Breakfast in the Desert ~ 2017 style!

Today we're serving breakfast in the desert for the 21st year with 2017 edition of the Dubai World Cup card from the crown jewel of racing in the Middle East at Meydan Racecourse. This annual event the final Saturday in March marks my unofficial end of the winter racing season. The Dubai World Cup going a mile and a quarter on dirt, was the world's richest race until this year when the Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park back in January surpassed it. From Cigar in the inaugural running back 1996, to California Chrome last year, American based runners have dominated this race. Today, one of the brightest American stars, who wasn't even on the map a year ago goes for the glory today to add his name to this historic list of champions in the desert.

Arrogate (#9) trained by Bob Baffert became a superstar last summer at Saratoga with a record setting victory in the Travers Stakes. He followed that up with a dominate victory in the Breeder's Cup Classic and a few week's ago winning the first edition of the Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park. Three straight grade I wins and today shows his talent overseas against the best in the world. All indications point to him as the odds-on favorite once again to find the winners circle in fantastic fashion. On pure talent, Arrogate is head and shoulders over the thirteen other runners his faces today. The question is; who for value purposes do you use underneath the phenom?

Awardee (#7) hails from Japan and has been a proven runner at this distance on dirt with three victories in 12 starts and five other times in the money. In his last eight starts, he has been no worst than second, all in stakes. He is listed at 30-1 on the morning line and looks like a solid runner up horse to use at a price.

Gun Runner (#5) was the second best three year old last year when the dust settled. Other than his effort on a sloppy track in the Haskell Stakes, he has been a gem of consistency. The only real stumbling block for him is the distance, a mile and a quarter. Winless in two tries at this distance, other than that he figures a contender off his sharp form he has shown.

Others that you can use underneath my top three selections are; Hoppertunity (#12) who always figures to land a piece, Special Fighter (#13) who was fourth in this race last year and makes his second start off that layoff & Mubtaahij (#14) who won the UAE Derby two years ago at this distance. Numbers for this year's Dubai World Cup : 9-7-5 with 12-13-14 in your superfectas.

Here are my selections for the remainder of the Dubai World Cup stakes card;

Godolphin Mile (1st) : 7-6-8-10 / Dubai Gold Cup (3rd) : 6-3-12-1 / UAE Derby (4th) : 13-6-3-15 / Al Quoz Sprint (5th) : 7-6-11-9 / Dubai Golden Shaheen (6th) : 11-14-1-12 / Dubai Turf (7th) : 1-4-12-10 / Dubai Sheema Classic (8th) : 7-3-5-6.

A masterful victory, with an unfortunate ending ........ with an Anthem to follow

The road to this year's Kentucky Derby has been a rocky trail to say the least! After a few years of logical horses winning the prep races leading to the first Saturday in May, this year everything has gone out the door with that logic. The most clear path lately, has been on the west coast with the California based horses. Whether it's been California Chrome, American Pharoah or Nyquist; the way to go as favorite at post time in the Kentucky Derby was to come from the left coast at one point in your racing career. This year with many of the top contenders falling by the wayside with various injuries or poor efforts, all eyes were focused on last weekend's San Felipe Stakes and Bob Baffert's runner; Mastery. While he did not disappoint with his effort, soon after his victory it was disappointment that set in.

Mastery looked to take a stranglehold on the three year old division with a victory last Saturday afternoon. Well, he won the race in quite impressive fashion. But shortly after the wire, his jockey Mike Smith noticed something amiss with this son of Candy Ride. It was apparent that Mastery suffered some sort of injury when his jockey, dismounted him as the crossed the finish line. Much to the chagrin of his supporters and trainer Bob Baffert, Mastery had a condylar fracture to his left front leg that would require surgery and indefinite time off, thus missing the Kentucky Derby and triple crown races.

With runners like; Classic Empire, McCracken coming down with issues and El Areeb and Irish War Cry with poor efforts in their prep races, Mastery looked to go to the top at the finish in the San Felipe Stakes. Instead, the finish was the finish for him as the three year old and any chance of winning the Kentucky Derby. The result has muddled this year's Kentucky Derby picture even more. After recent years of good success with the favorites for the Run for the Roses, this year it's wide open field at this point in March. It is hoped the both Classic Empire, along with McCracken and Irish War Cry all bounce back in their next prep races. It's the only shot they have to redeem themselves and once again stake their claim as the best thoroughbreds in the Class of 2017 and the First Saturday in May.

We have only one prep race this weekend and it's at Oaklawn Park in the mile and a sixteenth; Rebel Stakes (OP 10th). Bob Baffert attempts to reload this weekend with another charge in American Anthem (#7) who in only two career starts has a first and second as the favorite. This son of Bodemeister worked in company earlier this week with an older Baffert runner; Mor Spirit, entered in the Essex Handicap two races before. After stalking the older runner, American Anthem excelled in the stretch and soon passed Mor Spirit in a sharp six furlong workout. With Mastery off the Derby Trail with injury, American Anthem may be Baffert's only hope for eight weeks from now. He'll be my top pick here with Baffert going for his seventh Rebel victory in the last eight runnings. For second, I'm using the Steve Asmussen recent runner-up in the Risten Star Stakes; Untrapped (#5) who shifts from the Fairgrounds where he raced in his last two starts. For third, it was nearly thirty years ago when trainer; Jack Van Berg had Alysheba nearly win the Triple Crown in 1987. Today he has longshot and recent maiden winner; Appalachian Gem (#9) trying winners for the first time and will be a price to use underneath. The numbers for the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park are; 7 with 5 with 9 and 4/6/10/11 in my superfecta plays.

Another Saratoga Special winner, steps up to the plate and WINS ...... while two other top leaders fail!

In last week's column, I spoke about two horses that could "step up" to the top of the Kentucky Derby prep standings with victories in their respective races. With both Classic Empire and McCracken cropping up with minor issues before their next prep races, Irish War Cry and El Areeb could have moved to the top with victories last weekend. But it became apparently clear after the dust settled, that neither could capitalize with their efforts. Instead, another runner who has been very consistent throughout his short career has risen to the top.

In the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, El Areeb was going for three straight stakes victories in a row at 2-5, but as they turned into the stretch he came up empty fading to third. The winner, J Boys Echo (who was soundly beaten by El Areeb last time the faced each other) won going away and earned 50 points toward the Kentucky Derby. El Areeb's effort sent him down my list and is now questionable in getting the mile an quarter derby distance.

The Florida Derby had even money favorite; Irish War Cry who was no factor, never gaining the lead and finishing a very dull seventh. He came out of the race, clean the next day and his trainer Graham Motion had no explanation for his horrible effort. Practical Joke, coming off third place in last Fall's Breeder's Cup Juvenile returned to the races with a good middle move running second and should move forward. But the real big winner this weekend was a colt who was a graded stakes winner last summer at Saratoga as a two year old and reminds me of a horse last year on the derby trail who held his form and became a Triple Crown race winner in the Preakness. That horse was Exaggerator, who was a solid runner from his two year old campaign right through mid summer last year.

The winner of the Fountain of Youth last Saturday; Gunnevera mirrors him. Trained by local Gulfstream connections; Antonio Sano, this son of Dialed In won the Saratoga Special last year (as did Exaggerator in 2015) continued to hold his form in the Fall winning the Delta Jackpot and ran second in the Holy Bull Stakes last out. Overlooked a bit here as the third choice at 4-1, Gunnevera rallied drawing off by nearly six lengths to victory. Now, he is at the top of my Kentucky Derby list. A winner of four out of eight career starts, Gunnevera has the right running style and seems he should have no problem getting the mile and a quarter distance. While the two logical runners failed, a consistent runner takes advantage and moves right to the top!

Here is my current Derby dozen, eight weeks out of the First Saturday in May. 1) Gunnevera 2) McCracken 3) Practical Joke 4) Classic Empire 5) One Liner 6) Gormley 7) Mastery 8) J Boys Echo 9) Girvin 10) Irish War Cry 11) El Areeb 12) American Anthem. Both Gormley and Mastery are racing in the San Felipe Stakes today at Santa Anita going a mile and a sixteenth and the Tampa Bay Derby a field of ten with the Todd Pletcher trainee; Tapwrit who was the runner-up behind McCracken in the Sam Davis Stakes prep for this as the likely favorite. My selections for the San Felipe Stakes (SA 7th) are 4-6-5-3 and in the Tampa Bay Derby (TAM 11th) : 8-5-4-9.

After a LONG hiatus ......Hoffydogg's "AT THE POST" on the Sand Flats blog, RETURNS!

The road to the 2017 Kentucky Derby begins this week and with the start of my 19th year of the "At the Post" column here in the Recorder. The biggest news early on the prep race trail is that the top two leading contenders for the First Saturday in May have physical issues that have prevented them from their next scheduled race. Two year old champion; Classic Empire was unusually dull in three year old debut at Gulfstream Park in the recently run, Holy Bull Stakes. It was determined after that race, he had a foot abscess which has cause him to miss today's Fountain of Youth Stakes. His trainer; Mark Casse now is pointing him to the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 8th. Meanwhile, McCracken who won his seasonal debut in Sam Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay, wrenched his ankle after a workout this week and will miss his next start in the Tampa Bay Derby. He too will contest the Blue Grass Stakes in his next start.

With both of the leading contenders for this year's derby missing their next start, for the first time in recent years the Kentucky Derby is looking for leader for favoritism. We've had four straight favorites win the Run for the Roses in Orb, California Chrome, American Pharoah and Nyquist. Two of the four have become legendary horses after thier derby victory. With the current top two runners having question marks at this current time, someone has to step up quickly. We may get that from the two runners right behind Classic Empire and McCracken in my pecking order.

Irish War Cry (trained by Graham Motion) led the Holy Bull field wire to wire, first time going two turns at 4-1. Undefeated in all three of his career starts, this son of Curlin faces ten others including nine new faces in today's Fountain of Youth Stakes (GP 13th). Another effort like his last and he moves solidly to the top of my three year old rankings. Meanwhile in New York, This year's version of Smarty Jones goes for his third straight three year old stake victory this winter. El Areeb (trained by Maryland based, Cathal Lynch) has won two- two turn contests the grade III Withers and Jerome Stakes. This son of Exchange Rate has won four straight and faces nine runners, including six new opponents. A victory here and in the Wood Memorial may propel him as one of the betting choices in ten weeks.

We've said a little about the two favorites in both of today's three year old preps, now I'll add a few other runners to use with them when wagering today. The Gotham Stakes (8th ~ 4:50) at Aqueduct is a mile and a sixteenth on their inner-track. So Conflated (#8) looks interesting shipping in from winning the California Derby at Golden Gate Fields in his last start. That was on polytrack and he was scratched from last weekend's Risen Star Stakes at the Fairgrounds after drawing the far outside post. Action Everyday (#10) ships up from Tampa Bay for Todd Pletcher. He's two for two, but has to overcome the far outside post first time in a stake. The play for the Gotham is : 4 with 8/10 with 8/10 with 3/6/9. The Fountain of Youth (13th~6:05) at Gulfstream is a mile and a sixteenth also. Here I'm going to try and beat Irish War Cry with Practical Joke (#6) coming a third place finish in last Fall's Breeder's Cup Juvenile. With the 6 & 8 in the first two positions, I'll use underneath those two; Gunnevera (#2) who has only one bad effort since winning the Saratoga Special last summer, Talk Logistics (#4) longshot closer to use in exotics and Made You Look (#9) a Todd Pletcher turf stakes winner trying dirt for the first time in his career. The play for the Fountain of Youth is : 6/8 with 6/8 with 2/4/9.