Saturday, November 5, 2011

The 27th Breeder's Cup World Championships ...... one man's opinion!


Today is the World Series and Super Bowl of thoroughbred racing; the Breeder's Cup. Nine championship races today with 105 horses running on both dirt and grass going seven different distances. A lot to comprehend, a lot of days going over the pre-entries. With many horses cross entered, it just makes things even tougher. It's work going over each of the fields, but well rewarded even if you hit one race with payoffs. This is what we wait for all season and here it is.

The "ladies" had their day yesterday, unfortunately the filly and mares are regulated to the first day of the championships. This was mostly likely for when Zenyatta was racing and we had the Rachel Alexandra craze. Time to put the "Ladies Classic" back on the Saturday card and return the name of the race to the "distaff". We also have to get ALL the races shown "live" The first race of today; the Breeder's Cup Marathon, will not be shown on either ESPN or ABC. Instead, it will be shown on TVG which is only available by satellite. Hopefully, locally that Capital OTB television will show the race "live" since the major networks won't.

It's my opinion that the Europeans will make a BIG impact on this year's Breeder's Cup. They have a good chance in five of the nine races today. With trainer Aidan O'Brien having more starters in this year's Cup than Todd Pletcher, this should tell you something. The "Euros" are not afraid to run in the marathon, all the Juvenile races and are "head and shoulders" the best in the grass races. Even in the dirt races, many of their runners have "dirt" breeding. It wouldn't surprise me if the horses "across the pond" win possibly a half a dozen of the championship races.

We will see some new exciting faces for sure this weekend. Young runners like; Secret Circle, Elusive Kate, Grace Hall and My Miss Aurelia (from yesterday) and State of Play , Union Rags and Creative Cause today. Renaissance runners like; Jackson Bend, Get Stormy and the NY bred; Compliance Officer lead the way of horses who have gotten better this year. But, it's the different story lines with horses and people who capture the imagination every year at Breeder's Cup time.

Can Big Drama defend his Breeder's Cup Sprint title after being lightly raced this year and missing his last prep race before today? Just how big will be the payouts in the Turf Sprint race, since there is no clear cut favorite. My guess is a exacta half a grand with a double digit payout for the winner. Just who will get the lead in the Dirt Mile which is another evenly matched race for the middle distance horses. It would not surprise me if the Europeans cover the first four spots in the Breeder's Cup Turf. The lack of North American turf runners the past few years has moved this race from the second to last, to mid-card. But, the highlight today will come down between the two female runners in the two last races.

Goldikova and Havre de Grace are looking to make history today. In the Breeder's Cup Mile, Goldikova seeks her fourth straight victory in this race. No other horse has won this many Breeder's Cup races. She still is the "horse to beat" in that race and it will be her final career start. The Breeder's Cup Classic once again will have a "ladies" flavor for a third year in a row. It's Havre de Grace, won has already beaten the boys this year. She tries to beat them again and lock up Horse of the Year honors. We have many things and angles to choose from this year and most certainly we'll get exciting results.

No comments: