Very rarely do I make analysis of a typical everyday race after it is run. The term "redboard" is used when describing what went on during the race and why the winner was victorious. We go over the major races and stake races, but seldom do I look at a everyday race, after it's run. With coming up for ideas in writing my weekly column, sometimes it's tough. This time of the year, I'm really busy with handicapping the daily races at Saratoga . With my column once a week, I talk about the upcoming stakes for the weekend or the past week's races. This weekend, the major stakes races are quiet and the past week at Saratoga kind of uneventful. So, we'll review a race ran this past week at Saratoga and my opinion on the outcome results. Hope you enjoy my "redboard" analysis.
On Thursday afternoon in the feature race, with had New York bred three year old fillies racing in the Statue of Liberty division of the New York Stallion Series at one mile on the Saratoga Inner-Turf course. Restricted to N.Y. breds who sires stand in New York , a field of nine were entered with two scratches. The first scratch drew in Stock Fund, a maiden and the other scratch was I Bet Toni Knows, who was the favorite as they went to post. In my analysis of the race; my top selection was Manero, who set the pace in her last start at Belmont Park in a similar restricted NY bred race sprinting seven furlongs on the Inner-Turf course downstate. With the expectation of one start as a three year old, she shown speed in all her turf races. Last year, before she broke her maiden, she lacked any early speed on the weeds.
Let off at solid 4-1 odds, even after the late scratch of the favorite; Manero was far back in the early running. Actually, 24 lengths off the lead at the three quarter mark of the race, only beating one horse. Then she put a furious late charge, fanned five wide as she entered the stretch. At the wire, she got beaten by a nose in a head shaking effort in my opinion. When I did my analysis in my daily selections, I looked at all her starts as a three year old, especially her last two. She shown speed on the front end, near the pace speed and ideally would be the "one to catch" in my opinion. But, in the running for some reason, jockey Jose Lezcano had her way, way off the pace. Actually, she ran like my 2nd selection; I Bet Toni Knows who was a late scratch. The winner; My Jopia had the perfect stalking trip as the slight 2nd choice and wasn't the "post time" choice over the actual one; Why Take a Chance. This cause trouble for some who used the 29-1 longshot in the finale; Warrior Up in late pick 4 plays.
But I couldn't figure out for the life of me, why Manero was not on or near the lead. It was clear that the horse was well meant with her furious close and nearly got up in victory. But, did the jockey or her connections try another plan after the late scratch of the favorite? It was very frustrating as a bettor and handicapper how the race unfolded for her. Sometimes in races when the speed needed horse, stumbles at the start and doesn't break cleanly, the trouble gets the runner a excuse for not doing well. But this time around, I couldn't have called the running by Manero today by any cost! Next time out, she'll likely be the favorite in the same or similar state bred condition. But, today was the day I need the "speedy" Manero to be victorious. Instead, I got a closing effort that EVERYONE will be betting next time out!
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