I've been told by people who know me that, I'm not afraid to state my opinion or speak my mind. It sometimes gets me in trouble. But tell them, it's just my opinion and that's all it is, take it for what it's worth. Whether it's politics or the sport I love; thoroughbred racing, everybody's got an opinion. As a public handicapper, I give my "opinion" every nine races or more. Sometimes I'm right and other times, I'm not. But when your passionate about a subject or thing, you'll make your point and often there will be people who disagree. This week, I have an opinion about a certain Kentucky Derby hopeful. This horse is very talented and can prove a lot this season. But the direction he is going, could be a wrong one and is the case of " Derby Fever" one of the most common infections this time of year.
The runner I'm talking about is Trinniberg, a three year old colt trained by Bisnath Parboo and most recently won the Bay Shore Stakes at Aqueduct and Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park both at the sprint distance of seven furlongs. He has started seven times in his career, all sprinting and has won three times with two second place finishes. In all his starts, but one, he has made the lead and flashes quick speed. He is a top sprinter this year and was possibly being pointed for the Preakness Stakes off his two stakes victories. But, his connections got the dreaded " Derby Fever" and now will be contesting the Kentucky Derby , one week from today. Good decision? well, this public handicapper thinks not and going to this race may hurt him and ruin his talent in the long run.
The Kentucky Derby is a mile and a quarter grueling race, that can make or break a young three year old runner. A speedy horse like this one, only knows one way to go and that is on the front end. From the chute, horses race down the Churchill Downs stretch the first time around in the derby. He'll be "winging" on the front end with his brilliant speed. I envision the Kentucky Derby of twenty six year's ago in 1986, when another very fast three year old; Groovy, blazed on the front end until the six furlong mark and then stopped. I remember seeing Groovy very quickly backing up and finishing dead last in the field of 16 that year. Groovy became a very good sprinter after that race, even though he wheeled back after that Derby effort in the Preakness and finished second to last after being used in the pace. The one BIG difference here with Trinniberg is, he has NEVER raced beyond seven furlongs. Where at least Groovy finished 3rd going two-turns at a mile & an eighth in the Wood Memorial before the Kentucky Derby .
Trinniberg's sire, Teuflesberg was a pretty good sprinter himself a few years back for trainer Jamie Sanders. He had a great foundation as a two year old in 2006 with 11 starts and as a three year old in 2007, when he raced beyond a mile. But ,was a well beaten 17th in the Kentucky Derby and returned sprinting after that effort. He also was bred for sprinting and this element is best suited for his off spring. The fact that Trinniberg hasn't tried beyond sprinting going into the Derby , disturbs me the most. Since he is so fast and the fractions for this race are usually very quick, will spell doom for him in my opinion. It doesn't make sense to take a very fast horse and put him in a spot where he is trying something for the first time versus 19 other horses. He may get the lead, but he'll have plenty of company doing it. He's an unknown factor stretching out, but this isn't the company or place to do it. It's a bad idea for his connections to put their nice three year old in this spot. Hopefully in doing this, it won't hurt him in the long run or ruin his career. We shall see.
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