The 1st 2016 Kentucky Derby Dozen .......... 2 with 10 others!

Last week, we talked about the top two leaders on this year's Kentucky Derby trail; Mohaymen & Nyquist and their possible clash in the Florida Derby a little more than a month away. Now, I have compiled the first Derby dozen of 2016 with these two leading the way. To be honest, coming up with twelve horses nine weeks out of the First Saturday in May was a bit tough. No other runners than the top two scream out, Kentucky Derby winner. We have two prep races today, the Tampa Bay Derby and San Felipe Stakes. Nearly half of the dozen (five) will be racing today, hoping to make their mark and stay on the list.



The stronger of the two races (quality wise) is the San Felipe Stakes, a prep for the final west coast Derby race; the Santa Anita Derby. Going the mile and a sixteenth distance, three contenders on the list are going here. Bob Baffert's best prospect, Mo Spirit (ranked 3rd) meets Exaggerator (ranked 5th) who ran well as a two year old and goes for the Texas Red connections of last year; the Desormeaux brothers. Add the undefeated California bred; Smokey Image (ranked 12th) and we have the best from the left coast. The remaining four entered here all rate a chance coming off either winning or in the money finishes. I'm leaning toward the runner with the most overall experience making his second start off a layoff, Exaggerator (#7). Wide open event here.



Down in Florida, the Tampa Bay Derby is the better betting race. It has the Sam Davis prep winner; Destin (ranked 10th) who is trained by Todd Pletcher versus Brody's Cause (ranked 11th) who is making his seasonal debut in this race. This son of Giant's Causeway, trained by Dale Romans ran third in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile and may be the best runner to get the mile and a quarter distance the first Saturday in May. While the west coast prep has more well known names, the Tampa Bay Derby offers betting value. The two ranked runners I'll use underneath my top two selections; Riker (#6) & Rafting (#2). My top selection makes his three year old debut and under new trainer; Mark Casse. He made his dirt debut last year in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile where he set the pace and faded late. My second selection ran a good 2nd with a wide trip in the Sam Davis Stakes. A superfecta box of 2-6-7-8 and exacta of 2-6 are the play here.



As for the remainder of the dozen, Shagaf (ranked 6th) makes the dozen with a "workman" like victory in the Gotham Stakes last week and will be headed to the Wood Memorial next and Zulu (ranked 7th) punched his ticket to the Florida Derby, running second. Both Gun Runner (ranked 4th) & Greenpointcrusader (ranked 9th) are heading to the bayou in the Louisiana Derby at the end of the month and longshot winner of the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn, Suddenbreakingnews (ranked 8th) will next start in the Rebel Stakes. Here's the complete list of Hickory Hill Hoff's ~ AT THE POST 2016 Kentucky Derby dozen with my odds and next prep start. 1) Mohaymen (4-1) ~ Florida Derby. 2) Nyquist (6-1) ~ Florida Derby. 3) Mo Spirit ~ (10-1) San Felipe Stakes. 4) Gun Runner (12-1) ~ Louisiana Derby. 5) Exaggerator (12-1) ~ San Felipe. 6) Shagaf (15-1) ~ Wood Memorial. 7) Zulu (15-1) ~ Florida Derby. 8) Suddenbreakingnews (20-1) ~ Rebel Stakes. 9) Greenpointcrusader (20-1) ~ Louisiana Derby. 10) Destin (20-1) ~Tampa Bay Derby. 11) Brody's Cause (20-1) ~ Tampa Bay Derby. 12) Smokey Image (30-1) ~ San Felipe.