Usually the final two weeks of major Kentucky Derby prep races solidify the top contenders for the big race the first Saturday in May. Occasionally a new face or longshot may pop up in one of the races. But, rarely after the Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby , Bluegrass Stakes or Arkansas Derby does the Kentucky Derby picture get more muddled. This year is the year where the current form of the major contenders and favorites got turned upside down. The trends of the past few years along the Kentucky Derby prep trail may have been a major part of this. The year’s biggest race has turned into the non-winners of two “crap shoot”possibly.
It was injury that knocked out both Premier Pegasus and Jaycito out of the Santa Anita Derby . A well known trainer; Bob Baffert emerged with a new face longshot in Midnight Interlude. The mighty Uncle Mo , went down in flames as one of the biggest upsets in Kentucky Derby prep race history. But, the one/two finishers of the Wood Memorial (Toby’s Corner & Arthur’s Tale) did figure though for a $158 exacta. The Bluegrass Stakes has been an after thought in recent years and especially now that it’s run on the polytrack surface. Again this year, it was “longshot” city with Brilliant Speed (19-1) and Twinspired (24-1) for $655 exacta, $6,000 triple and $129,000 superfecta. And the Arkansas Derby that was to showcase the “speedy” The Factor, had become another victim to a price horse in Archarcharch (25-1). Throw in one of Todd Pletcher’s “third” stringers in the Illinois Derby (Joe Vann) and we have the biggest overall prep race mess for the favorites in years!
Is this outcome from the Kentucky Derby prep races a result of lack of trainers pushing their horses as two year olds with limited races this year? Or is the crop of three year olds much like what we’ve seen the past few years with a rather weak group? Or even more, have we overestimated the talent of horses like; Uncle Mo and The Factor? It could be a little of each of these things.
Uncle Mo is a good horse, his races as a two year old were outstanding and nobody in the group so far has matched his talent. But, the road he took this year as a three year old raised “white flags” and the result was the third place finish in the Wood Memorial. Now with an excuse because he suffered an intestinal sickness after the race, the question whether he’ll be anywhere near 100% in two weeks may keep him out of the race. The Factor wasn’t thought of as a “derby contender” early in the season. But when he stretched out in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park and won much the best, the Derby “fever” caught hold. But, his ride in the Arkansas Derby wasn’t the best of trips and trying to “rate” him off the front end was a complete disaster. It looks like now; he may not run at all also.
Only Dialed In, trained by Nick Zito has weathered this storm. He and Toby’s Corner (along with the The Factor) are the only three year olds to win two prep races along the Derby Trail. Comma to the Top has been consistent as they come, but has yet to win a race on a “natural” dirt track. Look’s like he’ll have distance limitations too. Soldat, Stay Thirsty and Santiva were solid contenders, but now have shown “chinks” in their armor too and their last starts. Toby’s Corner, Macho Mucho Man, Archarcharch and Pants on Fire are solid runners who may play a role off their recent victories. Maybe it will be the “new” faces like Midnight Interlude, Nehro or Master of Hounds that could upset the apple cart at big odds. But with what has happened this year leading up to the first Saturday in May, the grade I – Kentucky Derby may be no different than a run-of-the-mill; non-winners of two allowance race. Today’s Kentucky Derby isn’t your dad’s Kentucky Derby !
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