The filly counterpart of the Derby ...... 2014 Spa dates ...... the Derby Trial

Since this column got back into full swing a little over a month ago, we've been focusing on the Kentucky Derby preps and the horses who will get a spot in the starting gate of twenty. With all the preps finished and the field set, my focus this week will be the "other" big race the day before. The female counterpart to the Kentucky Derby is the Kentucky Oaks on the first Friday of May, going the mile and a eighth distance. Unlike the Derby, only 14 can reach the starting gate and of course the distance is an eighth of a mile shorter. While California Chrome looks to be the "horse to beat" in the Derby, I can't take him at a "odds-on" price. But in the Oaks, the favorite looks to be all of that and a short price. Untapable, trained by Steve Asmussen goes into the race with two solid, open length victories at the Fairgrounds this winter in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes and Fairgrounds Oaks, both at a mile and sixteenth. Both wins totaled over 17 lengths and not another of the other 13 hopefuls have had to two races compared to her. Untapable can sit close to the pace, which will include speed horses like; Fashion Plate, My Miss Sophia and Sugar Shock. I'll be looking to use closers underneath her like; Rosalind, Ria Antonia and Got Lucky. The latter; Got Lucky may have a big shot to upset at a price. Runner-up to Untapable two starts back at the Fairgrounds and recently second best at Aqueduct behind My Miss Sophia in the Gazelle, she has already been this distance last Fall as a two year old in the Demoiselle losing my just a neck. So with this the last column before the Derby, I'll give my early Oaks picks today with; Untapable - Got Lucky - Aurelia's Belle as my play.

Speaking of early, the 2014 Saratoga Racecourse schedule was released this past week with purses increased for the big stakes and new races added, including a New York bred day at the Spa. Both the Travers for 3-year-olds and the Whitney for older horses received significant purse increases over their 2013 levels, from $1 million and $750,000 respectively, to $1.25 million for Travers and $1.5 million for the Whitney. On Sunday, August 24 the best New York-breds will be showcased when the Spa will host the inaugural Saratoga Showcase Day; featuring the Albany Handicap, West Point Handicap. Yaddo Stakes, Fleet Indian, Funny Cide, and Seeking the Ante races. These races will be the day after the Travers Stakes. Some of the new races for 2014 are; the Shine Again for filly and mare going 7 furlongs on dirt (7/21), De La Rose also for filly & mares at one mile on turf (8/2) and the male counterpart; Lure going the same distance & surface on the same day, the Tenski on the weeds at a mile for 3 year old fillies (8/11), the Alydar for older horses going the route distance of a mile and an eighth (8/17), the Summer Colony same distance as the Alydar filly & mare counterpart (8/18) and Tale of the Cat, six furlongs for older horses sprinting (8/22). There is a stakes race everyday for the 40 day meet starting July 18th Friday through Labor Day on September 1st.

The Churchill Downs summer meet kicks off this evening with the Derby Trail at one mile (8th race, post 10pm) which at one time (long ago) was a prep race for the Kentucky Derby one week later. It's likely the #2 - Chitu will scratch and run in the Kentucky Derby next week, this makes Bayern (#1) the speed from the rail and likely favorite. Spot (#9) was no factor stretching out last time in the Florida Derby after a closing victory in the seven furlong Swale Stakes at Gulfstream Park. A longshot to use here may be Laddie Boy (#7) who set the pace on the polytrack last time out at Keeneland in the off-the-turf Transylvania Stakes and has run well over the Churchill dirt strip as a two year old. My selections for the Derby Trail - Spot (#9) , Bayern (#1), Laddie Boy (#7).

Looking forward to the Derby ....... a few things to consider

With the new Kentucky Derby format point system, horses have lined up for positions in the starting gate. We have no clear cut "favorite" this year and with the defection of Florida Derby winner; Constitution this week because of injury, another slot opened up in the field of twenty runners. As of this writing, Uncle Sigh moves into the field if he chooses to go. With two weeks out, here are a few things to consider when looking for a winner the First Saturday in May. Post positions play a big role too, but we have a little insight now with the runners we know that will race.

Lightly raced runners such as Bayern (#26) and Social Inclusion (#27) on the list are wanting to get in, but with no experience as juvenile runners they seem up against it with the history of this race. No unraced Kentucky Derby runner as a two year old has won since 1882 when Apollo did. With Constitution gone, the only contender left without two year old experience is Hoppertunity. But unlike the other mention runners who fit this criteria, Hoppertunity has had five races this year since his debut on January 4th at Santa Anita. In 1999, Fusaichi Peagsus made his debut on December 11th and broke his maiden on the 2nd day of January before winning the Kentucky Derby of 2000. He has been the closest horse to break this 131 year old jinx. He had four starts as a three year old, where Hoppertunity has had five. But, Fusaichi Pegasus was undefeated as a three year old going into the Derby. With this evenly matched group for this year's Run for the Roses, Hoppertunity rates a big chance on the First Saturday in May.

Synthetic tracks have played a big part on the Derby Trail the past few years and especially since Animal Kingdom won the Derby in 2011 first time on a "real" dirt surface. This year, we had a few reach the Derby starting gate with synthetic stake victories. We Miss Artie. Dance With Fate and Medal Count have all excelled on polytrack and the first two mention are winless on "real" dirt. Medal Count broke his maiden in a off-the-turf race at Ellis Park, his other two dirt tries weren't good. But contenders like; California Chrome, Vicar's in Trouble, Chitu, Midnight Hawk, Ring Weekend, General A Rod and Candy Boy all had either victories on that surface or in the money finishes. So, the polytrack runner can be considered on the Churchill strip in your plays.

Speed will be a major factor in this year's Kentucky Derby. Wire to wire prep race winners this year were; California Chrome (San Felipe), Vicar's in Trouble (Louisiana Derby), Wildcat Red (Fountain of Youth) and Ring Weekend (Tampa Bay Derby). These were all gate to wire victories. The question will be; who will set the pace and who will have the staying power to get the mile and a quarter distance. Front running winners of the Kentucky Derby are few and far between. You have to be a special horse to do this, is there one in this field this year? I tend to think not.

Even with the Kentucky Derby field pretty much set, there are two additional three year old preps today. While most likely none of these runners will be going to the Derby (the one exception; Midnight Hawk) these two races may produce horses to look for in the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown; the Preakness Stakes. At Hawthorne Park in Chicago, is the Illinois Derby at a mile and an eighth. The mention; Midnight Hawk (#3) gets the call here as my top pick, but if he throws in a "dud" effort most likely he will skip the Derby in two weeks. Horses to use underneath him are; King Cyrus (#5) and Global Strike (#7). Back at Keeneland, the mile and a sixteenth; Lexington Stakes has the rest of the three year olds who didn't get into the Blue Grass Stakes last week. Top pick here is; Mr. Speaker (#1) from the Shug McGaughey barn, trying the polytrack for the first time. Ami's Holiday (#7) is my second pick coming off the layoff with good synthetic form at Woodbine. Divine Oath (#6) was an also-eligible in last week's Blue Grass Stakes and tries the poly and stretches out today, he rounds out my selections.

Final Derby prep action & remembering a dear friend

It's three weeks before the big day for thoroughbred racing, on the big stage; the Kentucky Derby. The last two major prep races are this weekend, including my current favorite for this year's Run for the Roses and a big field prep which will be contested the final time on polytrack.

At Keeneland Racetrack in Kentucky, the mile and eighth Blue Grass Stakes (11th) gets a full field of 14 runners, even with one "also eligible" runner. This will be the final running of this event on a synthetic surface, since Keeneland will be going back to "real" dirt this Fall. It remains to be seen if any of this field has a legitimate shot in the Kentucky Derby on dirt. But from a wagering standpoint, this race could give you a nice bankroll for the First Saturday in May. The 3-1 morning line favorite is Bobby's Kitten (#5) trying the polytrack surface for the first time in his career. This speedy Ramsey / Brown turf runner will most likely go to the Derby with a victory today. I'll definitely go against him here at those odds with my top selection; Asserting Bear (#1) who in his last start closed in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park going this same distance on polytrack. With several speedsters entered here, his late closing kick might just work today at his 15-1 morning line odds. For 2nd, I'll go with a recent winner here last week in the off-the-turf Transylvania Stakes; Medal Count (#13). He looked sharp and drew off to win going a sixteenth of a mile shorter in only his second synthetic track start. Coastline (#11) will round out my trifecta after just missing in the above mention Spiral Stakes.

At Oaklawn Park, they are running their marquee race of the meet - the grade I Arkansas Derby at a mile and a eighth. Here I'm going with my top Kentucky Derby prospect (at this writing) Tapiture (#3). This consistent runner trained by Steve Asmussen has been in-the-money all his six lifetime starts. He got out kicked in his last start by Hoppertunity in the Rebel Stakes, but had a sharp victory coming off a layoff in the Southwest Stakes here at Oaklawn. In the runner-up spot, I'm going with the other horse who was in that photo with the other above two mentioned horses; Ride on Curlin (#4). Another consistent three year old, he was game on the inside in said above race and should be a price again. Commissioner (#6) gets one more chance today as my third selection. He has disappointed in his last two stakes starts and races at his fifth track in six lifetime starts.

On a personal note, tomorrow is the birthday of best friend; the late Frank Colvin. Frank past away last December after a long illness and our friendship span nearly forty years. Whether it was Cub Scouts or Little League in our youth or our love of collecting baseball cards and going to concerts later in life, Frank was a good friend to me throughout the years. We spent a lot of good times together in the 80's and began a partnership as D.J's in the 90's. Also like myself, Frank enjoyed wagering on the ponies and going to the races. We took many trips to Saratoga and in 2000 made a trek to Woodbine Racetrack in Toronto and Finger Lakes on our way back to the Mohawk Valley. Frank also ran a few good handicapping tournaments which were very popular with our friends in the Fort Plain / Canajoharie area. He would be the first to "bust my chops" if my selections didn't win and would call me the "king of favorites" with some of my picks. But, he would also be the first to give me credit with a "big" score, especially the day I won the Funny Cide wager from 2003 Preakness. I wanted to mention him in my column and stress that friends last forever, even though they aren't with us in body anymore. Happy Birthday Frank, miss you!

Round #2 of the MAJOR three year old prep races for Derby '14!

You know what they say; the road (you know where) is paved with best intentions. Well, the road to the Kentucky Derby can be "hell" for both owners and trainers, but the trail to get there for the horse can be a simple one, if you race those prep and win, your in! Last year, the path to the first Saturday in May changed somewhat for a horse having a spot in the starting gate among the other twenty runners. In past years, a runner had to earn graded stakes money to guarantee a spot in the starting gate. The bigger the prep race victory, the more guaranteed that your horse would be among the twenty racing.

Last year, the Derby committee changed the criteria for the three year olds to gain entrance to the Kentucky Derby. A point system was established for the intended Derby hopefuls with prep race victories, starting as two year olds (10 points), 50 points in Derby preps up to the Florida Derby and 100 points in the final major preps. This was done to put more emphasis on horses winning the prep races, than horses that won early on the trail and skipped prep races or had sub par efforts in them. Last year, the system worked great with all the prep winning horses making it to the gate for the Derby. This year is been a little different so far.

Lightly raced three year olds like; Hoppertunity. Chitu and recent Florida Derby winner; Constitution all got 100 points in recent victories and earned a spot in the starting gate. For established horses with two year old form like; Cairo Prince and Candy Boy, the story is a little different. Top rated Cairo Prince finished a rather dull fourth coming off a layoff and stands 16th on the list of 20 who will make the starting field. With only 24 points, he's going to need some help to get a place in the gate. Today, Candy Boy races in the Santa Anita Derby and he has only 10 points putting him 28th on the list. An effort like Cairo Prince's from last weekend for him, and he'll be looking on the outside in!


We have two major prep races today in New York and California. With no solid standout last weekend in both the Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby, maybe the Wood Memorial or Santa Anita Derby will give us a early Derby favorite.


At Aqueduct, 11 runners go forward in the mile and eighth - Wood Memorial with the third rematch between Samraat and Uncle Sigh. So far, Samraat has bested Uncle Sigh both times in the grade III - Withers & Gotham Stakes. Today, we are on the main track where those two previous races were on the inner-track. New shooter shippers like; Kristo from California and Florida sensation; Social Inclusion could be the main danger to the home track runners. I'm looking for a pace melt down here with the closers taking advantage. My selections for the Wood are : Kid Cruz (#1) - only winner at this distance and has won over the track. Harpoon (#4) - had a wide late rally in the Gotham and gets Johnny V. in the irons. Samraat (#8) - has had two gutsy victories here, but the added distance could be his undoing today. Aqueduct (11th) 1-4-8-11.

The Santa Anita Derby is a little more clear cut. Eight runners are entered with two maidens, turf allowance and recent maiden winner. That leaves four runners with trips over the Santa Anita strip in graded stakes competition. My top pick here goes to recent Oaklawn Park - Rebel Stakes winner; Hopperunity (#3). This is fifth start of the year, broke his maiden here and was gutsy in his last victory, closing from the outside. California Chrome (#5) - rides a three race winning streak into this race, while making his tenth career start. Candy Boy (#6) - hasn't raced since early February and needs a 1-2-3 finish today to make the Derby field of 20 runners. Santa Anita (8th) 3-5-6-7