2011 Dubai World Cup selections

It's Dubai World Cup day, the richest day thoroughbred racing and one of my favorite first big racing days on the calendar. Six stakes races, on the Meydan synthetic and turf racecourse at distances from a straight six furlong dash to a mile and a half on the grass. As usual, we have a large United States contingent that made the trip to the desert to contest these million dollar races. After watching the "Super Thursday" prep card on March 3rd, we see several horses return today with hopes of winning these group races versus some of the best in the world. We'll take a look at these six races and give my selections for each.

The first is the Godolphin Mile which goes as the 3rd race. My top selection here is a Kentucky Derby runner from last year. Conveyance (#2) was the pace setter on the sloppy Churchill surface and trained by Bob Baffert at the time. He made his return to the races this year on Super Thursday in a six furlong sprint where he tired after setting the pace for 2nd. Today with that return race under his belt and stretching out to the mile distance, he will be tough from his inside post. We'll go to the outside for my 2nd pick; Skysurfers (#13) who won in his first start of the year at this distance and was 3rd in this same race last year. Horses to use underneath my exacta box selection are; Zafeen Speed (#8) I Want Revenge (#10) Rileyskeepingthefaith (#12).

The Dubai version of the Kentucky Derby is next up with the UAE Derby . A race that has both males and females, plus Southern Hemisphere horses. Here I'm taking a longshot filly who defeated males in the prep race for this last time out. Reem (#1) has enjoyed the Meydan racecourse when two wins and two second place finishes this past winter. Her 10-1 morning line odds look very good off her blowout victory last time out. Splash Point (#3) won the UAE 2000 Guineas another prep race for this event and is my second choice. There's a lot to choose underneath my top two selections with no clear cut favorite. Here I'll use; Xin Xu Lin (#13) Master of Hounds (#9) Zanzamar (#8).

Sprinters are up next in the six furlong Dubai Golden Shaheen. A seven year old horse (not gelding) is my pick here and a favorite of many. Euroears (#7) won first time out for new trainer Bob Baffert and makes the trip across the ocean to find his "fountain of youth". The logical 2nd choice is last year's winner; Kinsale King (#1) and runner up Rocket Man (#5) with longshot Dynamic Blitz (#9) underneath.

The first of two grass races comes up with the mile and eighth; Dubai Duty Free. I'm going to the far outside post and to a mare again. Raihana (#16) was good here last year on the main track and this year has reproduced that form on the "proper surface" - grass. The post position is my only concern here. For 2nd, the Godolphin connections decided to put their runner; Mendip (#7) in this spot, instead of the World Cup field. He'll be making his first career start on the weeds after six career starts never out-of-the-money on the main track. Underneath these two.....use; the consistent Bankable (#9) Better Than Ever (#12) who sports 15 career victories in 16 lifetime starts and Victor's Cry (#14) who should be closing late.

The Dubai Sheema Classic comes up a little more clear cut with the two California shippers. Champ Pegasus (#7) and Bourbon Bay (#9) are my top two choices. It's tough to separate these two and underneath I'll use; Redwood (#5) Dangerous Midge (#12) last year's Breeder's Cup Turf winner making his first start of 2011 and Chinchon (#3). I think all the shippers from stateside have a edge over the rest of the field.

The big event of the day is of course, the Dubai World Cup with a ten million purse going a mile and a quarter. Twice Over (#12) will most likely be the favorite off his prep victory here on Super Thursday. But, he'll be my 2nd choice today. The well thought of and last year's UAE Derby winner ; Musir (#7) is my top pick and recent runner-up behind Twice Over last time out. Never worst than second in eight career starts, he's making his third start off a layoff and that's a dangerous angle. With these two runners, I'll be using underneath; Gio Ponti (#5) which I STILL question at the mile & a quarter distance, Fly Down (#1) my favorite "underachiever" making his first career start on a synthetic surface and old reliable; Gitano Hernando (#8) who always makes a good account of himself.

Derby contenders bracket.....solid top seed

This week began "March Madness" for NCAA college basketball tournament where the expanded field of teams now totals 68. It seems that the thought is; more is better. But like with anything; when more is added to the mix, the product can be diluted. The mix of prep races along the triple crown trail has increased throughout the years and now includes special written races. We have seen this with the top two of it's major contenders this year. Two of the "quote", number one seeds; Uncle Mo and Dialed In both raced in specially written races for them the past few weeks.

Uncle Mo made his seasonal debut last weekend in a newly written race; the Timely Writer Stakes. Facing only marginally good runners, his return was a little more than a public workout and done in easy fashion. A few weeks back, Dialed In returned off his Holy Bull Stakes victory to a two-turn test at Gulfstream Park in a race written for him. There he finished a good second (behind his stablemate) and now has two starts under his belt this year. These two races for these two colts were no more than "play in" games and the real competition will come in a few weeks, the April 3rd Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park for Dialed In and the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 9th.

The "second seeds" are the up and coming runners who have already shown talent with derby prep victories. Mucho Macho Man needed his first race back when he tired as the lukewarm favorite in the Holy Bull Stakes. He then shipped to Louisiana where he bounced back to win the Risen Star Stakes at the Fairgrounds. This son of Macho Uno has raced at six tracks and will stay at the Fairgrounds to race next in the Louisiana Derby on March 26th. Then we have Sodat, trained by Kiaran McLaughlin. This son of War Front raced twice at Saratoga on "off track" surfaces and then was switched to grass for his next three starts. He returned for his three year old season at Gulfstream and won an off-the-turf event by over ten lengths. He recently came back in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and went wire to wire in victory.

The next group could be considered "Cinderella" type runners the are currently longshots, but with improvement could move up the ladder very quickly. A few of these are west coast runners to keep in mind. Silver Medallion, Anthony's Cross and Premier Pegasus. The latter was a recent impressive winner of the mile and a sixteenth; San Felipe Stakes. A Bob Baffert runner named; The Factor will ship to Oaklawn Park and will stretch out to contest the Rebel Stakes this weekend. His three year old debut was a victory in the San Vicente Stakes at seven furlongs. To Honor and Serve, ran an even 3rd in his three year old stakes debut versus Mucho Macho Man. There's also the consistent types like; Gourmet Dinner, Santiva and Stay Thirsty who won the recent Gotham Stakes going on a route on the Aqueduct Inner-track.

Then there are the horses that need to show more, but they can lay claim as realistic Derby contenders. These guys are the "high" double digits seeds. Jaycito, Brethren , Comma to the Top, Machen. They all need to step it up in their next prep races to really be considered as dangerous horses. But with good efforts, they too could pull off an upset and rise to the top. These are the "Sweet Sixteen" of the current Derby trail runners. And much like during the "March Madness" tournament, things can change quickly and the mighty can fall.

Uncle Mo is back in town!

The 2001 Triple Crown trail gets into full swing this weekend with it's two year old star from last year making his sophomore debut. The Todd Pletcher sensation from last summer and Fall, Uncle Mo returns to the races today in Florida. The question is; will he race at Gulfstream Park in a race written for him or venture north to Tampa Bay and race in the Tampa Bay Derby? The jury is still out in which direction he might go, but one is for sure that this effort where ever he goes will mean a lot on how the rest of this year's three year old crop will stack up.

The connections of this undefeated son of Indian Charlie originally penciled in the Tampa Bay Derby as his first start in 2011. But, when Gulfstream Park decided to write a race for him with a $100,000 overnight purse, the connections thought maybe a change. This race called; The Timely Writer Stakes would be at one mile, a perfect distance for him to return to the races. But, there may be a question whether the Gulfstream Park racing secretary can get this race to fill. As of the writing of this column, there weren't many horseman willing to place their runners in this race versus Uncle Mo.

Basically, the same thing happened this past Sunday with the Nick Zito trained three year old; Dialed In. A optional claiming allowance was written for Dialed In which he faced four other runners including his stablemate. In this case, it was the stablemate of Dialed In (Equestrio) winning the race and Dialed In finishing second. This race was by design for Nick Zito since he did not want go straight from his victory in the Holy Bull Stakes (1/30) to the Florida Derby on April 3rd. That would have been nine weeks in between races and since Zito hadn't had luck in the Tampa Bay Derby in the past, this was his only option.

In the Uncle Mo case, a race is need soon for him to get to the first Saturday in May. The trend the past few years is for horses to get only three starts before the Kentucky Derby. With the Wind-Star runner; Brethren, trained by Pletcher pointed to the Tampa Bay Derby off his prep race win over the course, Todd Pletcher did not want his two trainees from different barns facing each other just yet. So, logically it would be fitting if Uncle Mo would return in the Gulfstream race and Brethren race in the Tampa Bay Derby. One other twist is if the race does not full and Uncle Mo races at Tampa Bay, Brethren would then ship to Oaklawn Park for the Rebel Stakes one week from now. Are you as confused yet as I am?

It's seems that the Triple crown trail of prep races always revolve around the Pletcher's and Zito's of the racing world and where their top horses are pointing for. Thus we have these "overnight" written races which seem easier for their runners. It does make things a bit better for the trainers with only one runner pointed toward the Derby. But, with the huge onslaught of prep races all over the country and new way of race preparation by the trainers, one has to check each day where their Kentucky Derby contenders heading. This makes things even more interesting leading up to the first Saturday in May.