Three year olds ~ the best in the 2014 edition of the BC Classic

There is an old saying; "what goes around, comes around". In this case, it's a good thing. My first column of this year in March was the subject of the Triple Crown trail and three year old horses pointed to it. Spring hopes eternal for the future and eight months ago, there were over two dozen horses vying for a spot in the gate the first Saturday in May. We mention horses like; New Year's Day, Honor Code, Havana, Cairo Prince, Strong Mandate and Top Billing, all who failed to make the Kentucky Derby or even any Triple Crown races. While others like; Intense Holiday, Tapiture, Wildcat Red, General A Rod and Vicar's in Trouble all made one dance or another and without major success. When the smoke cleared though and we've reached year's end, it is the class of 2014 three year olds that stand tall in this year's biggest race; the Breeder's Cup Classic.

Of the 14 horses entered in the 20th edition of the Classic, over half of the field are three year old runners. Included is duel Triple Crown winner; California Chrome, the horse that foiled his Triple Crown bid; Tonalist, last year's two year old champion and likely Horse of the Year 2014 with a victory today; Shared Belief, the speedy; Bayern, Travers winner; VE Day, European invader; Toast of New Year and longshot; Candy Boy. Five grade I winners and two others who are grade II, a group of sophomores who face the older handicap horses that lack runners like; Will Take Charge, It's My Lucky Day, Palace Malice and Game on Dude, all retired. If any year can be the year of the three year old, this year is the year!

Who would have thought eight months ago that a horse that didn't race in the Breeder's Cup last year and didn't appear in any Triple Crown race would be the top candidate for Horse of the Year honors. But if Shared Belief wins the Classic, not only does he remain undefeated, but is the top horse in the thoroughbred world. California Chrome remains the leading candidate for top honors also, off his victories in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. We have the Cup on the west coast and it's fitting that the best thoroughbred in 2014 is also based in California. But, a east coast invader may upset the apple cart if he has anything to do with it. Tonalist who upset California Chrome's Triple Crown bid by winning the Belmont Stakes and beat older in the premier Fall race in New York (Jockey Club Gold Cup) last time out, may the one to do it. These three should be the top three betting choices.

Then there is the other four three year olds entered here. Bayern could be the one to catch, the biggest question mark with him is; does he want to go the classic distance of a mile and a quarter? His two previous tries going that long were bad. VE Day has been a second half runner who overcame the shadow of his stablemate; Wicked Strong. It was a last minute decision to enter him in this spot and has a lot to prove today versus this field. Candy Boy hasn't lived up to his expectations and it would be a major upset if he turned it around and win in this spot. That leaves the European runner; Toast of New York as the wildcard with him making his real dirt debut in this spot.
The older horses in this race seem a cut below their younger counterparts. Moreno on paper is the best of the bunch competition wise with his speed. The NY bred; Zivo is as classy as it gets with his late closing style only out of the money once in his career. Cigar Street has only two starts this year and could be any kind, but he gets the "acid test" today versus this competition. As far as the remaining runners; Majestic Harbor, Imperative, Footbridge and Prayer For Relief, are longshots at best. The 2015 20th edition of the Breeder's Cup Classic goes through the "youngsters" with my selections being; Tonalist #11 ~ Toast of New York #9 ~ Shared Belief #6 ~ California Chrome #13