he was spun eight wide at the top of the lane and rallied fast on the far outside just missing. This effort proved that it wasn't just the "off track" he liked in his maiden breaker and also showed with the longer distances stretching out that he would have a future on the Kentucky Derby trail next year. The connections decided after his sharp 2nd in graded stakes company, to skip the Breeder's Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita one month later and point to the two turn Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct next weekend on their Holidayfest card.

Following this sport for nearly 30 years, I never had a knack out of latching on to a talented two year old and then getting him to win the Run for the Roses. I've only managed that in recent years with horses getting better as three year olds on the Derby trail. Only Street Sense has been that exception and that was six years ago. Needless to say, he was the last and only Juvenile champion to replicate that. So, there is a big trend to buck for next year with Honor Code. With what we've seen so far this year with the Juvenile runners, the group is evenly matched with no runner head and shoulders above the rest. Just in the two starts that Honor Code has made, he has the right connections with the right breeding and the exciting running style to be a force next year as a three year old. Next week in the Remsen Stakes here at Aqueduct, going the two-turns for the first time at a mile and an eighth distance; Honor Code just may be the exciting horse that will turn heads next spring leading up to the 2014 Kentucky Derby . I'm already excited and this son of AP Indy may be next favorite horse. A win next week will be a nice send off for the 2013 racing season and something to look forward to next March or so when he returns!

Thursday, November 14, 2013

Really? do we need this........ Breeder's Cup "purple" carpet etc.

This week we once again look back at the Breeder's Cup Championship day with the feature race of the card; the Breeder's Cup Classic, which was showcased in prime time television on the NBC Network. After a day of somewhat fragmented coverage on it's sports network, the biggest race of the year was presented in a rather different and interesting way.

Now the "hardcore" gamblers like myself and my friends on E-street, just want to see the racing coverage from a wagering point of view. The "fluff" that surrounds Kentucky Derby coverage the first Saturday in May is one thing. Generally, the Derby has a wider audience from the years of that race being the largest recognized thoroughbred event of the year. It showcases the young three year old runners trying something that some may never do again; race the classic distance of a mile and a quarter. The 20 runners are equal in may ways and the stories from how each got there are interesting. But when it comes to a older handicap horses racing in the Breeder's Cup Classic, these horses already have a story from their races during the year in the handicap and stakes events.

Did we really need, Access Hollywood 's Billy Bush doing a "entertainment tonight" like pre-show focusing on celebrity interviews with crazy zany stories that rather poked fun at thoroughbred racing on a big stage. Or adding E! News - Catt Sadler also doing celebrity interviews and reports from the Breeders' Cup "purple carpet? Now, I have no problem with Toni Braxton singing the National Anthem, but I really could have done without; Kristin Chenoweth singing, the "Breeder's Cup anthem" - The Best is Yet to Come when the horses entered the track. First, I didn't know that the Breeder's Cup had a theme song and second, what was the purpose for a song anyway? There have been 29 running's of the classic, none of them need a song before, why now?

I'm an "old school" type when it comes to the way long standing sport events are presented. Whether it's Major League Baseball playoffs with just the divisional winners and no wildcard or just 64 teams (no more) vying for NCAA Basketball Championship. Just present the event the way it's always been done, without all the pomp and circumstance to attract other viewers. The viewer base, just wants to see the races. Both NBC and ABC have sacrificed races before the Belmont Stakes in year's past for all the "fluff". The Manhattan Handicap was excluded from the broadcast and never seen because of other less important and insignificant non-race stories.

I guess in today's environment, the networks need all the non-essential stuff to give thoroughbred racing the time of day. But even with it, this year's Breeder's Cup viewer ship was down significantly. This isn't good for the sport on the big stage of presentation. With technology on the internet, maybe watching thoroughbred racing for the "hardcore" players like me on network television isn't needed anymore. But, it's my opinion that the way NBC showed this year's classic race will not draw more people to the sport. And unfortunately, I see the coverage of thoroughbred racing on the major networks decreasing in the future if the ratings continue to fall. Much like the extended Saratoga race meet of the past few years, the fans come and watch for one reason. That is to wagering, not for the other "fluff"!

Saturday, November 9, 2013

Breeder's Cup 2013 ....... the aftermath



Thoroughbred racing's biggest day is in the books. The 30th edition of the Breeder's Cup World Thoroughbred Championships was quite eventful to say the least! Last weekend's two day events were full of great finishes, minor upsets and some nice payouts. Here are my thoughts of the 13 races leading up to the feature race, the Classic and the coverage that NBC and their sports network afforded racing's world series. Unfortunately, it's disappointing for wagering fan of our sport.

The coverage kicked off on Friday afternoon around 4:45pm eastern standard time with five races until around 8pm. The Breeder's Cup Marathon is a nice race to wager on and make a few bucks (which I did with my second choice; London Bridge - $20.00) but, this race means very little during the season leading up to this grade II event. Both Juvenile Turf races have been dominated by the European runners. For the third straight year (6 out of 7) with the colts and back to back with the fillies. Speed was "golden", when Goldencents wired the field in the dirt mile and capped a $150 - fifty cent pick 3 with my top two selections from the first three Breeder's Cup races. The distaff was billed as the showdown between two-time champion of this race; Royal Delta and three year old filly phenom; Princess of Sylmar. But, that battle never materialize, when the five year old mare came up empty and the sophomore filly was never a factor.

It was a big day at the windows for me and I was looking forward to Saturday's races which were another late afternoon start at 3pm. Here's where the television coverage got very skewed in my opinion. We only saw the first BC race of the day; the Juvenile Fillies, as they went into the gate and the running of the race. The NBC Sports Network was TOO busy with their coverage of Notre Dame Football and their pre-game show versus Navy. Of course, something would happen in this race and the outcome was very interesting from a wagering stand point. Unfortunately there was a spill in the race and Hall of Fame jockey; John Velazquez was hurt and was off all his remaining mounts on the rest of the card. In the closing stages of the finish, race leader; She's a Tiger drift out in the stretch and interfere with longshot Ria Antonia and was disqualified, which placed the 32-1 outsider into the top spot paying $66.60!

The next three straight races would be won by the betting favorites. Europeans run one/ two with Dank running another big race stateside on the weeds, Groupie Doll became the first back-to-back winner of the filly and mare sprint and Mizdirection remained undefeated on the Santa Anita downhill turf course and also was the first two-time winner of this race. The wide open Juvenile had an upset with New Year's Day trying "real" dirt first time and scoring at a $23 mutual. Again, it was a one/two finish on the grass for the Europeans with Magician ($27) narrowly defeating favorite filly; The Fugue and so far, ALL the Europeans dominated Breeder's Cup distance turf races. The event which I really didn't have a major opinion in (the Sprint) was won by top selection; Secret Circle at an "underlay" price of $7.00 in my opinion. This set up for the two "showcase" races of the entire two days next!

The defending Horse of the Year and winner of last year's Turf Mile; Wise Dan, showed that he is STILL the top horse in North America with another impressive victory with subbing pilot aboard; Jose Lezcano for the injured John Velazquez. So after that great victory, we head to the main event / featured race and a switch from NBC's Sports Network to NBC for the Classic. Here, we go from straight forward horse racing coverage to something like "Entertainment Tonight". Stay tuned next week, for my full coverage of the 2013 Breeder's Cup Classic with the rundown results of the race and my critique of what we saw on NBC's prime time coverage of racing's biggest event.

Friday, November 1, 2013

It's the 30th running of the BREEDER'S CUP!




With the World Series just ending, NASCAR wrapping up in two weeks and the NFL season at the midway point, many of the major sporting events are coming to a seasonal close as we get to the last two months of 2013. Today, the major season for thoroughbred racing has it's biggest day; the Breeder's Cup World Championships at Santa Anita Park in Southern California . We have nine grade I races on tap and many divisional year end honors to be settled today. It's an exciting day of racing with money to be made. Even though this sport has more "downs" than "ups" in recent years, one thing can be said; it's never boring!

We've talked about in recent columns how the past 30 running's of this day has evolved and changed throughout the years. Some good and others bad in my opinion. But, today we'll gather with our phone-a-bet accounts fully funded and televisions tuned to these championship races. Yes, the televised segment of this year's Cup is the first thing I'll talk about. The NBC network along with it's own Sports network has televised the Breeder's Cup for the past few years. They have done an excellent job with their coverage. But this year during the 14 race coverage over the two days, only one race (the Classic) will be shown on a regular network channel. Even more disturbing about this is that the race is part of NBC's pre-game Notre Dame Football coverage. Looks like thoroughbred racing will now be relegated (much like ESPN did in the past) as a secondary sport during their biggest day on NBC.

Now on to better things today; the many ways to make large amounts of money, by wagering small increment bets. The potpourri of wagering opportunities can be done with small bankrolls. We have 50 cent triples, pick 3 & 4 and ten cent superfectas. With the large fields and many betting combinations, a small wager could garner you, big bucks! Last year, I invested a dime superfecta totally $1.20 in combinations and got back a $150 return. Not a bad return on investment! Even wagering horses to "show" can get back payouts with double digit returns when the favorite fails to fire. It's the one time of the year when the "chalk" is few and far between.

But most of all, it's the stage to showcase the best thoroughbred in the world. Like I said earlier, many champions will be crowned today. Groupie Doll in the Filly & Mare Sprint is set to defend her title, coming into this race with sketchy form and the same can be said for the male counterpart in the Sprint; Trinniberg. Youth will be serve in both Juvenile races and maybe future champions will be unveiled. Will the two European fillies (Dank & The Fugue) prove best in both Turf races? The pick six for today, starts with the toughest of the 14 Breeder's Cup races, the Turf Sprint. But as the day draws to an end, the final two races may play a big part in who will become the 2013 Horse of the Year. Wise Dan is entered to defend his title in the Mile and in the Classic, 9 out of the 11 runners entered are either grade I or group I winners. Plus, both last year's winner; Fort Larned and runner-up; Mucho Macho Man are back again this year! If we can get this many returnees from last year, maybe racing at Santa Anita for a second straight year (and next year too) can't be all that bad! Enjoy the day of racing everybody and let's make some money!

2013 Friday BREEDER'S CUP selections

Breeder's Cup Marathon (6th - 4:45pm post)

Ever Rider (#4) - a year ago, a Argentine / South American import won this race at a big price, in a relatively evenly matched field this distance specialist gets the call with a renaissance Hall of Fame rider in the irons!

London Bridge (#7) - this European import tries the dirt for the first time, by the way; it's the first time stateside also for the N.Y. bred, worth a shot with another Hall of Fame jock in the irons.

Exotic & multi race runners : Cease (#2) - Commander (#3) - Indian Jones (#6)



Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf (7th - 5:25pm)

Out Strip (#4) - recently 3rd in group I race at Newmarket sprinting seven furlongs, his dam was a grade I winner at Keeneland on their polytrack & grade I winner on turf also, wide open event.

Bobby's Kitten (#5) - impressive effort in the grade III Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont in last, getting rave reviews off his last two efforts, Chad Brown trainee is named in honor of his mentor, the late Bobby Frankel.

Exotic & multi race runners : Giovanni Boldini (#2) - Bashart (#13) - Shamshon (#12)



Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile (8th - 6:05pm)

Hymn Book (#3) - this McGaughey trainee makes his final career start today versus a very salty bunch, lots of speed sign on here and his late kick may prove worthy at his
15-1 morning line odds.

Goldencents (#12) - was all ready to pick this talented 3 year old "on top" until he drew the far outside post, has been the runner-up three straight times since his Derby trail races, stretches back out to his best distance.

Exotic & multi race runners : Pants on Fire (#11) - Fed Biz (#5) - Verrazano (#10)




Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (9th - 6:50pm)

Al Thakhira (#2) - two for two in Europe with solid victories, draws more favorable post than morning line favorite, trainer does well when shipping stateside (3 wins in 6 starts).

Ready to Act (#11) - had a two length lead as the favorite in grade II stake at Woodbine when she dumped her rider, bullet work at Belmont on the inner-turf course, price here!

Exotic & multi race runners : My Conquestadory (#14) - Testa Rossi (#12) - Clenor (#10)


Breeder's Cup Distaff (10th - 7:35pm)

Princess of Sylmar (#6) - this is the Cinderella story of this year's Filly & Mare class, a dynamite runner with local connections, she has been supplemented to this race for 100k, tasted defeat only once this year, will be rooting for her BIG TIME today!

Royal Delta (#4) - the two-time defending champion here was second best behind my top pick, in 13 starts the past two years her only bad races were in Dubai, the "horse to beat" once again this year.

Exotic & multi race runners : Close Hatches (#3) - Beholder (#5)