This weekend we have the first edition of the 2009 Derby pool and as usual, it has its good plays and bad ones too!
First off, the “all other three year old” entry (#24) which was the 5/2 morning line favorite, is a ridiculous 3/5 as of Thursday evening in day one of the wager. To take any three year old horse pointing to the Kentucky Derby at those odds in February would be crazy. While there is no clear-cut horse pointing to this year’s Kentucky Derby, you have to get at least 10-1 or better on the winner at this time on the derby trail.
Others that look like they are a “bet against” in pool #1 are; Big Drama (#2) who hasn’t been seen his Delta Jackpot victory in December and is rumored to have some physical issues. Midshipman (#11) last year’s Juvenile champion has yet to race in the desert, he deserves a look in pool #2 or #3 after he’s gotten a race in. Notonthesamepage (#12) this runner has the look of a sprinter, rather than a Kentucky Derby or Triple Crown distance horse. Stardom Bound (#18) the Juvenile Filly champion won her seasonal debut as a three year old and now there’s talk of racing her against the boys. First, she would have a prep race versus the boys before even thinking of racing in the Derby. Again, she may look better in the next two pools. The most glaring horse on the list of 23 to go against is This One’s for Phil (#21) The three year old runner is not even nominated to the Triple Crown events. Wagering on him in this first pool would be like throwing money away. The “other” Dubai runner; Vineyard Haven (#22) raced this past Thursday in a prep race pointing for the UAE Derby and offered little in his three year old debut. Later pools may be better for him, but it’s no guarantee he’ll even make it to the Derby.
While those horses named above are “plays against” this next list are one’s who look to have value in this pool. Beethoven (#1) was hampered in his seasonal debut at Gulfstream Park in the Holy Bull Stakes, but raced well for 4th in a wide trip. Currently with odds of 50-1 from the morning line of 15-1 in day #1 of the pool, he has two victories over the Churchill strip and is in good hands with trainer John Ward. Capt. Candyman Can (#3) current odds: 45-1 - won his seasonal debut sprinting at Gulfstream Park and looks to have a tremendous upside with two good trips over the Churchill strip as a two year old. Friesan Fire (#6) current odds: 30-1: has already won two prep races this year, more than any other horse on this list. Doubled from his morning line odds, he is a proven three year old contender already this year. One runner who I’m definitely placing a wager on in this first pool is Hello Broadway (#9) Trained by Barclay Tagg, this half brother to Nobiz Like Showbiz ran second in the Hutcheson Stakes in his seasonal debut. Currently at 56-1, he has a future with his breeding and his ultimate goal; the Kentucky Derby. A longshot play in this first round on a very underrated three year old is West Side Bernie (#23) trained by Kelly Breen. At 43-1 currently from his 50-1 morning line odds, because he’s taking money and has been consistent in all his start earns him respect in pool #1.
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