Some good ones have tried ........ just to come up short

There have been twelve thoroughbreds since 1978 that attempted to complete the three race sweep of racing's Triple Crown. I'll take a look at the last ten horses who couldn't win the final leg. The reason I'm just looking at this group is that I began watching racing in 1986 and didn't follow the sport as closely before that. As stated in last week's column, the 1979 effort of Spectacular Bid while not very good in the Belmont Stakes, he did become one of the best thoroughbreds to race the last 40 years when he finished his career out. Also, since I'll Have Another did not race in the 2012 edition of this race, he never had a chance of winning the Triple Crown in my opinion.

In 1987, two horses battled throughout the three Triple Crown races. Alysheba who entered the Kentucky Derby that year with just a maiden victory ( he was disqualified from first in the Bluegrass Stakes, his final prep race) won the Derby with a rough trip and Bet Twice was the runner-up. They ran one/two in the Preakness and three week's later, Bet Twice left Alysheba in the dust. Alysheba could not race on the medication, Lasix in New York because it was not allowed at that time period. Alysheba went on to a great racing career, but a lack of a certain medication derailed him from eternity with his Belmont Stakes try.

Two years later, another epic battle between two great horses played out and once again, things didn't work out as planned for the first two legged winner. It was east versus west with Sunday Silence and Easy Goer in 1989. Sunday Silence got the best of his rival on a muddy track the First Saturday in May and two week's later out dueled his nemesis in a photo finish at Old Hilltop. But, at the friendly confines of Belmont Park, the horse some dubbed "the new Big Red" showed why he was "New York's ~ Easy Goer" with an overwhelming victory in the Test of Champions".

Now, eight years have past and Bob Baffert had his first runner going for the Triple Crown; Silver Charm. He began a rivalry with a fellow California runner; Free House in the first two legs of the Triple Charm. Much like this year, the 1997 Triple Crown series was most formful. A "new shooter" though would upset the apple cart in the final leg in the Belmont. While everyone's attention was on Silver Charm and Free House, it was the runner with a troubled trip in the Preakness who got the money in the end. Touch Gold ran down Silver Charm late and upset his Triple Charm bid. After that, the often foot problem runner never lived up to his expectations and in the end, Silver Charm did become the more successful horse of the two.

One year later, in the most exciting renewal of the Belmont Stakes to date, Real Quiet and Victory Gallop brought back the rivalry of 1987 and 1989 dueling foes. Real Quiet upset his stable mate; Indian Charlie in the Derby and came back two week's later to defeat his runner-up opponent; Victory Gallop in the Preakness. Going into the Belmont Stakes, the chance of a Triple Crown winner wasn't as big publicly as the three previous tries with Alysheba, Sunday Silence and Silver Charm. It seemed that Real Quiet was the forgotten horse trying to accomplish this feat. But, there were no disappointments on June 6th, 1998 when Real Quiet looked like a winner at the eighth pole, only to lose the head bob to Victory Gallop who finished behind him twice. It was the most exciting end of a Triple Crown race since Affirmed beat Alydar in the 1978 classic. But to the dismay of thoroughbred horse racing fans, the Triple Crown would go unclaimed for the 21st year.
These four attempts from 1987 to 1998 were the real testament to the Triple Crown series. Although there would be six more attempts right up until last year, the Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm and Real Quiet races were what made the thrill of this series so great. Next week, I'll look at the next six attempts. We'll see longshot contenders who made it big, fan favorites and one horse who fooled EVERYBODY but your's truly!

And so it begins AGAIN ....... the Quest for the Triple Crown!

We've seen this movie before, horse wins two of the biggest races in the world. The hype begins the moment the race is official, the comparisons begin with past horses trying to accomplish the same feat. A story that has been well known since 1978, the last time a thoroughbred won the Triple Crown. A large group have tried and all have failed. Some horses were very talented and became household names in the future. But, there were others that just are remembered as winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, then nothing else. This story never gets old and unfortunately always seems to disappoint.

There has been twenty year gap between Citation in 1948 and the great Secretariat in 1973. We had three Triple Crown winners in a six year span in the 70's and since then, none. Lucky 13 have tried since Affirmed in 1978, although with I'll Have Another scratching the day before in 2012, I don't count him as one of them. I wasn't following racing before 1985, so the failure of Spectacular Bid in 1979 and Pleasant Colony in 1981 wasn't something I remembered. Although, I believe that Spectacular Bid was the "best" horse never to win the Crown, based on his racing record after the Triple Crown and his career. Last Saturday, when the skies opened up and the rain came, American Pharoah cemented himself as the next horse to try the bid.

He is the fourth Bob Baffert trained horse attempting this feat. Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998 and War Emblem in 2002 were his three runners who came up one race short from being part of history. In two weeks, his two year old champion from last year will try to go where others have failed. This horse has been well thought of ever since he won Del Mar Futurity early last Fall. After a short two year old campaign, his trainer waited until mid-March to make his three year old debut at Oaklawn Park and on a sloppy sealed track no less. That should have been the key for anyone wagering on him last Saturday. He was the only runner who proved he could handle the slop and that made him tough to beat in the Preakness.

So, now the debate begins whether he'll become the twelve horse to accomplished this feat. There have been some good horses who have try, and then others who just got lucky in the first two legs. It's a grueling trek, three races in five weeks. Three races at three different classic distances and also at three different tracks. A tough task for any horse, especially a young three year old runner. But, is this year any different than the past other 13 other horses who tried before?

Disappointing has been the normal for the sport when it comes to the Triple Crown. Since I've been following the sport, it's become a common thing. Back in 1998, I said to myself that Real Quiet getting beat at the wire would be the closest I would see a Triple Crown winner while handicapping the sport. Six year's later, Smarty Jones in 2004 was undefeated and captured the sport with fans who knew nothing about the horse racing. He too got run down late and never raced again after his Belmont Stakes attempt. Then there was Big Brown in 2008, the horse I loved to hate. He proved to be the fraud I thought he was when he was "pulled up" at the top of the stretch and did not finish the race. Finally, after being disappointed the day before the 2012 edition when I'll Have Another was scratched when I was going to my first Belmont Stakes and last year, when the popular California Chrome failed, I have lost all hope to see a Triple Crown winner in the rest of my lifetime.

So, will I jump on the bandwagon of horse that I didn't give much of a chance in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness? Will I try to beat him with the "fresh" horses that didn't race in the first two legs or skipped the Preakness? Or will I just succumb along with the masses and coronate American Pharoah as the next Triple Crown winner and greatest horse of our generation. Well, I got two weeks to figure it out and even then, I won't make any guarantees!

Eating "chalk" again ...... the PREAKNESS Stakes

We've reached the second leg of the Triple Crown; the Preakness Stakes at "Old Hilltop" Pimlico Racetrack in Baltimore, Maryland. A race that is a sixteenth of a mile shorter than the mile and a quarter Kentucky Derby, it is the most formful of the three Triple Crown races. The average winning mutual in the last 15 running's of this race is $11.00. Also in the last 15 editions of the Preakness, the Kentucky Derby winner was only out-of-the-money 4 times (Monarchos 6th ~ Barbaro DNF ~ Super Saver 8th ~ Orb 4th). The Preakness winner has produced 12 of the last 15 three year old champions and the Derby winner has been favored in 11 of the last 15 running's of the Preakness. This race is one of the most easiest to predict off these stats. With the consistent formful races that this year's class of sophomores have had, things should be no different today.

Eight three year olds are entered today, only three "new shooters" and five who contested the Kentucky Derby. The field can clearly be cut in half, three longshot newcomers (Bohisattva, Divining Rod, Tale of Verve) and the annual Lukas longshot runner (Mr. Z) and the four of the top 5 Derby finishers (Danzig Moon, Dortmund, Firing Line, American Pharoah). We've discussed about how favorites had dominated all the Triple Crown prep races and Kentucky Derby. It's highly likely with the history of this race for the last 15 years that this trend will remain the same. So, if you are looking for a big price payout for today's race, you'll get the yearbook quote from my late friend; Frank Colvin; "Not here pal!".

My take on the race is simple, one of two Bob Baffert horses will win. Unlike in the Kentucky Derby where it's unusual that horses finishing one / two are trained by the same trainer, in the Preakness with this shorter field, the best two horses stand tall over the rest of the group. Some have said that the post position of the Baffert runners drawing the two inside posts will hurt them. I strongly disagree, if American Pharoah is as good as people think he is, he'll overcome post one. I know anything can happen in this shorter field in the Preakness, but class out weighs their opponents ability. If I'm forgetting second place runner up in the Derby; Firing Line, it's all by design for me. Firing Line ran a great race, chasing Dortmund and getting out finished by American Pharoah. But he looked very leg worry the last eighth of a mile and was leaning on the winner near the finish. I think he regresses on the two week turn around and will be my play against in the top two spots.

Structuring your exotic plays will be the key here. I find it tough to separate the Baffert runners and will go with my Derby pick; Dortmund to turn the tables on his stablemate today. I'll go on record now and say that Bob Baffert wins the Triple Crown, only with two different horses. After today, he'll have the first two legs of the Triple Crown, the question is which runner will it be? With that said, a American Pharoah victory means Triple Crown mania for the Belmont Stakes three weeks from now. The crazy frenzy will descend on NYRA and they got a plan, limit the amount of people attending the Belmont Stakes to 90,000 people. That's saying that they (NYRA) can't handle the previous crowds that gather for past Triple Crown tries. I know first hand that they couldn't last year, especially after the races were over in regards to people exiting Belmont Park. But those problems can be handled with better planning and not limiting the attendance. Just another reason to stay away if there is a Triple Crown bid. But that only matter with a American Pharoah victory today, and that's a 50/50 chance in my opinion.

Mark Hoffman's 2015 graded Preakness selections

Dortmund (#2) Garcia / Baffert (7-2)

the formerly undefeated son of Big Brown tasted defeat for the first time tiring in the stretch after being on the engine from the start in the Kentucky Derby, expect him again to be on the lead and fight it out tooth and nail as they head for home, I STILL believe this colt is better than his stablemate.

American Pharoah (#1) Espinoza / Baffert (4-5)

proved best in the Run for the Roses as many expected, now comes to Baltimore as the odds-on favorite and the "horse to beat", draws the inside and really had the perfect trip in the Derby, would be surprised if he didn't fire...... but not if his stablemate turns the tables today.

Danzig Moon (#4) Leparoux / Casse (15-1)

had an even trip for 5th in the Derby at 22-1, this Canadian bred wheels back for our second leg Triple Crown with even bigger sights on the Queen's Plate at Woodbine; their Kentucky Derby, can't see him winning but can get a piece at a price.

Firing Line (#8) Stevens / Callaghan (4-1)

gutsy runner up in the Derby with a garden trip stalking the speed sitting second, draws the better post here than the Baffert duo, my main concern is how tired he was getting late in the race and leaning on the eventual Derby winner, he's my play against in this spot and think he'll regress with the quick two week turn around.

Bohisattva (#6) McCarthy / Corrales (20-1)

nearly went wire to wire in the Federico Tesio Stakes here at Pimlico in the prep for this race, in his only graded stakes try was 115-1 and no factor, it would be very enlightening if this colt won today and would take the Old Hilltop crowd "by the hand".

Divining Rod (#7) Castellano / Delacour (12-1)

nice victory in last start at Keeneland in the grade III ~ Lexington Stakes, skipped the Derby for this spot, marks the first time for Lael Stables returning to the Preakness since their proudest runner; Barbaro broke down in the 2006 running.

Tale of Verve (#5) Rosario / Stewart (30-1)

broke maiden in last starting going this same distance, that was in his sixth try, steps way up today.

Mr. Z (#3) Nakatani / Lukas (20-1)
what would a Triple Crown race be without a hopelessly over matched D.Wayne Lukas runner, privately purchased on Wednesday by the "new" Calumet Farm for this race.

The new trend ........ favorites winning the Run for Roses

Everybody likes the "underdog", the team who always wins is less popular. In thoroughbred racing, everyone wants the "longshot", nobody makes money with the favorite. It was twenty one straight years from 1979 until 2000 that the post time favorite did not win the Kentucky Derby. In the last 15 years since then, we've had seven and three straight in a row. The trend of "favorites don't win the derby" has changed. While a few have been lukewarm favorites (Smarty Jones, Street Sense, Orb) others like Fusiachi Pegasus, Big Brown and most recent winners; California Chrome and American Pharoah have paid under $10.00.

When American Pharoah crossed the line first last Saturday evening, the trend of winning favorites was extended in the race. Not only in the Kentucky Derby have we seen the parade of "chalk" reach the winners circle, but it has been this way the entire Triple Crown trail in the prep races leading up to this race. As stated in a previous column, the 25 major prep races since January of this year produced a $6.40 paying mutual. As the favorite once again, American Pharoah paid $7.80 just under 3-1 odds. Many predicted he would be the post time favorite and even drifted up a bit from his lower odds when wagering started on Friday afternoon. It came down between him and entry mate; Dortmund who was the second solid choice at a little over 4-1. These two along with Firing Line who was fourth in wagering and you had three of the four runners under double digits. This meant low exotic payouts, something we aren't used to in the Kentucky Derby.

The exacta ($72.60) was the smallest since 2004, 11 years ago when another favorite; Smarty Jones won and Lion Heart who chased him around the track was second. Even more low were the two other payouts that usually command big prices in this race. The trifecta of 18-10-8 was the lowest paying triple in twenty years ($202.00). A wager that has huge payouts was averaging over $2,400 in the last seven straight Kentucky Derbies. Even the superfecta which has average $90,000 on the one dollar wager since it's inception to the race in 1996, was less than 1,000 ($634) second lowest ever. A let down to most people wagering on this racing, which you are usually well rewarded for. In a full field of thoroughbreds with usually has the most of any race during the year, big prices are the norm. This year, that was the biggest disappointment.

Even though the 2015 Kentucky Derby wasn't the money maker everyone loves, it did prove that this group of three year olds is a good one. Both Baffert runners did not disappoint and runner-up Firing Line (who took late money) produced a very chalky outcome. Unfortunately also, the race was settle at the top of the stretch with these three horses. Frosted closed late and only other horse worth mentioning was Materiality, who had a bad break at the start and finished well spite his trip. This unfortunately doesn't spell well for the second leg of the Triple Crown; the Preakness Stakes. Only the top three in the money finishers and possibly Danzig Moon (5th) Carpe Diem (10th) and Mr. Z (13th) are the only returnees for Baltimore. New shooters Divining Rod (1st ~ Lexington Stakes) and Bodhisattva (1st ~ Federico Teso Stakes) are the only definites. Todd Pletcher who usually doesn't have many Preakness runners, may also race; Stanford or Competitive Edge both who have shown speed in their last starts.

The next leg of the Triple Crown always is noted for smaller payouts, that's the norm. But now we can add the Kentucky Derby as a race where predictability is a common thing, at least this year. The good thing about predictability though, the horses doing that are the good ones. And that is good for the sport.

Baffert's Dynamic Duo & Miguel Mena ........ Kentucky Derby 2015

Today mark's the 17th year of my column with the Recorder, AT THE POST. I started this column on the day of the 124th running of the Kentucky Derby, May 2nd 1998. It was the first writing of any sort since my high school days, 17 years earlier. That year, trainer Bob Baffert was coming off a victory in this race one year earlier with Silver Charm and a nose defeat in 1996 with Cavonnier. A field of 15 were entered and once again, Bob Baffert had the lukewarm favorite in Indian Charlie at 5-2. He was coming off a victory in the Santa Anita Derby that year and was a strong contender to give Baffert his second consecutive Derby winner. Two year old champion; Favorite Trick was the second choice with a Lukas and Zito horses rounding out the top four wagering favorites. But, it was the other Bob Baffert trainee; Real Quiet who went off at 8-1 and over looked in the wagering that proved the best that year.

We fast forward to this year and Mr. Baffert is going as strong as ever and has another unbeatable entry in this year's running. Possibly even better than in 1998 and maybe the strongest 1/2 punch in recent memory. Last year's two year old juvenile champion; American Pharoah and the undefeated Dortmund are Baffert's dynamic duo versus 18 other runners in this year's edition. It's very tough to separate these two thoroughbreds. Dortmund is a massive son of Big Brown who hasn't tasted defeat and is coming off a dominate victory in the Santa Anita Derby. American Pharoah has reeled off four straight victories and a equally impressive victory to Dortmund's in the Arkansas Derby. So, who should deserve favoritism at 6:34pm on Saturday evening?

Back in 1998, the one Baffert runner (Indian Charlie) was the lukewarm favorite, while Real Quiet the eventual winner was really over looked at won at a price ($18.80). This year, Baffert's duo are very hard to separate either runner in the wagering. Logically one would lean toward the undefeated runner; Dortmund, especially off his impressive Santa Anita Derby. But, the case can be made for American Pharoah who won the Arkansas Derby by coming slightly off the pace for the first time and had an amazing workout last Sunday. The post position draw had little impact on who should be favorite also. Although, I think Dortmund had drawn a slightly better post at 8 than American Pharoah who will have to negotiate from outside in post 18. Even though, American Pharoah showed a new dimension by not needing the lead to win in his last start, Dortmund who had won several close races, drew off with ease by nearly five lengths in his final prep victory in California.

I have these two dead even on talent, but will lean toward the undefeated runner; Dortmund. He should be the slight favorite over American Pharoahin my opinion. But, I'll bet any money that American Pharoah in the end will be the favorite. My prediction will be he is 5-2 at post time and Dortmund at 3-1 or slightly better. But, I'll go on record right now and say if Dortmund is anywhere near a $10 payout mutual that I will make my largest win wager on a horse in 29 years of playing the ponies. That amount will be over the $20 mark, that's how confident I am with Dortmund winning this year's Running of the Roses!

I also have a sentimental pick for this year's Derby, who will be a square price even though this horse has won three straight races. International Star (#12) trained by Mike Maker swept all three prep races at the Fairgrounds in Louisiana this winter. He's a talented runner with a chance, but it's his jockey who I'll be rooting for. Miguel Mena who is based on the Kentucky circuit, will have his first ever Kentucky Derby mount today and is well known to me. Back in 2010, nearly five year's ago during the Saratoga meet, our racing outfit; Dee Tee Stables were looking for a jockey to ride our second time starter two year old; Ausable Chasm. Our racing manager; Steve Byk was in the press office and ran into Miguel who had ridden our Kickin' N Screamin' at Kentucky Downs the previous year. When Steve asked him if he wanted to ride Auasble Chasm in that maiden race, he replied "yes, thank you very much!". Well, the result was our first ever victory at Saratoga for our barn and a moment I'll never forget. Today this talented young rider has a big chance on a very "live" runner in his first Kentucky Derby. I'll be cheering him on for this chance of a lifetime.

Mark Hoffman's 2015 graded Kentucky Derby selections

Dortmund (#8) Garcia / Baffert (3-1)
this gigantic son of Big Brown is a perfect six for six in his career, he dominated his opponents with ease in the Santa Anita Derby and has showed a mental gameness when headed in his races, can stalk or be on the lead and gets the perfect post for today's race, if he is anywhere near 4-1 at post time, I'll have my BIGGEST win wager of all time!

Carpe Diem (#2) Velazquez / Pletcher (8-1)
since his highly touted debut last summer at Saratoga, he finished 2nd only once in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile with a wide trip, draws the tough inside slot and Johnny V. will need him to break alertly to have any chance at all, I have like this runner and have him covered in many future wagers.

Frosted (#15) Rosario / McLaughlin (15-1)
bounced back solidly with a two length victory in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct last time out, other than his 4th place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park, he has been very consistent in his seven career races, this stalking type will be a square price.

International Star (#12) Mena / Maker (20-1)
this NY bred son of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus swept the three prep races at the Fairgrounds this past winter, a versatile runner has won on all three racing surfaces (dirt, grass, polytrack), I have a rooting interest on this horse because of his jockey; Miguel Mena with his first Derby mount and winning our first race for Dee Tee Stables at Saratoga in 2010 with Ausable Chasm.

Far Right (#20) Smith / Moquett (30-1)
void of any speed this dead closer got up for 2nd versus American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby, the post position doesn't hurt this runner and has a victory plus a second & third over the Churchill Downs strip, the past two running of this race has had the favorites win and two longshots get the runner up spot, this is your longshot to use underneath the favorites this year.

American Pharoah (#18) Espinoza / Baffert (5-2)
the reigning two year old eclipse champion of last year will be the first colt since Street Sense in 2007 to win the Kentucky Derby, ran a monster race in the Arkansas Derby last time out when coming off the pace, makes third start off his Fall layoff and had a impressive work a few days ago, he'll be the post time favorite and I'll try to beat him today.

Mubtaahij (#6) Soumillion / de Kock (20-1)
has become the "wise guy" horse with many after his impressive victory in the UAE Derby at Meydan racecourse in Dubai, always very cautious with these type runners and will not be racing on lasix today, may be over bet off his credentials, unknown factor.
Firing Line (#11) Stevens / Callaghan (12-1)
won the Sunland Park Derby by over 14 lengths as the odds-on favorite last time out, previous to that impressive victory he was lost to Dortmund by only a head two times in a row, expect him to be attending the pace.

Upstart (#19) Ortiz / Violette (15-1)
another NY bred, chased Materiality around the track in the second spot during most of the Florida Derby, has been a consistent colt so far in his career, but question whether he has what it takes to get the job going a mile and a quarter distance from such an outside post.

Materiality (#3) Castellano / Pletcher (12-1)
lightly raced undefeated son of Afleet Alex won the Florida Derby in nearly wire to wire style, broke his maiden on January 11th of this year making him unraced as a two year old, no Kentucky Derby winner since 1882 has won without racing as a juvenile.

Danzig Moon (#5) Leparoux / Casse (30-1)
finished a distant 2nd behind Carpe Diem in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in last, his running style could come into play late in the race and could clunk up for a piece at a price.

Tencendur (#4) Franco / Weaver (30-1)
had the lead in mid-stretch at 21-1 in the Wood Memorial, the third NY bred in this field may be attending the pace and will be huge price in this field.

Itsaknockout (#13) Saez / Pletcher (30-1)
his claim to fame was being placed 1st in the Fountain of Youth Stakes via a questionable disqualification of Upstart in that race, in his next start was beaten 21 lengths in the Florida Derby, horses don't usually do well off efforts like that in the Kentucky Derby.

War Story (#16) Talamo / Amoss (50-1)
ran behind International Star three times at the Fairgrounds this past winter, broke maiden here at Churchill in debut at 14-1.

Ocho Ocho Ocho (#1) Trujillo / Cassidy (50-1)

hasn't regained his two year old form in both starts this year, was on the fence in even running today and draws the dreaded inside post!

Bolo (#9) Bejarno / Gaines (30-1)

finished third behind Dortmund in his two and only starts on a dirt surface, can't see any improvement today in a 20 horse field.

Keen Ice (#14) Desormeaux / Romans (50-1)

this runner lacks any early foot and really has been no factor since breaking his maiden here last summer, that was his only career win.

Mr. Z (#17) Vazquez / Lukas (50-1)

has the most career starts of this field (12) with just a maiden victory to show for it, has the tendency to bore out in the stretch drive on several occasions, no horse has won from this post (17) ever!

Frammento (#21) Nakatani / Zito (50-1)
he's the first horse in history to draw into the race off the also eligible list, this Nick Zito runner has no speed either and comes from the clouds, big price with little chance in the win spot.