2009 Kentucky Derby future pool #1 - "good & bad" plays

This weekend we have the first edition of the 2009 Derby pool and as usual, it has its good plays and bad ones too!

First off, the “all other three year old” entry (#24) which was the 5/2 morning line favorite, is a ridiculous 3/5 as of Thursday evening in day one of the wager. To take any three year old horse pointing to the Kentucky Derby at those odds in February would be crazy. While there is no clear-cut horse pointing to this year’s Kentucky Derby, you have to get at least 10-1 or better on the winner at this time on the derby trail.

Others that look like they are a “bet against” in pool #1 are; Big Drama (#2) who hasn’t been seen his Delta Jackpot victory in December and is rumored to have some physical issues. Midshipman (#11) last year’s Juvenile champion has yet to race in the desert, he deserves a look in pool #2 or #3 after he’s gotten a race in. Notonthesamepage (#12) this runner has the look of a sprinter, rather than a Kentucky Derby or Triple Crown distance horse. Stardom Bound (#18) the Juvenile Filly champion won her seasonal debut as a three year old and now there’s talk of racing her against the boys. First, she would have a prep race versus the boys before even thinking of racing in the Derby. Again, she may look better in the next two pools. The most glaring horse on the list of 23 to go against is This One’s for Phil (#21) The three year old runner is not even nominated to the Triple Crown events. Wagering on him in this first pool would be like throwing money away. The “other” Dubai runner; Vineyard Haven (#22) raced this past Thursday in a prep race pointing for the UAE Derby and offered little in his three year old debut. Later pools may be better for him, but it’s no guarantee he’ll even make it to the Derby.

While those horses named above are “plays against” this next list are one’s who look to have value in this pool. Beethoven (#1) was hampered in his seasonal debut at Gulfstream Park in the Holy Bull Stakes, but raced well for 4th in a wide trip. Currently with odds of 50-1 from the morning line of 15-1 in day #1 of the pool, he has two victories over the Churchill strip and is in good hands with trainer John Ward. Capt. Candyman Can (#3) current odds: 45-1 - won his seasonal debut sprinting at Gulfstream Park and looks to have a tremendous upside with two good trips over the Churchill strip as a two year old. Friesan Fire (#6) current odds: 30-1: has already won two prep races this year, more than any other horse on this list. Doubled from his morning line odds, he is a proven three year old contender already this year. One runner who I’m definitely placing a wager on in this first pool is Hello Broadway (#9) Trained by Barclay Tagg, this half brother to Nobiz Like Showbiz ran second in the Hutcheson Stakes in his seasonal debut. Currently at 56-1, he has a future with his breeding and his ultimate goal; the Kentucky Derby. A longshot play in this first round on a very underrated three year old is West Side Bernie (#23) trained by Kelly Breen. At 43-1 currently from his 50-1 morning line odds, because he’s taking money and has been consistent in all his start earns him respect in pool #1.

Dee Tee Stable update for the new year

This is a reprint of a e-mail I recieved from Steve Byk - Dee Tee Stable creator

FAVORED RAMPILLION DISAPPOINTS AT TURFWAY; BLOODWORK TABS 2 ISSUES

Rampillion turned in a dull effort Wednesday at Turfway, and her being very tired from the race, produced some concern from Chuck. Here is his explanation of the blood tests done and their results:

"We pulled some blood to test Rampillion's blood chemistry after her dull race on Wednesday. The results came back today and showed her with a low red blood count and a very low thyroid level. We will increase her thyroid supplement and give her build-up shots with vitamins and iron, and increase her daily intakes of those nutrients via feed. We will also increase her ulcer medication as occasionally ulcers can cause low blood counts. In about 10 days we will retake these tests to see where her levels are. This will prevent us from running back in two weeks on the 19th."

The upside of this is of course that knowing she wasn't right internally helps explain her non-effort. Diego Rodriguez told Chuck that even though Rampillion warmed up fine, he knew there was a problem shortly after the gates opened when she didn't immediately tug at the rider to say, "Let's go.."

We'll look for a runback in about 4-5 weeks... the first part of March.

ALDEBUTANTE is recovering very nicely from her surgery, and will begin her light rehab work in the about 2 weeks. She will be walked and then begin to work in the Aqua-Pacer before returning to the track for regular training about April 1. We'll hope to kickstart her career by July 1.


KICKIN TO RUN SOON; SUMWON DEFYS ODDS WITH RETURN TO RACETRACK

In other news... Chuck is looking for a spot for KICKIN N SCREAMIN to run. She relished her time off and Bethani White did a wonderful job at Bluegrass Equine Center fattening her up and calming her down. Given the market conditions, Chuck is leaning towards dropping her into a low level claiming race to try and snare a win without her being claimed. Another advantage of trying to slip her through at the lowest claiming level is that it will gain her eligibility for starter allowances where she could be productive.

And in the news that boggles the imagination somewhat, SUMWONLOVESYOU will return to the shed row for active training as soon as Monday, after being on the shelf since September 2006. Now a 5yo mare and having launched Dee Tee Stables 2 years ago, Sumwon has survived too much at this point to not write a great new chapter for all of us. Getting her back to track for a start has the potential to be a great experience. More as things progress with 'SWLY'...


DEE TEE #04 GROUP ALL PROGRESSING

The new horses are all getting their introductions to training too... RUN BURGUNDY, the 3 year old Point Given gelding, will come to the track for his formal breaking. There is no timetable for a start for the big bruising chestnut, but he'll be a turf runner so a spring start is likely. HAROLD CARMICHAEL and THE REDBOARD KING, the Smarty Jones 2 year olds, have begun their racetrack introductions, and our Northern Afleet filly, MISSUS MAYFLOWER, will start her training shortly. Missus Mayflower was going to be named Ello Elle, but The Jockey Club denied us the moniker saying it was to similar sounding to another registered runner.

We have sold just about 50% of the 04 Quartet, and need to fill out the second half over the next 90-120 days as expenses for the 2 year olds training begin to accrue. Partners are invited to bring friends and family along for the experience. Just put them in touch with us at tpkasept@yahoo.com.


NY BRED YEARLING DOING GREAT

The NY bred yearling filly is doing great at Kenny Lejuene's farm in Ocala. Paperwork will go out on her soon, as we'd like to get closer to filling out the 04 group. This filly of course will not turn 2 or be prepared to run until 2010.

This Thursday, February 12, it is the 2nd anniversary of the purchase of Sumwonlovesyou and the 'official' commencement of Dee Tee Stables. Thanks again to everyone for the ongoing support and enthusiasm. As the weather improves, it will give rise to what should be a wildly fun spring and summer for Dee Tee.