Contenders and Pretenders

With the Kentucky Derby only 10 days away, it looks like we'll have three runners that separate themselves from the other runners; Big Brown, Colonel John & Pyro. These look like the only three that may be under 10-1 at post time the first Saturday in May. So, what to make of the other entries pointed for the race? Which ones are contenders and which are pretenders? We'll take them in alphabetical order; Adriano (contender) - although his one dirt try wasn't that good, he's bred for dirt & the Derby distance. Big Truck (pretender) - upset winner of the Tampa Bay Derby, this N.Y. showed nothing in the Bluegrass Stakes last time out. Breeding wise... it's doubtful he can get the Derby distance. Bob Black Jack (pretender) - he showed a gutsy effort in the Santa Anita Derby on the polytrack, he's another that's suspect going a mile and a quarter. Cool Coal Man (pretender) - Like Big Truck, he was no factor in the Bluegrass at Keeneland. Wonder just how good are the Gulfstream Park prep winners. Court Vision (contender) - Everbody has been knocking his Wood Memorial effort, but showed a good work with blinkers added. Cowboy Cal (pretender) - just got beat at the wire in the Bluegrass, this three year old is bred for the grass and could be a "killer" if kept on that surface. Denis of Cork (pretender) - not the route his connections wanted to go to the Derby, lack of seasoning versus tougher may be his undoing. Gayego (contender) - had no problem with dirt in the Arkansas Derby, his speed may be a factor to run with Big Brown early. Monba (contender) - although a winner of polytrack in the Bluegrass, he may be cycling back to good form at a price. Recapturetheglory (pretender) - recent wire to wire of the Illinois Derby, he could be the pace setter for the race and sacrificial lamb. Smooth Air (contender) - if you like Big Brown...you have to like this runner. Chased the "big horse" around the Gulfstream oval in the Florida Derby. Tale of Ekati (contender) - just got up in time in the Wood Memorial in his second start of the year, his consistency as a two year puts him in the "upper" half of the field of 20. Visionaire (contender) - was one of the few that closed on the Keeneland strip in the Bluegrass Stakes, may be forgotten in the wagering. Z Fortune (contender) - this N.Y. bred had a sneaky good effort in the Arkansas Derby and good gallop out. Z Humor (pretender) - got enough earnings for his two year old season to make the race, been nowhere as a three year old.