This week began "March Madness" for NCAA college basketball tournament where the expanded field of teams now totals 68. It seems that the thought is; more is better. But like with anything; when more is added to the mix, the product can be diluted. The mix of prep races along the triple crown trail has increased throughout the years and now includes special written races. We have seen this with the top two of it's major contenders this year. Two of the "quote", number one seeds; Uncle Mo and Dialed In both raced in specially written races for them the past few weeks.
Uncle Mo made his seasonal debut last weekend in a newly written race; the Timely Writer Stakes. Facing only marginally good runners, his return was a little more than a public workout and done in easy fashion. A few weeks back, Dialed In returned off his Holy Bull Stakes victory to a two-turn test at Gulfstream Park in a race written for him. There he finished a good second (behind his stablemate) and now has two starts under his belt this year. These two races for these two colts were no more than "play in" games and the real competition will come in a few weeks, the April 3rd Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park for Dialed In and the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 9th.
The "second seeds" are the up and coming runners who have already shown talent with derby prep victories. Mucho Macho Man needed his first race back when he tired as the lukewarm favorite in the Holy Bull Stakes. He then shipped to Louisiana where he bounced back to win the Risen Star Stakes at the Fairgrounds. This son of Macho Uno has raced at six tracks and will stay at the Fairgrounds to race next in the Louisiana Derby on March 26th. Then we have Sodat, trained by Kiaran McLaughlin. This son of War Front raced twice at Saratoga on "off track" surfaces and then was switched to grass for his next three starts. He returned for his three year old season at Gulfstream and won an off-the-turf event by over ten lengths. He recently came back in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and went wire to wire in victory.
The next group could be considered "Cinderella" type runners the are currently longshots, but with improvement could move up the ladder very quickly. A few of these are west coast runners to keep in mind. Silver Medallion, Anthony's Cross and Premier Pegasus. The latter was a recent impressive winner of the mile and a sixteenth; San Felipe Stakes. A Bob Baffert runner named; The Factor will ship to Oaklawn Park and will stretch out to contest the Rebel Stakes this weekend. His three year old debut was a victory in the San Vicente Stakes at seven furlongs. To Honor and Serve, ran an even 3rd in his three year old stakes debut versus Mucho Macho Man. There's also the consistent types like; Gourmet Dinner, Santiva and Stay Thirsty who won the recent Gotham Stakes going on a route on the Aqueduct Inner-track.
Then there are the horses that need to show more, but they can lay claim as realistic Derby contenders. These guys are the "high" double digits seeds. Jaycito, Brethren , Comma to the Top, Machen. They all need to step it up in their next prep races to really be considered as dangerous horses. But with good efforts, they too could pull off an upset and rise to the top. These are the "Sweet Sixteen" of the current Derby trail runners. And much like during the "March Madness" tournament, things can change quickly and the mighty can fall.
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