Not your typical 3rd weekend in May!

When I'll Have Another crossed the finish line last Saturday evening, it capped off quite a magical two days for your's truly. You see it wasn't your typical third week in May. Last Friday evening, my step daughter; Nicole Wittemeyer who I knew since she was five year's old, got married to the "love of her life" Mark Viscusi in a wonderful ceremony in Rexford at the Edison Club. The beautiful weather was only equaled to the ceremony itself and a good time was had by all. It was a proud moment for me and her mother; Karen, seeing her little girl so happy and grown up. She and Mark had their time in the sun Friday and the beginning of a long and wonderful life together. It was a moment to remember in my life, we don't forget moments like that. The next day was another moment to remember, for the horse racing fan. And this moment is also the beginning of something wonderful, for our sport.

Last week I talked about something that could give thoroughbred racing the shot in the arm it needed. It would set up a magical moment at Belmont Park on June 9th and return the excitement unseen in four years. Unfortunately, the job did not get done in 2008. It also was unsuccessful 11 times before that and was last done in 1978. It was thirty four years ago, when Affirmed won thoroughbred racing's Triple Crown. Many have tried since then and they came up short. In two weeks, it will be the 12th attempt to crown the 12th Triple Crown champion. Will, I'll Have Another be the "lucky" #12 to complete this historic feat?

I stated early on the Triple Crown trail that the class of 2012 could be the best in five years. After the first two legs of this year's Triple Crown, there are two horses that stick out among this class. Their "rivalry" could have been compared to Affirmed and Alydar from 1978, the last time we had a Triple Crown winner. It was an epic two horse race or battle between these two in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. Both times, I'll Have Another ran down the speedy Bodemeister in class ic racehorse fashion. Last Saturday's Preakness Stakes was what thoroughbred racing is all about. The excitement of the Kentucky Derby winner, showing guts and determination versus his foe the second time they met on racing's biggest stage. In defeat, Bodemeister showed he is a courageous fighter paving the way in both Triple Crown races on the front end. He gets a break from the third and final leg; the Belmont Stakes, but will be sure to renew this rivalry later on in the year.

Now, we sit and wait the next two weeks and this wonderful story will continue. The California connections that are so likable and colorful. The unknown jockey from Mexico via Canada , who has now become a household name. And of course; the horse, who is now on a four race win streak and looks to become a legend in a few weeks. These are the things that add up to a wonderful and magical time in our sport, one that is needed and one that will return thoroughbred racing to the headlines for the "right" reasons! So, sit back and enjoy I'll Have Another and his quest to become the 12th Triple Crown winner of thoroughbred racing. It will be a tough road, but it's been fun so far and this writer will be rooting him on. It's not hard to do this with these connections and just MAYBE this time, we will see history being made!

The Preakness....... Derby runners tough to go past, ON TOP!

Today is thoroughbred racing's second leg of the Triple Crown; the Preakness Stakes. Unlike the Kentucky Derby , this race which is a sixteenth of a mile less than the Derby is more predictable with the outcome and payouts much more less. Last year I had my eight year winning streak of cashing a ticket in this race broken and it's a proven fact that horses who raced in the Kentucky have a big edge running back today at Pimlico racetrack. Six of the twenty horses that competed in the Derby , return for this race including the top two finishers. The winner of this race will come from these horses. But, it doesn't hurt looking at the five "new shooters" to spice up your exotic plays and we'll look at the stats of the last fifteen Preakness runnings and how the outcome bodes in the wagering.

The average winning mutual is 4-1 ($10) during this time. The two glaring expectations were last year with Shackleford and in 2006, when the odds-on favorite; Barbaro (1-2) pulled up shortly after the start because of his injury and "new shooter" Bernardini won the race at nearly 13-1. No horse in 29 years has won the Preakness and paid over $31.00 and that was the locally based; Deputed Testimony in 1983. So it's fair to say that the "winner" will come from the Derby raced horses and most likely be under double digit odds.

But, much like the Kentucky Derby runner-up (expect for this year) the Preakness 2nd place finisher does hold value in recent times. The average exacta payouts are over $92, which is good with the recent winners paying under double digits. Twice in the last four years, the runner-up was over 20-1 and the exactas were over $100. The same could be said for the trifectas also, especially often in recent years since "new shooter" seem to sneak into these exotic plays. Also, we will be able to play dime superfectas for the Preakness Stakes. The route to go in this race is to; use the Derby horses in the win spot and sprinkle the plays underneath with double digit runners and some "new shooters".

Thoroughbred racing has really taken it on the chin in recent weeks. The New York Times article on the perception of cruelty in the sport and problems once again with NYRA and New York State . It's seems that the misguided media brings out these things every time around either the Triple Crown races or the start of the Saratoga season. A victory today by I'll Have Another would direct some positive light on the sport we love and give it the due respect of the Sport of Kings. I've said before, the overwhelming access of media today whether via print, television, radio or internet has brought more focus on sports in general today. Add that with the countless number of sports talk shows and sometimes the "facts" get muddled with opinions and agendas out to destroy our sport. Let's give this a rest from today and until after the Belmont Stakes, if I'll Have Another wins the Preakness. Let's get that "Triple Crown" hype in full gear instead of what's wrong with the sport, while we are celebrating our sport's main season. The world today is too complicated with over reaction, misguided information and "trusted" media writers quote; "jumping the gun". Can we just once, enjoy the sport without bringing in down and spoiling it's elegance . I am, sick of what the procession by some is doing to thoroughbred racing with it's reporting. It's sad how people who represent the sport are trying their best to destroy it. Let's stop now, before it's too late and enjoy what's "on track" each and every day!

Mark Hoffman's 2012 graded Preakness Stakes selections

Bodemeister (#7) Smith / Baffert (8-5)

This horse lived up to ALL expectations with a brilliant effort in the Kentucky Derby, set fast fractions and held on for 2nd which was very impressive, Baffert has won this race five times and it's my belief that he's blows this field away without the "bounce" that some people think he'll have!



Daddy Nose Best (#8) Leparoux / Asmussen (12-1)

A late entrant to the race this week, he was no factor in the Derby and disappointed ALL the "wise guys" including me! comes back and I'm willing to forgive that effort giving him another shot today with his old jock back aboard, he'll be the "value" price in this race!



I'll Have Another (#9) Gutierrez / O'Neill (5-2)

The horse I unfortunately overlooked two weeks ago, got the ideal perfect trip from his jockey and was impressive in victory at 15-1, today tries to make it two in a row & possibly head to Belmont looking for the elusive Triple Crown quest, would be no surprise winning today......Ibut, 'm not jumping aboard!



Went the Day Well (#5) Velazquez / Motion (6-1)

He becomes the race's "now horse" off his late close in the Kentucky Derby, visually it was a good effort...... but price wise; he'll be much lower today, he's a definite use in all exotics and also would be no surprise with a victory.



Creative Cause (#6) Rosario / Harrington (6-1)

Even effort in the Derby spite wide trip, he seemed to be over the issues he had leading up the week of the race, with a better trip today from his rider..... he could get a piece at a decent price.



Pretension (#3) Santiago / Grove (30-1)

The locally based runner; this NY bred won over the Pimlico strip on Derby day in a overnight route stake, was no factor in two previous graded stake attempts......but, he's the type of "bomber" that could make your dime superfectas VERY good!



Teeth of the Dog (#2) Bravo / Matz (15-1)

Finished 3rd in the Wood Memorial at 53-1 coming off his Gulfstream Park maiden victory, was no threat to the top two finishers in that race and is his trainer's replacement here for Union Rags, still may improve off that effort.



Zetterholm (#4) Alvarado / Dutrow (20-1)

Another NY bred has faced statebred company in all five of his career starts, beat four other runners last start in restricted company, the water gets deep today for this talented son of Silver Train.



Cozzetti (#11) Lezcano / Romans (30-1)

Even race and was no factor in the Arkansas Derby at 32-1 in last start, only victory was in a sloppy off-the-turf maiden race at Churchill Downs last Fall, connections are taking a stab in this race.



Optimizer (#10) Nakatani / Lukas (30-1)

No factor in the Kentucky Derby for Hall of Fame trainer, don't know why his connections STILL think that this horse is meant for dirt, just a filler here.



Tiger Walk (#1) Desormeaux / Correas (30-1)

Has been no factor in all three graded stakes appearances at Aqueduct this past spring, gets blinkers on today and tough inside post.

Lessons WE have learned from Kentucky Derby 138!

When the longshot winner of Kentucky Derby 138 - I'll Have Another; crossed the finish line, it meant the record I have for choosing correctly the "Run for the Roses" winner was now (4-28) and five years since Street Sense (my top pick) was victorious. He wasn't on my radar at all, which I'll explain with my "lessons learned" for this year's "big" race.

The winner; I'll Have Another went off at "fair" odds in my opinion (15-1). The son of Flower Alley (2005 Jim Dandy & Travers winner at Saratoga ) had a five month break between being unplaced in the sloppy Hopeful Stakes and his 43-1 victory in the Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, early in February. This was my 1st strike in picking against him. There is a old saying; "If you missed the wedding, don't go to the funeral" and he was a longshot that time and should be again, even if he did win the Santa Anita Derby by a nose in his next start at 4-1. Reason #2 - his jock; Mario Gutierrez lack of experience in stakes races, especially one this big! In reality, he fits this colt like a glove (2 for 2 on him) and only had ridden at Santa Anita Park and Hastings Park in Canada before his Derby win at Churchill Downs . Reason #3 - the second to far outside post with the jock experience and longshot pricing leading up to the race, he was a "play" against. He is your typical "horse I leave out of the mix" runner that's overlooked and not on my ticket.

Runner up finisher; Bodemeister ran the race of his life as the post time lukewarm favorite. He lived up to every expectation. Setting all the fast fractions while pressured by the other speed in the race, he gallantly hung on for second place. Much like Curlin from five years ago, this colt has a bright future and if he wheels back next week in the Preakness Stakes......he'll be the favorite. I will use him in the exotics again.

Third and fourth place finishers; Dullahan & Went the Day Well were logical horses to use underneath for triples and superfectas. The 3rd place finisher; had his usual late kick, but it seems he is more effective on turf or polytrack than the dirt surface at Churchill Downs . The Graham Motion / John Velazquez trainee was quite impressive with blinkers on and big middle move in closing late. This horse will be in my top 3 next week at Pimlico and has bright future ahead also.

As for the "also rans" that I selected; my top pick Union Rags, lost all chance at the beginning and had another questionable ride from Julian Leparoux. It was a wonder that he even finished as well as he did for 7th place. He'll be skipping the Preakness and pointing toward the Belmont Stakes where he could be a factor.....with a better ride! My runner-up horse; Daddy Nose Best was no factor at all. Another "wise guy" horse who failed to live up to expectations. Both Todd Pletcher runners; Gemologist and El Padrino were no shows too. It was especially disappointing with Gemologist, who I took a liking to late last week.

Of the twenty horses in the Kentucky Derby , less than half will attempt the second leg of racing's Triple Charm next week. Sometimes a "new shooter" will play a part in the race, but the best of those new faces will be running in the Peter Pan Stakes today at Belmont Park ( The Lumber Guy). Overall, plenty of horses had rough trips and other than the top five finishers......none did any running late. I still think that this group is a great crop of three year old runners. But, improved has to be shown by the also-ran runners next week and the weeks to come.

The Kentucky Derby....... there is money to be made!!!!

The biggest single race of the year, by many standards is upon us; the "First Saturday in May" - the Kentucky Derby . For myself, it will be the 26th that I've wagered on. The first year was 1986, which also was the last time a horse won from post position #1. Only three other horses from there have finished in the money all, third. This is just one of the Kentucky Derby tidbits that I'll be discussing this week.

In the last 33 years (since 1979) only four favorites were victorious. There was a 21 year gap between Spectacular Bid in 1979 and Fusaichi Pegasus in 2001. Big Brown was the only favorite to paid under double digits in that time frame ($6.80). This year, favoritism will most likely fall between Bodemeister and Union Rags (4-1 & 9-2 on the morning line). It's possible that one of these two colts may pay under $10.00, but won't be a short price as Big Brown was four years ago. The average win mutual the since I played my first Kentucky Derby has been nearly 14-1. This high odds average may be a result of two horses (Giacomo & Mine That Bird) going off 50-1 during this time period. It's worth a flyer taking a longshot in this mile and a quarter test.

It's not necessarily a given that the "favorite" runs second in this race either. Only four times since 1986, has the favorite run second (Easy Goer, Prairie Bayou, Captain Bodgit & Empire Maker). So, much like I construct my selections; it pays to use a square priced horse in the runner-up position in this race. Horses running in the show position have been a price in recent results with the last favorite Indian Charlie running 3rd in 1998. All these results mean one thing, BIG, BIG payouts in the exotics.

The payouts for the exactas, triples and superfectas have been the way to make your racing season. The average exacta payout - $765.00 and since the mutual field was abolished in 2001, the payout has been; $1,445. Again, when you take into consideration that there have been two 50-1 shots winning the Derby , you can see why these payouts are so big. The next two stats could be considered " life changing" results. The average triple has been just over $14,000 and superfecta, a whopping $102,000. It's probably a good idea to throw in "longshot" in the fourth superfecta position, because 7 out of the 8 four place finishers have been over 23-1 or more.

Other things to keep in mine when wagering on the Kentucky Derby are; only one two year old champion since the Breeder's Juvenile has been contested, has won the Kentucky Derby (Street Sense). Dead closers figure in major payouts also in the top four, with 5 in the last 6 years between odds of 24-1 and 50-1. Horses prepping at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas have placed in the superfecta plays the last eight straight years. You don't necessarily have to win your final prep race to win the Run for the Roses. Less than half (10) have done that the past 25 years. But, no horse finishing 5th or worst has won in that same time period. It's been nine years since a Wood Memorial placed runner has won the Derby, a combine 0 for 16 since Funny Cide and Empire Maker ran one / two in 2003. The latest trend has been, only two starts as a three year old before the Derby . The past five winners have done this. There is a lot of speed entered to this year's Derby . Ten year's ago was the last "wire to wire" winner (War Emblem) and there have been only five others since 1966. And don't look for a "photo" finish result, that last one was in 1999 between Charismatic and Menifee. The last seven Derby were won by 2 lengths or more. This is a little "food for thought" when wagering today, good luck to all and let's make some money!

Mark Hoffman's 2012 graded Kentucky Derby selections

Union Rags (#4) Leparoux / Matz (9-2)

I've been impressed with this son of Dixie Union since his authoritative victory in last Fall's Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park.... my "best bet" in last year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile he, endure a very wide trip and still finished gamely.... this year he had a brilliant return in the Fountain of Youth & troubled trip in the Florida Derby.... today he makes amends for that last start and duplicates what his former barn mate; Barbaro did six years ago.

Daddy Nose Best (#10) Gomez / Asmussen (15-1)

The most experienced colt in the field, he comes into the race off of a closing victory in the Sunland Derby earning a triple digit Beyer speed figure (100) only three other horse have this year.... considered by some as the "now" horse going into the race....training "lights out" at Churchill, he is a proven winner on all three surfaces (dirt, synthetic & turf).

Bodemeister (#6) Smith / Baffert (4-1)

The "new kid" on the block, this lightly raced son of Empire Maker became the "horse to beat" with his impressive victory in the Arkansas Derby.... with only four career starts and NOT raced as a two year old, he has a LOT to overcome in winning this race.... five year's ago, Curlin tried it & was NOT successful.... but became a champion horse after this race, remember this for down the road!

Gemologist (#15) Castellano / Pletcher (6-1)

This son of Tiznow is undefeated, a perfect 5 for 5 coming off a gutsy win in the Wood Memorial.... has the credentials to win this race, but will be tested today against the toughest field he has faced yet.... would be no surprise at a square price.

El Padrino (#16) Bejarano / Pletcher (20-1)

Kind of the forgotten horse after his dull effort in the Florida Derby with a non-threatening 4th last time out....winner of the Risen Star Stakes two starts back in a gutsy effort, I have a feeling that he'll bounce back good today and at a nice price!

Creative Cause (#8) Rosario / Harrington (12-1)

This gray son of Giant's Causeway has been a gem of consistency this year, narrowly missing last time out in the Santa Anita Derby.... raced with blinkers OFF last time out and raced an even 3rd over this strip last Fall behind my top pick.... love his 12-1 morning line odds & may get over looked in the wagering.

Alpha (#11) Maragh / McLaughlin (15-1)

Godolphin racing only Derby contender this year, he comes off a even 2nd behind Gemologist last time out in the Wood Memorial.... soon after had an infection that force him to ship late to Churchill.....nice workout in NY signals he's over that issue....this smallish colt always puts forward a good effort though.

Take Charge Indy (#3) Borel / Byrne (15-1)

Wire to wire winner of the Florida Derby last time out.... lightly raced this year, gets the "Derby" master in the reins and draws near the inside.... I have a feeling he'll be a pace factor along with all the other speed horses entered....question is how much he'll have left in the stretch drive?

Went the Day Well (#13) Velazquez / Motion (20-1)

This runner comes from the same connections who won this race last year and also took the same path getting here (Spiral Stakes victory at Turfway Park), the difference here is that this colt has had two victories over a dirt surface.....faces tougher competition today.

Dullahan (#5) Desormeaux / Romans (8-1)

Winner of the Blue Grass Stakes last time out at Keeneland on the polytrack surface.... mirrors another Romans runner from a few year's back named; Paddy O'Prado and like him, seems much suited for turf or synthetic surface.... may be a triple factor or superfecta play at best.

I'll Have Another (#19) Gutierrez / O'Neill (12-1)

Upset winner of the RB Lewis Stakes, two starts back at 43-1.... came right back to win the Santa Anita Derby by a nose.... jock's first Kentucky Derby & must negotiate far outside post..... it's been 15 years since the winner of the Santa Derby has won this race.

Hansen (#14) Dominguez / Maker (10-1)

This nearly white runner has been the darling of the racing world ever since his Breeder's Cup Juvenile victory last Fall here at Churchill Downs....a proven front runner, he'll mix it up with a lot of other speed today..... I question whether he'll get the mile and a quarter distance, STILL.

Sabercat (#18) Nakatani / Asmussen (30-1)

Oldest experience runner of the group with a debut last May as a two year old.... lightly raced this year and improved in his second start off the bench with a 3rd in the Arkansas Derby..... could spice up your exotic bets at a price!

Optimizer (#2) Court / Lukas (50-1)

Late addition to the field for Hall of Fame trainer; D.Wayne Lukas..... everything about this horse, screams out GRASS.... but, it is the master and could cluck up for a piece in the superfectas at a huge price..... other than that, not much to recommend!

Prospective (#12) Contreras / Casse (30-1)

Canadian based invader, won the Tampa Bay Derby two starts back & was no factor last time out on the polytrack at Keeneland in the Blue Grass Stakes.... his race in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile last here was awful....don't know what to make of him today.

Daddy Long Legs (#1) O'Donoghue / O'Brien (30-1)

Won the UAE Derby on a synthetic surface in Dubai and shipped over for this..... his Breeder's Cup Juvenile race here wasn't good & draws the dreaded inside post today..... a non-factor for me on all levels.

Done Talking (#17) Russell / Smith (50-1)

Dead closer won at 12-1 versus a suspect field in the Illinois Derby, nice Mid Atlantic based colt seems to be a second tier runner and faces a tough group today.

Rousing Sermon (#7) Lezcano / Hollendorfer (50-1)

No factor 3rd in the Louisiana Derby, his two victories were against California breds.... "Derby fever" horse in my opinion.

Liaison (#20) Garcia / Baffert (50-1)

Shown nothing in his three starts this year.....draws "killer" post 20..... not sure why he is even in this race!

Trinniberg (#9) Martinez / Parboo (50-1)

This horse is a nice three year old sprinter...... SPRINTER!!!! it's very sad that he is even entered here.