The 1st 2016 Kentucky Derby Dozen .......... 2 with 10 others!

Last week, we talked about the top two leaders on this year's Kentucky Derby trail; Mohaymen & Nyquist and their possible clash in the Florida Derby a little more than a month away. Now, I have compiled the first Derby dozen of 2016 with these two leading the way. To be honest, coming up with twelve horses nine weeks out of the First Saturday in May was a bit tough. No other runners than the top two scream out, Kentucky Derby winner. We have two prep races today, the Tampa Bay Derby and San Felipe Stakes. Nearly half of the dozen (five) will be racing today, hoping to make their mark and stay on the list.



The stronger of the two races (quality wise) is the San Felipe Stakes, a prep for the final west coast Derby race; the Santa Anita Derby. Going the mile and a sixteenth distance, three contenders on the list are going here. Bob Baffert's best prospect, Mo Spirit (ranked 3rd) meets Exaggerator (ranked 5th) who ran well as a two year old and goes for the Texas Red connections of last year; the Desormeaux brothers. Add the undefeated California bred; Smokey Image (ranked 12th) and we have the best from the left coast. The remaining four entered here all rate a chance coming off either winning or in the money finishes. I'm leaning toward the runner with the most overall experience making his second start off a layoff, Exaggerator (#7). Wide open event here.



Down in Florida, the Tampa Bay Derby is the better betting race. It has the Sam Davis prep winner; Destin (ranked 10th) who is trained by Todd Pletcher versus Brody's Cause (ranked 11th) who is making his seasonal debut in this race. This son of Giant's Causeway, trained by Dale Romans ran third in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile and may be the best runner to get the mile and a quarter distance the first Saturday in May. While the west coast prep has more well known names, the Tampa Bay Derby offers betting value. The two ranked runners I'll use underneath my top two selections; Riker (#6) & Rafting (#2). My top selection makes his three year old debut and under new trainer; Mark Casse. He made his dirt debut last year in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile where he set the pace and faded late. My second selection ran a good 2nd with a wide trip in the Sam Davis Stakes. A superfecta box of 2-6-7-8 and exacta of 2-6 are the play here.



As for the remainder of the dozen, Shagaf (ranked 6th) makes the dozen with a "workman" like victory in the Gotham Stakes last week and will be headed to the Wood Memorial next and Zulu (ranked 7th) punched his ticket to the Florida Derby, running second. Both Gun Runner (ranked 4th) & Greenpointcrusader (ranked 9th) are heading to the bayou in the Louisiana Derby at the end of the month and longshot winner of the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn, Suddenbreakingnews (ranked 8th) will next start in the Rebel Stakes. Here's the complete list of Hickory Hill Hoff's ~ AT THE POST 2016 Kentucky Derby dozen with my odds and next prep start. 1) Mohaymen (4-1) ~ Florida Derby. 2) Nyquist (6-1) ~ Florida Derby. 3) Mo Spirit ~ (10-1) San Felipe Stakes. 4) Gun Runner (12-1) ~ Louisiana Derby. 5) Exaggerator (12-1) ~ San Felipe. 6) Shagaf (15-1) ~ Wood Memorial. 7) Zulu (15-1) ~ Florida Derby. 8) Suddenbreakingnews (20-1) ~ Rebel Stakes. 9) Greenpointcrusader (20-1) ~ Louisiana Derby. 10) Destin (20-1) ~Tampa Bay Derby. 11) Brody's Cause (20-1) ~ Tampa Bay Derby. 12) Smokey Image (30-1) ~ San Felipe.

My 18th year in print, along the Triple Crown trail

The vacation is over, I'm back on track! After my usual three month sabbatical from the sport of kings during the winter months, I'm ready to start my eighteen year covering thoroughbred action for the Amsterdam Recorder. It's also marks the thirtieth year for myself following the sport I love so much. Well, the past three months went quickly. Our unconventional mild winter has been a welcomed plus for this fifty one year old body and also a quiet one on the wagering front. I also took a sabbatical from wagering expect for the sparse stakes races on the weekends. It has been also tough to wager on certain tracks which have runners with Triple Crown and Kentucky Derby implications. I say that because my only wagering platform (Capital OTB) doesn't cover tracks like the Fairgrounds and Oaklawn Park because of contractual problems. I was told that this has been in effect since last summer, but only now when these tracks play a part in the Derby trail had I realized that. This even effected the first Kentucky Derby Future wagering pool. So, I had to open a new wagering outlet so I can keep abreast of those Derby prep races. This may affect the handle that Capital OTB receives from it bettors who are forced to go elsewhere to wager a particular track.

It was about a year ago, when our Triple Crown hero; American Pharoah was making his three year old debut. The rest is history and 2015 was a year we will soon not forget! This year, the crop seems much more wide open at this point. This was evident in the first Kentucky Derby Future pool where the "all others" field wager was a nice 5-2 at close. This has been the highest odds for that position since wagering was first available in 1999. Even though the public did not send the money in for that particular play, there are two runners at this point who standout in the 2016 crop for the First Saturday in May.

The Breeder's Cup Juvenile Champion; Nyquist and undefeated Mohaymen are the two top runners on every Derby list at this present moment. These two horses are on a collision course in a few weeks at Gulfstream Park in the Florida Derby. Both runners are undefeated, but have taken different paths so far to get to this point. Nyquist won his first start this year going seven furlongs at Santa Anita Park in the San Vicente Stakes. He's six for six now and will ship east for his next start and stretch out. Some question his ability to go a mile and a quarter the First Saturday in May because of his breeding. Nevertheless, he is the real deal and Doug O'Neill's best runner since I'll Have Another from four years ago. Mohaymen is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin for the Godolphin blue who last year campaigned Frosted on the Triple Crown trail. He is five for five and has won both starts at Gulfstream Park this winter. This son of Tapit is regarded as the leader in this year's group of three year old runners. These two horses are the leaders at this point, but I'm thinking otherwise with some other runner coming to the forefront in up coming weeks.

This week we have only one Kentucky Derby prep race and that's at Aqueduct in the mile and sixteenth Gotham Stakes. This race hasn't produced a true Kentucky Derby contender since 1989 with Easy Goer. Since then, only Stay Thirsty in 2011 has won a triple crown race (Belmont) and also was victorious in this race. Primarily this race has become a prep for the final New York race for the Derby, the Wood Memorial. A field of eight are assembled and really only one runner with high expectations for the First Saturday in May. Shagaf (#2) trained by Chad Brown has won his first two starts by a combine eight lengths well clear both times. This Shadwell son of Bernardini takes the next logical step here today versus stakes company for the first time. Sunny Ridge (#7) is the most accomplished in the field with a victory last out in the Withers Stakes which is a prep race for today. Both Pletcher runners, Mo Power (#5) and Rally Cry (#8) rate a chance here being lightly raced and meeting relatively soft competition.