Friday, October 5, 2012

Keeneland & Belmont - Mile Turf / 2yr.old preps!


The march toward the Breeder's Cup continues today with key two year old races and turf runners pointing toward the Breeder's Cup Turf Mile. The Keeneland (7th) is the First Lady Handicap a mile on the grass for filly and mares. The race may produce a few runners for either the Breeder's Cup Mile (turf) or the Filly & Mare Turf. Here the match will be between Tapitsfly (#2) and Hungry Island (#4). Both are graded stakes winners on grass at a mile and rivals versus each other four times together this year. But, there is two dangerous opponents they will face and they are also top notch distaff turf runners. Summer Soiree (#5) is making her second start off a layoff and Daisy Devine (#6) returns off a May layoff when she had four race win streak snapped. These four will be tough here and the selections are a "box" of 2/4/5/6.

The Shadwell Turf Mile (9th) at Keeneland has possibly the BEST turf horse in the country. Wise Dan (#5) recently won both the grade I - Woodbine Mile and Fourstardave Handicap at Saratoga . He undoubtedly is the "horse to beat" here and my top selection. Horses that rate a upset chance to beat him and can be used underneath with this talented runner are; Doubles Partner (#2) coming off a short layoff, lightly raced; Corporate Jungle (#3) second behind my top pick at Saratoga, Data Link (#7) winner here in spring going this distance for Shug McGaughey and Silver Max (#10) turning back in distance and is a speedy front runner. Numbers here are: 5 with 7/10 with 2/3/11.

At Belmont , three year olds go a mile & a eighth on the weeds in the Jamaica Handicap (9th). All this spring and summer I've been high on the three year old runner named; Summer Front (#5) trained by Christophe Clement. I throw out his last race at Arlington Park in the mile and a quarter Secretariat Handicap, he does not to want to go that far and today is my top selection. Dullahan (#3) is the underlay morning line favorite at 4-5, I'll use him ONLY in my third & fourth slots. For second I'll use the lightly raced European invader; Cogito (#4) making his first U.S. start and Howe Great (#7) who has raced against my top choice this year. The numbers here are: 5 with 4/7 with 1/2/3.

Also at Belmont today are two major two year old stakes both for the fillies and colts. First in the Frizette Stakes (#7) at a mile, we have a prohibited 2-5 favorite in Dreaming of Julia (#7) who has won both of her two lifetime starts by over 27 lengths. I won't try to beat her and she'll be my top selection and likely favorite for the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies race with a victory today. Toasting (#1) is my second selection from the rail and has won at this distance, over the track in her last start. The numbers in this short field are: 7 with 1 with ALL for third & fourth positions.

The boys go in the Champagne Stakes (8th) in a short, evenly matched field with three Pletcher runners. Here I'll go with a price in Bern Identity (#6) who was third recently in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga . He was a sharp winner of the Sanford Stakes in his start before and is a nice 15-1 on the morning line. For second, I find it hard to separate the three Todd Pletcher runners; Shanghai Bobby (#2) Archwarrior (#4) and Micromanage (#7) so the numbers for this grade I event are: 6 with 2/4/7 with ALL in the 3rd and 4th spots.

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