With the new Kentucky Derby format point system, horses have lined up for positions in the starting gate. We have no clear cut "favorite" this year and with the defection of Florida Derby winner; Constitution this week because of injury, another slot opened up in the field of twenty runners. As of this writing, Uncle Sigh moves into the field if he chooses to go. With two weeks out, here are a few things to consider when looking for a winner the First Saturday in May. Post positions play a big role too, but we have a little insight now with the runners we know that will race.
Lightly raced runners such as Bayern (#26) and Social Inclusion (#27) on the list are wanting to get in, but with no experience as juvenile runners they seem up against it with the history of this race. No unraced Kentucky Derby runner as a two year old has won since 1882 when Apollo did. With Constitution gone, the only contender left without two year old experience is Hoppertunity. But unlike the other mention runners who fit this criteria, Hoppertunity has had five races this year since his debut on January 4th at Santa Anita. In 1999, Fusaichi Peagsus made his debut on December 11th and broke his maiden on the 2nd day of January before winning the Kentucky Derby of 2000. He has been the closest horse to break this 131 year old jinx. He had four starts as a three year old, where Hoppertunity has had five. But, Fusaichi Pegasus was undefeated as a three year old going into the Derby. With this evenly matched group for this year's Run for the Roses, Hoppertunity rates a big chance on the First Saturday in May.
Synthetic tracks have played a big part on the Derby Trail the past few years and especially since Animal Kingdom won the Derby in 2011 first time on a "real" dirt surface. This year, we had a few reach the Derby starting gate with synthetic stake victories. We Miss Artie. Dance With Fate and Medal Count have all excelled on polytrack and the first two mention are winless on "real" dirt. Medal Count broke his maiden in a off-the-turf race at Ellis Park, his other two dirt tries weren't good. But contenders like; California Chrome, Vicar's in Trouble, Chitu, Midnight Hawk, Ring Weekend, General A Rod and Candy Boy all had either victories on that surface or in the money finishes. So, the polytrack runner can be considered on the Churchill strip in your plays.
Speed will be a major factor in this year's Kentucky Derby. Wire to wire prep race winners this year were; California Chrome (San Felipe), Vicar's in Trouble (Louisiana Derby), Wildcat Red (Fountain of Youth) and Ring Weekend (Tampa Bay Derby). These were all gate to wire victories. The question will be; who will set the pace and who will have the staying power to get the mile and a quarter distance. Front running winners of the Kentucky Derby are few and far between. You have to be a special horse to do this, is there one in this field this year? I tend to think not.
Even with the Kentucky Derby field pretty much set, there are two additional three year old preps today. While most likely none of these runners will be going to the Derby (the one exception; Midnight Hawk) these two races may produce horses to look for in the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown; the Preakness Stakes. At Hawthorne Park in Chicago, is the Illinois Derby at a mile and an eighth. The mention; Midnight Hawk (#3) gets the call here as my top pick, but if he throws in a "dud" effort most likely he will skip the Derby in two weeks. Horses to use underneath him are; King Cyrus (#5) and Global Strike (#7). Back at Keeneland, the mile and a sixteenth; Lexington Stakes has the rest of the three year olds who didn't get into the Blue Grass Stakes last week. Top pick here is; Mr. Speaker (#1) from the Shug McGaughey barn, trying the polytrack for the first time. Ami's Holiday (#7) is my second pick coming off the layoff with good synthetic form at Woodbine. Divine Oath (#6) was an also-eligible in last week's Blue Grass Stakes and tries the poly and stretches out today, he rounds out my selections.
No comments:
Post a Comment