One of the keys in finding the Derby winner is monitoring the preps races that start at the end of January and go through mid April. One thing I've noticed in recent years is the different training habits that the connections use in getting a horse to the big race. While two year old form meant a lot in the past, trainers don't push their horses as much as juveniles and tend to wait until their three year old season. Nevertheless, a horse has to go a distance he never did before (and may never do again) the first Saturday in May. With the "need for speed" it seems that the talented two year old find it tough to replicate that form the following year without some sort of hitch. My top three rated two year old of 2013 are a perfect example. The Breeder's Cup Juvenile winner; New Year's Day was injured and retired before he even raced as a three year old. Shared Belief, sharp winner of the Hollywood Futurity has not even had a recorded workout since early January and is behind the eight ball in even getting to the race. Honor Code (my personal favorite) has just gotten back on the work tab with two sharp works and still may get to the race. With these three and Breeder's Cup runner-up; Havana out with a quarter crack, we see that being "big" as a two year old doesn't hold much water these days.
Horses like Cairo Prince, Candy Boy, Tapiture, Intense Holiday all had good two year old form and even more, have won going two turns as juveniles. Proven three year olds like; Wildcat Red and General A Rod have benefited from the "speed favoring" Gulfstream strip. We'll see how these two race away from Florida in the future. The same could be said for runners like; Vicar's in Trouble at the Fairgrounds and both Samraat & Uncle Sigh outside the inner-track at Aqueduct. Runners like Midnight Hawk and Strong Mandate must bounce back from their sub-par efforts last time out, although Strong Mandate may have needed that race off the layoff. There is one colt though that has caught my eye as a three year old and on paper with his breeding, should have no problem getting that mile & a quarter distance on Derby day. The question is, will he have enough seasoning, Derby points and trip set up to win?
Shug McGaughey has another brilliant colt pointed to this race. He got the job done with Orb last year, he's got the closer; Honor Code and now he has the regally bred; Top Billing. This son of multiple Horse of the Year winner; Curlin and out of the AP Indy bred mare; Parade Queen has opened some eyes with his three efforts at Gulfstream this winter. He broke his maiden at all places, Delaware Park in December sprinting in the slop. Shipped to Florida and has a victory with two other in-the-money finishes. He like his stablemate; Honor Code are both deep closers. He narrowly missed in his first try at Gulfstream going a mile & an eighth and won next time out in that connection with a wide sweeping close from the outside coming from dead last. Last time out in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, he caught another speed favoring strip and closed for 3rd gaining ground late on the two speedsters. Most likely he'll skip the Florida Derby and ship up north to Aqueduct for the Wood Memorial on April 5th. As much as I was excited about Honor Code last Fall, I'm even more excited about this colt!
We have the Tampa Bay Derby and San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita today as preps, both two turn events at a mile and a sixteenth. My selections for the Tampa Bay Derby (11th) are; Cousin Stephen (#8) Surfing USA (#2) Vinceremos (#6) Conquest Titan (#5) For the San Felipe (#5) - California Chrome (#4) Midnight Hawk (#9) Kristo (#7) Schoolofhardrocks (#8).
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