Friday, April 20, 2012

Class of 2012 is much like the epic class of 2007

Last weekend was the final round of major prep races on the road to this year's Kentucky Derby . The "logical" horses were the top two finishers in both the Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby . The Dale Romans trained; Dullahan ran down the "white knight" Hansen near the finish after a unprepared start and stamped his ticket to Louisville . As the second choice in the betting, he has shown his best efforts of turf and synthetic surfaces. The race was not without some pre-race controversy, when the owner of Hansen wanted to dye the tail of his nearly white colt, a different color. This wasn't the first time that his connections wanted to do this. Needless to say, Hansen ran his usually front running effort, but seems to "hit the wall" going over the one mile distance.


At Oaklawn Park , trained Bob Baffert came loaded for bear with his two runners; Secret Circle and Bodemeister. In the end, the lightly raced Bodemeister had a "Curlin" like effort in winning as much the best. The son of Empire Maker earned enough graded stakes money to get a spot in this year's Kentucky Derby off this visually impressive victory. Meanwhile, Baffert's other runner; Secret Circle drifted out in the stretch and since has come up with an injury and is off the Derby trail. Nothing in the two races were a surprise and the group of three year old runners headed to this year's Kentucky Derby is very evenly matched.



Nearly half of this year's group has won important graded stake prep races along the Kentucky Derby trail. It reminds me of five year's ago in 2007 when a similar talented class make a memorable Triple Crown series. That year, the 9-2 favorite was Street Sense, who won the race. The horse this year that reminds me of him is Union Rags; who won the Fountain of Youth Stakes impressively and had a troubled trip in the Florida Derby . But, also had the good 2 year old foundation with solid winning efforts. The speedy runner-up in 2007 was Hard Spun and this year, Take Charge Indy enters a similar effort in the Florida Derby where he went gate to wire. The "now" horse five year's ago was Curlin who won the Arkansas Derby in the same impressive style. It's Bodemeister this year, but his style is loose on the lead, front running. The "bet" of the Todd Pletcher runners in 2007 was Scat Daddy who had good form heading into the first Saturday in May. This year; Creative Cause mirrors his same efforts on the west coast. Hopefully though, Creative Cause will have a better effort than Scat Daddy's 18th place finish as the 3rd betting choice. Any Given Saturday was a consistent runner leading up to the Derby that year and Alpha fits his billing this year. Looking at the closing type runner, Tiago came from the clouds and the Blue Grass winner this year; Dullahan has the same running style. Another "now" type horse that year was Nobiz Like Showbiz and was bet down in the Derby . Maybe the Todd Pletcher trainee, Gemologist could be a similar horse with a bright future. And last but not least, our speedy white knight; Hansen should be on the front end as far as he goes. But, will he be backing up much like Stormello did in the 2007 edition from his outside post. For his followers, hopefully not! The 2012 group has plenty in common with that nice class of 2007 and that group was the best in this decade. So, after several lackluster three year old groups, this year things could be looking up and really brightly!

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