It's Holidayfest at Aqueduct and the final BIG weekend of thoroughbred racing for 2012. With my 2nd to last column for this racing year, it's all about the handicapping... and that is my favorite part of what I've done for the last 14 years here at the Recorder. Coming off a GREAT Breeder's Cup weekend, we'll try to end the year with some good wagers, until we start looking forward to the Triple Crown season of 2013 in March of next year.
We got four graded stakes at Aqueduct today, two 2 year old races and two races for older runners. The Aqueduct 6th race is a grade II - Demoiselle Stakes for the young fillies at a mile & an eighth, in a race, that could be considered no more than a non-winners of one event. A VERY short field of six runners, with a Todd Pletcher entry (which includes Coconut Shrimp that raced Thanksgiving day and should be scratched) we get ONLY one horse who didn't break her maiden in her last start (Ruby Lips #6). The pick here is Emollient #2 who broke her maiden second time out going 7 furlongs. In a race that is wide open, she'll be my top pick with Unlimited Budget #1 , my second choice....it's a WIDE open event!
The boys are next up in the 7th race, going the same distance in the Remsen Stakes. Again we have a similar field with an Pletcher entry and a wide open field. Here, the Repole / Pletcher entry looks very tough and they will be my top selection (Micromanage & Overanalyze #1) with "class" seasoning and bigger things on the horizon next year. For 2nd, Chad Brown has a very good maiden breaker last time out by the name of; Normandy Invasion #9. Won by over 9 lengths going a mile in last start at Aqueduct, he figures here versus this group.
The grade I - Cigar Mile is up next as race #8 with a short evenly matched field. It's a perfect spot to take a chance with a very talented filly that could win top Sprinter of the Year honors with a victory here. Groupie Doll #7, comes off a convincing victory in the Breeder's Cup Filly & Mare Sprint going seven furlongs. She couldn't find an easier spot going against the boys in a spot for championship honors! Her "main danger" is the winner of this race, two years ago; Jersey Town #4. At 34-1 then, he isn't the runner that he used to be in the past, but is a classic miler and was a BIG winner for me many years ago when he broke his maiden in Gulfstream Park at 12-1. My top two horses (4-7) will be used with the 1/5/6 underneath (Stay Thirsty, Hymn Book and Coil).
We wrap up the stakes action in the 9th with Gazelle Stakes going the route distance of a mile and a eighth. I'm going with a price here and a runner that did me quite well at Saratoga this summer. Sea Island #5 won going this distance at the Spa in optional allowance company and goes from turf to dirt for today's race at 15-1 morning line odds (which she won at three starts back). Along with her in the "win" spot, I'll use Book Review #6, the probable favorite and first time going two turns and the #7 - Wandy's Girl who would be no surprise with her very impressive record of 18 career starts with 14 victories since shipping stateside.
The plays for this HOLIDAYFEST stakes cards are; a Grand Slam (6th) play (1/2 with 1/9 with 4/7 with 5/6/7) and pick 3 plays; (6th : 1/2 with 1/9 with 4/7) & (7th : 1/9 with 4/7 with 5/6/7) with win plays of Sea Hunter in the Gazelle and superfectas of 4/7 with 1/5/6 in the Cigar Mile (8th) & superfecta "key" in the Gazelle (9th)(5/6/7 with ALL in the 4th spot) ......GOOD LUCK!
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