The results of last weekend's two major Kentucky Derby prep races usually bode well for horses that are key contenders for the first Saturday in May. But this year with the stunning defeat of Uncle Mo in the Wood Memorial and the defection of the two favorites in the Santa Anita Derby (Premier Pegasus and Jaycito), the role of favoritism for the "Run for the Roses" is now wide open. It's beginning to look like the role of "super horse" by Uncle Mo has revealed chinks in his armor.
Undefeated going into the grade I stake race in New York , it looked like he would have his way versus this group of runners he faced. But, the racing gods of upset prevailed again and his third place finish may now have an excuse. Numerous blood test were taken earlier this week and a gastrointestinal tract infection was found which may impact his chances in running at Churchill Downs . At this point, he'll continue to train and ship to Kentucky on April 18th. A week ago, he was the "horse to beat" and now may not make the race. Funny how things change overnight in the sport of thoroughbred racing.
Things became more complicated also on the west coast when the two leading contenders for the race were early post time scratches. This left the door wide open and it was Bob Baffert who took advantage of it. His recent maiden breaker; Midnight Interlude was the upset winner and this outcome was a similar result with no clear cut west coast leading contender. We thought that the two winners from last weekend's prep races would join Dialed In as top contenders the first Saturday in May. As of now, Nick Zito's runner is STILL the leader of the group. Today, we have two more major prep races at Oaklawn Park and Keeneland. There may be one runner though that may come to the forefront if he runs the same race as he did in his last start.
There are 13 runners entered in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park this afternoon, but one is "head and shoulders" above the rest. The Factor (#3), who is also trained by Bob Baffert is the morning line favorite and quite speedy. After winning two straight sprinting at Santa Anita Park, he shipped to Oaklawn and stretched out in the Rebel Stakes last time out. There he was a "wire to wire" winner and his comment line was "unopposed; accelerated". If he runs the same race today going a mile and an eighth, he just may supplant Dialed In as the early Kentucky Derby favorite. Two of his main opponents are drawn just inside of him in the starting gate. Nehro (#1) and Elite Alex (#2) both were running late most recently in the Louisiana Derby . They may have the best shot with their running style behind the front running speed of The Factor. I see the race between these three horses (#1-2-3) and throw in longshot and newly trained Nick Zito runner; Truman's Commander (#7) and you might some decent bucks in this very good betting race.
The Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland is contended on a synthetic racing surface. Twelve runners are entered here in this wide open event. But since this stake has had a change of surface the past few years, the winners have had little bearing on the Kentucky Derby . In fact, you have to go back 20 years for the last winner of this race to win the Derby (Strike the Gold - 1991). Nevertheless, there should be a runner or two coming out of this race and heading to Louisville in a few weeks. I'll chose a few longshots in this race with my top selection; Crimson China (#11). In his last start, he closed late in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park as the favorite. Today, he stretches out a little more and at 10-1 morning line is a nice price. The two Canadian based horses I'll also use and both are trained by Todd Pletcher. Sensational Slam (#6) and Queen'splatekitten (#12) have the experience on polytrack and both sport good morning line prices (10 & 12-1). Throw in the morning favorite; Santiva (#3) and there is your "possible" superfecta box!
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