REGAL RANSOM (#10) Garcia / bin Suroor 30-1
When my original pick declared from the race, I decided to go with a speed horse that is bred with stamina and landed on this longshot; upset his better regarded stablemate in the UAE Derby and can repeat that performance at huge odds; hoping he has a clear lead into the stretch and it’s to the windows!
I WANT REVENGE (#13) Talamo / Mullins 3-1
The logical “horse to beat” off his two efforts at Aqueduct after shipping from the west coast; overcame a lot of trouble in his brilliant Wood Memorial victory; has all the makings of a Derby winner….if you like a short price.
HOLD ME BACK (#5) Desormeaux / Mott 15-1
This well bred closer ran good in his last two starts (both on synthetic surfaces); one dirt try wasn’t that good though; at this price, looks better than other synthetic horses who have never raced on the “real” stuff.
FRIESAN FIRE (#6) Saez / Jones 5-1
Swept the Fairgrounds series of three year old races this year; hasn’t raced in seven weeks though, which could be a concern; may get overlooked in the wagering and does move up on a wet track.
MR. HOT STUFF (#3) Velazquez / Harty 30-1
This full brother to last year’s runner; Colonel John has no early foot & will be rallying late; could be a huge price if the race falls apart late; solid longshot play.
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DUNKIRK (#15) Prado / Pletcher 4-1
Was spectacular in his first two career starts at Gulfstream during the winter; gutsy 2nd behind Quality Road in the Florida Derby, but looked quite tired from that effort; didn’t race as a 2 yr.old is his big knock.
PIONEER OF THE NILE (#16) Gomez / Baffert 4-1
The pride of the west coast and polytrack has worked well over the Churchill strip….but, is STILL a question when is comes to race day on the “real” stuff; got burned by Colonel John last year…..it won’t happen again!
DESERT PARTY (#19) Dominguez / bin Suroor 15-1
The flagship runner of the Godolphin contingent; did his jock misjudge the stablemate last time out in the UAE Derby? Not really happy with his post draw, so downgraded him a bit.
PAPA CLEM (#7) Bejarano / Stute 20-1
Another that has made the adjustment from polytrack to dirt with his Arkansas Derby victory; could be one of the few on or near the pace. May better this rating and could full out triples & superfectas at a price.
CHOCOLATE CANDY (#11) Smith / Hollendorfer 20-1
Northern California runner has made a good account of himself in stakes on polytrack; sharp 2nd behind Pioneer of the Nile in the Santa Anita Derby & if you like him…..you MUST use this runner!
WEST SIDE BERNIE (#1) Elliott / Breen 30-1
Got to this spot from a sharp effort behind I Want Revenge in the Wood Memorial; been a hard hitter throughout his two year old campaign & has the look of runner-up type here.
MUSKET MAN (#2) Coa / Ryan 20-1
This son of Yonaguska has only been out of the winner’s circle once in five lifetime starts; he has already outrun his pedigree and has the look of a second or third tier three year old than a grade I runner.
GENERAL QUARTERS (#12) Leparoux / McCarthy
With 11 lifetime starts, he’s the veteran of the group; trained by the 74 yr.old McCarthy, he excelled on the polytrack in the Blue Grass Stakes; I think he’s a cut below the top contenders.
ADVICE (#4) Douglas / Pletcher 30-1
This stone cold closer registered both victories on synthetic track; late to the dance, he needs to step in up big time versus this group.
SUMMER BIRD (#17) Rosier / Ice 50-1
Like Dunkirk, he’s only had three starts and didn’t race as a two year old.....that’s where the comparisons end though; trainer, jockey & of course horse are all new to the Derby scene.
JOIN IN THE DANCE (#9) DeCarlo / Pletcher 50-1
Only shows maiden victory sprinting at the Spa in an off-the-turf event; he will most likely be gunning on the front end & will be nowhere at the finish.
NOWHERE TO HIDE (#18) Bridgemohan / Zito 50-1
Late, late entry to the race; amazing, but I almost picked two Hall of Fame trainers to finish last and second to last.
MINE THAT BIRD (#8) Borel / Woolley 50-1
All I know about this runner is that he ran well on the polytrack at Woodbine as a two year old…..that’s about it!
ATOMIC RAIN (#14) Bravo / Breen 50-1
Another late entry most likely for the owner connections; can’t recommend his chances at all.
FLYING PRIVATE (#20) Albarado / Lukas 50-1
The post position in this field and chances of this runner winning are at the bottom; this is a trainer that is in the twilight of his career with maybe his last derby runner.
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